2016-05-29

CNY Tumbles, 2016 Low Approaches, 6.80 Line in Sand Looms

Bloomberg: Yuan Extends Weekly Decline as PBOC Weakens Fixing to 2011 Low

10 days ago: Bear Market Rally Over, Yuan Set to Tumble as Fed Fuels Dollar Rally. The market thinks a July hike is coming, not June, as it seemed the Fed was telegraphing back then.

Elsewhere, FT: A weaker renminbi leaves investors unfazed — for now
If last August and January of this year showed how the world tends to catch a cold when China sneezes, this week’s muted reaction to Beijing pushing its currency lower suggests the market has been dosing itself up on antibiotics.
The market is calm because the market is calm. CNY is already near its 2016 low, it could set a new low by the close today. If there's any volatility, the yuan is going to have a 6.6 handle before it stats, and every tick down will be a new 5-year low. If the breakout from a saucer consolidation phase is similar to the move in late 2015 and into 2016, it could bring the first test of 6.80.

No comments:

Post a Comment