6 China Economic Trends in 2017: Xinhua

iFeng: 2017年中国经济六大看点 房地产呈现一大趋势
【Economic growth remained stable】

In 2016, the face of greater downward pressure on China's economic growth rate of the first three quarters of stability at 6.7%, a strong rebuttal of the so-called China's economic collapse. 2017, steady progress is still the overall tone of China's economic work. Experts believe that China's economy will not "hard landing", positive fiscal policy continues to play a role.

"China's high economic growth and government effective macro-control will ensure stable growth of the economy, the growth of gold content will be significantly improved." Development Research Center of the State Council macroeconomic research department researcher Zhang Liqun said.

Xingzhi Zi, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, believes that next year the real estate investment or sales will be a certain degree of decline, and infrastructure investment will be partially offset by the adverse effects of real estate on economic activities.

【Deepening the supply side structural reform】

December Central Economic Work Conference held that next year is the structural reform of the supply side of the deepening of the year. Experts believe that to further improve the basic economic system and speed up the pace of reform of the management of these two aspects of the reform worth the wait.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Yu Yongding pointed out that the supply side of the structural reform and macro-control is equally important. Without the supply side structural reform, China's economy can not be sustained and stable growth; without macroeconomic regulation and control, can not supply side structural reform to win the necessary time and space for development.

"From a global perspective, China's advantage lies in the room for reform." Xing Ziqiang said.

Experts said that the focus of next year's basic reform, including state-owned enterprises, finance and taxation, finance, land, urbanization, social security, ecological civilization, opening up.

【Monetary policy to maintain sound】

Since the beginning of this year, China's central bank has used only one down-cut tool, even though economic growth has not recovered. Next year, monetary policy will remain stable.

Experts believe that the focus of monetary policy may shift from steady growth to risk, but does not mean that monetary policy tightening in full, but in a prudent monetary policy as the main theme, based on monetary policy easing path will change, More use of reverse repurchase, medium-term short-term lending facilities to facilitate monetary policy tools to achieve loose effect, while effectively preventing excessive credit growth.

Monetary policy committee member Huang Yiping pointed out that next year China's economic downward pressure is still large, monetary policy depends on the direction of economic growth next year; Depreciation also constrained the monetary easing.

【RMB will not devalue】

In the second half of 2016, especially after the "11", the RMB against the US dollar depreciation trend, triggering "broken seven" worries. Experts said that the RMB does not have to worry about excessive depreciation, exchange rate fluctuations, even if there is a short-term overshoot, China has the ability to overcome the impact it brings.

Yu Yongding that China's current account surplus in the world first, the forefront of economic growth, there are huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls, such a country's currency devaluation in the history of the world economy there is no precedent.

From the economic development trend, the RMB in the international currency which is still in a strong position, the recent exchange rate adjustment is the over-overestimation of the RMB repair.

【Real estate market steady development】

October this year before and after the start, real estate regulation due to city policy, to promote the hot city property market cooling. Experts said that next year the real estate market is expected to maintain steady development of investment in real estate development in general to maintain this year's level of growth.

As regulators intensify efforts to control financial leverage, curb investment speculative buyers, real estate sales growth will decline this year. But on the basis of urbanization, rigid and improved type of demand to buy a house next year will continue to promote the real estate market sales.

【"China engine" to continue to force】

The current world economic recovery is weak, the aging of the population, the gap between rich and poor and other long-term problems have not been resolved, the fourth industrial revolution has not really shape. Although China is no longer high-speed growth, but 6.5% to 7% of the GDP growth rate is still the world envy, the roar of the "Chinese engine" is still continuing to steadily promote world economic growth.

"In this context, the next year the world economy can continue to gradually out of the plight of the development trend, will be more dependent on China's economic pull in the new situation, China will become a more important economic globalization driving force. Zhang Liqun said.

In addition, the surveyed experts believe that, as the world's top two economies, the 2017 Sino-US economic and trade relations worthy of attention.

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