During the period of 2015-2016, with the relaxation of the housing market regulation policy, the sales of the housing market in China's hotspots gradually recovered and became hot, and the inventory was effectively changed. October 2016, steel, building materials and other real estate industry showed a certain degree of improvement in the upper reaches of the real estate terminal demand for stimulating investment in the national economy is beginning to take shape.
However, at the same time, the rapid warming of the housing market not only increased the burden of urban residents to purchase housing and repay the mortgage, but also may accumulate a higher risk for the bank credit system. To prevent the real estate overheating may lead to financial risks, from 2016 onwards have introduced a series of intended to curb the real estate bubble restriction, limited credit and other regulatory policies.
In the three rounds of national household sample surveys (2011, 2013, 2015) conducted by the China Family Financial Research and Research Center (CHFS) in Southwest University of Finance and Economics, the micro-economic data on household income, housing and credit conditions were obtained. On this basis, Data analysis of the development of housing loans to Chinese families, trying to sort out the development of housing loans, growth sources and various types of family solvency, identify the current housing loan potential risk groups and their size, clear grasp of the current housing The actual situation of loans and development trends provide a reference.
In recent years, the balance of housing loans continued to grow rapidly, from 6.8 trillion in June 2011 to 16.6 trillion in June 2016.The number of Chinese households with mortgages increased 36 percent from 2011 to 2015:
China's housing loan balance growth is partly due to the increase in the number of households with mortgages, on the other hand is due to the home loan balance of home loans increased, while the average loan growth is an important reason for the accelerated growth of the mortgage.There's a lot of data in the article breaking down the mortgage data, but let's cut to the chase, credit risk:
According to the China Center for Family Financial Research and Research (CHFS) of the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, the proportion of households with outstanding home loans in China rose from 6.9% in 2011 to 9.4% in 2015.
According to the calculation of the proportion of households with mortgage households, we found that in 2013 the number of households with mortgage increased by 23.1% compared to 2011, 2015 compared to 2013 increased by 12.8%. In addition, the end of 2013 the total amount of mortgage balance increased 37.3% compared to 2011, the end of 2015 the total amount of mortgage balance increased by 44.7% compared to 2013.
If the total amount of mortgage balance in each year divided by the year the number of households with mortgages, get a home loan balance of household loans. This figure increased from 244,000 yuan in 2011 to 340,000 yuan in 2015. Moreover, in July 2014 began to loosen the control policy and a new round of housing prices in 2015 before the 2011-2013, the average loan balance of home loans is relatively slow growth; in the policy of relaxation and a new round of housing prices cycle, In 2015, the balance of loans per household showed a leaping acceleration.
According to the CHFS data, the ratio of households with pay-to-income ratios to within 0.5 was 82%, with households between 0.5-0.75 accounting for 6.3% and households with 0.75-1 for 2.9%. In addition, there is a family income ratio of 8.9% higher than 1, that is, the current income is lower than the mortgage repayment, must rely on deposits or other sources of funds to repay.The conclusion:
...According to existing research, falling incomes are the biggest contributor to mortgage defaults. To further identify households at risk, we need to assess the income stability of this potentially risky group. From CHFS2013, in the last two years, 56% of households in this group have lost more than 50% of their income, 13.8% of family income fell 10%-50%, 11.2% of household income is stable between positive and negative 10%, 5.7% of household income rose 10%-50%, and 13.3% of household income rose more than 50%. We defined income reductions of over 10% over the past two years as income-insecure people, accounting for 69.8% of potential risk groups.
If the definition of this part of the mortgage burden of high and unstable income groups for the risk groups, the risk groups accounted for the proportion of all households with 7.8% of the mortgage, the total mortgage accounted for 7.0% of the total social credit.
This part of the family can rely on the existing financial assets remaining loans only 6.87%, and the remaining 93.13% can not rely on existing financial assets to support the repayment of loans. And can not rely on financial assets to support loans also completed the family, up to 70% of the family can only rely on financial assets to support a month or less, the funds are more tense. If the further definition of financial assets can not support the remaining mortgage repayment and can only support the bank within one year of the family for risk groups, this group accounted for 5.05% of all mortgage families, the total mortgage accounted for 3.71% of the total.
According to the comprehensive evaluation of the income ratio, the mortgage income ratio and the stability of household income, we believe that the proportion of households with mortgage in the country at present has reached 7.8%, and the total amount of mortgages in the whole society The proportion of the total is 7.0%. This part of the family can rely on the existing financial assets remaining loans only 6.87%, and the remaining 93.13% can not rely on existing financial assets to support the repayment of loans. And can not rely on financial assets to support loans also completed the family, 69.7% of families rely on financial assets can only support a month or less, the funds are more tense. This part of the higher risk of family reimbursement, a certain amount of financial risks, need attentioniFeng: 中国住房信贷报告：房贷风险来自7.8%的中低收入人群