Second Age of Globalism Ending

Chinese Access to U.S. Semiconductor Industry May Be Curbed
The report, being prepared by President Barack Obama’s chief science adviser and due to be published before he leaves office this month, will include recommendations aimed at bolstering protection of an industry deemed critical to national security, according to people familiar with the study.
The logic of this action is not significantly different from the logic of slowing global trade, if one is basing the decision on national security grounds. The more resources China has, the more resources it can apply to a problem. If China is enough of a threat to be denied access to U.S. technology, it's enough of a threat to sacrifice a small amount of American GDP growth to create a larger slowdown in Chinese GDP growth. If China is put on a trajectory of slower growth, it will never catch the United States economy. (
The Logic of Strategy: Yuan Devaluation and the Road to Trade War)

Furthermore, if you believe war in East Asia is likely at some point because China's rise will not be peaceful, then it is far more logical to slow China's growth and forestall a war from ever taking place. Or, more pessimistically, the Chinese will do the math and realize they must strike early or never. If war is coming, better to fight when the United States maintains a significant military advantage.

It's not hard to see how a chain of bad decisions manifests rather quickly, and the Democrats creation of a Russia panic over the past two months shows it would be trivial to create mass anti-Chinese hysteria if both Republicans and Democrats are on the same page. China's recent history with anti-Japanese riots and anti-KFC riots shows the same is true there.

China and the United States fighting is a great outcome for Russia. Russian-American relations may improve surprisingly fast under Trump.

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