Beijing February Home Sales Tumble, Prices Slightly Lower

Caijing: 2月北京楼市成交量大幅下滑 房价微幅下跌
February of this year, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the property market turnover showed a significant decline. Chain home data show that second-hand housing turnover decreased significantly 54.9% Central, down 73.5% year on year, average price stability, the chain fell slightly 0.5%, down 8.6%.

I love my family Group Market Research Institute data also show that in February 2018, the city of Beijing second-hand residential total net sign 7361 sets, the chain fell 30.1% in January, down 39.5% from February 2017, the net sign in the past a During the year, only higher than in July and October 2017, at a lower level.

East Money: 2月北京二手房环比下跌33% 两会后北京房价或稳中有降
February of this year, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, the Beijing property market turnover showed a significant decline. According to the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission data, second-hand housing transactions in Beijing in February 2018 7914 sets, down 32.6%. Since the 3.17 New Deal, Beijing second-hand housing market continued to cool down, turnover has been relatively sluggish.

...In terms of prices, Beijing's second-hand housing fell 0.6% MoM in January 2018, down 3.1% YoY, according to National Bureau of Statistics. Beijing second-hand housing since May 2017 has dropped continuously. February 28, CITIC BankHas halted the personal housing mortgage loan of more than 2 million yuan in Beijing. In the meantime, mortgage rates of major banks also fluctuated to varying degrees. Among them, the interest rate of the first four suites in Beijing was at least as low as 5%. Stopping individual housing mortgage loans, raising mortgage rates, Beijing buyers buy a house to increase costs.
I don't see Spring Festival playing a large role in falling sales since the holiday landed on February 8 in 2016.

Another report didn't buy the holiday explanation and took a more bearish interpretation.

CE.cn: 北京新房2月份成交量创新低 共有产权房占比近半
According to the data from the Market Research Institute of I love my family, in February 2018, a total of 1,162 sets of newly-built commercial houses (excluding social security houses) were net-signed in Beijing, down 34.4% from January and 57.4% from February 2017, setting a record. New low.

  It is noteworthy that in the above 1162 sets of Signed, 568 sets for the joint property room, accounting for 48.9%, showing that the total property ownership room is to support the Beijing New Housing market in February the main volume of transactions. In fact, the property ownership room will become the main transaction force for implementing the new housing market in Beijing in 2018.
For background on the joint property scheme, here's SCMP from last year: Beijing proposes ‘joint property ownership’ scheme to help cool prices and allow more onto the property ladder
The so-called “jointly-owned homes”, promise to be China’s equivalent of what the UK market for instance calls “shared-ownership” or “help-to-buy” properties, which allow residents to own portions, along with the government, essentially giving buyers the chance to get on the property ladder when they previously couldn’t afford to.

A self-occupied home wholly owned by individuals will not have to pay a share of the rent with the government if they put the property up for lease, but they do have to pay 30 per cent of capital gains tax if they resell the property.

...Since demand will come from mostly from medium-low income households, analysts fear, however, low-end homes, mostly in secondary markets, could be negatively affected, while the new homes market, dominated by high-end products, will be left unscathed.
Remember that in order for developers to profit on expensive land sales in 2016 and 2017, they have to sell high-end and luxury homes. The sales data from Beijing shows the low end was at least 50 percent of sales in February, in a month that was a record low in sales.
Source for chart: 北京三季度新房成交量创5年新低:平均卖6套二手房,才有一套新房成交

Sales are expected to rise as the joint ownership plan increases supply, but that is not bullish for average transaction prices:
Hu Jinghui said that in addition to the common property room, the supply of commercial housing has also increased substantially in Beijing's five-year land supply plan. In the next five years, Beijing will secure 1.5 million housing construction needs, of which 1 million property ownership housing and rental housing 500,000 sets. As a result, transactions in Beijing's new home market are expected to come out of the doldrums in 2018 and beyond.

No comments:

Post a Comment