Local and National Government Real Estate Data Conflicts; Guangzhou Hides the Decline

Guangzhou's local data said home prices rose 2.1% in May. National data said prices were flat. Who is right? Analysts side with the national data's sampling methods due to the local government's decision to "hide the decline" with price limits. Furthermore, the local governments have been toying with their sampling/calculations for some time. Previously, they sought to hide rising prices using similar policies.

官方数据打架引悬疑 一线城市房价“假涨真跌”
Editor's Note:

Suddenly, in June will also be coming to an end, the attendant is six months housing prices in major test. Hi, or worry, the answer will be announced very soon. A few days ago, two groups of "fight" Guangzhou price data aroused attention and thinking. Also comes from the "official", why prices rose a larger statistical difference? Even if we do not get to the bottom and there's reasons, but a lot of housing prices began to busy up. Or feel the speed differentiation of the real estate industry, in order to be able to feel better the next day, the small housing prices have begun to transfer of ownership, by the Equity Exchange to ease the financial pressure. June 20 in Nanjing, land auctions will be held, and continued a month ago deserted ...... together a series of fragmented information, or to make this summer full of "cool."

Recently, the two were "fighting" the situation published by the official agency price data, allowing buyers to the truth of the Guangzhou property market even more confused.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics data show that in May Guangzhou, home prices rose to zero; while the Guangzhou Land and Housing Bureau statistics have shown, the same month in Guangzhou prices rose 2.1%, the third consecutive month highs.

Guangzhou property market in the end is a "fake up" or "really down"? In this regard, a number of people in the industry to accept the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said the data "fight" is mainly due to the different statistical sample, the survey sample NBS closer to real market conditions, sources of data by the Housing Authority Larger "limit" confounding factors, so even first-tier cities also entered a substantive stage price, price data is also showing "real or fake up" trend.

The official price data "fight"

"Daily Economic News" reporter finishing Guangzhou Land and Housing Bureau's monthly publication, "the real estate market briefing," found that since February this year, Guangzhou prices for 3 consecutive months of rose. Data show that from March to May this year, the Guangzhou net signed new residential average price rose to more than 10.4%, respectively, 1.5%, 2.1%.

The National Bureau of Statistics released May 70 large and medium cities data show that from March to April this year, the Guangzhou new residential price rose just 0.4% MoM and 0.1% MoM in May Guangzhou housing prices rose to zero.

In fact, similar data "fight" is not uncommon. In December last year, for example, the National Bureau of Statistics data show that the price of new housing in Guangzhou month rose 0.7% MoM, an increase of 20.4%. But Guangzhou City Housing Authority reports have shown that the average monthly net signed new homes rose 0.4% qoq, down 12.9%.

Reporters found that the other first-tier cities have experienced a similar situation. Shenzhen, for example, the National Bureau of Statistics data show that in May new housing price in Shenzhen chain fell 0.2%, but the Shenzhen Planning and Land Committee website data show that in May the average transaction price of residential houses in Shenzhen 23,981 yuan / square meter, up 1.1% .

"Fight" or because of market policy

Huang Tao, general manager of the project department Centaline told reporters, as the National Bureau of Statistics and the survey sample different local housing authorities, coupled with last year's local government price control targets under pressure from the intent to curb price rise of data, resulting in both official data. " fights. "

"Formulated by the National Bureau of price data, is drawn toward the same type of real estate is similar to the same unit as the samples to the actual price of real estate statistical data, to more realistically reflect the market conditions, but the Guangzhou City Housing Authority is a network contract The transaction data for statistical sample, since the introduction of stringent Guangzhou 'limit' policy last year, resulting in a large number of properties taken to 'double contracts' administration to circumvent price limits, and many more are being suspended expensive dish network to sign, triggering price data serious distortion. "Huang Tao said.

Last April, in order to curb soaring prices at the time the momentum, the Guangzhou City Housing Authority issued a notice requiring the reporting pre-sale real estate prices are too high and does not accept the guidance of the housing authority to withhold the issuance of the pre-sale permit, exceeding the declared value of sales suspend the signing of the online real estate sales contracts.

Since then, more and more developers using "double contract", that buyers tend to buy a house when the contract is a formal "real estate sales contracts", while the other one is based on "renovation contract" or "renovation upgrade contract "or even" change spreads and house decoration standard package of value-added service fees "and other names reflect, add up the two contracts is paying back the housing price.

Huang Tao told reporters that since last November, "limit" policy of gradual deregulation. With increasing pressure the market this year, from March, "limit" deregulation spread to the city, due to the phenomenon of double contract significantly reduced, while a large backlog of last year in the last two months focused on high-priced dish network signed in disguise to improve the real estate The network signed price is driven by the Housing Authority's housing prices rose significantly mainly due to the data.

Line prices "True or false rise"

Centaline Dawei, chief analyst believes that in the case of the overall property market cooling, price policy in the second half of 2013 first-tier cities gradually been strictly enforced is not suitable for the current market conditions, the current rise in the city can maintain fewer. Even industry also believes that first-tier cities, there have been significant cooling phenomenon, and spread a wave of price cuts in the first-tier cities.

Guangzhou, for example, the "Daily Economic News" reporter actually visited found that the peripheral region fierce wind getting lower prices, following in Panyu Vanke Opal sale price of three to open the same market area renowned Agile Cambridgeshire launched this month 100 sets of special units, the rough price of 12,000 yuan / square meter, compared with pre-unit price of the disc straight down 30%.

"Although Guangzhou City Housing Authority released data show that prices are rising, but it is only a true reflection of last year, prices rose from Guangzhou, the current price of the new disc peripheral region of 15% of the decline has occurred, the individual projects to clean poop more the emergence of a 30% decline, driven by lower prices in Guangzhou property market entered a substantive stage. "Huang Tao said.

CRIC study shows that six months ago and a half, closing an area first, second and fourth-tier cities, respectively, year on year decline of 22%, 27% and 35% in the four first-tier cities, Beijing and Shenzhen turnover year on year decline were 51% and 64%, Guangzhou and Shanghai and then rose by 7% to 25%.

Hopefluent Le Jiang, chief market analyst believes that line the city itself has a strong demand for support, round downside is subject banks to tighten mortgage more impact. Optimistic estimates, the current round of downward adjustment in property prices is expected at the end of this year.

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