Shenzhen Vacancy Rate Estimated At 85%; Centaline Says Prices Will Be Cut in September and Last For 3 Years

In Shenzhen, new home sales fell 50% yoy and 13% mom in May, but prices were up 1% from April. One third of existing home sales are by government officials. The big number attracting attention though is an estimate of property vacancies. Using data on the number of electricity customers, one estimate puts the vacancy rate in Shenzhen at 85%. A student in 2011 estimated the vacancy rate at 43% using lighting and water data from a sample of properties. However, according to the article below many illegal homes are built in Shenzhen and thus may share electric meters with legal homes. This news has Chinese netizens discussing whether first-tier real estate markets such as Shenzhen are really in better shape.

The second article below is a public call by Centaline for Shenzhen real estate prices to fall in September and for the price cuts will last for 2 to 3 years. As I noted earlier today in the post on weak sales in Beijing, April-May and September-October are the two main periods for home sales. Major developers might try to wait out the summer doldrums and see if there isn't a government rescue before September, but if the market hasn't recovered by then, that's when a big wave of cuts is likely to come. This will only amplify the "wait and see" attitude of buyers though, since they are well aware of real estate rage and don't want to be the next victim by buying during the summer, only to see prices slashed in September or October. With Centaline giving voice to expectations of price cuts, the Shenzhen market may see an unseasonably cool real estate market this summer.

深圳楼市成交量暴跌近半 公务员抛盘占三分之一
Traditional "Red May" in Transaction bleak, a substantial discount to the price and advertising as the core vocabulary filled in Shenzhen each estate. On the one hand the local government into a "bailout Supremacy", while buyers hold out "just to be" in the cold watching.

Sane developers have realized that the crisis is approaching, has begun to deploy strategic retreat. Downturn in the market, individual investors first to feel the chill.

In addition to the Shenzhen property market clouded addition, the residential vacancy rate of at least 85% above the hustle and bustle of the rumors. The industry spread to a report, about 9.5 million housing units in Shenzhen, but the power supply bureau statistics, pay the electricity bills of only about 2.5 million. In other words, the housing vacancy rate reached nearly three-quarters.

Shenzhen May volume of new homes plunged nearly 50%

"Recently I have been receiving the real estate agent 's phone, not asking you showings, is to ask you have no interest in investment shops. "said Wang, Shenzhen, like this kind of thing is not the case.

Shenzhen real estate speculators who feel the chill of approaching the property, a house in Shenzhen, there are dozens of Deng also himself, began to sell the house in my own hands, "Recently the market is not good, the property market has been cool, I might as well sell real estate buy shops, some of the high return on investment. "Deng said.

In previous years, the industry was known as the "Red May" in this period, and not into the season, the performance of the property and land markets are relatively flat. According to the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Commission released statistics show that in May, Shenzhen residential sales units for 2547 units, down 48.8 percent year on year, down 13.2% qoq, but the average transaction price calmly, 23,981 yuan / square meter, up 1.1% qoq stable. Due to poor overall market environment, in addition to Fukuda, the districts volume significantly declined.

Second-hand housing market appears a lot of selling phenomenon, even if there is a substantial price reduction a sale is not ideal. May Shenzhen second-hand housing transaction sets 4758 sets of closing an area of 398,000 square meters, compared to a decrease of 8.4% in April, compared with the same period last year fell 24.99%.

According to the Central Plains Research Center, monitoring, sample the city's 188 real estate transaction price of 29,829 yuan / square meter, down 0.4 percentage points compared to last month.

Midland real estate broker told 21st Century Network: " Now a lot of owners selling their official capacity, throwing listings account for about a third of the second-hand real estate, in addition to a large number of business owners are selling on the market recently. "

In terms of interest rates, since May, the real estate situation in the central bank to tighten credit "propaganda" after last month did not ease, but gradually reduce the prime rate commercial loans, interest rates generally higher.

360 latest financial report shows that 27 banks in Shenzhen, the lowest rate is currently 10% off rates at HSBC, followed by China Merchants Bank [ 1.50% funding research report ] of 9.8% interest rate, HSBC loan provisions of 150 million or more before they can Enjoy a 10% discount rate, 1 to 1.5 million only get 9.5%. The same situation also appears in CCB, ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China, the floating interest rate linked to the loan amount, loan. Bank of Guangzhou, Hangzhou Bank, Everbright Bank [ 0.81% funding research report ] , Ping An Bank [ 2.35% funding research report ] and Shanghai Bank, five banks suspended the mortgage business.

Recently, Tan Huajie Vanke secretaries in a conference call on institutions and organizations, said in May the state near the bottom of the market, in June the market is the key to whether the recovery period.

Shenzhen residential vacancy rate of at least 85%?

Rates of Change and housing vacancy rate has a complementary relationship. The housing vacancy rate is an important indicator of the extent of the health of the real estate market, housing estate bubble inevitably accompanied by high vacancy rates.

Recently, there are people by dividing the actual electricity customers in Shenzhen stock room construction area, calculate the Shenzhen residential vacancy rate of at least 85%, although accurate figures questionable, but such projections result is eye-popping. Internationally accepted vacancy rate, refers to a moment of vacant housing area as a percentage of the total area of housing, the housing vacancy rate between 5-10% is a reasonable area; vacancy rate of between 10-20% for the vacant dangerous District; vacancy rate above 20% for the serious backlog of commercial area. According to this data, the Shenzhen property market has been in the danger zone.

Deputy general manager of Shenzhen Centaline HE Xiao-li told the 21st Century Network: "office vacancy rate of more than 20% belong to the danger zone housing is difficult to draw a perfect answer, because living in a different functionality, and some room for a degree, yes. In order to facilitate the transportation, but generally in three years to pay real estate vacancy rate is less than 50 percent in after-hours belong to the danger zone. "

But how to calculate the vacancy rate, the industry has always been controversial. In addition to calculating the actual electricity consumption, but also through the water, watching lighting rate to calculate, as early as 2011, one student Shenzhen University, took six months to survey 121 properties for sale 41,000 housing units, calculated by checking the meter, Shenzhen handedly building vacancy rate reached 43%.

Since then, the media reporter access to major emerging residential area of ​​Shenzhen in light conditions to determine the vacancy rate, said Longgang Area eighty percent vacancy rate, vacancy rates Liu Cheng Houhai Area, Longhua, Sakata vacancy rate is as high as eighty percent.

Beijing Urban Assembly School of Arts and Sciences Dean Zhang Jingqiu has said that the investigation two months interval meter survey, during a time when the hot summer months, there are often tenants if so, its consumption should be bigger. So assume that if within two months of a residential electricity consumption within 10 degrees, you can identify the dwelling is vacant.

However, a large number of farmers in Shenzhen housing vacancy rate to calculate difficult, the Shenzhen property market in the country is very unique in the existing housing stock, only about 25% of housing in the true sense. The remaining 75%, the vast majority of illegal construction (small property), in addition to part of Anju, raising housing unit, integration and construction of buildings and village maternity military construction, which is part of the area are changing every year, is not conducive to Monitoring and calculations.

In addition, some of the illegal construction in Shenzhen (small property) appears behind a dozen households while household electricity meter phenomenon, so in order to determine the vacancy rate meter has certain limitations.

It is noteworthy that, with regard to the vacancy rate reached more than 60% of the information, has many people in the industry Weibo, competing reproduced on the micro-channel, they believe that this or show that Shenzhen has begun to enter the stock room digestion stage, that , "first-tier cities' rates are relatively strong argument might hold water

Beijing time on June 10, the Central Plains (Shenzhen), the leading index of the tenth anniversary and media will be held in Shenzhen exchanges. Director, general manager of Shenzhen Centaline 郑叔伦 said at the meeting, the market volume low levels of the puzzle has been broken, the Central Plains (Shenzhen), the leading index in May ended the strong rise of 26 consecutive months, prices have entered a substantial decline, the property market about to enter the "second half." And September this year, the Shenzhen property market is expected to set off a round of price cuts tide, down for at least 2-3 years.

Centaline South China president Li Yaozhi also analyzes the overall property market this year that cool the property market is a foregone conclusion, the general trend of falling prices. Under the seller and the buyer at a disadvantage in the game bearish environment, developers should follow the market trend, the initiative to lower prices, the price the amount of walking and timely return of funds to boost market confidence.

No comments:

Post a Comment