Hangzhou Govt Not Worried About Price, But Sales

Hangzhou's government is worried that sales will dry up due to home buyers expecting large price declines and has been quietly easing policy. Instead of making a formal and public announcement, the government has been informing real estate companies privately in one-on-one conversations. An example: in Yuhang or Xiaoshan, buyers who do not already own a home can buy one. If the area is 90 sqm or less, the deed tax is 1% instead of 3%.

The article is long and covers several facets of the Hangzhou market, much of it not new information. One of the main takeaways, that has been mentioned in some other articles, is that Hangzhou is seen as a barometer for the national real estate market— at least second-tier cities. This gets overstated by developers because they want to inflate the importance of Hangzhou in their push for a rescue, but the intense media scrutiny is reflective of the general opinion that as goes the Hangzhou real estate market, so goes the national real estate market.

杭州楼市限降前政策早有松动 政府最怕市民不买房

Hangzhou property market Verge: government actions can prop maintained it?

On the real estate collapse that swept the country overnight. After the real estate market has experienced 15 years of rapid development, prices can only rise and not fall is expected to begin to reverse.

A prophecy. "The government will certainly attempt to save the city", "Chinese entrepreneurs" prediction becomes a reality. Hangzhou property market fell sharply in the face of the situation, the recent drop in Hangzhou government introduced restrictions order. However, the Government will be able to sell the property market in Hangzhou care is maintained it? Let us look first to the price of Hangzhou gives a kind of samples.

"This is true?"

May 17, SUNAC acquisition Greentown [ About the latest developments after] the news bulletin, the "collapse theory" sudden popularity of the real estate industry, is tantamount to dropping a bomb, many people are afraid to believe it. Greentown is one of the industry's leading real estate company headquartered in Hangzhou, known for quality.

February 17 three months ago, Hangzhou, a small developer - Dickson Beihai Park project the price of real estate in the industry dropped another bombshell. There is no "inflection point theory" kind of controversy, the richest in China, one of the most livable cities in Hangzhou, in 2014 actually took the lead in lowering prices. Exposed simultaneously with the price reduction, the amount of days inventory Hangzhou 120000 sets (4 times in Beijing, Nanjing twice), window paper oversupply already been pierce.

Hangzhou affects the country's attention. "If Hangzhou problems, then all means second-tier cities are likely to go wrong." Hangzhou property market celebrities 丁建刚 said. And about three or four lines of foam already not a new topic. If the 234 line cities have a problem, then go north of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-tier cities can be spared it?

In many people's minds, the 2013 is a good year for real estate. This year, real estate sales and investment are more than 8 trillion yuan, the highest in history; over 100 billion real estate company reached seven, over 50 billion has 10. Although the property market collapse in 2013 has Erdos, the property market in Wenzhou cut such an event, but a second-tier cities to make them look hot market less prominent. Property critic maguangyuan sigh: calendar has room estate bubble debate, except in 2013 did not, "real estate short basically dead as a doornail."

But things are along unexpected direction. Beihai Park horse after the first drop, price cuts after another in Hangzhou, March and April of real estate traditional "Indian summer" market did not come. Nationally, the situation is also true. According to CRIC research data, the first four months of 2014, first-tier cities volume of new homes fell 37.1 percent, the most shocking is the capital of Beijing, new volume almost halved. April static data show that Beijing's inventory continues to grow, the demand for the first time for many years to reverse the oversupply.

May, the real estate "collapse theory" suddenly pop. May 2, an Vanke [ Introduction News ] Vice President Mao Daqing speak at the salon within the industry widely circulated. In this version, Mao Daqing cited a lot of data to prove the property market downtrend, and said, "Beijing's property market can not read." At the same time, the major international investment bank reported bearish Chinese property market have also baked. For a time, an oversupply of about 234 line city, local government bailout, developer funding strand breaks overwhelming message.

"Before talking about the house are on the table, who now say reinvested to buy a house, we all think is the brain is not normal." Executive chairman of Zhejiang Research杨轶清said that before the feeling that the more control prices higher now was "relaxed regulation of prices is unlikely to have gone up." After experiencing a decade of rapid development, the whole society is expected to begin on the price reversed for the first time.

For this expected reversal, the first adjustment in Hangzhou property market has vane significance. In the minds of many Chinese people, Hangzhou is one of the most unlikely price cities. But the reality is that the property market in Hangzhou has taken the lead into the brutal "melee" price run has become a consensus. So in the end what the ideal city to become the top stock pressure Siege? Changes in housing prices is behind what logic?

Simmering

"In fact, we are in the faint at heart waiting (price) on this day."

For many locals in Hangzhou, the price is expected to do this.

September 5, 2013 in the afternoon, the core area of ​​Hangzhou, pool house land auctions, land feast is being staged in full swing. 3 total land premium of 13.673 billion yuan, the new king was born. Language site Sohu focus Hangzhou Yuzhong Bin editor felt faint "to go wrong." As of September, the land premium has exceeded 100 billion in Hangzhou, while real estate stocks have been a record amount of more than 100,000 units. Since August, Hangzhou property market unusually hot day CD frequency is, the excitement of the scene has been extended to the National Day, but the stock continues to rise. By the end, Hangzhou inventory has reached 113,200 units, far more than the deep north of Guangzhou and other cities. 2013 Hangzhou new housing turnover reached a historic high of 85,900 units, even according to the average monthly trading volume in 2013 to calculate, Hangzhou inventory also requires 16 months of time to digest.

First to feel the pressure line sales people. Hangzhou marketing director of a large company recalls entering the fourth quarter, the market "as good as Jan Jan", in November 2013 has felt the heavy chill, and there are some items to a lower opening the way into the market, the price is expected to have begun brewing, "In fact, we all know are the faint waiting (price) on this day." But the land market excitement continues. 2013 full year Hangzhou land premium of up to 132.69 billion, in January 2014 the land premium of up to 33.956 billion yuan, are the highest in history. January 23, 2014, after several rounds of fierce fighting, financial letter of the real estate to total 3.384 billion yuan, equivalent to 29,364 yuan / square meters of floor price to win a plot of Hangzhou Normal University, refresh king record. But after only a month, the land market suddenly turns cold, falling land prices in some regions of the half.


February 17, 2014, a look not so serious matter, suddenly validated Hangzhou property market is deteriorating expectations. On this day, only 200 suites source Dickson Beihai Park real estate projects in the late clearance of the nominal price: 19,000 / square meter fell to 15,800 / square meter. Dickson real estate executives in an interview with reporters, said the reason there is a clearance of new projects soon to be opened, the need of manpower. In the past, late clearance price is normal behavior, but this time it struck a nerve fragile property market in Hangzhou, China's property market has also become a source where this wave. Beihai Park announced price cuts of less than 24 hours, which is not far from the Champs Tianhong [ News Price apartment Review ] project will play a "straight down 6000" ad.

The price of the Beihai Park, the first reaction 丁建刚 is "ominous", "Hangzhou property market may enter the price system remodeling phase." In his view, the price war has been explosive. Strangely, no one has a clear follow-up since then the price has more than 20 projects launched the so-called special room. But over the past two weeks, trading volume did not go up, "we had no bottom, I do not know how much the drop-scale, has no coordinate system of price."

And Ding Jiangang the same ominous feeling, as well as banks and local governments. February 21, Ding Jiangang Governor of the Bank received a telephone call asking price of things, and indicated 10 banks may stop development loan. February 23 is a Sunday, the Industrial Bank a piece of paper "on the suspension of the real estate credit," the sudden online crazy pass, again let Hangzhou property market nerves. February 24 at 8:30 am, Ding Jiangang Research Center received a live Renqin Hong SMS portion of the main building, and asked Hangzhou in the end what happens. Stock market opened at 9:30, real estate stocks hit bottom, Black Monday. 11:00, four lines and CITIC [ Introduction News ], China Merchants Bank and other 10 banks jointly issued a clarification announcement, said the real estate credit agreement caliber normal, steady-related business is still carried out. Hangzhou property market temporarily slow breath.

Hangzhou City Housing Authority, Price Bureau and other relevant departments of high tension, held a related meeting. March 5, Li Keqiang, the Prime Minister in the "Government Work Report", first proposed in different cities of the property market "classification regulation" concept, one size fits all type of regulation has come to an end. Caught in the dilemma of many cities, Hangzhou also appeared relaxed regulation, government bailout expectations. However, due to "politics" of pressure, Hangzhou and not issued a final regulation deregulation policies.

"In fact the government has begun to loosen in many ways." I love my house in Hangzhou, a business manager, said the company, for example, examine the qualified buyers, if you have a house in Xiaoshan and Yuhang or main city without a house, then buy a house in the main city also considered the first house, so less than 90 square estate deed only pay 1% instead of 3%. "Hangzhou property market policies have not publicly announced, is a one to inform the industry and the company." He said the government fear most is not high or low prices, but consumers are expected to form the price, do not buy a house , so many do not move the announcement, nor in an interview. This approach is not underground Hangzhou first, Ningbo is to use this technique to relax the restriction in fact.

A quarter of economic analysis at the end of April at the Hangzhou Municipal Government, Hangzhou Development and Reform Commission announced its intention to establish a major price adjustment policy forecasting system real estate companies, real estate companies released before a major price adjustment, you must notify the authorities. "No company in Hangzhou now say he much straight down, how many million cases are very put it mildly, how much cap." I love my home in the manager seems that the government in an effort to maintain market confidence, "prices fall The most intense, in addition to the developer is the government. "

In 丁建刚 opinion, and in 2008, Hangzhou property market experienced a crisis in 2011 compared to 2014, the price of Beihai Park "is simply something big fart", but triggered a series of substantially all aspects of the response. "This shows that confidence has seen a big problem." 2008, 2011, Hangzhou, many developers are on the verge of bankruptcy, especially in 2011 many developers eager to return the funds, even lower than the opening price of the floor price. But in 2014, Hangzhou did not happen, housing prices in most capital chain no problem. The acquisition is Sunac Greentown, in 2008, 2011 are capital chain broke the crisis, but its annual report in 2013 showed that 67% debt, currently within the safety line.

Beihai Park after price cuts, many developers have chosen to delay opening, opening March dramatic reduction in Hangzhou, the market is expected to become more pessimistic.

Into April, Hangzhou property market price action has been surging, not secretive. From low-end small apartment to a mansion full price. The most high-end luxury Hangzhou Wulin 1, November 2012 opening price is 74,000 / square meter, currently down to about 60,000 yuan. Some means of vicious competition began, melee began. April 17, Jingrui real estate and the WTO estate projects located in Yuhang salespeople fight, reason is to grab customers. Some projects use such a blatant advertisement: "Reservation card with certain projects may lead gift to the project." Vanke opening a project ready, but the surrounding items known to be more low-cost price after opening night, Vanke's projects fall into passivity. There are also some projects focused forum, reached a tacit alliance similar prices, similar products, similar prices, consumers are willing to buy someone is someone, we maintain a delicate balance. Once developers have capital chain tension, the price will occur, this balance will be broken.

"In the past developers to cut prices because there is no money, and this time it is because the expected changes." Zhang Huifang, general manager of a win-win mechanism that developers now believe that prices are basically not much longer to go up, which means this year The price is almost next year with the price, "everyone's pocket for security policies are." marketing director aforementioned large listed companies also said that now "fast Who (sales) action that day like too little."

Behind the amount of days inventory

Inventory amount of days behind, is the day the amount of land supply, the amount of days supply of land is land finance Pushing Hands

Ding Jiangang believes that the property market in Hangzhou adjustment, there is no reason for policy, "the invisible hand of the market is purely at work."

According to Hangzhou transparent network data, in April 2014, Hangzhou inventory has reached 119,000 sets, if calculated according to April more than 5000 sets of sales, it takes about 24 months to complete to melt. I love my family, such as Century 21 Real Estate agency in Hangzhou amount of second-hand housing stock listings conducted a diagnostic statistics, the results found to have exceeded 10 million units. In other words, Hangzhou property market in the sale of a second-hand housing has reached 22 million units. There are more depressing news, there are a lot of undeveloped projects in Hangzhou, the future will be formed millions of square meters of supply.

Looked from side to side Hangzhou Desheng elevated, is a scene full of magical color - the house, the house, the house, the eyes see is not popular in homes. In Xiaoshan and Yuhang, such a large area, more intensive regional supply of new homes. Hangzhou property market oversupply, with the naked eye can see.

Hangzhou property market in the end is how the formation of such a huge supply? This feast from Hangzhou land since 2009 to start.

2009 Hangzhou land premiums amounted to 105.4 billion yuan, first in the country, is followed by 104.3 billion yuan in Shanghai and Beijing 928 billion. 2010, Hangzhou land premium was 99.25 billion yuan, the National sixth; 2011 was 47 billion yuan; 2012 was 61.1 billion yuan; 2013 was 132.69 billion yuan, ranking fourth in the country. In the past five years, three years, Hangzhou has nearly 100 billion land premium.

Qian Yin Qiang, general manager of Hangzhou good ground network, "after deducting related costs, 40 percent more than the government to get our hands only to sell gold." According to his estimates, the financial dependence of Hangzhou land (land premium income - related costs / local fiscal revenue) of about 50%. And generally believed that more than 40%, it means that the financial dependence of land is relatively high.

In the eyes of Zhejiang expert Yang Yiqing, Hangzhou is a city like this: in 2013, the country's top 500 private enterprises have 53 headquarters in Hangzhou; 2013 Hangzhou Wahaha tax 6000000000, 7000000000 Alibaba taxes in the country, not many; 2013 Hangzhou secondary and tertiary production is 3.2:43.9:52.9 structure, the structure is more reasonable; "head" of the industry more successful, such as electronics, Internet, Software, culture, animation and so on.

"Hangzhou finances should have been more money, but the money will have money to spend law, urban construction in recent years, Hangzhou is almost shaking, a Xixi Wetland spent tens of billions." Hangzhou, a local Entrepreneurs said that the government and enterprises, once a big stall shop, want to narrow it is difficult. "Hangzhou these years really become beautiful, but ultimately overdraft or locals wealth."

In Hangzhou, the government financing platform called "do to the platform," which is the most direct expression of the land finance. In other words, the debt of local governments rely on land as collateral, the amount of future premium income loan financing platform companies can be obtained proportional to their plots. Local governments in order to get more money in the short term, it will have to push up land prices in inner impulse, a direct consequence of pushing up prices. And once prices fall, the premium will fall, which is the local government afraid of falling prices reason.

Considering the price of the property market in Hangzhou in 2014, still goes back to 2009 prices skyrocketing.

2009-2010, China's property market experienced a dream dimple like crazy bull, Hangzhou is also true. February 2009 Hangzhou property market is still bleak, but by March, Zhang Huifang found that many buyers of real estate sales offices packed with people, stamp duty boom (only the tax at the time of the real estate transaction). May, the market is hot, developers began to cover plate reluctant sellers. By the end of 2009, the prices of many houses have doubled over the beginning.

Crazy Quotes lasted until September 2010, the national real estate sales area of ​​100 million square meters to break a single month, marking the most ever. This led directly to the history of the most severe "restriction, limited credit" policies. January 2011, the property market has entered a period of ice. The end of 2011, most of the real estate business capital chain Hangzhou crisis, prices began to fall, until July 2012 before the market began to improve, the price began to compensatory growth. Even so, in 2013 prices Xiasha 1.2 million / square meter, west of about 15,000 / square meter, far less than in 2009.

丁建刚 said that Hangzhou is not the peak prices in 2013, but appeared in the crazy market by the end of 2009 to early 2010's.

Also in the year 2009, the first wave of large-scale developers began large-scale entry of foreign Hangzhou. Prior to this, local property developer based in Hangzhou. 2013, set off a second wave of foreign developers into Hang climax: Wanda, Hengda, green, investment ...... a total of 28 new faces for the first time into Hangzhou, amount to get to 437 million, accounting for 46% of total premium . From 2013 onwards, many large housing prices began to adjust strategy, shrink from a four-tier cities to second-tier cities. First-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the premium is too high, while the price of Hangzhou can also withstand relatively speaking, so developers flock. In addition, in 2013 in Hangzhou, there are many to enter the market or just ready to listed companies, such as Jing Rui, financial letter, etc., in the well-known market in Hangzhou project will help the valuation in the capital markets.

The entry of foreign capital predators, increased competition in the land market, leading to Hangzhou Wang frequent. Many projects in 2009 and 2010 to the king, and it has not sold out - they will be subjected to a severe test. For example, by the end of 2009, Shanghai-Hangzhou Chinese enterprises for the first time into the product won the Royal Bay project site, the floor price of 18,206 yuan / square meter; But in 2014, another developer won a piece of land in the vicinity , the floor price is only 12,440 yuan / square meter. It is good to network statistics, from 2009 to 2013 18 king project in Hangzhou, there is a loss of 15. A foreign developers talked Ding Jiangang sigh Hangzhou property market is "rubbish", "land prices rising, but prices are falling."

Hangzhou property market has also been gathered pace and to accelerate the bigwigs. It is good to network statistics, in 2013, Hangzhou opened fastest 10 properties, from the opening to get to an average of only eight months, this data is compared to the 21 months of 2012, a full 13 months faster. "If you follow the rhythm of the previous supply of Hangzhou will not so much as they are now." Qian Yin Qiang said.

This round of price cuts, many developers choose to exit the market in Hangzhou. 5.1 During located in Yuhang mountain lake community [ News Price apartment Review ] project to open to sell half of the price, the more rich · Boomtown [ News Price apartment Review ] project hit the "bread price flour price" ad industry sources, the two developers are cheap liquidation, ready to quit Hangzhou market. June 2013, Youngor estate for a consideration of 480 million loss Shenhua returned the land, the land of the king in 2010. Younger Xixi Qingxue another project, 2007's floor price is 10,000 / square meter, now selling price is 14,000 / square meter, it is basically a loss liquidation status, Younger will also exit the Hangzhou market.

Iron Triangle Collapse

In the triangular alliance real estate, banking and local government, the banks have been the first withdrawal

Hangzhou-day supply of the property occur simultaneously, since 2013 to tighten banks' mortgage loans.

"The current real estate market in Hangzhou, including weak sales, including direct financial incentive." Beijing think-tank, said Zhang, general manager of Qualcomm. He cited the two sets of figures: in 2013 a quarter of the national mortgage loan growth was 19% in 2014 to 18.1% in the first quarter, down 0.9 percentage points; But in 2014 a quarter of the property market in recent years, the supply of high points, increased significantly in 2013. In Hangzhou, for example, an increase in mortgage loans declined, while the property market was in a substantial increase in the supply of both poles apart, exacerbated by the conflict of oversupply.

Beginning in June 2013, including many cities, including Hangzhou, mortgage lenders have felt slowed down, the discount rate is reduced compared to the previous efforts. The fourth quarter of 2013, the mortgage will be able to grant the original twelve weeks down, often need 3-5 months.

April 2014, CRIC research centers nationwide in 22 cities 69 bank branches to conduct research, the results are promising: Nearly nine out of the first mortgage bank benchmark interest rates rose even go up 5% to 10%, 20% of individual floating , 22 cities in six cities to adjust the relative stability of the two home loan interest rates, Guangzhou, Huizhou, compared with the benchmark interest rate by 20%. Upstream rates mean monthly increase for purchasing is not a small blow.

Compare mortgage banking has always been a sought-after business, but there has been reversed in 2013. June 19, 2013, China's first outbreak of the "money shortage", the bank's funding costs soared. This makes the mortgage business spreads getting smaller, but the loan is a 30-year mortgage, the bank's liquidity disadvantage. "To account for the mortgage banking business table positions, and now the bank's funds are very tight, so we tend to do some more profitable business." Shenzhen Development Bank, a Beijing branch president analysis, profit-driven drive makes the mortgage is no longer a meat and potatoes.

Not only is the housing mortgage loans, development loans is also a state of contraction. "In terms of policies involving housing loans, in recent years we have received has been a contraction signal." Above governor said that from the beginning of 2012, the Shenzhen Development Bank has an internal real estate development loans in strict control of the state, "We are all using sheet business funds to do real estate development loans, but also requires a well-known real estate developers. "an insider ICBC also said that starting in 2010, ICBC has basically been no new real estate development loans.

2014 Zhang participated in organized exchanges CBRC found on the property of the bank into a prompt risk policy objectives, the previous objective is to prevent prices from rising too fast. "Tips risk policy level, then the bank will certainly tighten a little."

Bank development loans for vigilance, did not begin in 2013, but 2008. According to Central Bank statistics, the balance of the nation's major financial institutions to develop lending in 2008 was 3.8 trillion in 2014 to 4.59 trillion, grew by only 20%. But from 2008 to 2014, the mortgage has grown from 6 trillion to 10 trillion, an increase of 60%; estate sales increased from 2.8 trillion to 8 trillion, more than doubled. And behind the two compared to the real estate development loans equivalent to almost no growth.

Since 1998, housing reform, developers, local governments, banks form a triangular alliance mechanism - the local government land sales to developers, the developer responsible for the development, the bank is responsible for providing funds, tripartite form a prosperity, a loss for both the interests of the Union . This is the core mechanism of Chinese real estate development. But by 2013, this mechanism appears collapse signs - starting in 2008, the bank has gradually withdrawn from the real estate development loans on one leg, and in 2013 the bank began pumping the other leg from personal housing mortgage loans.

Not just the banks, other sources of funds, but also accelerate the outflow of the real estate industry. Trust with interest, according to network statistics, in 2014 a quarter of the total real estate collective trust issue 50.7 billion yuan, down compared to the fourth quarter of 2013 almost half of 99.7 billion yuan, compared with the first quarter of 2013 greatly reduced the size of 64.07 billion yuan by 20.9% . April 26, Castrol estate has ceased to be introduced, "China's overall return on real estate investment Harvest Fund" fund-raising program. With the Fed to accelerate the exit QE, the door of the real estate business overseas financing is gradually closed.

Under the financing channels and more narrow, and the increasingly difficult situation Days sales outstanding, a group of developers event was eliminated already happening. May 17, top 100 real estate enterprises in Shenzhen glorious burst real estate debt crisis, its chairman said there are 500 million -10 million funding gap. Since March of this year, Ningbo, Nanjing, Wuxi, Hefei, Anhui, Hubei Xiangyang, Shaanxi Shenmu other places, developers have gradually leaked news of funding strand breaks or on foot.

In Hangzhou, the capital chain has small developers caught in the crisis. Hangzhou, a financial sources, there are many small developers have put all the assets are mortgaged to borrow money, and she knows the situation is more dangerous to have three. "But I had no idea how, the situation turned out to be the first green city." She said. Greentown previous housing market correction is almost a living specimen. 2008, 2011 are on the verge of bankruptcy, this time under the basic health of the financial situation, Song Weiping, chairman of Greentown opted out.

Will an Avalanche Occur?

Oversupply of financial tightening overwhelming confidence in the property market will be the last straw

Since the price from Beihai Park, Hangzhou prices has clearly entered a downward path, but will be reduced to what degree. How will it next evolution of the Chinese property market has a wind vane significance.

"Hangzhou is now the most sensitive of the city," said Ding Jiangang, if Hangzhou is a problem, then the description of all the second-tier cities are less likely to go wrong.

In 杨轶清 seems that prices rise and fall, in fact, is the result of developers and consumers on the expectations game. "Is like two people in a tug of war, before all the developers win, but this time the situation is not the same." He said, although it can not give what conclusions Hangzhou property market, "but this time than the previous price expectations times stronger, because a lot of effective purchasing power out of the question. "Since the 2008 financial crisis, a large number of SMEs in Zhejiang Province, bankruptcy, real economic malaise. "Since 2012 I heard what the boss often on foot, and in 2013 the court accepted tens of thousands from Wenzhou private lending cases, these both for psychological expectations, or the actual ability to pay, is a blow." For a long time, Zhejiang Hangzhou is the destination for all to buy a house, and accounted for a considerable number of foreigners, but these are now out of the question of purchasing power.

Beihai Park after price cuts, Hangzhou property market in the country have confidence even in a recession. Cause of this state, not because of the price itself, but because of the fragility of the economic fundamentals. When confidence slump to a certain extent, on the collapse of the popular will.

Ding Jiangang believe that the property market will crash to determine whether there is a pointer - if you drop the price no one to buy, then it may crash occurred. The current situation is that many buyers are almost guaranteed to make you no longer have sent the price, or do not buy. "This shows confidence in the property market is very fragile."

"Lack of confidence, it could lead to the collapse of the relationship between supply and demand is not necessarily the reason." 丁建刚 that deterioration is expected to result in rising inventories, inventories will lead to further deterioration of expectations, so the cycle will lead to market collapse.

Hangzhou property market dilemma is a microcosm of many urban housing oversupply. In other cities, the commercial real estate bubble is more alarming. In Shenyang, Chengdu and other cities, and the construction of shopping centers built up to more than 100, some of the city's commercial real estate supply ratio up to 15 years. Once the commercial real estate bubble burst, the problem is more serious than the housing bubble.

Now, whether it is in Hangzhou, or Beijing, the developer of the government bailout expectations have been very strong. "The government bailout is basically just a matter of time, cost, size matters." Zhang said, the status of the real estate in the Chinese economy, determines that it can not collapse.

May 12, the central bank and the CBRC held a symposium on housing finance services, that "give priority to households for the first time to buy their ordinary commodity housing loan demand, improve the efficiency of the mortgage loan and reasonably priced, and not to stop individual purchase loan" content. The industry believes that the central bank move is intended to stimulate the market and improve the real estate market activity. But this is not the bailout of substantive policy.

"I believe the Government will be shot, but the key is to not care is maintained." Hangzhou, one industry source said.