China Stock Analysts Miss the Mark

Bloomberg: China Stock Analysts Were Among World's Worst Amid Surprise Rout

The rout in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has lost more than a third of its value since the end of April 2015, followed one of the benchmark’s best rallies ever and shocked global markets as indicated by how badly the analysts covering Chinese equities performed. Their predictions were off by bigger margins than those of analysts researching stocks in the rest of the world’s 20 largest markets.

Had they been right, the gauge would be 43 percent higher than last week’s 2,938 close on the Shanghai Composite, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which uses weighting metrics to convert consensus price targets for companies to index forecasts reflecting analysts’ collective wisdom. Predictions for the benchmark gauge are based on about 2,000 target prices for stocks constituting three-quarters of its weight.

Surprise?

Now forecasting earnings, you might at well buy a dart set and a Magic 8-Ball.

As for the market, there's a bad PMI bounce on the expectation of more stimulus.