Mood Shift: Brexit Back in Lead, AfD Says Muslims Not Welcome

This chart removes the don't knows from the polls, and shows the Brexit Leave lead over Remain. The odds are still against a Leave vote, but the trend is still in its favor.

The British central bank is preparing for potential volatility in the wake of a Leave victory. FT: Bank of England busy preparing for Brexit vote

This quote is shocking:
George Osborne has suggested interest rates will rise if the pound slumps, bringing a bout of inflation and making households worse off. The chancellor told journalists last month [April] that the financial instability would imply “mortgage rates are likely to go up”.
It sounds like Brexit is exactly what central bankers want: higher interest rates and higher inflation. They should be all for it!

Meanwhile in Germany, Merkel's implementation of an extreme peak social mood policy amid a negative mood phase is producing exactly what one would expect, an extreme reaction in the other direction: Anti-immigrant AfD says Muslims not welcome in Germany
Members of the anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany (AfD) on Sunday backed an election manifesto that says Islam is not compatible with the constitution and calls for a ban on minarets and the burqa.
Social mood is still relatively high now, a bull rally within the bear market. When a negative mood swing occurs within this downturn, AfD's numbers will surge and its policies will become more extreme. The sooner Merkel is removed, the better, but it may be too late. Events are already out of control.
Speigel: Europe At Odds over Visa Freedom for Turks
Ankara's logic is simple: Given that Turkey is solving Europe's refugee problem, the country's 79 million people must be provided with visa-free travel to the EU, even if Ankara hasn't yet fulfilled all 72 of the conditions set out by Brussels. That's the price. Europe must turn a blind eye.

It's likely that it will do so. On Wednesday, the European Commission is expected to make a decision on whether to move forward with the visa liberalization process and there is much to suggest the EU executive will decide in favor. During a meeting on Wednesday of this week, members of the Commission agreed that if Turkey fulfilled as many of the 72 conditions as possible between now and then, that it will make a favorable recommendation. Sources with knowledge of the Commission proceedings said the number of outstanding conditions would have to be single digit in number. "The count will take place on Wednesday." So far, Turkey has met around 50 of the demands.

The deal with Turkey, negotiated by Chancellor Merkel, envisions the introduction of visa-free travel for Turkish nationals by the end of June if all goes according to plan.
Just in time for the Brexit vote.

No comments:

Post a Comment