2016-06-09

Trouble Brewing? Soros Goes Short As USD Analog Predicts Dollar Spike

This story gets headlines: A Bearish George Soros Is Trading Again

The last time Soros got personally involved in making bearish bets was 2007.

Here's a chart of gold and the 30-year treasury.
This is Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the 30-year treasury bond.
The 20+ year treasury bond fund (TLT) versus the Dow (DIA).
The U.S. Dollar Index.
Notice the peak in 1985 with the Plaza Accord. Roughly 17 years later, there is a similar peak in 2002.
The second dot is the end of the initial sell-off, in 1988. Roughly 17 years later, another initial bottom in 2005.
The first trading range/ consolidation phase peak in 1989. 17 years later in 2006.
The second peak in 1991. 17 years later in 2008.
The third peak in 1994. A little off, it comes a little early in 2010.
End of bear market in 1995. 16 years later in 2011.
Bull market breakout in 1997. 17 years later in 2014.
Bull run ends in late 1997. 18 years later in early 2015.
A new high in 1998. 17 years later in late 2015.
A test of the bull breakout low in late 1998. 18 years later in early 2016.

If the pattern keeps going, there will be a spike in the dollar soon. There are two possible events on the horizon that would cause a spike in the dollar. The Fed signals a rate hike is coming soon on June 15 or Britain votes to leave the EU. Other things could happen, but these are the two events that are known.

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