2014-09-04

Buying Restrictions Fail to Lift Sales, Price Cuts Coming

Of the cities that eased or eliminated buying restrictions, 62% saw sales continue to fall.

内地9个城市拥超高库存 开发商正酝酿降价
7-8 months, although most of the purchase of the city are gradually relaxed, but only a part of the city ring volume rose in August, the city continued to decline year on year is still up 62%. There are reports that four first-tier cities of Guangzhou-Shenzhen northward up the volume all fell, the average decline of over 35%.

Correspondingly, August supply continued to increase in some key cities with this, including Hangzhou , Shenyang, Ningbo, Wuxi, Qingdao and other cities inventory digestion period were more than 20 months, Shenyang is a whopping 35.53 months, that requires nearly three years to digest the local property stocks.

First-tier cities, Shanghai, Guangzhou and the supply of both broke the one million square meters. As of the end of August, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen stock were as high as 10.4 million square meters, 8.37 million square meters, 9.17 million square meters and 5.33 million square meters, including Beijing and Shenzhen, respectively, need to 18.23 months and 20.11 months to digest off inventory.

In high inventory turnover downturn situation, developers have cut prices tier cities prepare to run the amount of " golden nine silver ten . "

Inventories continue to rise

August-year supply of many major cities have increased.

CRIC report showed that first-tier cities, Shanghai, Guangzhou and the supply of both broke the one million square meters, up the chain appeared to rise, which amounted to 1.11 million square meters in Guangzhou supply, growth of 30%; Beijing, Shenzhen supply MoM has declined year on year, of which the supply of 330,000 square meters in Shenzhen, a reduction of 47% qoq. Second and third tier cities, the supply exceeded one million square meters of seven, including Changchun supply amounted to 4.59 million square meters, growth of 209 percent, 506 percent year on year is greatly increased.

Although there are rises and supply drop, due to the turnover has been more sluggish, local property stocks should not be underestimated.

According to CRIC report, as of the end of August, the four first-tier cities north of Guangzhou-Shenzhen stock volume reached 10.4 million square meters, 8.37 million square meters, 9.17 million square meters, 5.33 million square meters, an increase of 30 percent year on year respectively, 25% , 42%, 25%, inventory digestion cycle of four cities reached 18.23 months, respectively, 11.40 months, 13.07 months, 20.11 months, compared to last year, increased by 138%, 75%, 86%, 95 %.

Many second-tier cities also appear high inventory situation. CRIC report shows that as of the end of August, Shenyang inventory reached 29.6 million square meters, needed 35.53 months to complete digestion; while Qingdao stock up to 17 million square meters, needed 26 months to digest; Changchun stock reached 15.87 million square m, need 24 months to digest; Ningbo stocks up 6.65 million square meters, needed 24.16 monthly digest. As a quasi-tier cities of Hangzhou, inventory is high to 11.86 million square meters, needed 20.11 monthly digest.

August price "warm-up"

In fact in many places have begun to cut prices to run the amount of "warm-up" activities.

Under financial pressure, Shenzhen developers for quick to melt, low-cost marketing makes home prices fell by 1 percentage point. Shenzhen Urban Planning and Land Resources Committee official website statistics show that in August the average price of 22,329 yuan in Shenzhen Yishoufang / square meter, edged down 1.04 percent. This is the second since June this year, the average price Yishoufang three consecutive months of decline, but the decline narrowed.

Prices edged down, but to promote the deal warmer, August total turnover of 2889 new homes in Shenzhen housing, an increase of 19.1%; closing an area of ​​277,000 square meters, an increase of 22.5%. This is the second year in Shenzhen high level of monthly turnover.

August Guangzhou turnover ratio also improved in July, but with more volume to the market led to lower stock hit a record high in the background, "Golden September and Silver October," the outlook is not optimistic, real estate prices have a tendency to expand the scope.

Data show that in August Guangzhou city's new commercial residential average price of 15,438 yuan net signed handedly / square meter, more than in July (15,253 yuan / square meter) edged up 1 percent, the city's new commercial housing turnover 4832 units, the chain in July (4515 sets ) increased by 7%.

Center six new residential district in August handedly net average price of 22,865 yuan sign / square meter, compared with July (22,842 yuan / square meter) flat; net signed copy of 1734 units, the chain rose 14 percent in July. Suburban five new residential district in August handedly average price of 11,488 yuan net signed / square meter, compared with July (11,741 yuan / square meter) fell 2%. Transacted 3098 units, the chain in July was up 3%. Five areas in the suburbs, in August the average price decline are the main tune, but the decline was less than 10%, the largest decline in Panyu reach 8%.

Industry sources, the central six districts in August volume and price of the reason is not the market to pick up, but a year's backlog of individual real estate network signed release, resulting in short-term trading volume and transaction price increases.

Centaline data show that in August Shanghai supply of new homes up to 1.006 million square meters, but did not play a role in boosting turnover and ultimately volume of only 653,700 square meters, is the third low this year, but also the second-lowest since 2010 over the same period , second only to 2011. Average transaction price of 26,290 yuan / square meter, down 0.2 percent, rose 11.6%. Market analysts believe that, with the "Golden September and Silver October," the arrival of market supply will further increase, in the case of the purchase of limited credit policy difficult to relax, for the return of funds to complete the sales target, price shipping or will become the majority of housing prices to choose from.

August's Beijing property market turnover appeared a wavelet boom, new residential net signed MoM substantial growth over 60% full month net signed volume exceeded million. Analysis of the industry, which is mainly due to 25,000 units from the housing market reasons. But in stock top pressure situation, "price the amount of walking, low-cost market" will become a common phenomenon, new home prices will face more downward pressure.

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