2014-09-25

Third Tier Cities Bottoming, Handan Collapse Exaggerated

Don't panic. Handan's real estate market won't collapse and third tier cities are bottoming out as demand picks up.

三线城市楼市见底迹象明显 邯郸楼市真会崩盘吗?

Original title: media said Handan property market collapse is exaggerated three-tier cities obvious signs of bottoming out

Following Wenzhou, Ordos, a chain reaction triggered by the property market downturn, appeared in Handan this third tier cities.

According to reports, the recent housing prices Handan part funding strand breaks, over ten real estate stoppage occurs, the scale of illegal fund-raising up to 9.3 billion yuan.

Since the private funds of the principal and interest payment crisis occurs, a large number of creditors surfaced.

Handan housing crisis has sparked fears of three or four lines of high inventory risk. However, according to 21st Century Business Herald reporter found and Wenzhou, Ordos, Handan and other four-tier cities is different, most four-tier cities are still in the process of digestion inventory. Exaggerated rhetoric property market collapse.

Four-tier cities need to guard against the risk of inventory

At present, the industry consensus is that the property market tier cities most vulnerable.

Shanghai E-House Research Institute data show that in the first, second and third tier cities, second-tier cities to inventory the fastest, and third-tier cities most at risk of high inventory. As of the end of August, one, two, three lines 35 total urban newly built commercial housing stock were 3486,19480 and 39.65 million square meters, growth was 2.5%, 0.7% and 2.8%, respectively, year on year growth of 31.2 percent, 21.1 % and 22.8%. Three cities inventory showed both qoq and yoy upward trend.

Compared with a second-tier cities and third-tier cities inventories remain oscillating upward trend. August and third tier cities volume of 1.58 million square meters, while the new supply of 2.67 million square meters, which leads to relatively larger inventories increase in the chain.

35 cities from specific numerical point of view, the greatest value of Wenzhou sales ratio for 47.0 months. But compared to 48.6 months in July, then fell.

This ease downward pressure on prices in Wenzhou have a certain role. The lowest value Hefei sales ratio for 5.4 months. Including Wenzhou, Maoming, Yantai, Tianjin, Xi'an and several cities, including the value of inventories to sales ratio is too large, the probability of such a city house prices fell as well. In contrast, Dalian, Nanjing, Chongqing, Taiyuan and Hefei stockholding relatively small.

China Index Research Institute survey report shows that over the past few years, the first-tier cities land market was in short supply, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou digestion time of less than two years, indicating that in the past few years, the supply of land is still relatively low. However, the capital city of the land in western and northeastern volume generally higher than its ability to digest, or will face oversupply risk. Over the past four years, Wuhan residential turnover of over 100 million square meters of land, far more than residential digestion period, but the city is in the transformation of the old times, and the size of the population prominent, able to digest their new land supply.

In recent years, rapid urban development in western region, far more than the ability to digest land transactions, including Lanzhou average sales area of ​​less than two million square meters, and Wenzhou pretty, but its nearly four-year deal for three times the land Wenzhou. Guiyang Although nearly half of the province to attract people to buy, but if at the current sales pace, still need seven years to digest recent land transactions. Most urban land to the northeastern region of high pressure, including Changchun, Harbin, Shenyang needed over five years to digest the new supply of land.

The report also shows the middle finger hospital, from the supply of land, investment and new construction, such as supply class indicators, part of the 1.5-tier cities such as Wuhan, Chongqing, development and investment in recent years, heat a large, high short-term go of stress, but long term, the larger The population of the more developed adsorption capacity and economic level, will gradually absorb the current abundant market supply. Part of the second and 2.5 tier cities, such as Dalian, Kunming and other cities, the market supply exceeds its ability to digest, but the regional center of the city remain certain advantages, the risk of excess supply will gradually be eased.

And Yingkou, Ordos four-tier cities, due to urban planning ahead, highlighting the scale of past land supply, the stock market is high, and such small urban economy, the limited size of the population, the future is difficult to digest excess supply, long-term oversupply risk to be vigilant.

Beijing Green Science and Technology Co., Ltd., chairman of oxygen only 邱秀俐 an interview with reporters, said the Chinese "Green Building and air healthy" forum, market positioning their products mainly to a second-tier based. This is because, according to their research, the four-tier cities due to low housing demand, the demand for high-end green home rarely. But do not rule out the four-tier cities also have relatively optimistic spending power.

Destocking accelerated

Although the pressure, but by Handan housing crisis and the collapse of three or four lines drawn conclusions may exaggerated.

Easy Home researcher Yan Yuejin that, for thirty-four city urban collapse theory fears are not groundless, but should not be over-interpreted. From inventory tier cities, the pressure to the stock part of the city is great. Can be divided into two categories. The first is the land relatively large, it is difficult to digest in the short term. Through gradual liberalization of the household registration system and other practices to digest. The second category is investment in speculative factors such cities is relatively heavy, relatively large-scale private capital, once the economy to shift, there will be "on foot", "default" and so on. This can be understood as a potential crash risk.

Data show that the parties, the four-tier cities to inventory risk is waning.

As of the end of August, Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute of the 35 cities monitored, the total new commercial housing stock is 269.31 million square meters, growth of 1.3%, an increase of 22.6%. Inventory then pushed. But it is worth noting that the current inventory of over-year growth for two consecutive months narrowing trend has emerged.

Sales ratio data also showed that the market risk is weakening. August, 35 cities new commercial housing sales ratio was 17.5, which means that the market needs with 17.5 months to digest these stocks. In July, the sales ratio value of 18.7 months. This is the first time since the 12 month sales ratio fell, the rate has accelerated to the inventory. Yan Yuejin expected turnover of September and October will be some improvement in the coming months stockholding great probability ratio peaked.

CRIC research center of urban real estate market through two dimensions (supply and demand ratio, inventory digestion cycle), after a comparative analysis of the risks found in the city, from the digestive cycle, 20 cities in seven typical city inventory to more than 20 months , which topped the Shenyang continued for 36 months. These cities basically at the bottom of the current market transactions, demand continues to shrink dramatically little space. In the absence of external intervention, first-and some second-tier cities are expected to be the end of the adjustment in the fourth quarter of this year.

CRIC Research Center also found that in August, first-tier cities turnover continued to decline year on year, but Beijing, Shenzhen mom started to positive. Second-tier cities differentiation becomes more obvious in some cities because of policies to promote trading volume picked up; real estate prices in some cities have also stimulate demand gradually released into the city over seven chain volume rebounded, increasing 45 percent year on year turnover city; much better performance tier cities than expected, the city continued to decline year on year, although trading volume, but the chain see obvious signs of bottoming out in some cities.

Yan Yuejin think Handan total economic output is not large, individual housing prices bankruptcy easy "to establish the typical" can not actually indicate a fundamental deterioration in the property market situation occurred throughout the city. Can be understood as, although survived the cold period on the purchase of the policy as a whole, Hebei Province, Handan but eventually "physical" relatively poor, the property market is running relatively staggering pace.

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