2023-02-05

Peak FBI

American Greatness: Planned New FBI HQ Is Twice the Size of the Pentagon

If you're familiar with Socionomics, you know that many economies peak around the time the "world's largest skyscraper" is being built. Major new HQs for corporations can also mark a top. In essence, these are prideful projects that also distract from core missions or show it believes the core mission is in hand. The FBI is spiking the football after subverting the Trump presidency, interfering with the 2020 election and jailing enemies of the Deep State. A new HQ doesn't mean it will peak like a business or country though. Government institutions don't really have competitors. They expand and expand and expand over time. They will only be stopped by a willful effort by their opponents.

The FBI should cease to exist. All their functions can be farmed out to the state police with an overarching cooperative body run by the states. Everything the FBI does can be done by other agencies and institutions such as Secret Service, federal marshalls and state police. They plan on turning America into a total police state with their agency at the center. A new HQ is their way of announcing their power to the nation. Let's see if anyone can knock them off their perch.

2023-01-31

Retiring a WAG

This WAG didn't work out with stocks rallying instead of sinking into a bear market. Posting it here in memorium as it will be deleted now.

Jack Ma Rally Adds a Triple

Holy moly. Jack Ma Rally Triples on Tuesday

2023-01-27

The 40-Year DJIA Chart Resembles 1928-1929

Tesla too! I don't take this too seriously. Bears are depressed and I noticed some similarity between 1900-920 and 1960-1980, and then wanted to see if the bull markets looked similar. Markets are fractal though, with similar patterns at larger and smaller time scales. Human nature doesn't change either. Maybe there's something to it?

2023-01-26

Palladium Breaks Support

Here are prior posts where I used palladium as a signal to short Nasdaq.

Who Wants to Short Commodities?

Nasdaq and Palladium

The Top is Coming

There can be a large gap in time between the moves. I view palladium as the leader here because it broke a major topping pattern. If it recovers, perhaps Nasdaq is leading short-term. A palladium and Nasdaq top are consistent with what I expect for a bear market and transition to new bull market with new leaders.

2023-01-22

QQQJ Charts 2

QQQJ Charts

These are interesting charts I saw in the QQQJ ETF, the Nasdaq Next 100 (101-200). Plus SCCO, which is hinting at stagflation breaking out.

2023-01-06

The Ride Never Ends: China to Inflate Housing Again

It seems like the world is out of ideas.

iFeng: 楼市重磅!央行、银保监会:新房价格连降3个月,可放宽首套房贷利率下限

Reuters: China property shares firm on more policy support, easing curbs

The central bank said on Thursday that for cities where the selling prices of new homes fall month-on-month and year-on-year for three consecutive months, the floor on mortgage rates can be lowered or abolished for first-time home buyers in phases.

China is also planning to relax restrictions on borrowing for property developers by dialing back the "three red lines" policy, Bloomberg News reported on Friday.

The property sector, which accounts for a quarter of China's economy

Macau Casinos Invest

iFeng: 澳门赌枱重新洗牌,"赌王"之女成最大赢家

Reuters: Macau casinos deal themselves a tough hand with big non-gaming investment pledges

Casinos have committed to investing a total of $15 billion in the coming decade, 90% of which must be spent on non-gaming.

But operators will find it hard to monetise their non-gaming ventures given their poor track record since 2001, when the former Portuguese colony first liberalized the industry, executives and analysts said.

Non-gaming revenues, which averaged around 5% of overall gaming revenues pre-COVID, must grow to more than 30% in the next decade, said Ben Lee, founder of Macau gaming consultancy IGamiX.

2023-01-04

BGI

I'm in a weird spot both recognizing Chinese stocks are cheap on fundamentals, but also a bear market or global recession isn't going to be good for them either. Much more interested in owning something like CGN with a 5 percent dividend yield, than Alibaba or Baidu that is responsible for the pop in FXI today.
The impetus for the move today is the government signaling it will inflate the currency and restart the housing bubble. Interest rates are already falling in China and the 10-year yield is below 3 percent.

Bloomberg: China’s Pledge to Lift Consumption Sparks Debate on Cash Handouts

iFeng: 利好来了!公积金贷款利率下调

2023-01-03

Bullish Reasons Stocks Can Rise in 2023

Here's the answer to them:
Social mood rules all. The GOP can't even elect a speaker.

Within the past hour: McCarthy not backing down from speaker bid after heated meeting with GOP: 'I'm not going anywhere'

China will open pandora's box in 3 weeks.

2022-12-26

Lockdown to "Pandemic:" Covid, Flu and Cold Cases Go Wild in China and the USA

WSJ: China to Open Borders Despite Surge in Covid Cases
A sign outside the Peking Union emergency room warned patients it could take more than four hours to see a doctor. A nurse at Peking Union’s fever clinic said that for weeks patients had been forced to wait in the hallways for beds to open up. One elderly patient, unable to secure a bed, was lying on a metal bench just inside the entrance of the fever clinic.

A nurse at Peking University First Hospital’s emergency room said beds there were all full and the wait time at the internal medicine department was roughly six hours. The hospital public address system announced that nearly 50 patients were waiting to be seen.

A Beijing taxi driver said Monday that most of his recent passengers were traveling to hospitals.

I don't know if China is suffering a pure covid wave or an everything wave, but the USA is suffering a cold and flu wave. Many stores are out of cold and flu medicine, in particular children's. During lockdowns, flu and cold viruses continued spreading and mutating, but in smaller numbers. This prevented normal herd immunity. China didn't have nearly as much mRNA vaccine, so the lack of immune system challenges is clearly a factor.

Chinese were paranoid about covid a month ago. I think experience is the best teacher and they will be over this fear quickly. If the lockdowns damaged immune systems and herd immunity though, then perhaps China will suffer several waves of illness stretching into the next cold and flu season at the end of 2023.

The scientists promoting lockdowns were fools, the governments were fools and the doctors were fools for going all with it all. Whatever you may or may not be suffering, this is the direct result of lockdowns. The total bill for these totalitarian, anti-common sense, anti-science policies still hasn't been finalized.

2022-12-18

Going to Extremes

I talked about EXTR again today and went into some ways I dig up potential trades and investments.

FAN Gets Winded at Resistance Again

How many touches is enough?
On the other hand, could have 30 percent of downside before hitting major support.

2022-12-16

Auto Lending Trouble

A Twitter thread. tl;dr Car prices have plunged so much that consumer would owe on loans when trading in a car. The lenders will give them new loans anyway and ignore that part, assuming they'll default on the older loan. Yay auto sales!