Prices Have Peaked, Sales Are Falling and the Giants Are Trembling

Even the giants of Chinese real estate are facing a major slowdown.

As of May 25, of 12 major cities, only Wuhan saw a yoy increase in sales of 5%. Hangzhou sales were down 53%, Beijing down 47%, Shenzhen down 36%. Sales are up yoy, led by 13.6% in Shanghai, followed by Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, but prices are barely growing mom. Together with falling sales volume, it equals falling sales for developers.

Vanke sales were about 5.2 million sqm and ¥67 billion from January through April, up 8.7% and 19.6% respectively, yoy. However, sales are declining and the outlook is not optimistic. Furthermore, most of Vanke's January sales of ¥28 billion was carryover from the end 2013. If those figures are subtracted, Vanke is already experiencing negative sales growth. Other big developers (¥100 billion+ sales) have even uglier numbers: China Overseas Land sales and area are down 12.4% and 22.3%; Poly Real Estate is down 9.5% and 22%.

Among the developers with ¥50 billion in sales, China Resources Land looks the worst, with sales down 40% and area sold down 32%. Clearly, if prices start to fall, the sales figures will quickly fall below the decline in area sold, as it has for CRL.

Vanke prices are still up this year, ¥11,665/ sqm in April, up 4.3% yoy, but down 2.1% from March and the third straight monthly decline.

The article also quotes Shih Wing Ching, founder of Centaline, as saying the firm has more than 10,000 employees on the ground in China so their assessment can't be wrong. There is a clear oversupply in the second- and third-tier cities and the large developers are beating a strategic retreat to avoid having stranded capital, better to take some losses and get out quick. Current home buyer demand is not enough to soak up demand and investors are avoiding the market. He also agreed with Pan Shiyi that the greatest risk is for financial products such as trusts, WMPs and private equity.

Related from WSJ: China's Game of Real-Estate Chicken: Who Will Blink First: Buyers, Developers or the Government? Developers. They will blink first or they will be flattened by oncoming traffic.

support the domestic property market continues to boom in sales area and sales prices of two core indicators, the sales area has been reversed, and have fallen sharply, although the average selling price remained high, but the trend has now peaked and began turn down.

When to June, the Spring Festival, the traditional off-season turnover and other factors can not explain the downturn has been the face of the property market.

Whether or civil official statistics data giant housing prices are a reflection of reality: China has entered the real estate industry to rely solely on price-driven growth in the danger zone.

Data display, including China Vanke, Poly Real Estate, China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, including the giant housing prices before the sales area four months of this year have fallen sharply, in addition to Vanke, the majority of the former giant in April fell more than 20% of the sales area. After entering April, Vanke has started nationwide sales price.

Hong Kong property Godfather, Zhongyuan Group founder Shih Wing Ching, said in an interview, once exposed to the mainland property market problems, it is possible from one extreme to another.

"April has started down the volume, in May than in April, I believe it will fall more and we have clearly felt that the market is changing, almost quantitative change to qualitative change has been the" Shih Wing Ching said.

Sales comprehensive emergency 

Circumstances are changing.

As of May 25, the China Index Research Institute's 12 major cities monitored, only volume appeared in Wuhan rose about 5%, and the rest fell. Among them, the largest decline in Hangzhou, was 53.13%; Beijing, followed by a decline of 47.21%; Shenzhen decline ranked third, 36.3%.

Although the data does not mean all, but continuous data indicates that the trend has changed.

Data from all parties to see, the situation is the domestic real estate industry while selling prices, the other side of the sales slump. Immeasurable rely prices rise, many giant housing prices remained a relatively irrational exuberance.

May 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released data show that in April into the monitoring of the 70 cities, prices rose despite the narrowing, but representing a decrease of only one, 69 are still rising, where the deep north of Guangzhou and other cities are still double-digit gains year on year.

Among them, the highest increase was Shanghai, which rose to 13.6% in the first place, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and then were up 11.2%.

But the reverse of the coin, but it is another cold reality. In the real estate industry sales volume and sales prices of two core indicators, prices sideways up sales area was sharply down.

Shanghai Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the Shanghai market turnover of new housing area of ​​1.8 million square meters, representing a decrease of 37%.

Beijing first quarter volume of 16,418 new residential units, down 41.3 percent, down 55.8 percent, the highest since 2005, the lowest quarterly volume of new homes.

Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Commission data show that in the first quarter of this year, Shenzhen, turnover fell more than four percent. April 2936 in Shenzhen's new residential transaction sets, up sharply decreased by 25.5%.

Housing prices are leading sales performance this year in April, also confirms the reality of this embarrassment.

Data show that from January to April this year, Vanke total sales area of ​​5.243 million square meters, the sales amount of 66.98 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7% and 19.6% compared to the same period in 2013. But in volume and price increase does not match the two data. In fact, Vanke sales area fell for two consecutive months, 2014 sales situation is not optimistic.

Compared to data adjusted for Vanke, some of the other giants even more ugly.

The same period, the cumulative sea real estate property sales contract of approximately HK $ 45.565 billion, down 12.4%; gross floor area of ​​2.648 million square meters, down 22.32%.

Poly Real Estate from January to April contracted area decreased by 22.17% to 2.84 million square meters; contract amount decreased by 9.45 percent to 36.398 billion yuan.

While in the second tier of 50 billion housing prices equally worrying situation.

Data show that the first April Lake real estate contract sales of 12.61 billion yuan, with a decrease of 5.9% compared to last year, the contract sales area of ​​1.146 million square meters, down 11%.

China Resources Land contract sales of approximately 13.67 billion yuan, down 40.95 percent, construction area of ​​1,297,400 square meters of sales, down 32.14%.

From the above data is not difficult to see that in the first four months of this year, including Poly Real Estate, China Overseas Property, Lake Property, China Resources Land and other leading housing prices have been marked decline in sales.

In other words, if the price is still not a significant increase over the same period, the total sales of housing prices will be very ugly.

Housing prices peaked giant growth

If the first two years of the volume and price to fly fairly basic support, and now China has entered the real estate industry to rely solely on price-driven growth in the danger zone.

In fact, even the first four months of sales area increased by 8.7%, sales amounted to 66.98 billion yuan Vanke, the growth it has become weak.

Because most people do not know is that in January 27.65 billion yuan Vanke's sales, mostly from 2013 retained.

SW study shows, because the Spring Festival, China Vanke push plate January is not high, but before the accumulated about 35 billion has been subscribed to be contracted resources, reflected in sales in the first quarter of this year.

Vanke secretaries are pro-Cheng Tan Huajie, Vanke's January sales majority from 2013 has been subscribed, but not yet completed the signing part.

If deducted Tan Huajie mouth "majority", Vanke actual sales this year will undoubtedly negative growth.

In fact, in recent years the rapid Vanke onrush, housing prices contributed.

Data show that in May 2012, Vanke national average price of 10,252 yuan sales / square meter; while in May 2013, the average selling price rose to 11,604 yuan / square meter, up 1,352 yuan per square meter.

According to the latest data show that in April 2014, Vanke sales price of 11,665 yuan / square meter, a decline of 2.1%, but also continuous in March decreased numbers. But the year, the average sales of Vanke's still up 4.31%.

In fact, many have entered the price of housing prices driven growth phase, the most obvious example is the Dragon Lake.

Data show that in 2013, Lake recorded contract sales reached 48.12 billion yuan, an increase of 20%, but during the period, a total construction area increased sales grew by only 2% to 4,261,200 square meters, selling price 11,293 yuan, an increase over last year 17.6%.

In Haitong International seems to improve LONGFOR price is mainly due to the nationwide housing prices and sales contribution from the western decline.

If the Chinese real estate industry in recent years of irrational exuberance, the rise in house prices is their main weapon.

Look back at the 2013 hurricane giants.

2013, before the financial record May sales price of 21,020 yuan / square meter, an increase reached 29.8%; Vanke before May sales price for 11,550 yuan / square meter, an increase of 10%; Hengda average price 6548 yuan / square meter, up 7.5 percent year on year; former Shimao May average selling price of 12,882 yuan / square meter, an increase of 10.7%.

That is why, in May 2013, the majority of enterprise performance benchmarking ideals, including China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, Poly Real Estate, such as housing prices have completed more than half of the annual sales target.

And now, with the slump in sales, housing prices alone has been unable to maintain its former prosperity.

Relative to sales targets set at the beginning, the first four months in recent years, most of the progress is quite slow sales of housing prices. In addition to the annual sales target of conservative Evergrande completed more than 30%, the former housing prices Shimao performance, financial innovation in China, R & F Properties, Golden Group and other targets in April of the year accounted for about two percent.

Deutsche Bank research report that Hopson, BCL, Golden Group, Powerlong, CCRE, offshore real estate, etc. 9 housing prices or unable to complete the sales target this year, in the coming months if the price or increase sales efforts , is likely to result in significant cash flow problems.

The most obvious example is that this year, the country's housing fund was exposed strand breaks case there are more than 10 cases, including Zhejiang, Ningbo, Nanjing, Wuxi, Hefei, Anhui, Hubei Xiangyang, Shaanxi Shenmu other places, such as Ningbo Fenghua Xing Yun home, Haining Nanjing Jiangning Ying Jia Lide estate and real estate, etc., mostly small and medium housing prices.

And did not fall down dilemma

Consequences of declining sales is rising inventories.

E-House Real Estate Institute of monitoring shows that the end of April, the total amount of 35 cities in new commodity housing stock is 249 million square meters, growth of 2.6 percent, an increase of 19.5%, the highest in nearly five years, a record high.

View CRIC Research Center believes that the current round of price shocks great catch of 2011 when the market price of a nationwide trend, six pack none appeared again on the product category, mainly just need the product, the size of the housing enterprises are involved .

First, the price is still a drop in 2008 brought the country Vanke.

May 24, located in Guangzhou Panyu Hungnam Avenue just need the market launch of 204 sets of houses Opal Vanke, the average selling price of about 15,000 to 16,800 yuan / square meter. And a month before China Vanke Opal average price of 21,092 yuan net signed / square meter, the price fell nearly 30 percent from the previous month.

Information obtained showed the Economic Observer reported, Vanke has a sale in a number of key cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and so on. And the magnitude intense.

Vanke insiders Economic Observer newspaper said, Vanke internal long as the price is ready, Shenzhen Vanke company back in April on a small set the tone, ready to cut prices of dumped goods.

In the above executives view, once the various disguised concessions can not support such increases, developers will take price cuts, price cuts may be between 10-15%.

The problem is that not all developers have cut prices of both strength and confidence.

Overseas Property in the report shows that the net profit achieved in the sea of ​​about 18.3 billion yuan last year, the real estate industry for 12 consecutive years ranked first, its high profit margins have always been regarded as the industry benchmark.

But housing prices is the trend of decline in the profitability of the entire industry, in the sea last year, gross margin declined from the settlement in 2012 of 38% to 33%.

Vanke figures also reflect this trend. Vanke 2013 settlement gross margin was 23.69%, down 3.72 percentage points compared with 2012; 2013 net profit margin of 12.76% settlement, down 1.16 percentage points compared with 2012. This is the fourth year of the balance sheet profit Vanke declined.

But price is not necessarily useful.

A state-owned enterprise executives in the room when accepting an interview with the Economic Observer newspaper said that at present, most of the real estate that opened not open, open not move. Housing prices this year almost all of the opening rate fell to 4 percent or less, compared with about 7 percent last year, showing sales slowed.

As for how the future of real estate trends, hardly anyone can tell. Hong Kong property has a godfather Shih Wing Ching said the representative of a certain word.

In an interview, Shih Wing-ching said that we have tens of thousands of employees in the Mainland, like detectors placed a texture in the mainland property market, we feel it should not be wrong.

It seems that the Shih Wing Ching, second and third tier cities oversupply situation has clearly exposed. In addition to the money will just need to enter the market, the investors must be shunned. Just to be alone is impossible at present to digest such a huge supply.

Shih Wing Ching said levelheaded developers have realized that the crisis is approaching, has begun to deploy strategic retreat. They know that in the second-tier cities should be discounted clearance as soon as possible, even if some of the losses suffered, but also an early departure. Otherwise, the funds could quilt dead, after carrying this burden too long.

And Pan Shiyi, like Shih Wing Ching considered the weakest link, the biggest risk is the financial products. In Shih Wing Ching seems to have had a central policy to restrict excessive bank injected funds to the real estate industry, but the developers or the use of trusts, financial products, private equity funds in disguise sets out to put money in the bank, which is now part of the money is about to expire a. Old debt is the preferred method, but the problem is that if the house no longer marketable, falling house prices, they may be hard to smooth financing from the market, the old debt would go wrong.

Pan Shiyi Slams Price Limits As Immoral and Against Common Sense

Pan Shiyi said this on price decline limits:
"In the first few pages of the textbook you must have a diagram, a line on a graph called the supply curve, another line called the demand curve, the intersection of the two lines corresponding to the horizontal axis is the volume, the vertical axis is the market price. This is the ABC of economics, it is common sense. If someone artificially limits price, to let some people make money, which is to dominate the market, this is immoral. "

30-Minute Special on Hangzhou Real Estate Market

The Hangzhou price decline restriction story has gone viral in China. CCTV ran a 30 minutes special on the city's situation on their 《Business Half Hour》 program. Below is the video, the very long accompanying article.

Click through to see the video: 《经济半小时》 20140530 来自楼市一线的报道:杭州

The article is mainly a transcript of the report.

The first saleswoman interviewed says all the discounted homes have been sold and they cannot sell anymore at ¥10,000 /sqm because of the government rules, so the price is back up to ¥20,000 /sqm. The salesman just before 9 minutes in the video, when asked if prices would fall, said the odds are small because the government limits the price.

At 10 minutes, a developer said he set a low fixed priced on a building recently and it has still fallen in price. But his building is in a disaster area, prices are down 30% and even 50% and sales volume is still weak. He said they aren't buying any land because their land inventory is still large.

A developer at 14 minutes says developers are starting to cooperate on projects to reduce risk.

At 16 minutes, the voice over says that at this agency, the reporter saw people making calls all day trying to sell existing homes, but nobody had any success.

At 19 minutes, the agent says even existing home buyers want discounts of 10 to 20%.

At 21 minutes, a researcher says Hangzhou has 97,000 homes, among them 15,000 where developers obtained advance sale permits, but they have not sold the homes. Instead, they went to the bank and use it as collateral for loans. It will take about 16.5 months to sell all of this inventory.

At 21:30 discussion of land sales, in 2013 at the peak Hangzhou sold ¥130 billion in land. This year through May, Hangzhou has only sold ¥40 billion. He later says home sales are down more than 70% or 80%.

This paragraph sums it up:
Hangzhou prices really drop, if the previous preferential discounts were "still partly concealed", now you can use "straight down" to describe the market. Reporter's investigation found that despite the current rates of loosening the central city of Hangzhou is not obvious, listings away from the city center, as well as newly released real estate pricing information is quite favorable, price cuts are not groundless. As the price war spreads, on the one hand it has sparked discontent among property owners, on the other hand, there property market is seeing a positive atmosphere, for all this, what do developers think?

[After the experience of the Horse, "the first drop storm", Hangzhou property market but also involved in the "limit down order" whirlpool. Recently, Hangzhou prices, housing authorities jointly issued regulations, beginning from May 26, the price of housing prices all over the record price of 15% of the network will not be able to sign, the price needs to be reported, the market interpreted this move as a "limited descending order. " 】 Hangzhou estate murmur heard about the ups and downs of news, upsets buyers panic panic, and simply can not discern the true situation. To poke Rates Change the fog, CCTV Finance "economic half-hour" reporter Hangzhou estate field research.

Hangzhou property involved in the "limit down order" whirlpool buyers panic panic

Since February this year, the price shot Hangzhou first started. Dickson Beihai Park straight down 4,000 yuan per square meter. Tianhong · Champs immediately follow, starting from 17,200 yuan / square meter fell to 11,800 yuan / square meter. Then the major real estate property costs reduction, car bit concessions, multiple gift, smashing the golden eggs and other promotions on stage.

Into the second quarter, Hangzhou property market pressure to bear a greater risk of mid-May, the largest local real estate Hangzhou Greentown Song Weiping, chairman of the transfer of shares, Wharf Sunac China and completion of the acquisition, holding 24.313%, tied for the first Greentown largest shareholder. May 23, Hangzhou introduction of market "restriction order", the transaction price is lower than the record price of not more than 15% of net signed. Hangzhou property market is undergoing changes triggered further concern in the market. May 23, on the restriction order issued the same day, the reporter came to the northern part of Xiaoshan in Hangzhou, a real estate sector.

Sales staff: You are late, basically there is no good, and know nothing of this message.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Are you saying you were robbed?

Sales staff: Basically no.

The sales staff, told reporters before the house down more than ten thousand per square meter has been sold. The other is preparing a sale, but Hangzhou suddenly issued a "limited descending order." So had to discount to sell the house to sell not only a return to the price of twenty thousand per square meter.

Sales staff: Limit orders are now out, under the limit order beginning Monday.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: What do you mean?

Sales staff: Housing Authority will not let down, because now if a real drop in some places, and people get cheap developer, he is now selling the land, then sell, and no one buys it.
The sales staff said that after descending order is limited, developers are faced with to get hit in the hands of embarrassment, and for consumers, there are some banks from the beginning of the first suite of mortgage interest rates will be adjusted to the maximum go up 20%. This all leads to the property market turnover fell Hangzhou cliff-style presentation.

Sales staff: Our monthly, then a month ago, then a person can still sell at least seven or eight sets, and now a month two or three sets of each person anyway.

Subsequently, the reporter arrived at Hangzhou Binjiang area of ​​an estate. They found that some people view room just to the place, not into the sales office on the left again.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: get in here, ah? Let go ah?

Consumers: ah.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: door shut it? Sales offices.

Consumers: not closed, there is someone to go with.

"Economic half-hour" reporter: no one with the entrance ah?

Consumers: ah, he was afraid it was trouble.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Why do you want to return home?

Consumers: is falling too much.

Came to the door estate construction site, the reporter saw a lot of people playing the black and white banner, prominently above the words "deposit back" "check out" a "trap" and other slogans.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Do you do here is to check out?

Consumers: Yes.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: What is the reason?

Consumers: in front of a high-speed rail, then simply do not have a say. 

See reporters showed the intention to buy a house, which requires consumers to check out kindly reminded reporters that house prices fall much, should be carefully considered.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: How much you was a square meter?

Consumers: We fixed the time it was the cheapest nearby.

Consumers: time to buy the most expensive, the cheapest ten thousand seventy-eight.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Now what?

Consumers: now eleven thousand eight hundred.

The consumer explained that before the prices per square meter ten thousand seventy-eight now become eleven thousand eight hundred, seven thousand six straight down the house. Coupled with the worry that the high-speed rail nuisance, so they forced to check out claims. See the reporter insisted Qukan Fang, a consumer up advice.

Owner: this lot rob a house you do not rush, do not rush, rush house this lot are not up to grab. When real estate to build a high-speed rail, you can not sell 5,000 yuan a square. 

Part owner of the name "check out" the banners

Part owner of the name "check out" the banners

Reporters found that the refund check out here requires owners of more than 20, they just sat quietly banners, no one to deal with their complaints.

Owners say exactly how regarding high-speed rail construction going on? Now the prices really like the owners say is a six-seven thousand per square meter fell right, the decline in value so much, because the repair high-speed rail, there are other factors that lead to? To uncover these questions, the reporter to the sales center, but came to the door was stopped by security.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: We came to see the master of the house, can be hired?

Security: have someone with you.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: I have a friend, specifically gave the phone.

Security: You call him and let him come pick you up.

After some reporters contacted to confirm the identity of the reporter was showings after a sales staff to come to collusion. He explained to us the real reason for the sales office is containment.

Sales staff: We price this price about 360,000.

"Economic half-hour" reporter: that a house?

Sales staff: ah.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: They say that high-speed rail how things ah?

Sales staff: No, wait a minute the sales office told you this thing, then here is also not particularly comfortable.

"Stay away from high-speed rail is also my school district," the silent protest

"Stay away from high-speed rail is also my school district," the silent protest

The sales staff to explain once again affirms that high-speed rail construction has never been approved by. The key is too sensitive to recent substantial price cuts.

Sales staff: At the time of the EIA car safety investigation if not passed, the railroad is not made, so to buy this land. Last year's words are not the things people say high-speed rail and the school district this year mainly because they (consumers) proceeded to lose a large part of the money.

Sales staff explained that this project is not short opening time, developers hope to return the funds as soon as possible, so the prices reflect market several changes.

Sales staff: Originally, we sold last year at a total price of $ 74 floor price of 10,007 $ 19, the equivalent here now costs about 6,000 financial full count, then the cost is 6,000, then sold 10,007 $ 19 is profit.

Last year's prices have sold seventeen thousand nine hundred per square meter, but the start of the year, Hangzhou and then greet price surges. They are forced to cut prices.

Sales staff: Hardcover, then 10,003 thousand five or so. Each apartment, the whole case is that each apartment is down 3,000 5-4 thousand or so.

Although prices fell, but did not return as scheduled sales. In order to attract customers, they played a special room.

Sales staff: the cheapest is the set of 11800.

From 17,900 to 11,800, a significant drop is straight-out claims fuse owners. And the sales staff bluntly, this situation some of the price of real estate in Hangzhou are prevalent. Leave the Riverside area, the reporter went to a nearby sales center Qianjiangxincheng central enterprises belongs. Although the weekend, but no sales offices throughout the room to ask a consumer point of view.

Sales staff: We are more than 900 households, and now the word is left more than 200 families, mostly large, 170.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: This is what opened the year?

Sales staff: 2012.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: It is nearly two years time.

Opened more than two years, as well as a quarter of the listings did not sell, the sales staff was market before, but he currently has his own understanding of prices.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Do you think the prices will drop you here?

Sales staff: drop if unlikely, because here it is not out of a limit order. Therefore, government regulation, then again, the first did not want the price rise too high, but do not want the price to go down. If you go down, it will certainly cause a lot of consequences. This is a government, the whole, the majority of government revenue it is land.

Hangzhou prices partly concealed lute no longer crazy "straight down"

Hangzhou prices really drop, if the previous preferential discounts or "still holds partly concealed", now you can use "straight down" to describe. Reporter survey found that despite the current rates of loosening the central city of Hangzhou is not obvious, but some listings away from the city center, as well as new real estate released pricing information is quite favorable, price cuts are not groundless, as the price war spread On the one hand is the purchase of property owners has sparked discontent, on the other hand, it is rising property market in Hangzhou see atmosphere, for all this, the developer now is how mind?

Zhu Lidong Hangzhou, where the local real estate company is a veteran business. Earlier this year, after the first price in Hangzhou two properties, they also add to price changes, followed by the amount of force.

Riverside Group Deputy General Manager Zhu Lidong: four real estate when we set the pricing on the relatively cheap price of less than 10,003, it was another brother leading private real estate when he met you like this real estate given the low price, but from the price point of view, given the real estate prices, the price itself is a heavy hit.

However, what is worrying is that the market has entered a freezing of Hangzhou, regional house prices more than 30% or even 50% decline, the price did not return a considerable volume.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: So this, then, Riverside and took new land it?

Riverside Group Deputy General Manager Zhu Lidong: So far not yet.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Why would not such an action?

Riverside Group Deputy General Manager Zhu Lidong: our inventory, the amount of reserves, or more. If you follow the sales, according to the current price to calculate the value of sixty billion is probably still around. So, included in Hangzhou, including in the field.

Zhu Lidong told reporters that their biggest task is to consume the stock as soon as possible. However, due to low mortgage interest rates, there is no obvious attraction when the asset transfer pricing. Therefore, the real estate company's financing is not optimistic, especially some of the weak developers, in order to maintain the capital chain, regardless of the cost of shattering, hides a huge risk.

Riverside Group Deputy General Manager Zhu Lidong: Hangzhou soil in accordance with the words of your teeth, you can top, top How much time? Your roof, for example, like us, longer than some people may be able to top the time, but you say that the market bad for six months, it can be a bad year, or even a year and a half bad, bad years of it, you see who can stand?

Zhu Lidong frankly stated at the time to get involved in the real estate market in the past two decades, he often travels with shackles feeling is, when you need to buy bids, the highest price can be rather time to sell the house, the purchase of a variety of limited credit policy has affected the market, as a developer, he was really looking forward to strictly follow the rules of the market business environment.

The price of real estate open quotient play slogan

The price of real estate open quotient play slogan

Riverside Group Deputy General Manager Zhu Lidong: land market, product sales market, and a social order in which the transaction is also a market, then you die to live your own choice. But now the question is often, it is sometimes the market, sometimes administration.

And Zhu Lijun originated native is different, Wu Wei from Shanghai after the real estate company started stationed in Hangzhou market. But over the past two years, the ups and downs of the real estate trends in Hangzhou, so they had any time to adjust coping strategies.

Wu Wei, vice president of Jingrui Property Group: When we started, we entered the Yangtze River Delta is the third-tier cities, for example, we begin the first project in Zhoushan, Zhejiang here is the project, we have Huzhou project late, but we Two years ago we made adjustments to the overall strategy, we are more concerned about market performance in the Yangtze River Delta here is relatively good second-tier cities.

Wu Wei told reporters that in 2013, Hangzhou city's land premium of up to more than 1300 billion yuan, ranked in the forefront of the country. They had entered the market to get high, but no less than once per auction fever premium rates should allow them to make the most prudent judgment.

Wu Wei, vice president of Jingrui Property Group: Although we said that last year, and now it is three took place, but in the end we may live hundreds of reconnaissance on the block, we may be several ten Keyan, we participate in the auction also took three or four ten, so that behind all this there is a lot of work to do. But these things do not do so, it might make some of this wrong impulses.

Although a summer, but according to Wu Wei with ice to describe the reality of the real estate market. Many developers now facing a "price dead loss, not price die" situation, in order to reduce the debt ratio, they are more willing to jointly develop, together with other developers, "heating."

Wu Wei, vice president of Jingrui Property Group: From the current market situation, will take some more cooperative manner, with some room to do some joint enterprise development, cooperative manner to do some projects, so in fact able to mitigate some of the market risks.

Severe adverse impacts to the real estate agent market situation increasingly depressed secondary housing market

People familiar with the property market in Hangzhou remember, February 15, 2012, Founder Lotus Pond fired the first shot of the price of the property market in Hangzhou Dragon, more than 160 houses were sold out basically. Followed by La Cité in the sea and other real estate sectors have followed suit. Year in March, Hangzhou property market Jedi, rushed volume sets 4319, almost equal to the peak in 2009, the "price change" effect is very obvious. However, the same is the "price" began in 2014 in Hangzhou property market already shrunk. As the film felt by developers, which will generate future regional market pressure is not small, and this pressure is rapidly transmitted to the secondary housing market.

Although the current market situation more severe, but the store manager Zhang Xiaodong daily morning meeting must be unshakeable. Mobilizing and encouraging employees to become the main work of Zhang Xiaodong recently.

Sumitomo Realty Mandarin store manager Zhang Xiaodong: This year's prices will Yishoufang words, relatively deserted, some customers, it may be out of the school district, or lots of considerations, will settle down will buy second homes, so for us to , said after the Housing Fair is an opportunity.

Zhang Xiaodong told reporters that the just-concluded Hangzhou Housing Fair, the number of houses on the first day turnover of only one. Called bleak. Let Yishoufang market slump has become secondary housing market bust up.

Intermediary Clerk: Hello Chen, I was Wang. Today you see the house? Karrie Xiyuan there is a 97 square feet, the price 2,600,000. House well, you have not seen, and read like talk about it later. Do not look ah.

Second-hand housing intermediary posting ads

Second-hand housing intermediary posting ads

During the reporter shooting, although the staff were kept high emotions, kept calling visit customers, but without a clear intention to purchase. Zhang Xiaodong also explained that, unless it is just to be or have special requirements, or second-hand housing turnover is very difficult.

Sumitomo Realty Mandarin store manager Zhang Xiaodong: We deal in a month, is 20 sets. So like this year, then in March, then there is no. So this month, as we have a store in itself, then, in general, it is one of about seven or eight, just like the current deal four this month alone.

This real estate agency at the door, the reporter found that posted a substantial recruitment revelation. Because the open years, the amount of monthly orders decline, facing sluggish market, many agency employees were forced to resign.

Zhang Xiaodong: Some brokers, then there might not withstand the pressure of the atmosphere which, like our side, then there are four or five months, did not open a single class, and there may exit the industry.

Zhang Xiaodong explained that he was familiar with many of the stores are currently not profitable, this state if one stays for six months, still no big problem, but what happens after six months, he was very worried. Face an uncertain future in the future, he is very good year to miss the market.

Zhang Xiaodong: Just like the year 2009, it is possible to earn back the money the year after. That includes last March there may be some good broker month, six months or a year-round money back, and the market is not about us.

Intermediary stores at the door, the reporter met a rushed over from Fujian old couple, after they heard this time it is real estate prices in Hangzhou, came to see the house.

Consumers: We want to compare. We compare with Xiamen, in the end is here, your house, your house or Xiamen.

"Economic half-hour" reporter: now have the results yet?

Consumers: Now not the result of it.

"Economic half-hour" reporter: still another look.

Consumers: ah.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Xiamen seems to have gone up.

Consumers: Xiamen amazing rise in the past with this place very far. Now up so badly.

In order to cope with the cold hand housing market, low turnover, since this time, another store manager Wei Shun-chi also started Yishoufang agent through interactive effects of the two markets would like to increase orders.

I love my family Gudang national store manager Wei Shun Chi: We in the secondary market for the extension, and then did not get the primary market, the customer used look bad, we'll take him to see first-hand, the relative hand we can also sell the same with the second-hand demand.

Wei Shun-chi told reporters that the property market sentiment is very serious, and consumer prices will continue to cut prices also have expectations. So, put out a lot of second-hand housing information, consumers generally heart-priced even lower than the listing price of 10% to 20%.

I love my family Gudang national store manager Wei Shun Chi: basically no more than two million of us here the cheapest Gudang 68 million, the highest set was 1.55 million, so we just need to fit it also.

In order to stabilize the team, reducing the risk of closed stores, Wei Shun-Chi has previously responsible for the development of a new core area two blocks, think through better allocation of resources and services to enhance the volume of orders.
I love my family Gudang national store manager Wei Shun Chi: Now a lot of policy uncertainty, customers are likely to wait and see, Hangzhou, prices start from March 2012, it had never been dropped.

From the anti-inflation policy shift could plunge into anti bring about real change in
the real estate market changes, often particularly sensitive to the feelings of the intermediary, from the movement of persons, loss of this market will be able to feel the change from hot to cold. So, the local government from the anti-inflation policy trends into anti-crash, Hangzhou property market will bring change?
Hangzhou property market has evolved from a variety of promotional discounts to straight down, then the change in the situation of the property market in Hangzhou, is a problem locally, or to some extent reflects the overall trend in the property market it?

Hangzhou new market opening statistics

Hangzhou new market opening statistics

Chenguang is a research property information professionals, Recently, he and his team have been through the most first-tier property market research data to analyze the market. He said that property prices down, which is slow to melt and listings, overstock serious are directly related.

Chief analyst Easy Home (China) CRIC Information Group Chenguang.Nonhydrodesulfurization: Throughout the inventory for not only inventory statistics, then restricted space, is that he got the pre-sale permit, but he did not sell, he is a direct mortgage to the bank, about fifteen thousand units, so the whole entire large urban Hangzhou, including Xiaoshan, Yuhang inventory is ninety-seven thousand sets, then the need to spend about sixteen and a half months.

Major is a real estate research firm in charge of local people in Hangzhou, Hangzhou, in his analysis of ten years of observation, that the current real estate prices and market volatility, it is derived from land sales in recent years, Hangzhou, developers mad rush ground results.

Han Jia real estate consultant John Major: Hangzhou peak can be sold for more than 1300 million of land in 2013, when, at its peak in 2009 can be sold for more than 1100 million of land, now much faster in May , and nearly half, but we land premium was hovering over 400 million.

Hangzhou land sales last year, up more than 1300 million Major judgment, according to the current price of ironclad static properties of loss or suspected loss will reach 30 or more. Then add the annual purchase volume in Hangzhou exactly how much? The time required to digest the land it? Analysts Chenguang gives such data.

Chief analyst Easy Home (China) CRIC Information Group Chenguang.Nonhydrodesulfurization: we measure it, the whole of Hangzhou, add new licensing of these people probably seventy-three thousand pairs, and then add the population, the new population in Hangzhou is about twenty thousand people. According to certain factors we considered, then the stability of the entire annual volume should be 55,000 at Hangzhou set to sixty thousand sets.

But that was not because of the fall in prices and exchange trading volume rises. Those supporting a steady annual turnover of the crowd, watching the mood is very strong, with the land market cooling, home sales in Hangzhou also enter "sleep" state.

Han Jia real estate consultant John Major: So far the statistical May 20, we only sell the annual 1.9 million square meters of housing, 1.9 million square meters of this amount accounted for 10 million of us, good amount of 8,000,000 , not to the amount of 6,000,000, third, or fifth, so this fall is very obvious.

However, China Real Estate Association researcher Lee Station army has held relatively optimistic. He believes that China's current construction is far reaching foreign urbanization ratio of 70%, the real estate market still has a long period of development potential.

China Real Estate Association chief researcher Lee Station Army: I do not agree with that argument simply crash and the inflection point, I think this decline is normal, the key is 2014 1-4 month, real estate transactions in 2012 than in 2011 or higher So I think this is a normal.

Lee believes the military station, a market analysis is good or bad, and not only from the ability to analyze data such as volume, the key depends on whether the ability to maintain an area of ​​continued investment. From his research data, one to four months, the magnitude of investment in Hangzhou property market even more than the national average.

Hangzhou eight districts of commercial housing stock charts

Hangzhou eight districts of commercial housing stock charts

Chinese real estate Station army chief researcher Lee: In today's economic conditions, real estate development and investment, to have a 15.7 increase in China among all the various economic industries, should say it considered high.

"Economic half-hour" Reporter: Is the country. That Hangzhou it?

Chinese real estate Station army chief researcher Lee: This is probably the case in Hangzhou, Hangzhou and development investment in terms of the total investment in real estate development completely 1 to April 53.9 billion, compared to last year, there is a 36% rate of increase.

But Liu Chenguang in his study found that the amount of excess inventory in Hangzhou, at least a third from a few years ago real estate speculators and real estate speculators who formed inferior stocks, these stocks will inevitably bring to the property market in Hangzhou stage adjusted.

E-House (China) Holdings Limited grams and chief analyst at Swiss Information Group Chenguang.Nonhydrodesulfurization: Too many manufacturing companies, too many traditional businesses, entered the real estate industry. Then if, in fact, there is not much development capabilities, but earn too much money, earn easy. Then came the market, they have no presence in product innovation, targeted reforms, or aspects of corporate governance, marketing, sales promotion and related efforts to do, so that today they have formed, the formation of the 30,000 sets in Hangzhou inferior stock, sell are not sold for three years. Therefore, we believe that this part of the business is supposed to be adjusted.

In fact, China Real Estate Association researcher Lee Station army most worried about is the quality of housing, if this also with falling house prices, he believes that this is the Chinese real estate market is really a crisis.
China Real Estate Association chief researcher Lee Station Army: I'd be worried about this situation, when a bad market when prices go down, the development of enterprises to provide housing for the quality of their own product prices decreased. I want lower prices, while not reducing the quality of quality, if the quality of lower quality, the market in my opinion is the real turning point, a real collapse.

[Half-hour observation]

Adjust prices in Hangzhou, not even speculation on the clamor dust collapse, but the situation is further apparent differentiation property. So, what criteria is it the property market collapse? According to foreign experience, the property market collapse must occur because of economic stagnation caused prices fell sharply circumstances, but fell by more than three years, such as Japan's "lost decade", and the United States in 2008 after the financial crisis of the property, may be considered collapse . The situation in Hangzhou, but not so. Of course, the phenomenon also remind the market price necessary risk prevention measures. Including Ordos and Wenzhou, falling house prices, has shown that after the past 10 years of rapid development, China's real estate industry is indeed in some respects has accumulated a considerable degree of foam, and local government reliance on land finance, but also makes a lot of cities Real estate investment and development over the scale of demand growth, if not adjusted, risk is difficult to avoid.


Haikou Offers Hukous to Homebuyers

Buy a home larger than 120 sqm and receive residence permits for a spouse, a child, and parents, up to 5 in all. Individuals can also obtain residence permits with a home purchase if they are age 25 or above, have been working in the city, paying taxes and social security for at least 3 years, or if a highly skilled or mid-level management employee has a 5 year work contract. This policy resembles Canada's immigration policy......

Haikou Municipal Standing Committee today passed "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Real Estate Market" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinion"), decided to increase the efficiency of real estate construction project approval, reasonable adjustments to limit real estate purchase conditions, regulate the behavior of pre-sales, reasonable assurance of real estate development of enterprise-scale commitment to develop, implement home buyers policy.

"Opinions" home buyers policies implemented since June 1 to buy a single set of building area of ​​120 square meters of new housing in Haikou City, the administrative area, and has been filed with the provincial contract buyers who may be in the city I am applying for registration, spouses and their parents for living together and unmarried children of the family planning account, apply for a registered account can not exceed the total number of five. Buyers home buyers by this policy can not be revoked or discharged home after filing contract; withdraw from the contract prior to filing the 2014 June 1, re-purchase the staff can not enjoy these home policy.

Purchase price of commercial housing conditions has also been a reasonable adjustment: from the age conditions, at least 25 years of age may apply for a separate single price of commercial housing residents; from the household registration conditions, the actual work in the city and pay pension insurance for three years, or to engage in individual operating and actually lived in the city for five years, or are planning to introduce or city personnel with intermediate professional titles or technician more vocational qualifications, master's degrees, and entered into service with the employer for more than 5 years of cumulative employment contract; from housing the area, the applicant and family members without a joint application area occupied housing or owner-occupied housing (including housing policy) use of an area less than 18 square meters per capita.

"Opinions" to cancel the construction project site plan approval for ≥ 4 hectares of land scale construction projects, such as land use control regulations have been approved for implementation Area, or land planning conditions have been identified, no longer repair regulations approval. Simplify the planning and design review of the internal circulation areas, expert consultation on construction projects, total construction area of ​​over capacity greater than 30,000 square meters increased to more than 60,000 square meters. Further compression processing time, location permits, land use permits, engineering permits, temporary construction approval, verification and planning program review completed a total 33 days.

"Opinions" regulate the behavior of the pre-sale, on the implementation of "urban image of the progress in project investment and other aspects of the real estate sale management approach ", calculated according to provide pre-sale of real estate, invest in the development and construction of more than 25% of the total investment in construction and has identified the construction schedule and completion dates, may apply for pre-sale permit, to accelerate the pace of listed real estate sales, increase the effective supply of housing, and further stabilize housing prices.

Real estate development companies undertake development scale obtain reasonable assurance: before November 1, 2013 has been made in real estate and get more qualified provisionally land development companies can bear 250,000 square meters of development and construction of the following projects; thereafter obtain provisional or more qualified Development Enterprises, its parent company has a development qualification, you can assume 250,000 square meters following the development and construction projects.  

It is understood that the "opinions" to the provisional execution ended December 31, 2014, depending on the implementation of the results and then determine whether to extend or adjust.

In Communist China, Economy Rebalances You

A valid concern:

No, China Isn't Really Rebalancing
The first sign of slowdown intolerance came in early March when China did what optimists hoped it wouldn't: announce another growth target. Every time data have suggested gross domestic product might slip below that 7.5 percent line, Beijing has been quick to rev the engine yet again.

Stimulus measures have included tax breaks, bigger investments in housing, faster spending on railways and other megaprojects, and front-loading of outlays at the provincial level. China's largest regional economy, Guangdong, is allocating more than $10 billion to boost growth. The National Development and Reform Commission, the central economic-planning agency, is mulling a $16 billion-plus fund for transportation that will solicit some private investment. The central bank, meanwhile, has eased up on its war against excess credit, and the shadow-banking system is still enabling inefficient state-owned enterprises across the nation.

Does any of this sound like the actions of government ready to let GDP fall to 6 percent, let alone 5 percent? Hardly, which is why economists at Nomura and UBS are rethinking second-quarter growth forecasts.

The Federal Reserve didn't rescue the U.S. economy with surprise rate cuts in August 2007 and the $168 billion Bush stimulus plan in early 2008 didn't help either. What governments want and what they get are two different things. Nothing proposed so far will prevent a crisis if one is coming.

I understand why the investment banks think China is going to take a step towards a major easing, but I still believe the odds are against it based on everything that has come out of Li Keqiang's mouth. Trusting a politician usually isn't a good idea, but I don't think Li is trying to misdirect with his frequent rejection of a major stimulus plan (and similar statements from party mouthpieces such as the People's Daily). You have to look at things from the Chinese perspective: "everyone" expects a bailout because that's always what happens. The government tries to slow things down, they get scared when the slowdown starts accelerating, and the bubble reflates. Everything up until this point indicates the government will not repeat this cycle. As an article in the WSJ notes, there's a game of chicken between government, developers and homeowners in the real estate market. Up until now, government always blinks first and their refusal to blink this time is still not believed. For this reason, there's a lot of pent up selling in real estate. There are a lot of firms fighting to stay open in the hopes that they survive long enough to see the bailout, rather than cashing it in and declaring bankruptcy. It's also unclear if the Ministry of Finance, which is not nearly as gung ho about reform as the PBOC, isn't being allowed to do some stimulus efforts as a political concession.

China Moves Towards Opening the Capital Account

Some have noted that China has recently eased liquidity conditions and this is cited as the mini-stimulus growing larger. One counterpoint is made by a Chinese analyst in the article below: China's central bank is easing monetary policy heading into June to avoid another cash crunch.

This article from the Economic Observer goes into detail about China's capital account opening, which is picking up speed. It starts with some warnings from Andy Xie and Goldman Sachs. Xie warns that a fixed exchange rate and open capital account will increase arbitrage and asset bubble risk. Goldman warns of outflows of Chinese capital. The chief economist at Mizuho is worried about superimposed economic cycles.

Regarding that last point, in all the talk of a slowdown and potential for crisis, there hasn't been a lot of discussion about how the reforms will affect the economy. Interest rate liberalization, opening the capital account and currency reform are major policy steps occurring right as the economy may have peaked in the business cycle. The effect of these reforms will be pro-cyclical in some cases and counter-cyclical in others, but as the economists note, the government cannot do one step in isolation otherwise it risks an unbalanced result. It will have to adjust everything simultaneously and that will trigger major changes for China at an already critical momentum for the economy.

6月“钱荒”或无二至 资本账户开放舞动中国节奏
approaching June fluidity special point in time, that 15 percent of China's capital account opening is urgent exploratory open it?

From the "About publishing cross-border foreign exchange regulations guarantee" notice "the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Hui Fa [2014] No. 29) to the central bank issued" China (Shanghai) split accounting business experimental implementation rules of free trade zones "," China (Shanghai) free trade zone split test prudent accounting business risk management rules, "the path leading to the yuan fully convertible capital account is coming.

Although China's central bank Shanghai headquarters, deputy director of the Shanghai Branch Zhang on May 22, said the free trade account is just a carrier, and tools; capital account liberalization, but the speed was truly happening.

Similarly, the SAFE official said, the 29th article of the basic guarantees to achieve a cross-border convertible. This suggests that "capital account convertibility a big step forward."

Independent economist Andy Xie told the Economic Observer reported, if fully open capital account, rather than a floating exchange rate, then arbitrage funds intensified, will lead to asset price bubbles inflated.

The latest report says Goldman Sachs, in the case of capital account liberalization, the scale of Chinese investment overseas funds will likely increase $ 6 trillion; capital outflow may gradually in batches.

Easy to see that the central bank today, after the Spring Festival is trying to give space for exchange rate flexibility, an arbitrageur combat, control liquidity; two warm-up capital can be described as an open project, trying to do the matching policy.

However, the supporting monetary policy alone is not enough it seems "coverage" China is gradually entering the risk of economic superimposed cycles. "This is really worrying, recent new policy in the financial sector a lot, but it is difficult to solve the problem from the root, the need to support fiscal reforms." Said Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities.

"Faucets and water" relationship

Less than a month, and a heavy document by promoting an open capital account. SAFE last month issued a "multinational centralized operational management of foreign exchange funds (Trial)" (Hui Fa [2014] No. 23) to enable the industry to exclaim its opening up great - regulatory shackles are leveraging debt, China's capital doors gradually loosened.

And the 29th Man aims decentralization, reform of the foreign exchange management of cross-border security, cross-border security to achieve basic convertibility, and in foreign uniform treatment. Lending areas, including warranty, contract remains the case registration link; outstanding loans within the field of security, allowing in foreign self-signed, and allows recognizance performance in a fold of the net assets.

FTA FTA association is called financial reform in the second quarter peak SAFE No. 23, 29 maybe less text "practical", which does not involve the transaction, but like an open capital account "infrastructure."

Zhang example, companies need only send a payment instruction, banks will be able to exchange their currency into foreign payments needs, while in the past the need to issue multiple instructions.

"Can not put free trade facilitation, investment and financing account fully equate it open only to investment and financing facilitation and an open capital account convertibility provides a carrier and tool;" Zhang said, "involves investment and financing facilitation to capital account convertibility, to do the work is not complete freedom of capital convertibility, but there are steps to make sub-categories managed capital account convertibility. "

Guotai Junan Securities chief economist Lin Caiyi interpretation of this passage is the relationship between the faucet and the water supply. "And announced one day, how much water, and then the next 'big opening up' conclusion is not too late." Lincai Yi said.

So, for now, free trade account can do what thing? "Conditions" indicates convertibility has been achieved on the business, including current and direct investment-related business, free trade within the capital account convertibility directly, not approved for business, the third part of the central bank 30 comments innovative business financing involved in various types of capital account convertibility business, not in the current free trade account. Implementation of the relevant parts of a mature one, when put to, various departments and central bank shall be to promote together.

A regulation with respect, FTA account equivalent to offshore accounts, previously only a few banks, banks and enterprises now have it. But "how to use the RMB debt accounts prudent macroeconomic management, and the future is open to other capital transactions with FTA Account" is unknown and so on.

But above all it seems at Chen Jianguang, an open capital account in accordance with the established timetable to go, probably 2015, 2016 years, that perhaps the interest rate market point in time. Coincident with the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in March for the first time today, a two-year deposit interest rate mentioned in the market schedule.

Liquidity unharmed?

Coincidentally, Liu Yuhui also believe that the system construction of China's capital account in an orderly manner. He said, it is easy to see, after the Spring Festival, there are signs of central bank intervention in the exchange rate, the goal is to suppress the system construction arbitrage and capital account.

Accordance with the "impossible trinity" theory that a country independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free capital flows can only choose two of the three goals. Central Bank officials said that in the long run, free capital flows and floating exchange rate system would be the inevitable choice of China.

This fact also explains the "capital flows, exchange rate fluctuations, independent monetary policy," the relationship. Capital account liberalization allows two-way cross-border capital flows together; present reality is confined to the central bank's intervention, are drawing the flow of capital within a period of changes in exchange rates.

According to Goldman Sachs report, along with the advance of capital account market, there will be more Chinese wealth invested in other parts of the world. Its cross-country comparisons show that in the case of capital account liberalization, the scale of Chinese investment overseas funds will likely increase $ 6 trillion. One third of the expected flow of global capital markets.

Data also show that, the effect of the RMB exchange rate changes on capital flows are gradually markedly. SAFE data show that in April 2014, the banking exchange surplus of 59.7 billion yuan, compared with March banking exchange surplus dropped by nearly 76%. Subtext is the recent devaluation, to a certain extent Hetui hot money arbitrage cross-border trade.

At the same time, every year in June the bank is a sensitive period: number of indicators deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio, dynamic reserve and other banks to the end of the quarter, half and end when the end of the audit. Seeing June sensitive time window approaching, the market began to worry about whether a similar extreme events like last year's money shortage will occur. "Liquidity basically unharmed, the central bank has already done related institutional arrangements, its standing lending to financial institutions can be a convenient tool 'emergency'." GF Securities chief economist Liu Yuhui said. Additionally, the market orientation of the central bank to transfer the CDB, CCB drain 500 billion, all in central bank hands.

On liquidity management issues, Liu Yuhui, the central bank's improved tremendously in order to ensure the inter-bank market liquidity, which can give the right to provide direct financial machine refinancing.

This is true. Approaching in June, the central bank's open market operations are also extremely cautious. As on May 22, in the period of 28 days, the interest rate of 4% of the 85 billion repurchase maturity, based on the issue of 30 billion repurchase, the day the net amount invested 55 billion. When the net amount invested 120 billion week, last week the net amount invested over 44 billion 76 billion. "It's basically eliminate the possibility of 'shortage of money' is." Liu Yuhui analysis, "financial institutions as long as there is demand for funds, you can borrow money from the central bank."

Because, in the period (debt) risks associated with long-period (real estate) pressure on the risk of future economic adjustment superimposed difficult to forecast. The current cycle of debt and capacity into the top of a basic consensus, into the top of the real estate cycle is still controversial, but the market is not optimistic sign. "If in the long economic cycle overlay, open capital account is not achieved in the case of exchange rate flexibility mechanisms will accelerate the economic downturn, there are uncontrollable risk." Liu Yuhui said.

The central bank is concerned, this is undoubtedly a step startling fluidity control "dangerous" move, despite the current liquidity unharmed to see, but it can not solve the "financing of the" brutal reality of monetary policy instruments on this almost ineffective.

Economic cycles superimposed policy onrush man?

In fact, the Chinese capital account liberalization steps, Zhou Xiaochuan has given direction. He wrote that the study established interoperability mechanisms inside and outside the stock market, and gradually allow qualified foreign companies issuing shares in the domestic capital market and broaden investment channels for residents. The renminbi capital account convertibility is an orderly way, according to the IMF standards, 85% of China's capital projects have been in more than a basic level of convertibility.

And back to the 29th article of the "loans backed" conditional relax on, such as the number of insured loans outside the control within canceled. Eliminate unnecessary restrictions and other qualifications. The other side of the coin is that allegedly affected by the impact of the current round of devaluation, many inside and outside through the "loans backed" arbitrage establish long positions of speculators RMB had open out. Among these, there may not be bailing out the arbitrage.

So relaxed "within the warranty loan" while active funds, intentionally or unintentionally, may give affected by the depreciation of the RMB before, by "loans backed" channel arbitrage, built RMB longs bailing out speculators can not impose help.

An understanding of the financial sector within the warranty Loan said that some within the warranty credit file in order to obtain financing or even arbitrage and done, it is normal for companies financial operations. But precisely this action to a certain extent arbitrage "whitewash" China's import and export data, thereby affecting the balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves.

Over the past few years because of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in overseas markets is expected to be greater than domestic expectations, there are differences within the DF NDF market and the market price of RMB against the U.S. dollar, providing a risk-free arbitrage space. Now shrunk - the central bank to combat arbitrageurs make up two-way volatility of RMB exchange rate.

From the capital account liberalization, exchange rate reform, not difficult to find, financial market reform increasingly accelerated pace. But this is not enough to change the status quo.

Like lending rates simply get down. The financing become a common phenomenon. Explain the logic of a central banker is related to the issue of financing of the interest rate reform. Excellent corporate financing rates may be relatively low, so the level of interest rates is a manifestation of financing the competitiveness of enterprises.

Above the central bank officials said the exchange rate reform is concerned, is on the whole package of policies to expand domestic demand, among other policies launched together with the aim of promoting international balance of payments. Under the Chinese economy, "transfer mode, adjust the structure of the" background, not simply to promote market-oriented interest rate reform of the financial sector.

"It should also focus on coordination and reform in order to increase the reform of state-owned enterprises such as SBC departments in advance when the financial reform, including fiscal reforms started." Shen Jianguang said.

However, the reform of the situation getting better. May 16-17 May 2014 national work conference of economic reform, economic reform to ensure the completion of the 2014 nine key tasks. "Deepen fiscal and financial reform; promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, the development of mixed ownership economy" will be the implication of them. But the timetable is still unknown.

Targeted Stimulus Efforts Increase

While China refuses to launch a large general stimulus program, the small efforts are adding up.

Super-Size Me! China’s ’Mini’ Stimulus Starts Expanding
Nomura Holdings Inc. economists said measures including central bank loans for low-income housing are “starting to amount to something quite significant” as they scrapped their forecast for a second-quarter cut in banks’ reserve requirements. UBS AG said the government has gradually strengthened its mini-stimulus over the past couple of months and the central bank “has quietly eased liquidity conditions.”

The ruling Communist Party is trying to revive the economy without repeating the mistakes of its $586 billion stimulus begun in 2008, which caused a record buildup of debt and inflated property bubbles around the country. The State Council, or cabinet, said today it would lower reserve requirements for some qualified banks, after Premier Li Keqiang last week called on regional authorities to help stabilize expansion.

But is more coming?
Bigger moves may be in the offing. Nomura and Standard Chartered have forecast a nationwide reserve-ratio cut next quarter. Barclays Plc said in a note yesterday that chances are rising of more significant easing in coming weeks, such as “targeted” interest-rate or reserve-ratio reductions.

“There is increasing evidence that Premier Li Keqiang is probably more serious about the 7.5 percent growth target than hoped by those who have wanted the government to tolerate lower growth,” wrote Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays in Hong Kong.

According to the latest from the People's Daily, there is not going to be a RRR cut. One More Time: No Stimulus

If printing money solved all the problems then there would never be a crisis. If central planning worked, China wouldn't have a housing bubble or insane overcapacity in steel, cement and other industries. China went into a crisis in 2008 before the problems exploded in the U.S. Although U.S. subprime is the focus due to its global impact, China's domestic economy was well into a slowdown before the U.S. went into recession. I don't think it is a policy mistake to have a recession, in fact I believe the opposite, but if China doesn't want a recession then they clearly screwed up in 2007/2008 and then compounded their screw up with the stimulus in 2009/2010.

China's leaders are better able to plan for the long-term because they don't have to worry about elections. Chinese leaders are also better educated in fields such as economics. This is an advantage over democracies that choose leaders based on popularity, which often involves the candidate's looks, ethnic background, charisma and personality. That said, China's leaders are not superior to the market in allocating resources. In fact, China is at a disadvantage because the information they receive is distorted by their information controls and the fact that the party itself is distorting the information with its actions. China is Goodhart's Law run amok. (James Rickards discusses Goodhart's Law in the Death of Money).

If there's no crisis then no crisis was ever coming. If there is a crisis coming, there is nothing China can do to stop it; they can only decide how to deal with it. Thanks to their control over the economy the leadership has more control over where the costs pile up, but they cannot reverse the laws of economics.

IBM Competitors Limit Up Again on Mainland; Inspur Up 15% in HK After It Poaches IBM Talent

Yesterday there was this headline: IBM Challenger Inspur Woos China Customers Amid Dispute
Chinese server maker Inspur Group Ltd. started a campaign to lure customers from International Business Machines Corp. as the government studies if domestic banks’ reliance on IBM technology threatens national security.

Today, there are reports the firm is also poaching IBM's employees, another story puts the number at 80 so far.

浪潮确认“挖角”IBM 多名员工跳槽至浪潮 (Inspur confirms it is raiding IBM; Many Employees Have Joined Inspur)
Yesterday, news that a comprehensive plan to replace the wave of IBM server business in China, there are more than 80 IBM employees switched to wave. Inspur Group confirmed to the Beijing News reporter "This is true." As of yesterday, the wave of the Group's wave of software [ 6.13% funding research report ] has daily limit for three consecutive days.

IBM was "poaching"

In assessing whether the Chinese government research and reliance on domestic commercial banks IBM Corporation (IBM) server is a threat to national security, the Chinese server manufacturers launched the wave of the Group of IBM customers, "erosion" action.

IPG to Beijing News reporter sent an information display, May 27, the tide started nationwide innovative data centers nationwide tour to show the wave of high-end servers, generic servers, storage systems, cloud computing, big data, high-performance computing and mainframe 18 of the models the safety of the six modules, 12 solutions and applications demonstrate full debut.

At the same time, the tide station in Jinan, first published a study entitled "I2I program" (IBM to Inspur) plan aims to take full control of IBM X business.

Wave that began last year, the wave of the financial replace part of IBM servers and related facilities and other industries. Including China Construction Bank [ -0.25% funding research report ] , a number of state-owned postal savings banks, savings banks have been using since last year pilot wave produced domestically server.

Left Bai Chen, vice president, said the wave, the wave of the server and minicomputer products, has had the ability to fully take over IBM products. In terms of talent pool, the tide had already recruited a large number of professionals from IBM and other foreign server vendors. Wave through products, channels, services, prices of full-force, a comprehensive alternative to IBM's server business in China to accelerate China's server market share in the first goal.

At the same time though there is news that this year a large number of IBM employee turnover. On the news, IBM China, PR Director Shen Xiao Yi said, IBM does not comment on this temporarily.

IBM results have been eight consecutive quarters of decline, last year IBM decline in performance was attributed to weakness in the Chinese market. Foreign media will be Microsoft, IBM, Cisco China were attributed to declining performance by the "prism incident" affected.

Wave of hundreds of millions each year by the Government-funded

Left Bai Chen said that from the beginning of last year, the government increasing importance of information security, the extent of the wave beyond expectations. According to reports, beginning in 2009, the wave of several hundred million dollars every year to get financial support from the government, mainly through 863 projects, nuclear high base, the results of the NDRC's transformation and so on.

In addition, the government has also set up a wave of high-performance server storage group and facilities, the ministry also has a wave Laboratory, to undertake country missions. In addition, there are many preferential policies. "For example, the wave of foreign companies setting is not compatible with obstacles, the Ministry will allocate 200 million yuan wave R & D funding, requiring the wave of 2015 to reach the same level as international." Left Bai Chen said.

March 2013, China started the wave of domestic manufacturing in the Postal Savings Bank pilot server, the same year in May, the country's three data centers Construction Bank data center in Wuhan, the tide has made ​​large-scale applications. Subsequently, the wave-related products in the China Banking Regulatory Commission , China's central bank, part of the policy banks, a number of provinces and the City firm to obtain applications. Analysts said the Chinese government to strengthen information security initiatives are gradually implementing corporate action.

However, industry insiders believe that the wave group wanted to overthrow IBM's leading position in China is not easy. In 2012, total revenue of 401 billion wave yuan , only 6.2% IBM year income.

Minsheng Bank Takes 20% Haircut on Steel Traders' Credit Cards

Misheng bank is offering a deal to the Fuzhou Zhouning steel traders who are overdue on their credit card balances, allowing them to pay 80% and settle the debt.

recently, Shanghai, Fujian Province, Zhou County Chamber of Commerce announced that the current Minsheng Bank Shanghai Branch to implement preferential policies for the repayment of the credit card overdraft Fujian Zhou Ning membership overdue. Specific preferential policies, only 80% of the principal amount of the need to deal with the remaining amount by Minsheng Bank Credit Card Department to apply for relief headquarters. Offers Until the end of June 2014, with effect from July will no longer enjoy the preferential policies.

21st Century Business Herald reporter multi-understand, and general customer credit card overdrafts, two years ago, in order to expand SME based steel trading business, livelihood often shares the line of credit to credit cards as a way of steel trade, steel trade credit limit of up to hundreds of thousands, or even hundreds of million.

Since 2012, with the continued downturn in the steel trade, Shanghai and other Yangtze River Delta steel trade credit crisis broke out, in addition to general corporate loans rose significantly overdue, the steel trade also on the high amount of credit card for a vicious overdraft, clear over the closing pressure large.

The Minsheng Bank Zhou Ning Ji steel trade customers preferential repayment period for the end of June 2014, it is the mid-year report as of June 2014, Minsheng Bank has highlighted the prevention and control of non-performing high pressure.

May 30, a Shanghai court reporter access to the network, within the next month, Minsheng Bank in Shanghai court case is still as high as 114, of which the vast majority is still the steel trade enterprises.

One More Time: No Stimulus

The Chinese leadership has been extremely consistent in saying there will be no stimulus. I can understand if investors think there will be a stimulus once there are obviously problems in the economy, but the leadership has said it will not repeat 2008.

If there is a crisis in 2014 or 2015, it will be worse than 2008 because by nearly every measure (except the stock market) is at an elevated level: more debt, more real estate supply, higher home prices, greater inventory, etc. If the government is saying it won't repeat 2008, then I take them at their word and assume they will not launch a massive stimulus program to save the economy until it is too late, and even then, they may decide it is too late and decide instead to see a real recession through to the end.

In the People's Daily Overseas Edition, the point about no stimulus was driven home yet again and it specifically addresses the investment banks that are saying China will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or make other adjustments to aid the economy. Short of banging them on the head with the latest 5-year plan, I'm not sure what else it will take for people to get the message.

Here is a part of the piece below:
On the "RRR" cut, experts and institutions are cautious. Minsheng Securities research report said: "It is undeniable, according to traditional Keynesian macro-control mode to deal with the economic downturn, the central bank should reduce the deposit reserve ratio at this time to pull up aggregate demand. But we have repeatedly pointed out, under the new normal, the framework of the government's macro-management thinking has undergone major changes. The odds of taking the old road, of a total stimulus policy is not high. "

They go on to say that the slowdown is structural, not cyclical. In other words, the slowdown is a result of the rebalancing. China's leaders clearly do not want to screw up their reform efforts by hitting reset and reinflating up the sectors that need to shrink relative to the overall economy. They would like to avoid a full blown recession in which these sectors decline rapidly, but if their goal is ultimately reform, I don't expect they will do much of any rescue effort directed at sectors such as steel, cement or real estate, if any type of rescue at all even arrives in time. Most likely, the economy will tip into a major slowdown, with a full blown recession still a possibility.

经济不会重演“花钱买速度” (Economy Will Not Spend Money to Buy Speed Again)
The face of the economic downturn, the market calls for drainage monetary stimulus voice was underway, a number of investment banks in a timely manner to determine the central bank will lower the deposit reserve ratio. Premier Li Keqiang recently said that the face of downward pressure, we insist on maintaining stability, promising initiative, co-ordination to promote steady growth, promoting reform, structural adjustment, improve people continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, strengthening policy synergies, good policy reserves, appropriate and timely pre-tune fine-tuning. Experts believe that China's prudent monetary will continues, the past policy easing, "buying economic growth," the old play will not re-staged.

Agency predicts "RRR"

Economic slowdown, real estate prices fell, difficulties in financing the real economy, the risk of local debt, overcapacity, foreign trade China's current economic weakness ...... there is an urgent need to solve a lot of problems. Minsheng Securities described in the report, said China's economic growth rate is in the shift period, the throes of a critical period of structural adjustment policies and pre-digested superposition of three, from the rapid growth of high-speed economic growth to the shift is inevitable. From the supply side, the demographic dividend recession, the savings rate inflection point, the potential growth rate of decline, the loss of comparative advantage in labor. From the demand side, the internal demographic turning point leading to the real estate engine stall, outside the dividends of globalization recession, global economic imbalances to rebalance from leading external demand and foreign engine stall.

In the eyes of many, when the economy is weak, you need a more relaxed monetary policy stimulus, lower the deposit reserve ratio is a high probability event. Zhu Haibin, China economist at JP Morgan in 2014 there will be two RRR cut, by 50 basis points each, one in the third quarter, and again in the fourth quarter.

Standard Chartered Bank report said lower the deposit reserve ratio is ripe, it is necessary to relax the policy to a greater range of steady growth.

"The central bank is currently dealing with a hard landing RRR best macroeconomic policy," Chen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in its micro-Bo, said Prime Minister Lee visits mentioned in Chifeng City, "downward pressure on the economy can not be taken lightly, timely pre-tune fine-tuning to keep money and credit growth. " Earlier SCIO situation briefing, Zhu Baoliang, director of the Information Center forecast also considers appropriate RRR is also an option. Chen Jianguang that "RRR is not a massive stimulus, but tight monetary policy to neutral from an inevitable requirement."

Steady tone will not change

On the "RRR" cut, experts and institutions are cautious. Minsheng Securities research report said: "It is undeniable, according to traditional Keynesian macro-control mode to deal with the economic downturn, the central bank should reduce the deposit reserve ratio at this time to pull up aggregate demand. But we have repeatedly pointed out, under the new normal, the framework of the government's macro-management thinking has undergone major changes. The odds of taking the old road, of a total stimulus policy is not high. "

Executives repeatedly stressed that the implementation of prudent monetary policy, industry analysis, in this process of monetary policy on the one hand to maintain concentration, to maintain the stability of the total, on the other hand directional tuning, promote structural optimization, in order to upgrade the economic transformation services. Neither expected future monetary policy tightening will not relax.

"Monetary policy can not be significantly relaxed, because the potential growth of China's economy continued downward, is a structural trend, not a cyclical output gap, blind loose monetary easily lead to inflation, increasing the difficulty of economic restructuring; monetary policy should not be closed tight, because the process of economic restructuring, the traditional industry, there is downward pressure, but the new economic growth point has not yet formed a large-scale, policy should be highly concerned about the economy in this period of potential risks, the Chinese economy to avoid 'hard landing'. " Minsheng Securities report said.

RRR is not a panacea, the central bank has more means to promote economic growth. National Australia Bank chief economist Optek Lim believes that if you just take the number of loose monetary policy, China's economy is expected there will be risks. The Chinese government is more likely to take the package, rather than a single monetary policy to ensure stable economic growth, while avoiding the economic ups and downs.

Innovation is more important than "money"

Compared with the blind pursuit of economic growth, and tap China's economic growth endogenous motivation, stimulate innovation and vitality, improve the quality of economic growth is more important in the current. Premier Li Keqiang said that China's economy continued under good this game, to upgrade is the direction, which requires the continuous deepening of reform and inspire the whole social innovation power, creative potential, entrepreneurial vigor.

Minsheng Securities reports that address the structural problems must rely more on the future, "Kaiqu diversion" type of supply management, to create a stable monetary and financial environment for economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading, integrating reforms in macro-control among the monetary policy and deepening reform closely together. Its core is not massive stimulus through a simple, but by improving the supply of capital, labor, production, systems and technology factors of production, activation economy itself hematopoietic function, enhance the potential growth rate of the economy.

"In the past thirty years, the rapid development of China's economy mainly depends on large-scale investment in human capital and only 30% of economic growth based on innovation and productivity improvement. If you want long-term development of China's economy, we must increase innovation in economic development role. "Dean said Yasheng Huang, MIT Sloan School of Management.

Yasheng Huang suggested that the current, critical to enhance China's scientific and technological innovation, is to change the government-led model of innovation, technological innovation and encouraging private entrepreneurship.


Single Shanghai Residents Get Fake Marriages to Buy Homes

In Shanghai, single city residents cannot buy homes unless they have a Shanghai residence permit. Even if the person has lived in Shanghai for years, pays taxes, pays into the Shanghai social security system, etc., they are still unable to buy. Solution: fake marriage.

外地单身男上海心酸买房故事:除非假结婚 否则买不了
Got up early in the morning, go Songjiang showings. Suburban Songjiang in Shanghai belong, representing Beijing's Fangshan. It is a newly opened real estate, hardcover small apartment, the average price per square 20000, total 1.5 million, they can be considered affordable range.

"Foreign singles can now buy it?" I tentatively asked. Despite showings last year, when we heard a single field of social security would not let even pay to buy a house, but still did not give up, that was just a temporary provision.

"No way." Back to the sales lady was emphatic. "Unless you fake marriages with people, and then buy finished off."

Over, this is over, but can not afford to buy it later. Last year always thought the policy will be adjusted, but now, not only the policy has not changed, but also the way prices soaring in the city last year, if you buy 50 square husband still enough room, now only enough to buy 30 flat.

Shanghai this purchase order is executed from the beginning of June last year. Showings late last year, when the agency hears mention a mouth, then did not seriously, but then I was too frustrating, to buy a house will delay things down. It has not been looked at on and off, chances are it always felt loose policy.

Recently decided to move, the landlord said the rent will go up, only to rekindle the desire to buy a house. Downtown also saw some 1.5 million is enough to buy a kind of a husband Muroto room prices this year has gone up a lot, Cheng Si can buy 40 square, shuffled around the pool area, kitchen and bathroom, bedroom at the most to set aside a bed and a small sofa, I was big, I feel Shengelanyao will hit flora, with the dwelling is no different.

In Songjiang, I told the sales lady tone almost pleading that you help me to ask, is there any other way. Go home at night to drink two stuffy wine, reliving a few years ago hit "dwelling", was weird smells.

Shanghai for childhood I was a godlike presence

In 2000, I also "dwelling" in the same algae from the field to Shanghai to study, look forward to in this China's most prosperous cities have a better future. I had to score, the provincial capital into the elite class more than enough, but in order to be able to come to Shanghai, still resolutely give up a lot of opportunities.

Shanghai is also the place my father was born. My grandfather played little mention of how he heard the shuttle in ten foreign market, and seen many major aspects of society, and later Mao Zedong's call to return home, he was obedient, the family and I came back, the result never go back. My dad brought this crop would upset very often talking about, but for your grandfather, your father can not face loess hard to force ha ha, that time is certainly the same as your relatives who live in Shanghai steak house myself.

For me, childhood, Shanghai is a god exists. There skyscrapers, enough to live comfortably. I once heard that Shanghai people are white handkerchief used to throw, I thought it was too generous, and later learned that it was a napkin. Childhood in rural nothing to eat, Shanghai relatives can come back with a block Lehe White Rabbit candies for several days.

The school is located wujiaochang area. Then wujiaochang still dusty urban fringe, much like it is today downtown, prices are ridiculously expensive so far, unlike today. Now the new Bay City flat in a new real estate forty away, then National Road, the kingdom's most expensive house on the road, but three thousand.

I learned in college is economic, but the prices are almost no sense. At that time, we have learned in the classroom is a Marxist political economics. Outside the classroom, we do not have to make money as a top priority in life, we talk about the most ideal and feelings. In the land of gold in Shanghai, and is a graduate of prestigious universities, afraid of the future do not own the land to settle down yet?

Because the working relationship after graduation went to Beijing, just graduated that would also save no less than any money, and later Beijing's housing prices have begun to rise a thousand miles. In 2010, six years after leaving, to return to Shanghai. The main point is close to home, then you can take care of my parents.

Previously bored all day at school, the real Shanghai did not have much personal experience. The back was finally able to see the charm of this international metropolis.

Probably find the second major cities in China like Shanghai convenient, safe and orderly speak. Middle of the night hungry, downstairs there is a convenience store, a taxi at the airport do not have to worry about someone jump the queue, there are numerous cafes waiting for you in a daze, supermarket goods cheaper than our country ......

Shanghai Please advocates a single opportunity to buy a house

I know the cost of living here is very high, even in recent years to catch up with Hong Kong and New York. Here is also the most expensive cities in housing prices in China. Scoop the Huangpu River house has more than a dozen case level. But for someone like me from the field to the working class, where you can still feel there is our place to go.

Parents older, the body is not good, with the latter Shanghai also has a place to stay. The house is not necessarily great, thirty or forty flat enough, or in the outer suburbs to buy a slightly larger, and now Shanghai rail transit so easy in the future to pay the mortgage , the next big deal little restaurant a few times.

The first few years of purchase, saying that foreigners can not buy a house in Shanghai, must pay social security over the past few years in Shanghai can. Was excited to hear this news for quite a while, do not think Shanghai this policy across the board, very accommodating. According to this provision, I have to buy a house qualifications.

After graduation so many years of hard work that has accumulated, plus a little bit of savings parents live frugally, barely enough to pay a down payment. Be looking at the house, there is no sign off on the policy, saying not to buy a single field, which is really unexpected.

Start listening agency said, you can spend a few hundred pieces to do a fake marriage certificate, generally do not check out, but there is a certain risk, if checked out, tens of thousands of deposit gone. Later, a search online and found that mess may also want to go to jail. Just because there is a field buddy do buy fake marriages in Shanghai, Pudong court also sentenced.

Then find a friend to do a really married, and then after finishing off. Finally say a relative move, the result was discovered, people have a set of rooms, and in theory you can buy the first two suites , but involve loans and interest rates go down, the verification property taxes , etc., the high cost giant, had to give up.

The occasion of nothing, with the Shanghai Housing Authority had thought people call complaints, why not buy a single field, we work in Shanghai, Shanghai to Shanghai on Social Security taxes also be regarded as contributing to the Shanghai people, this is not our discrimination? Internet and saw a lot of people have been questioned on this matter over the Housing Authority.

Housing Authority can reply are exactly the same, but the cold: For a single person to purchase, according to the municipal government office in 2012 on the 7th hereinafter provided, the city residence is currently only allows a single person purchase housing units.

The Housing Authority gives only one suggestion: to rent. Housing Authority said that not only can rent their own, meet the requirements, you can also apply for public rental . "The city has adopted various measures to focus on the development of public rental, an effective solution to youth workers, migrant workers in Shanghai to introduce talents and live stage difficult."

I learned from these official of talking like the answer was not clear that the rulers of the city a little bit of warmth, they can not see the introduction of this policy in the end what is the reason and logic.

If the limit is to buy a single foreign purchase, then is not to find someone fake marriage, and then divorce can do? Intermediary friend said, a lot of people doing this, it seems a lot of people running a fake divorce as two suites for trading.

Such a policy, even reasonable, but there is a little bit of humanity it? Marriage and divorce so solemn things in our sale of real estate, became a tool.

Some people would certainly say that if fake marriage or not, you really do not have to get married, to end sooner or later anyway. But I ask, I have a fixed lover, but it is not marriage advocates okay, do not licensing rights would not buy a house yet? I am a single doctrine okay, right if the person is no single lifetime to buy a house yet? I am a gay okay, Shanghai allowing homosexuals to marry, and if allowed to, do all homosexuals must live life to rent it?

I think that, unlike mainland Shanghai occlusive small town, everyone is only one way to get married, be tolerant to diversity of values ​​here is an international metropolis. People who live here, whether foreign or local, in the individual pursuit, already can have a wide range of choices.

Shanghai Municipal Housing Authority, said Shanghai has taken measures to focus on the development of public rental, addressing youth workers, as well as the introduction of talent to Shanghai workers staged living difficult. This stage is how long? Residence permit after five years you can buy it? If the time to tighten policy again how to do?

At that time the prices, I guess we can not afford a lifelong renters live, how a miserable. Maybe give priority to buy the right to marry the person nothing wrong, but also want to give advocates a single chance. Even slightly higher threshold, such must be at least 30 years of age, such as how many years must pay taxes or complete social security, at least people have to look forward to it.