Political Dominoes are Falling in Europe

As in Sweden, the politics are flipping in Italy.

‘Mother, Italian, Christian’: Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s far-right leader on the cusp of power

How far-Right Sweden Democrats are bringing Trump's America to a small country town

"It's completely crazy that so many people here vote for them," complains Johan Tinné, the co-owner of the central Café Innegarden. "I think they've grown because of all the shootings and the gang crime. They blame everything on immigrants, and when something bad happens, they use that as propaganda." When asked if any friends and family also vote for the party, he shakes his head. "The day they start voting for SD, I'll end all my contact with them."

If you view politics somewhat objectively, if you can set bias aside when observing the whole picture, you can see how easily the populace can swing from a complex false reality such as "systemic racism" to innate tribalism. Or from one form of racism to another. It isn't that one is right or wrong, though your bias may argue that. It's merely the observation that, if you raise a population to think native populations are inherently evil, then it isn't at all a stretch for the public to then switch out white for black, or Russians, Chinese, Jews, migrants. What looks like moral authority is merely popularity and power. It's almost impossible that the natives, who are the dominant population group, won't eventually retake power on their terms.

My biased opinion is that the Western media, government and educational institutions rely less and less on dialectic, and more and more on rhetoric and intellectually-devoid ad hominems. As Biden did in his "MAGA are fascists" speech. A good reason not to engage in this type of propaganda is that it has a raw effect on the public.

Take a very complex theory such as systemic racism. Take the in extremis example of blaming anti-Asian violence on white supremacy, when nearly every single video shows a black assailant. If the propaganda pushes the public into an place of extreme emotional agitation and cognitive dissonance, if the public is starting to feel an emotional reaction such as whites believing they are being blood libeled and Asians are becoming anxious by the dichotomy of reality and propaganda, politics can quickly swing 180 degrees. An emotionally agitated population swings from "anti-white" to "anti-black," and stays there because of the video evidence. It doesn't require concocting bizarre political theories to defend "an epidemic of black crime." It's kind of funny that people who don't like the rise of SD in Sweden, say things such as "I think they've grown because of all the shootings and the gang crime." When a political movement intentionally increases shootings and gang crime, a backlash is inevitable.

In the 1980s, a reaction to the 1970s consisted of the Moral Majority turning against the smut and drugs of the 1970s. "Just Say No" emerged.  The moral part peaked in the late 1980s with Congressional hearings on rock and rap music lyrics. Crime was met with increased policing and incarceration.  "Three Strikes You're Out" laws proliferated. NYC saw crime rates plummet with "stop and frisk" and "broken windows" policing. Going farther back, the laissez-faire USA of the 1920s was effectively erased by FDR's New Deal, which vastly expanded government in a way that prior generations of Americans would have openly rebelled against. I believe current conditions are far closer to the 1930s than the 1970s. 

In times of extreme negative mood, political reversals are likely. If the right is in power, expect the left will win and vice versa. Across the West presently, extremist left-wing/liberal ideas are in power. It expresses itself mainly through extremist immigration policies (effectively open borders) and anti-racist ideology that treats native populations as the worst/lowest group in society. Global corporations tag along with policies aimed at crushing local labor. My view is these ideas have drifted into absurdity and cannot be defended. Since espousing common sense policies on immigration and race gets people labeled racists, then a shift back to "the middle" is unlikely. Instead, the public will flip into a moral mirror.

Moreover, it doesn't require complex theories. Should the government treat citizens better than foreigners? Should the government treat victims of crime better than criminals? Should government help workers more than giant corporations? Should government help companies build businesses at home instead of abroad? Should government fund social welfare at home instead of funding wars overseas? Most people will choose the former over the latter, except the current people in power. Two consequences follow. First, the people in power are going to lose that power. Second, I predict that every movement that is aligned with power from BLM to LGBTQ and so on, is at risk of also losing their social status. Not that they will, but that they could and some definitely will. For example, anti-LGBTQ laws that exist in Hungary, Poland and Russia will be found across the West.

The far right is having a moment in Europe. Actually, everywhere.

Pietro Castelli Gattinara, associate professor of political communication at Université Libre de Bruxelles and Marie Curie Fellow at Sciences Po, said that the far right is a global movement and a global ideology, even though one of the core tenets of these parties is a kind of nativism. That translates into a rejection of migration, but also of the social and cultural changes taking place within societies. The “woke” culture wars may look different in the US or Italy, but they are a feature of the modern far-right.

The "far-right" is diverse. The "Woke" around the world all believe the same things. They are globalists. They want to wipe out the nations. They call their movement diverse, but it is really homogenous. If everywhere is diverse, then it's homogenous. NYC is diverse because people from distinct cultures live/travel/work there. If everywhere is as diverse as NYC, then it is no longer unique.

The globalist goal isn't stability, but instability. They are using migration to destroy nations that resist globalism. Nationalists only share their love of their own people and cultures. Indian, Japanese, American and Swedish nationalists all agree that the nations (people) of India, Japan, America and Sweden should not be destroyed by globalism and diversity. The world is made more diverse by having these nations, than it is by putting all these people into a blender. 

War in Ukraine only highlights the battle. Russian areas of Ukraine want to breakaway and join Russia. Globalists are like the Ukrainian government trying to rule over diverse peoples. How much easier would it be if Eastern Ukraine was flooded with migrants who oppose joining Russia?

It is possible this is a temporary "moment" for the "far-right." I instead see a major turning point in the world. I believe it is very possible no one above the age of 50 will see the stock market higher (in real terms) than it was at the end of 2021. Prosperity is going away and whatever is associated with power today, could very well become unpopular in the decades-long downturn. More to the point, poor people value things like safety, community and culture in politics because they lack the wealth to buy it. The government cannot provide better material welfare if the economy is shrinking, but they can always provide more security and increase social cohesion with policies enforcing the dominant language, religion, family structure and so on.

One example: countries have already ended easy international travel with the pandemic. That is an anti-globalist, nationalist policy and it was mostly done by the globalist governments. A logical next step is to ban all migration, as that is a more "invasive" type of population movement. Even when they "win," the globalists will have to behave more like nationalists in the same way that laissez-faire accepted the welfare state as a practical matter.

Denmark Sending Migrants to Rwanda

It begins.

Denmark’s left-wing government will begin sending asylum seekers to Rwanda after groundbreaking agreement

Instead of migrants waiting in Denmark for their asylum request to be processed, the country’s left-wing government will now begin deporting them to Rwanda after the African country agreed to accept them in a bilateral agreement.

The plan, which has long been a goal of Denmark’s right-wing parties, took more than a year of negotiations, but the policy goal is now closer than ever to being realized. The deal does not apply to only Rwandan migrants — instead all asylum seekers would be forced to wait in Africa until their asylum procedure is finished. The fact that the plan is being implemented by a left-leaning government points to the strange circumstances in Denmark in which the left has embraced many of the anti-immigration polices of the right.

The strange circumstance where a mainstream party used their gray cells.

Anti-immgration is the winning issue. Not only are these migrants going to stay in Rwanda, but the rest of Europe will start making deals with other countries to take migrants. And then they'll move on to unassimilated foreigners, eventually coming to mean Muslims. It was done once before and it will be done again.

“Every fifth young man with a non-Western background born in 1997 had broken the law before turning 21. It’s not everyone. But there are too many young men who take the freedom of others, steal children’s futures, intimidate prison guards – and leave behind a long trail of insecurity,” said the Danish prime minister.

“It has been going on for too many years. Girls who are called derogatory names because they are Danish. Or girls who are subjected to social control because they have become too Danish. A sausage cart in Brønshøj that is attacked with firecrackers because it sells pork,” she said.

She sounds a lot like Trump, no? The next decade is going to really suck for globalists and mentally ill people. If you want to know why the ruling class of America, and the West more generally, floods the country with illegal aliens, sends children to die in pointless wars, sends billions to Ukraine while people are homeless at home, why illegal aliens are given free transportation and never had any covid restrictions, why people are willing to destroy the health and wealth of a nation in pursuit of fake climate science, look no further than this image of loyalty:

The "right" is most loyal to its family, friends, nation. Loyalty moves out from the family. The "left" is loyal to foreigners, even enemies of the tribe in the extreme. The warmongers on the right are no less "left" than the nominal left because they are expressing a part of the same twisted ideology. No one with loyalty to their own people would waste so much blood and treasure on foreign wars, nor oppose common sense economic policies that help their citizens. That Denmarks "left" embraces common sense loyalty to its own people is the shocking thing in Europe? No, what's shocking is that Denmark joins a handful of governments in the West that place their own citizens first.

The American ruling class' attempt at labeling January 6 protesters as traitors is going to be one of the all-time backfires if a right-wing politician who understands that picture above wins. It is trivial to flip the entire authoritarian police state against the people who have the inverted loyalty because they observably behave like traitors by tearing down statues, defaming the nation's heroes, support foreign governments and illegal aliens and so on. It's also expressed by the research showing white leftists are now anti-white bigots and that trend has strengthened over time.

If America goes, then Europe will go down like dominoes almost instantly because look at Denmark. It's already happening. The playbook is right there in the open, but we do live in authoritarian times. Why do you think the DoJ and FBI are raiding dozens of Trump officials and supporters? There is nothing stopping whatever party or movement grabs ahold of the immigration issue. 

This isn't a traditional left-right issue, it is the globalist-nationalist dividing line. If you support local control and helping people locally, you are now "far right" aka nationalist and if you support sending money and effort as far away as possible, you are "far left."

Back to Europe, the icing out of the nationalist Sweden Democrats failed: The astonishing rise of the right-wing Sweden Democrats

But as vote-counting progressed, the right-wing bloc consisting of the Liberals, Christian Democrats, Moderates and Sweden Democrats now seems on track to win, currently with 49.7% of the vote.

While final results aren’t expected before Wednesday, Social Democrats have so far received the largest percentage of votes, 30.5%.

But currently, the Sweden Democrats are the second-strongest party, gaining 20.6% of the vote in their best-ever election performance. That makes them the biggest party on the right, in front of the Moderates who came as a close third with 19.1%.

Anti-immigration is common sense in an age where the ruling class is implementing extremist migration policies that exterminate the local culture and destroy local sovereignty. It is actually one of the definitions of genocide, and some people who talk about Tibet and Xinjiang in China do call the mass migration of Han Chinese into these areas as a kind of genocide because they realize its designed to crush local power. Yet when it is being done at an even greater scale in the West...it's only a matter of time before someone even more radical than Trump comes along to flip the table for good. And if he's an authoritarian, the idiots in the ruling class have build him the power structure he can use to eliminate their power with both shocking rapidity and shocking popularity.

Sweden Democrats One Step from Forming Own Government

Anti-Immigrant, Eurosceptic Sweden Democrats Set To Become Nation's 2nd Largest Party

The far-right, anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats (SD) party overtook the main right-wing opposition party in the polls on Monday ahead of the parliamentary elections on 11 September, becoming Sweden's second largest party general elections in September, Euroactiv reported.

According to the latest opinion poll from SVT/Novus, the Sweden Democrats are now the main challengers of Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s incumbent Social Democrats currently leading a minority government.

Sweden Democrats stood at 21.5%, compared to the Moderate’s 17.4%, pitting the eurosceptic party only behind the ruling Social Democrats, who stood at 27.8%.

Sweden Democrats are below their 2018 numbers when I wrote: Sweden Democrats On Verge of Becoming Largest Party in Sweden.

Back in 2015, I posted This One Chart Explains the Next 10 Years of Political Change. Events have taken longer than I anticipated, but it is happening. Minority parties have monopolies on the most important issues. The ruling class parties have circled the wagons in most nations, including the establishment GOP and Democrats in the USA.

The public either will or will not decide they've had enough of open borders, greens, taxes, warmongers and vaxx terrorists. If they don't, collapse can go on "forever" because there are always more people to tax or kill. It took the Russians 70 years to wake up from full socialism, China after 30 years, while Chile aborted the revolution in the cradle. Socialism is a better sell than the currency policy mix in my opinion, yet much of the Western public seems content with endless disasters judging by poll numbers.

If they decide enough is enough though, what's their choice? In many countries, there are maybe one or two choices. The parties and movements that are opposed to immigration, vaxx terrorism, unfettered free trade, green idiocy, lockdowns and wars are almost all out of power. They are either led by social pariahs like Trump or their leaders co-opt them and sell them out to further their own careers.

Parties such as Sweden Democrats are in what I consider the waiting room for power. Although the next 25 percent appears like a huge number, it won't be. When the public decides to change course, polls will shift massively because there are no alternatives. It is a binary situation, either it happens or it doesn't. Sweden is one of several countries where most parties say they won't allow a "far-right" party into a coalition. It is Sweden Democrats or bust if you are a Swedish voter demanding change. It the U.S. the situation is slightly different because the first-past-post party wins power. If the U.S. splintered into three parties, a populist MAGA party could theoretically win power if it was able to pull in disaffected left-wing voters.

The Far Right Is The New Center

The default position for the establishment is open borders. Any rejection of mass migration is xenophobic and racist.

Some on the left are waking up to the problem of mass migration, but the standard line when referencing Europe is they don't assimilate foreigners as well as Americans. This is partially correct, but also wrong. Europe has serious problems because their migrants are largely Sunni Muslims. Europe has a bad history with Islam. Muslims become more radicalized living in Western countries (something that was also true in Andalusia 1000 years ago...those who fail to learn from history...). Migrants to the U.S. are largely Christian or have much smaller numbers and can't form a major ethnic, political and cultural bloc. Europe is having trouble first because of who migrated there, not because it has failed particularly poorly at integration.

An op-ed in the NYTimes makes the integration case for Sweden, that the problem is Swedish society didn't integrate migrants. The far-right is rising because of this failure.

NYTimes: How the Far Right Conquered Sweden

For decades, Sweden, once a racially and culturally homogeneous country with an expansive social welfare system, insisted that it could absorb large numbers of non-European migrants without considering how those migrants should be integrated into Swedish society.

As they did in cities across Western Europe, migrants tended to cluster in low-income neighborhoods; facing poor job prospects and rampant employment discrimination, they naturally turned inward. More young women have started wearing the hijab recently, Mr. Abdirahman tells me, and more young men “internalize the otherness” — rejected by their new society, they embrace the stereotypes imposed upon them. This can lead to a point where they reject gay rights or liberalism as “white, Western ideas,” and even attack firefighters because they represent the state.

The second paragraph could be written about more than one ethnic group in the United States. Word for word. Only change firefighters for police.

Diversity is not a strength, but a weakness. It is as flawed as communism because it makes as naive assumptions about human nature. Communists thought they could abolish selfishness (self-interest). Those promoting diversity either believe they can abolish tribalism (group self-interest) or in universalism and the Blank Slate, that all people are fundamentally the same. Identity politics is a direct result of mass migration, much of what people say is "wrong" about current politics in the West was as inevitable as a thrown ball falling to Earth.

The "far-right" (nationalist) will become the new center for natives. If the nationalists are winning elections, it signals natives still have self-determination. If the nationalists don't win elections (aren't rising) then it signals the country may already be beyond repair. It will suffer extreme partisanship because the traditional majority ethnic/racial/religious group cannot form a government and a majority of its citizens are already voting along racial/ethnic/religious lines.

Sweden Democrats Should Surprise in September Election

Sweden Democrats have been polling between 17 and 25 percent, but this story below makes it sounds like there could be shy SD supporters who will show up at the ballot box.

ZH: "I'm Not A Racist, But I'm A Nationalist": Why Sweden Faces A Historic Election Upset

“Trains and hospitals don’t work, but immigration continues,” Roger Mathson, a retired vegetable oil factory worker in Sweden, told Bloomberg on the same day as the violent, coordinated rampage by masked gangs of youths across five Swedish cities.

...“I’m not a racist, but I’m a nationalist,” Mathson said. “I don’t like seeing the town square full of Niqab-clad ladies and people fighting with each other.”

Trump voters didn't want to tell pollsters they supported Trump because they thought it was socially unacceptable to some degree. It is far worse in Sweden for SD supporters. I suspect the polling underestimates their support, but we'll see.

Additionally, voters who want to send a signal to the establishment have one option: Sweden Democrats. It's the only opposition party because it's the only party that has been rejected as a coalition partner by every other party. Mainly on migration, but if a voter considers migration important enough to vote on, then they are also more likely to vote SD. The only vote that will "make them listen" is one for SD.

Look for SD to surprise on the upside.

Sweden Democrats On Verge of Becoming Largest Party in Sweden

I've been working off a simple political model over the past few years.

One, social mood is trending negative. In a time of negative mood, voters are more likely to vote for politicians who oppose immigration and trade, and who start wars with foreign countries. If the populace isn't fighting a foreign enemy, they're going to fight a domestic one. Depending on the local conditions, shift expectations based on this. It's important to pay attention to intermediate- and short-term trends, as in the stock market, but the larger trend is negative mood.

Two, the establishment isn't very bright or is ideologically locked. They do not change their positions in response to changing voter mood (opinion), instead they move in the opposite direction. Immigration policy should have peaked in 2000 and become more restrictive over time as a natural course of events. Instead, Merkel launched a mass migration policy 15 years (!) into a mood change. The Democrats in the U.S.A. are calling for the abolition of immigration enforcement agents (ICE) today, effectively a call for open borders. This probably would have been a bad policy move in 2000, but it's really dumb when the mood has been moving the opposite way for nearly two decades. The only worse policies would be new wars and more bank bailouts.

Three, the establishment controls the media and shapes the debate. One reason why the establishment is dumb (in a functional sense) is that they are ignorant. They don't know that immigration restriction has been a winning issue for years because they control the mainstream debate. Many in the establishment and "mainstream" (those who get their information from establishment sources) avoid looking at data that strongly contradicts their world view. This isn't something that one side or the other has a monopoly on, but the broadly-termed "right" is exposed to "left" ideas through mainstream media, schools, and political debate, and thus gets exposed to all the broadly-termed "left" ideas. A bubble is developing on the right as well because of the fracturing media environment, but it has a long-way to go because they don't have a fully functional cocoon as the "left" does. Meanwhile, popular "right-wing" ideas spend years being debated online before they emerge into the public. Immigration restriction was basically off limits as a topic, an issue talked about by fringe candidates, until President Trump won with it.

Four, the establishment locks "the far-right" out of power. It doesn't matter if you're a libertarian or a left-wing socialist, if you adopt nationalist policies on a topic such as immigration you will be labeled "far right" and all major parties will exclude you from power. This gives the outsiders a total monopoly on the most important political issue as well as the winning position on that issue. Given enough time and a continued monopoly, eventually they will take power. (One nation where that may not be true is Denmark because the major center-left party turned "far right" on immigration.) There's hard evidence that this is taking place in Germany as explained in this 2015 post: This One Chart Explains the Next 10 Years of Political Change. The political establishment labels anti-immigration as a "far-right" policy. Over time, the "Overton Window" shifts "right" (in quotes because this isn't actually a left-right issue, but more a nationalist/globalist one) and the political center moves "right." All of the political parties that set themselves up in opposition to the "right" are drifting "left" over time as the center (the majority of voters) moves to the "far-right." The left-wing is almost non-existant in Poland and Hungary, it's why center-left and center-right parties are collapsing across Europe.

Back in 2014, I saw immigration becoming a major issue following UKIP's success in European parliamentary elections. (The Anglosphere countries have quite similar political cycles, particularly the US and UK.) I even saw that perhaps Trump might be the guy because he was often talking about immigration then. Trump took the issue and won it all in 2016.

Sweden is another example. Back in 2015 I wrote Nationalism Sweeps Europe. Quoting an article linked in the post:

“It is a very difficult time in Sweden,” Dr. Groglopo said. “Now we can talk about things that we weren’t allowed to talk about before. It is a kind of coup d’état.”

Last month, the Sweden Democrats threatened to bring down Prime Minister Stefan Lofven’s minority government. Early elections were averted only through a last-minute deal that observers say granted the anti-immigrant party even more power by pulling it from the sidelines and making it the primary opposition.

The party’s growth has occurred despite the fact that roughly a fifth of Sweden’s 9.6 million people were born abroad or to immigrant parents in Sweden. Most immigrants here have access to education, but government figures show a disproportionate unemployment rate for them, more than twice the national rate of about 8 percent. The disparity helped fuel riots in immigrant neighborhoods outside Stockholm in 2013.

I wrote:

The way the political landscape is set up, the Sweden Democrats are in striking distance of taking power in Sweden. By icing them out with a deal that angers both the right and left (Left leader in surprise attack on government), the mainstream political center has completely ceded the issues of immigration and identity to the Swedish Democrats and made them the chief opposition. They have handed them the keys to the castle. This is because SD are socialists, but also nationalists. They offer a similar economic agenda to the mainstream, but couple it with immigration restrictions.

How are Sweden Democrats polling these days? Sometimes the most popular party:

Sweden votes on September 9. Sweden Democrats will not win power. They will also likely be iced out of government again. Yet they might score a high enough vote total, 25 percent or above, that makes them the only credible alternative and cements their status as "the largest party in Sweden." Then it is only a matter of waiting for the next recession, financial crises or major terror attack for Sweden Democrats to "shock" Sweden and the world.

Swedish Right Wants EU Referendum

DailyMail: Could there be a SWEXIT? Right-wing Sweden Democrats call for a referendum on EU membership

The leader of the far-right anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats is calling for a referendum on EU membership, hoping for a 'Swexit' result.

Jimmie Åkesson, 39, branded the EU 'a large web of corruption', and said Sweden should hold a referendum after the general elections this September.

The Sweden Democrats is currently the second biggest party in the Scandinavian nation, boosted by the European migrant crisis which saw Sweden take in more refugees per capita than any other EU country.

Prepare for Currency Chaos

FT: China markets stabilise on state intervention

“At this point everyone expects (renminbi) depreciation, but the central bank doesn’t want to let things get out of control. They’re focused on preventing systemic risk,” said the head of forex trading at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.

Lars Christensen: PBoC should stop the silliness and float the RMB

Instead it is about time that PBoC either let the Renminbi float completely freely (which effectively would cause a significant depreciation of RMB) or implement a large devaluation – for example 30% – so to avoid any speculation of further devaluations and then introduce a peg to a basket of currency as hinted in December.

The problem with the present policy is that everybody in the market realizes that this is what we will get eventually and that has caused an escalation of the currency outflow from China and this outflow is likely to continue until the PBoC bites the bullet and introduce a completely new monetary regime. This halfway house will not stand for long and if the PBoC keeps fighting it the central bank will just do even more harm to the Chinese economy and potentially also cause an major banking crisis.

A 30% devaluation takes the Chinese yuan back to its hard peg level of 8.28 to $1. Lots of ways to profit from this, including bets on Trump winning the presidency, carnage across emerging markets, possibly Saudi Arabia and maybe even Hong Kong dumping their pegs as the world de-dollarizes.

The official forecast here is still that the U.S. dollar system dies by deflation. Fiat currency burns from the periphery to the core. The fire rises in 2016 and the transition to a new financial order will take many years to play out. If the old U.S. dollar cycles hold and this dollar bull tops out in 2017-2019, it could take until the mid-2020s before the U.S. dollar breaks its lows set in 2008. The strains will be visible much earlier, but a crisis in the U.S. dollar itself may not unfold until then.

From 2013: Here Comes the Global Rebalancing; What Happens to USD/XXX If XXX Goes to Zero?

The big wildcard is China.

The yuan is moving in the wrong direction. China targets hot money inflows with new forex rules

Indeed, the hot money is showing up as faster money supply growth: China April New Yuan Loans, Money Supply Exceed Estimates. Something will have to give in China.

All the while, the U.S. dollar and U.S. assets will absorb capital seeking a safe haven. It doesn't matter that gold should be a safe haven in this scenario because so many investors have gotten it wrong. The gold bulls nearly all expect U.S. hyperinflation and a major U.S. dollar rally could crush the gold bulls, while the rest of the market is anti-gold and will look to other assets. Therefore, I can foresee a massive decline in gold prices if this scenario plays out. It will be the buy of at least three lifetimes because a U.S. dollar bull will be temporary as the U.S. will eventually succumb to the deflation too, but investors may continue selling gold even when it reaches insanely cheap levels.

This was how the greenback was lining up with history back in late 2014:

Here it is today:

Possible correction coming up before a run to 120 or higher?

Also from 2013: Death of the U.S. dollar greatly exaggerated; Historic U.S. dollar rally still likely

The U.S. dollar is the core of the global financial system and global powers, including China, will seek to preserve it as long as possible. As each nation passes through hyperinflation, however, they become freed from the global financial system via devaluation. At that point, the cost of launching a new financial system have been paid up front. As each nation goes through hyperinflation, it puts the U.S. dollar in a more untenable situation and makes a nation more likely to defect to a new system. Since gold will likely be a part of a new financial order, even if there is deflation it is wise to obtain physical metal, but the ultimate denouement of the U.S. dollar may be years away.

Key line in 6.8 yuan to $1. Beyond the only reference point is 8.28 yuan per $1 peg that existed for more than a decade before ending in 2005. A 5% drop in CNY will take out the 6.8 level. If the drop in USDCNH was proportional in percentage terms, it would trade above 7.

Gold would go below $1000 if the deflation scenario plays out, but the yuan price of gold may rally.

Reuters: Foreign banks in China could face curbs if they snub gold benchmark

China has warned foreign banks it could curb their operations in the world's biggest bullion market if they refuse to participate in the planned launch of a yuan-denominated benchmark price for the metal, sources said.

...A yuan fix would not be seen as an immediate threat to the gold pricing dominance of London and New York, but it could gain momentum if China's currency becomes fully convertible.

Or say, amid a yuan devaluation and collapse in dollar gold prices driven by the paper market, the yuan spot market traded substantially above NY or London paper prices, such as 10-20%. Then which is the real market?

China and other emerging market central banks aren't alone in feeling the heat: Sweden Prepares For FX "War" With Bloodthirsty Hedge Funds

“The market seems eager to challenge the Riksbank and there are rumors that many foreign hedge funds are long kronor and see a weakening of the krona after a possible intervention as a good buying opportunity,” he said. Exporters are also “structural krona buyers” and will probably exchange their foreign revenue after a dip, he said.

Krona has been fighting depreciation versus the U.S. dollar, making a possible triple bottom in 2015.

Take the volatility trade in 2016.

Denmark Initiates Temporary Border Control With Germany

In addition to borders with Germany, Denmark will fine Swedish vehicles carrying illegal migrants:
DR.DK: Danmark indfører midlertidig grænsekontrol

As the clock struck midnight expanded Swedes ID checks at the border. This means, among other things, that the Swedish law on carrier liability is in force.
Conveyor responsibility means that DSB, bus companies and shipping companies must ensure that none of their travelers crossing the border illegally. Where it happens, the carrier may risk fines of up to 40,000 Danish kroner.

Holland's Freedom Party Laps The Field

The ruling party in Holland is the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy. It is in a broad centrist coalition with the Labour Party. The two control 76 seats in the parliament.

Were the next election held today, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom would win between 30 and 39 seats based on current polling (another poll result is here). The ruling party would drop to between 20 and 26 seats, with Labour falling to 10 to 13 seats. In the one poll then, the Party for Freedom would capture more seats than the two ruling centrist parties.

Historical poll. 39 virtual parliamentary seats. 26% would vote PVV now. The Dutch people want their country back! pic.twitter.com/f1DS4LIZAu

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) November 29, 2015

I expect the next country to produce a similar result will be Sweden. Swedish nationalists cheer record poll support

The nationalist Sweden Democrats’ support has risen by 5.5 percent since the last Statistics Sweden survey in May and seven percent more than in the last elections in 2014.

“I think we have the potential to become the largest party,” Sweden Democrats' party secretary Richard Jomshof told the Swedish news agency, TT, after the figures were announced.

“I am absolutely convinced that the party has benefited from the situation that has arisen in recent months, even if we do not acknowledge the situation,” he said, referring to the refugee crisis.

Elections are not scheduled until 2017 in Holland and 2018 in Sweden. The response of the establishment thus far (as it is in almost every single nation experiencing this popular revolt) is to unite against the upstart parties, fueling their rise as the only credible opposition.

This One Chart Explains the Next 10 Years of Political Change

Before the chart, a rehash of some ideas discussed here previously.

First, negative social mood makes the public displeased with whichever party is in charge. Where the right rules, left wins and vice versa.

Second, if the current decline in social mood is an order of magnitude larger, than political change could be an order of magnitude larger as well. The left controls every developed country in the world, has a near lock on the media and universities. A recent outlier being Hungary, where the right-wing government made a sweep through the judiciary and the media.

Third, the ruling parties are moving in the opposite direction, pushing more extreme versions of peak mood policies. The key issue remains immigration/nationalism. The public turned against immigration more than a decade ago and there was political backlash in some countries, with anti-immigrant parties emerging and rising in the polls. Anti-euro and anti-EU parties emerged in Europe as well. The media push a pro-immigration narrative and with the migrant crisis, the political establishment did as well. The public also began turning against the euro and EU, and the ruling classes pushed ever harder, overturning democratic elections in several countries.

Fourth, the new axis of political debate is identity and community.

Fifth, in addition to breaking in the opposite direction from the public, the main opposition parties have revealed there is only one relatively unified political establishment. As Orwell put it, there is an Inner Party and an Outer Party. The Outer Parties are taking off their mask and showing themselves to be Inner Party too. Sweden Democrats were excluded from the government despite being the largest party. In the U.S., the term cuckservative has arisen to describe conservatives who agree with the left on the key issues of identity and community. There are rumors the GOP establishment prefers Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump. An alliance against the National Front is no longer a rumor or subject of a book like Submission; it is being openly discussed in France.

I've said that whoever picks up the immigration issue will run to victory because they will have the public support and zero political opposition. In fact, the establishment will fight them so hard that they will create a binary political situation. Instead of shifting to the right to maintain power (the Pareto optimal, robust position) the ruling class is moving into a fragile position that increases the likelihood and size of potential losses. Sweden Democrats are iced out of government, a big loss for them in terms of political power, but if the people want to throw out the government, now they have one option only: Sweden Democrats or perhaps a still non-existent far right party. If the GOP establishment does support Hillary Clinton, the argument that America has only one political party will be an observable fact. In France, if the left and right team up to defeat the National Front, voters will have the same choice going forward.

The political opposition is anti-fragile. If there is a major terror attack, if there is a major economic dislocation, if there is an unpopular war, then the opposition can go from obscurity to total political power in one election cycle. Donald Trump stated this inarticulately yesterday.

Trump: 'My numbers go way up' after tragedies

"I'm gonna get people jobs and I'm going to protect people. And that's why whenever there's a tragedy, everything goes up, my numbers go way up because we have no strength in this country, we have weak, sad politicians," the billionaire businessman told the network.

Trumps's sin was to publicly state an unspoken truth. When things go badly, people turn to the opposition. As the opposition narrows, people will turn to whatever option they have.

To summarize. The electorate increasingly wants a major change and it may desire a multi-generational political realignment. The ruling class responds by circling the wagons. This keeps outsiders from gaining political power, but by doing so, it increases the need/desire to throw out the entire political class.

Now, this reality has come to Germany. This chart below shows where voters place the various political parties on the political spectrum. Notice the Free Democrats and Merkel's CDU drift so far to the left that they are now considered left-wing parties.

Source: AfD rückt nach rechts, CDU nach links

The CSU has probably drifted left due to association with CDU, but as a regional party it wouldn't have national reach as a separate party. If voters want to make a change, they have to push farther to the right. The National Democratic Party is now closer to power and will only rise in stature if current events and social mood remain on their present course. Additionally, Hungary and Poland have taken hard right turns and Eastern European nations defend their new found nations sovereignty with more intensity that Western Europe. Common wisdom is that Germany will not move hard right like France because of WWII, but in fact, due to reuniting with East Germany, the nation is more likely to move to the right.

Nationalists Leading In Sweden Too

Even more extreme than U.S. immigration policy is Swedish immigration policy. Result?
Sweden’s nationalists lead polls for first time

The Sweden Democrat party has been gradually rising in popularity since it scored 12.9 percent in the country’s last general election in September 2014.

But a survey by pollsters YouGov published in Sweden’s Metro newspaper on Thursday suggested that 25.2 percent of those questioned would now vote for the nationalists, who are calling for dramatic cuts in immigration to Sweden.

..."There is a significant amount of dissatisfaction in general with the government, and not least against its immigration and integration policies,
and the begging issue. Many don't see the Moderates as an alternative on these issues so they turn to us instead," Sweden Democrats party secretary Richard Jomshof told news agency TT in a comment on the strong poll showing.

Political scientists were split on how to interpret the YouGov poll which was carried out last week, following both a high profile campaign by the Sweden Democrats to ban begging on Stockholm’s subway, and a double stabbing outside an Ikea store, for which two Eritrean asylum seekers were arrested, with one admitting to the crime.

Mainstream Europe May Win a Battle, But They Will Lose the War

Mainstream European elites are choosing the path of political suicide in Europe. This has major implications for the euro and EU because power is set to swing wildly in favor of nationalist parties. Political issues and alliances are going to change; formerly left- and right-wing enemies will be united on both sides of cultural and social issues, rather than opponents on economic issues. Since the 2008 crisis began it seemed as if the euro and economic issues would be the focal point for revived nationalist sentiment, but now immigration has exploded into the top issue.

Farage cannot divide us: Fury at 'sickening' attempt by Ukip to use Paris shootings to score political points on multiculturalism

However, Mr Farage used a series of TV and radio appearances to claim the attack was the result of 'having a fifth column' living in Western countries opposed to their ideals.

He told Channel 4 News: 'There is a very strong argument that says that what happened in Paris today is a result - and we've seen it in London too - is a result I'm afraid of now having a fifth column living within these countries.

'We've got people living in these countries, holding our passports, who hate us.

'Luckily their numbers are very, very small but it does make one question the whole really gross attempt at encouraged division within society that we have had in the past few decades in the name of multiculturalism.'

England recently had the Rotherham sex scandal, where well over 1,000 young girls were forced into prostitution by Pakistani rape gangs, and the government covered it up because they feared being branded racists due to the overwhelming preponderance of Pakistani men. On top of that, police arrested one of the fathers who tried to rescue his daughter. What takes the cake is that the same government, the same head of child services that sat quietly by as young girls were being raped, removed foster children from a loving home because the parents are UKIP supporters——because UKIP is racist.

Council which removed foster children after parents' Ukip membership was discovered finally apologises seven months on

Now Rotherham is now a prime example of the "unity" created by the elites in Britain:

Rotherham child grooming scandal is 'tearing town apart with racial tension'

Anger at the sexual abuse of teenage girls by Pakistani grooming gangs is tearing a town apart with racial tension, a Sunday People investigation has revealed.

Multi-cutural Rotherham in South Yorkshire was rocked by a damning report this summer, which showed that 1,400 vulnerable youngsters have been targeted for sex since 1997.

Worryingly, we found hate crime has soared and mutual suspicion is rife since it was revealed the culprits were mainly British Asians.

Surly white teenage youths prowl Rotherham’s estates, mouthing racist threats, and the market town has become a magnet for right-wing groups like the English Defence League, Britain First and the BNP.

Even the most simple of misunderstandings can now spark a race row.

Rotherham parents Nick Barnfield and Sarah Cleaves claimed they were thrown off a bus and branded racists last month after singing TV’s Peppa Pig theme tune to their baby.

They claim a woman wearing a hijab took offence to the snorting sounds in the song, believing they referred to pork being forbidden by Islam.

The call for unity by leaders in Europe is not about real unity. It is about preserving their jobs after creating the situation that now exists. Their efforts will fail because they have lost the support of the people, and by isolating the anti-immigration parties in Sweden, UK, France, and now Germany with Alterative Fur Deutschland, the elites have made them the main opposition, the only option.

Europe is experiencing negative social mood and the elite response is to push more extreme peak social mood policies. This will eventually result in a spectacular failure for the current establishment.

PEGIDA expects record rally on terror fears

In a survey conducted several weeks ago, 57 percent said they felt threatened by Islam, four points higher than in 2012. And 61 percent of non-Muslim Germans said Islam had no place in the West, according to the study released by the Bertelsmann Foundation think tank.

Nationalism Sweeps Europe

In Sweden, the Land of the Open Door, Anti-Muslim Sentiment Finds a Foothold

“It is a very difficult time in Sweden,” Dr. Groglopo said. “Now we can talk about things that we weren’t allowed to talk about before. It is a kind of coup d’état.”

Last month, the Sweden Democrats threatened to bring down Prime Minister Stefan Lofven’s minority government. Early elections were averted only through a last-minute deal that observers say granted the anti-immigrant party even more power by pulling it from the sidelines and making it the primary opposition.

The party’s growth has occurred despite the fact that roughly a fifth of Sweden’s 9.6 million people were born abroad or to immigrant parents in Sweden. Most immigrants here have access to education, but government figures show a disproportionate unemployment rate for them, more than twice the national rate of about 8 percent. The disparity helped fuel riots in immigrant neighborhoods outside Stockholm in 2013.

This would have been a good article in 2002 or maybe 2005, when Sweden could have turned away from extremist immigration policies befitting peak social mood. Now it has gone far beyond anti-Muslim sentiment to anti-foreigner sentiment and pro-Swedish sentiment.

The way the political landscape is set up, the Sweden Democrats are in striking distance of taking power in Sweden. By icing them out with a deal that angers both the right and left (Left leader in surprise attack on government), the mainstream political center has completely ceded the issues of immigration and identity to the Swedish Democrats and made them the chief opposition. They have handed them the keys to the castle. This is because SD are socialists, but also nationalists. They offer a similar economic agenda to the mainstream, but couple it with immigration restrictions. As Nigel Farage pointed out last year,

but the key argument today isn't the battle between free markets and state control, the key battle today is about community and identity, who are we as nations? Who are we as communities? How do we want to live? And this stuff has all been threatened by excessive immigration, and by things like our small businesses being closed down and our communities changing. The politics of the future, the politics of the next decade is about community and identity.

Right and left will have strange bedfellows over the next decade. Nationalism is currently championed to varying degrees, by the liberal UKIP in the UK, the socialist Swedish Democrats, the socialist Syriza in Greece, right-wing Fidesz in Hungary and socialist National Front in France. The Swedish Democrats, case in point, are a left-wing party except for their stance on immigration. Yet they are presented in the mainstream media and NYTimes as a far right extremist party. Readers of the NYTimes and other mainstream outlets will be thoroughly confused by political developments in Europe in years to come.

The rise of nationalism in also Sweden proceeded slowly over the past decade or so, but the explosion of the PEGIDA movement in Germany in a warning on current social mood and the political environment.

Note this growing movement in Germany, which has already surpassed the peak popularity of the Tea Party: One German in eight would join an anti-Muslim march if a rapidly-growing protest movement organized one in their home towns, according to an opinion poll published on Thursday.

PEGIDA only started a couple of months ago. Even in a nation where there is currently no nationalist movement, one can arise almost immediately. This is also reflected in the electoral success of UKIP, who stumbled upon the immigration issue in 2014 and rode it to a shocking victory in EU and local elections, and perhaps many more in the general in 2015.

Social Mood Still Sinking, Political Authorities Divide The Public

In Europe, extremist immigration policies from the era of peak social mood continues to create conflict. The elites still fail to hear the message though, branding opponents of extremist immigration policies as xenophobic. We are now well into the mood cycle and many mainstream parties still have not changed their immigration policies.
Xenophobia mushrooms in shadow of Berlin tower blocks

As Germany confronts a rise in far-right populism, with "anti-Islamisation" marches drawing thousands in the eastern city of Dresden, this bland corner of the sprawling capital, a district home to almost 300,000 people, has become another flashpoint of resentment and xenophobia.

"I have nothing against foreigners, I've been around them all my life," said Fritz Siebke, 91, enjoying a Christmas season banquet of meat rolls, potato dumplings and gravy with fellow German pensioners at a district community centre.

"But since we've accepted refugees into Marzahn-Hellersdorf, things have changed in the neighbourhood. My gardening tools were stolen from right outside my house. In the past, that wouldn't have happened."

Christa Timm -- a fellow retiree who has lived here "for half a century," since the days when a Marxist-Leninist regime was in charge -- grumbled that "it would have been good if the authorities had informed us properly."

In Sweden:

Anti-immigrant sentiment is part of the story, though Swedish public opinion has become much more favorable toward immigration since the early 1990s. For some, immigration has become a symbol of a society gone astray. For others, the number of immigrants over the last few years has simply been too high.
In fact, the numbers are high – not in comparison with a country like Turkey, but certainly relative to other European Union countries. Sweden and Germany receive the largest inflows of immigrants by far – and Germany is nearly ten times the size of Sweden.

...In the new century, refugees have come increasingly from the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. One percent of Sweden’s population today is from Iran, and almost 2% are from Iraq. Indeed, after the Iraq war, the small town of Södertälje took in more Iraqi refugees than the United States did.

Given the numbers, immigration in Sweden has worked much better than expected. But there are problems. The Swedish labor market’s sometimes rather strict systems and stable structures have impeded integration relative to many other countries.

No mention of the rapes. Here is a chart of Sweden's rising immigration population along with the rising number of rapes. This increase is in distinct contrast to most crime rates in the West, which are generally falling as the native population ages.

The key issue here isn't the behavior of immigrants, it is the elite response. The political establishment doesn't just ignore the issue, it attacks those who even bring it up as racist and xenophobic. As the German woman stated, "it would have been good if the authorities had informed us properly." Authorities aren't informing the public, they're actively covering up incidents, such as the systematic rape of children in Rotherham. The public is angry that these things happen, but the authorities respond by attacking the people, which ratchets up the anger and leads to populist movements. The political establishment could defuse right-wing populism tomorrow by shifting their policies, but instead they are pushing even harder in the opposite direction. It does not take a genius to predict political victory for whichever party opposes mass immigration.

The typical elite opinion can be seen in this FT editorial on the Sweden Democrats victory: Rightwing populists in Europe make mischief

However, the priority now must be to expose the Sweden Democrats as a party with a reckless approach and an array of intolerant, socially divisive policies wholly out of keeping with Swedish political culture. The main parties need not be scared by the Sweden Democrats’ threat to make the election campaign “a referendum for or against increased immigration”.

The Sweden Democrats abandoned their neo-Nazi doctrines more than 10 years ago, making it inaccurate to label them a far-right party, but most Swedes correctly regard the party’s aggressive line on immigration as unpalatable. The more intensely the party dwells on immigration, the more remote its chances of making an electoral breakthrough. Come March, Swedish voters can show the world that the tide of rightwing European populism is anything but unstoppable.

There is a massive chasm between the voters and the political establishment. Instead of making mischief, the far-right is on its way to making policy because they have a near total monopoly on the hottest political issue for the rest of this decade.

Leaving aside the immigration issue, there's negative social mood. Is the west clinically depressed?

To some people, the future will always be behind them. Rarely, however, has such gloom covered most of the western world at the same time. Even during those brief moments — the stagflation of the 1970s, for example — it faded with the crisis.

Today’s pessimism is more troubling in two ways. First, economics does not fully explain it.

Socionomics argues that negative social mood created the weak economy.

What then, is the matter with the west? The answer is beguilingly simple. We are growing older. In economic terms that means secular stagnation.

Aging may play some role, but it doesn't explain all of it. The article notes how stagnation leads to more conflict as people fight over fewer resources. The elite solution of importing more foreigners to fight over dwindling resources is a recipe for political disaster.

The U.S. is also seeing major negative mood as the society fragments. Only a little more than a week ago: AL SHARPTON LEADS MARCH IN DC AS NYC PROTESTERS CHANT: ‘WHAT DO WE WANT? DEAD COPS!’

This weekend, the call was answered. Progressives and the Police

‘What do we want? Dead cops!” So chanted marchers at one of the protests organized in the last month against the failure of grand juries to indict white officers in the death of black crime suspects Michael Brown and Eric Garner. On Saturday they got their wish, as a black assailant citing revenge for Brown and Garner traveled from Maryland to murder two cops sitting in their patrol car in Brooklyn.

Bratton: Tensions in NYC like 1970s

“Many issues of the 1970s are now revisiting us once again. And once again at the forefront of dealing with those will be America’s police forces,” Bratton said at a police promotion ceremony on Friday at NYPD headquarters, according to Capital New York.

Many Americans share Bratton’s alarm, according to a handful of recent polls.
Just Friday, a Gallup poll said the number of Americans citing race relations or racism as the most important problem in the country jumped to 13 percent, the highest since 1992 — in the midst of the Rodney King verdict — and up from 1 percent only one month previous in November.

Similarly, in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also released last week, a majority of 57 percent of Americans said race relations are “bad” with an additional 23 percent who said they’re “very bad.” A pair of polls from Quinnipiac University showed New York City voters disapprove of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s handling of relations between police and the community — with approval numbers dropping even further among minorities.

The difference with the 1970s is that the U.S. was still mainly dominated by a single ethnic group, so political debate was mainly ideological. Now politics is identity driven, with no dominant group able to set policy. President Obama's main political agenda are things such as the "War on Women" and drumming up local news into national news, such as the Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown shootings. Divide and conquer is now the operating agenda of America's political establishment. Exactly the policy agenda one would expect in a time of negative social mood.

Sweden's Govt May Fall

Another repeat in European politics. Upstart right-wing party opposes immigration; party is shunned by mainstream, sending all anti-immigration voters into the upstart party.

Swedish government on brink of collapse

The anti-immigration Sweden Democrat party, which holds the balance of power in parliament, said on Tuesday it would support an alternative budget proposed by the centre-right Alliance opposition bloc, leaving the government isolated.

..."If the Alliance doesn't change its policies [on immigration], we would try to bring down a government of those parties too," he said.

Costs for asylum seekers including housing, language lessons and welfare allowances totalled 1.5 percent of the country's 2013 budget, with Sweden the biggest per-capita recipient of asylum seekers and refugees last year, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The Sweden Democrats doubled their support in the September election, taking 13 percent of the vote and becoming the third largest party in parliament.

Mainstream parties have shunned them, and the budget gives them a rare opportunity to show their political strength.

Sweden had an election three months ago: Sweden election: Social Democrats rule out far-right pact

The leader of Sweden's Social Democrats says he will try to form a government after their election win, but will not work with the far right.

Results show Stefan Lofven's opposition party is set to return to power, but with no clear parliamentary majority.

They give the centre-left bloc 43.7%, ahead of 39.3% for Fredrik Reinfeldt's centre-right ruling coalition. The far-right Sweden Democrats were at 13%.

Sweden cannot form a govt without the Sweden Democrats unless there's a grand right-left coalition. Given the current state of social mood (Social Mood in Europe Boiling), that isn't happening. Sweden's asylum days are numbered and may be over before the end of 2015.

Social Mood in Europe Boiling

Next year could be a wild one. Immigration sentiment is turning negative and violence by Muslims is now being answered by violent right-wing riots as the population increasingly gives up on politicians who refuse to address their concerns. Toss in anger at the ruling classes for the state of the economy, movements to reject bailout deals, leave the euro, secede, and leave the EU, and one of these sparks may finally hit the powder keg.

Italy's immigration crisis moves from sea to streets

"Why do they have to be taken care of? It's me that needs taking care of!"

Like many of Italy's poor, 51-year-old Elvio has had enough. And the unemployed construction worker thinks he knows who to blame.

Born and raised in a rundown suburb of Rome where residents last week laid violent siege to a holding centre for asylum seekers, Elvio belongs to a strata of Italian society whose frustration is beginning to boil over after years of falling incomes, employment and hope.

And with the country struggling to cope with an influx of tens of thousands of migrants fleeing conflict and poverty in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, that anger increasingly has a focus.

The anti-immigration sentiment in Italy is nothing compared to the Clockwork Orange underway in Sweden:

Muslim Gangs Continue To Terrorize 55 Neighborhoods, Police Powerless

Despite being a small country of less than 10 million citizens, a 2012 study showed an average of one school being burned per day in Sweden, costing tax payers upwards of half a billion SEK annually. By comparison, Greece has 11 million citizens and averages only five school fires per year.

Not even the police are safe from attacks. In May 2014, two police officers were cornered by 50 thugs in the no-go zone of Landskrona. They pulled their weapons to hold off the attackers and called for backup, but the police commander refused to send in backup, fearing escalation. One of the officers knew a few locals who intervened and convinced the gang to let the officers escape.

While such brazen aggression is rare, patrol cars are frequently pelted with rocks, and the drivers are targeted with green lasers. Blinding drivers with the powerful, hand-held lasers is a growing “sport,” where the goal is to make the driver crash. Buses, taxis, delivery companies and mailmen are also popular targets.

...Ethnic Swedes are also being attacked. Local celebrity Linda Edenström’s 12-year old son was savagely beaten. In October, he took the subway after school to give a birthday present to a girl in his class. He was unaware she lived in a no-go zone, and when he exited the station he was promptly stopped by seven grown immigrants. They declared that no whites were allowed and proceeded to attack him while hurling anti-white slurs.

Swedish law states that the incident is not a hate crime. The law does not apply to an immigrant targeting a native Swede, even if an immigrant does so while explicitly stating they are doing it for racial reasons. However, the reverse situation with a native Swede saying a slur that could be perceived as racist has severe civil and criminal charges.

How long before Sweden has an Anders Breivik?

UKIP is now getting a challenge from Tories on immigration:

Major to Europe - Cut immigration or the UK may leave
Immigration is changing character of UK schools, claims Iain Duncan Smith

Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary, has said that non-English-speaking children are changing the character of British schools, as Ukip looks likely to gain its second MP in the Rochester and Strood byelection.

The senior Conservative said an academic report setting out the billions of pounds that EU migrants had added to the economy was “silly” because it only looks at immigration in terms of the financial benefits to the economy.

Italy's Grillo takes anti-euro campaign to Brussels

The leader of Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement, Beppe Grillo, has gone to the European Parliament (EP) to present his programme to get a referendum in Italy on leaving the euro "as soon as possible".

The comedian-turned-politician is aiming to collect 4m signatures by next spring.

He will then go to parliament in Rome, where many of his MPs now sit, and demand a referendum. If millions of Italians sign the petition, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi won't be able to simply brush this off.

Spanish minister warns of violence over Catalonia's secession bid

The Catalan regional government’s insistence on independence from Spain may result in widespread violence in the autonomous region, says the Spanish interior minister.

"A process of these characteristics, by its very nature, generates radicalism,” Jorge Fernández Díaz told Spanish daily, ABC, on Sunday.

“This radicalization, combined with frustration, could degenerate in violence,” Díaz added, noting that the combination is “very dangerous."

Catalonia’s President Artur Mas has pledged to pursue secession efforts following a symbolic independence referendum held on November 9.

Greek bond yield rises above 8% on election fears
Greek opposition leader calls on parties to set early election date

Greek opposition leader Alexis Tsipras on Monday called on party leaders to set a date for an early election, arguing polls must be held before the government signs any binding deals with EU/IMF lenders.

Greece's government is under growing pressure ahead of a presidential vote in February, which could trigger a snap election and bring Tsipras's radical leftist Syriza party to power.

The government is negotiating an early exit from Greece's EU/IMF bailout. Tsipras has suggested a future Syriza government would not respect decisions made without its consent.

'The far-right wants more riots'

Virchow: Right-wing groups celebrate these events as a great success on their Facebook-Pages and blogs. They were in control of the streets in Cologne, and that has not happened in a long time. Most marches had been blocked or had been accompanied by heavy police-presence.


But this time, thousands could march through Cologne without much restriction, some of them went on manhunts and some attacked journalists. In their view, that is a great success.

Not only right-wing bloggers celebrate that. On social networks, many users seemed to be happy that "finally someone is standing up against Salafism in Germany." Have right-wing extremists found a topic that proves popular?

Right-wing in Europe Reaching Critical Mass; Euro Bulls Should Read Polls, Not Charts

Notice the tone of the article, that somehow the right-wing is going to screw up the EU. This is because the EU has become a left-wing institution. However, there is a strong idea of a united Europe among the European people, and it wouldn't surprise to see the EU become right-wing. It could enforce a continent-wide restriction on immigration, for example.

Secessionists movements in Catalonia, Scotland and elsewhere are pro-EU in that they make more sense within the EU, the same way it would make sense for part of a U.S. state to become a new state within the U.S. If the EU falls apart due to nationalism, local secessionist movements will die out.

Watch out for the rise of a European Tea Party

In the coming year, however, the big danger to the European single currency is that the political consensus that underpins the euro could come unstuck. A weak economy, weariness with austerity, anger about immigration and resentment of a remote-seeming EU are fueling the ascent of anti-establishment and nationalist political parties across the continent.

These rising political forces are gaining ground in big EU countries such as France, the Netherlands, Britain and Italy – and also in smaller nations such as Greece, Hungary, Finland and Austria. Given that the EU requires unanimity for many big decisions, even a small state that goes rogue could cause real trouble.

I have seen the euro bulls becoming more bullish now that the debt crisis has been quiet for a couple of years and the euro is back in the mid 30s. This was always a political issue though, and next year is when the idea of an EU breakup for political reasons may finally become a mainstream topic. The above article is just the beginning; if you thought the Tea Party was hated, wait until you get a load of the hate that will be directed at UKIP, FN, and other anti-EU parties. They can do far more damage to the status quo in Europe, far beyond what the Tea Party would do even in its wildest dreams. Should the euro begin selling off, bond yields will rise and the crisis will be back. Right-wing parties are pro-cyclical in this regard: they are elected as anger at the EU rises. Their victories may lead to a weaker euro and more debt crises, which will increase anger at the EU and elect more right-wing politicians. If and when the EU falls apart, the egg will be all over the faces of the left. It will not be a great a loss as the fall of communism, but the left will be seriously damaged. Extremely bitter fights are coming in the next year.

First Sweden, Now England: Will This Be The Summer of Reaction?

Things are heating up now and the public is fired up. In Sweden, the police did nothing to stop immigrant rioters, but came out in force to arrest Swedes trying to defend property. In England, the government first let in millions of immigrants because they hated their own people. This hatred is also reflected in the law, which allows Muslims to call for violence against British people, but which punishes British people for simply saying they do not like immigration, such as Emma West or the 85-year old grandmother who yelled outside a mosque, both of whom have been arrested. Emma West had her child taken away and faces state prosecution for ranting about her dislike of immigrants on a train.

Now it's all coming home to roost. I have previously said that when the Left calls every person to the right of open borders a racist, they also bring the real racists out from exile and into the mainstream of politics. The tide is starting to turn quickly in England.
Tensions on streets after slaughter of British soldier: War memorials defaced and mosque firebombed as EDL march on Westminster

It's too early to say if the situation will spiral out of control, but it's clear the average man on the street is disillusioned with the establishment in Sweden and the UK. Right-wing, anti-establishment parties are going to gain big from these events and may even be surpassed by farther right parties. I suspect we will see UKIP in England shift to the right as it becomes clear the public is fed up with the immigration policy. It could also devolve into violence because the public trust in government is sinking to new lows, they do not trust the police to act in the interests of the native population.

Extreme immigration policies coming home to roost

At the peak of social mood, Western societies opened themselves completely and believed that all people and cultures are the same. This was not a foreign policy, they believed that inviting the world into their nations would make their countries better, the polar opposite of trough social mood policy of banning immigration and believing that foreigners bring nothing but trouble. Just as peak xenophobia ignores the benefits of eevn limited immigration, peak openness ignored the great costs of mass migrations. Mass immigration did not lead to assimilation, it lead to separation.

Now that social mood is declining, the clear rifts between immigrants and the native communities are leading to a growing number of clashes, sometimes violent. The result will be a mix of authoritarian police state tactics to deal with volatile immigrant populations or anti-immigration policies that restrict the flow or deport foreigners.

Killing of gay man in NYC triggers protests; officials to increase police presence
2 more reports of anti-gay attacks in NYC following killing where man was taunted with slurs

New York City police say there have been two more reports of possible anti-gay attacks, following the killing of a gay man taunted with homophobic slurs.

Police spokesman Paul Browne says the attacks occurred Monday and early Tuesday.

In one, a 45-year-old man was attacked in Manhattan's East Village by a drinking companion who yelled an epithet.

In the second, two men were walking in lower Manhattan at about 5 a.m. Tuesday. Two other men yelled homophobic slurs in Spanish and attacked them. They were arrested on hate crime assault charges.

At least two of the three cases involved Hispanics, possibly immigrants.

Stockholm burns as rioters battle police after three days of violence in immigrant 'ghetto'

An anti-immigrant party, the Sweden Democrats, has risen to third in polls ahead of a general election due next year, reflecting unease about immigrants among many voters.

They will continue rising in the polls, count on that.

This post,Wait, there are riots in Sweden?, has a great chart explaining what Swedes really think of immigration, despite what they might say.


The left and their media allies are completely out of touch, see Reuters: Sweden's capital hit by worst riots in years

After decades of practicing the "Swedish model" of generous welfare benefits, Sweden has been reducing the role of the state since the 1990s, spurring the fastest growth in inequality of any advanced OECD economy.

While average living standards are still among the highest in Europe, governments have failed to substantially reduce long-term youth unemployment and poverty, which have affected immigrant communities worst.

The left-leaning tabloid Aftonbladet said the riots represented a "gigantic failure" of government policies, which had underpinned the rise of ghettos in the suburbs.

"We have failed to give many of the people in the suburbs a hope for the future," Anna-Margrethe Livh of the opposition Left Party wrote in the daily Svenska Dagbladet.

The issue is Muslim immigration from the Third World. Inequality was imported via immigration, it has nothing to do with economic policies and the general public knows it. The left is heading for a total collapse and they will leave an opening for far-right parties if legitimate concerns about immigration are waved off as xenophobia or racism.

Reliably more right-wing RT presents the counter argument in ‘Multiculturalism failing’: Swedish PM pleas for order as riots engulf Stockholm suburbs

“This is a clear consequence of this multiculturalism politics that Sweden adopted around ‘80s and increased in the ‘90s... And this is not a unique one single occasion… we have had these ethnic-based riots against Swedish authorities. We have seen this in Western Europe, that is very sad, and I think we will see more of this, if we don’t change the politics,” the chairman of the Sweden’s National Democrats Party Marc Abramsson told RT.

While not elaborating on the incident that caused the current riots, Abramsson said all such incidents have a common “problem beneath” – that is, the immigrants not identifying themselves with the country’s society, nor accepting the country’s authorities, sticking only to their own ethnic group.

“Sweden has been trying harder than any of the countries in Europe to try to push for integration. We have invested virtually billions from taxpayers’ money into it, we have tried everything that the scientists have presented – and still it’s not working,” the politician argued.

“They live in their area, and they feel the area is their own. And when the police arrive, they feel they are you intruding into their, sort of, ‘country.’ The police… who work in these areas, there have to be in two cars, one protecting the other. People are trying to maintain buildings, to have security guards, the fire department can’t work, they get attacked by angry immigrant youth that feel like they’re intruding into their own area, even though they’re trying to help,” Abramsson went on to say.

It is true, Sweden has bought the multiculturalist line hook, line and sinker and the result is on display before the world as negative social mood engulfs a fragmented society.

And finally, Islamic fanatics wielding meat cleavers butcher a British soldier in London

‘This British soldier is an eye for an eye a tooth for tooth. We apologise that women had to see this today, but in our lands our women have to see the same.’

In footage screened by ITV News, he added: ‘You people will never be safe. Remove your government. They don’t care about you.

‘You think David Cameron is going to get caught in the street when we start busting our guns? You think your politicians are going to die? No, it’s going to be the average guy like you – and your children.

‘So get rid of them – tell them to bring our troops back so we can ... so you can all live in peace.’

......The man, known only as James, said he and his partner saw two black men attack a young man aged around 20 in a Help for Heroes T-shirt like he was ‘a piece of meat’.

Fighting back tears, he told LBC Radio: ‘They were hacking at this poor guy, literally. They were chopping him, cutting him. These two guys were crazed. They were just animals.

'They dragged him from the pavement, dumped his body in the middle of the road and left (it) there.’