Socionomics Confirmed by Study: Pop Music Turned Angry As Social Mood Turned Negative

Pop music was at its happiest in the 1950s and early 1980s, a confirmation of Socionomic theory that predicts happier, positive themes during positive mood and sad, angry and negative themes as mood turns. Using the stock market as a guide, from the late 1960s through early 1980s was a period of very negative mood. The bull market kicked off in the early 1980s and popular cultural was immediately flooded with happier tunes and heroes in the movies.

Daily Mail: Pop songs have become angrier AND sadder! Scientists analysed lyrics from 6,000 best-selling songs from the 1950s to 2016 to make the finding
Songs released during the mid 1950s were the least angry and the anger expressed in lyrics has increased gradually until peaking in 2015.

The analysis also revealed some variations with songs released between 1982 and 984 being less angry compared to any other period, except for the 1950s.

In the mid 1990s, songs became angrier and the increase in anger was sharper during that time in comparison to previous years.

The expression of sadness, disgust and fear also increased over time, although the increase was milder compared to the increase in the expression of anger.

Disgust increased gradually, but was lower in the early 1980s and higher in the mid and late 1990s.

Popular music lyrics expressed more fear during the mid 1980s and the fear decreased sharply in 1988.
Fall of communism?
Another sharp increase in fear was observed in 1998 and 1999, with a sharp decrease in 2000.
There was the Asian Crisis in 1997, a large market correction in 1998 and fear over Y2K, followed by the stock market peak in 2000.
The study also showed that joy was a dominant tone in popular music lyrics during the late 1950s, but it decreased over time and became much milder in the recent years.

An exception was observed in the mid 1970s, when joy expressed in lyrics increased sharply.
The stock market made its nominal low in 1974 and it would rally 78 percent into the 1976 high.


Necessity is the Mother of Invention: Chinese Stock Market Edition

Global Times: New regulations needed for China’s stock market
China's stock market, which started from scratch in the 1990s, is now undergoing a period of transition and transformation, with many basic institutional arrangements still missing. Here are some thoughts about defining the basic institutional arrangements.

First, the delisting system and the registration-based stock listing system. The mainland A-share market, where about 3,000 to 4,000 companies are currently listed, has only seen a limited number of companies delisting by the end of 2018.

In the global equity market, however, the number of newly-listed companies is generally equivalent to the number of companies delisting each year.

Under the system of "survival of the fittest" in the capital markets, companies that are unqualified, record bad performance or violate regulations are removed from the stock markets, and only those high-quality, good performing and well managed stocks can remain. Therefore, a sound delisting system would prompt listed companies to pay more attention to their own quality, results and openness of disclosures.

Second, there are 140 million individual stock investors in China, accounting for more than 80 percent of the total A-share transactions annually. Therefore, the Chinese equity market has always been criticized for being a retail market and lacking medium- and long-term institutional funds. Interestingly, in major global stock markets, 80 percent of transactions are reserved for institutional investors and 20 percent for retail investors.

Among various medium- and long-term investments, what the A-share market lacks most is annuity investments, one of the three pillars of the social pension insurance. In the US, corporate annuities account for majority of the US pension system.

Third, China's fund management industry has a history of more than 10 years, but it still needs further improvement. In markets like the UK, for example, some fund management companies have been in business for more than 200 years.

At present, there are about 100 public funds controlling 13 trillion yuan and more private funds managing more capital. Out of the 13 trillion yuan ($1.92 trillion) of public funds, only less than 2 trillion yuan is invested in the stock market, which is far from enough to support the market.
SCMP: Shanghai’s hotly anticipated tech board vital to China’s global financial ambitions, says top official
The new board is a key pillar of a new action plan, unveiled at the briefing, to build the city into one of the world’s top financial centres by next year.

It is one of the most important moves by China’s leadership to deepen financial reforms and help Shanghai maintain its status as a pioneer of those reforms, said Zheng.

The action plan outlines six “missions” aimed at helping Shanghai to deepen its financial reforms and further open up its markets. The goal is to develop Shanghai into a top-notch global financial market with a focus on yuan-denominated products, equipped with a strong capacity to deploy financial resources.
China.org: Shanghai aims to become leading global finance hub
Approved by the State Council, eight central regulatory bodies led by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, issued the plan which aims for the municipality to establish itself as a global financial market leader and a go-to market for renminbi-based trading by 2020. A legal, innovative, highly efficient, transparent and open financial system is expected to be in place by that time.

Xu Zhong, director-general of the PBOC's research bureau, said the release of the action plan indicates that Shanghai has entered into the final stage before becoming a global financial hub.

Wu Qing, Shanghai's vice-mayor, said the city should focus on the development of six sectors-asset management, cross-border investment and financing, financial technology, insurance, renminbi asset pricing and financial risk management.
CNStock: 中央深改委会议通过设立科创板并试点注册制总体实施方案
The meeting reviewed and approved the “Implementation Plan for Establishing the Science and Technology Board and the Pilot Registration System on the Shanghai Stock Exchange”, “Implementation Opinions on Establishing the Science and Technology Board and the Pilot Registration System on the Shanghai Stock Exchange”, and “Building a National Park as "Guidance Opinions on the Nature Protection System of the Subject", "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of Education and Teaching Reform to Improve the Quality of Compulsory Education", "Opinions on Encouraging and Leading Talents to Flow to the Frontier and Grassroots Areas" and "Towards Deepening Reform in the Field of Politics and Law" Implementation Opinions, “Guiding Opinions on Coordinating the Reform of Property Rights System of Natural Resources Assets”, “Several Opinions on Establishing a Land and Space Planning System and Supervising Implementation”, “Guiding Opinions on Building a Market-Oriented Green Technology Innovation System”, Natural Forest Protection and Restoration System Program, National Ecological Civilization Experimental Area (Hainan) Implementation Plan, Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park System Pilot Program and Central Comprehensive Deepening Reform Committee 2019 Work Points, Central Comprehensive Deepening Reform Committee Summary of work in 2018 Divisions "," the party's eighteen big comprehensively deepen reforms since the implementation of the summary evaluation report. "

  The meeting pointed out that the establishment of the science and technology board and the pilot registration system on the Shanghai Stock Exchange is an important measure to implement the innovation-driven development strategy and deepen the capital market reform. It is necessary to enhance the inclusiveness of the capital market for science and technology innovation enterprises, focus on supporting key core technology innovations, and improve the ability of serving the real economy. It is necessary to steadily pilot the registration system, and promote the reform of the basic systems such as issuance, listing, information disclosure, trading, and delisting, and establish and improve the stock issuance and listing system centered on information disclosure.


No Stimulus Coming

From last month via the SCMP: Guangzhou further eases housing restrictions, sets stage for more mainland China cities to loosen curbs
The mainland Chinese city of Guangzhou, one of the country’s largest, further eased housing restrictions on Monday, five days after it scrapped a ban on sales of apartments to individuals.

The city authorities said in a document that Guangzhou residents who had paid towards a housing provident fund policy could withdraw money for buying homes for living in nearby cities such as Foshan and Dongguan.
The December 70-city NBS report is out and it shows home prices rose 3 percent in Guangzhou last month, before the easing restrictions kicked in. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Chinese policymakers are trapped because increased credit growth will be like a match to gasoline in the housing market.

SCMP: Prices of China’s new homes grow at the weakest pace in eight months as purchase curbs bite hard amid a slowing economy
The prices of new homes rose by 0.77 per cent last month across 70 cities monitored by the government, according to Bloomberg’s calculation of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. This was slower than the 0.98-per cent gain in November, and was the slowest clip since April 2018.

“The continuous slowdown in prices suggests that some developers are cutting the prices of newly launched projects to boost year-end sales,” said Yan Yuejin, research director at E-House China R&D Institute.
This is slower growth, but it is not slow enough for policy easing, particularly in the credit market.

The existing housing market shows more signs of slowdown with 22 cities reporting falling prices. Existing home prices increased only 0.3 percent, one of the widest single-month gaps in recent years.

This Chinese article says "the turn" to broad home price declines is underway.

21st Century: 22城二手房价格下跌 市场正接近全面下调拐点
Compared with the new home market, the price control of second-hand houses is relatively loose, and in many hot cities, second-hand house transactions have accounted for more than half of the market. The industry generally believes that the change in second-hand housing prices is more reflective of market trends.

Some institutions believe that the reality of the decline in second-hand housing prices in 22 cities indicates that housing prices are moving toward a downward turning point. But this view is controversial. The Shell Research Institute pointed out that the just-needed groups that are more sensitive to price are choosing to enter the market after the price stabilizes, and more and more owners also choose to raise the price. These leading indicators mean that there is limited room for future prices to continue to fall.
The real value of the renminbi for Chinese citizens is how much house it can buy. What will be the value in the yuan if a stimulus program causes Chinese homes to jump another 50 or 100 percent in price?


China Pushes Science and Technology Board

State directed capitalism in China is working towards a science & technology board. It is expected that overseas and Hong Kong listed companies could be included. Chinese brokers have been recommending science and technology shares as part of the overall push in these industries.

CN Stock:科创板上市企业将以五大行业为主 是否接纳VIE结构尚在讨论
The Shanghai Securities News reporter was informed that brokers have begun to recommend to the relevant departments the listed companies. Companies in the five major sectors will be encouraged to focus.

  These five areas include:

  First, the new generation of information technology, mainly including integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and so on.

  Second, high-end equipment manufacturing and new materials, mainly including high-end rail transportation, marine engineering, high-end CNC machine tools, robots and new materials.

  Third, new energy and energy conservation and environmental protection, mainly including new energy, new energy vehicles, advanced energy conservation and environmental protection technology.

  Fourth, Biomedicine, mainly including biomedicine and medical devices.

  Fifth, Technical services mainly refer to enterprises that provide technical services for the above four major areas.

  For the recommended enterprises, it is required to have independent intellectual property rights, and the related technologies are the main driving force for the growth of the company's income. The main income of the enterprises comes from related technologies, with mature R&D systems, R&D teams, and mature business models.

  In addition, there are market rumors that the company will not accept listed companies with red-chip structure and VIE structure. According to the reporter's understanding from the people close to the regulatory authorities, the rumor is not true. The relevant departments of the company's acceptance of the red chip structure and the VIE structure listed companies are still carefully considering the discussion.

  It is understood that the related work of setting up the science and technology board and pilot registration system is in full swing. Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said on the morning of the 12th that the CSRC is guiding and coordinating with the Shanghai Stock Exchange to fully listen to market opinions and opinions of various ministries. "We are working day and night to complete the very important and glorious task handed over to the Party Central Committee and General Secretary Xi as soon as possible."
Checkmate globalists.

Almost every nation runs on state-directed capitalism. In the United States, companies must comply with a long list of regulations that cover everything from economic to social policy. Go pull up a corporate homepage and most of them will have non-business agendas prominently promoted. This is no different than Chinese companies that promote their adherence to central planning goals. In the U.S., nobody is in charge of the self-executing ideological program, but the end effect is the same. You can no more resist the mob in America than the central committee in China.

China's is shifting the Made in China 2025 strategy, but it isn't going away. It is being promoted through new channels. No matter what policy the U.S. demands, China will find a workaround unless that policy is "we won't try to compete with you." And that isn't going to happen.


No Monetary Stimulus Coming: China's Housing Trap

In the wake of the RRR cut and overall decline in interest rates, including mortgage rates, articles about the impact on housing are coming out. The common theme is no, housing isn't going to be revived by the RRR cut. However, the bigger story is why these articles are being published. Chinese expect monetary stimulus will save housing. If at any time China decides to pump money into the economy, all levels of Chinese society are going to pour capital into the housing market. Exactly what the Chinese government doesn't want.

iFeng: 房贷利率松动、央行降准,楼市今年怎么走?
A certain degree of positive real estate, but the impact or limited

For this RRR cut, some analysts believe that this may be able to hedge the current property market to a certain extent, but under the keynote of “staying and not speculating”, the degree of influence remains to be tested.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2018 pointed out that "it is necessary to build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, and insist that the house is used for housing, not for the purpose of speculation, because of urban policy, classified guidance, and taming the city. The government's main responsibility is to improve the housing market system and housing security system."

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center think tank, said that after the RRR cut, the bank's loan policy will tend to be loose, including development loans and personal mortgage loans, and even loans in the rental market. In fact, they will face a loose concept. Helping the follow-up of such markets to be active.

Previous market views pointed out that some real estate companies face certain financial pressure this year. According to figures released by the central bank's Shanghai headquarters, in November 2018, the city's domestic and foreign currency real estate development loans decreased by 2.191 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 billion yuan.

On the other hand, Yan Yuejin pointed out that it must be seen that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development should set the price of the property market in 2019 to be stable, stable, and stable. Therefore, the RRR is not directly related to the property market, nor should the property market be too fanciful. Fully liberalized.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, publicly pointed out that after the RRR cut, the bank capital pressure will be further released, which will help guide the mortgage interest rate down. However, under the large-scale control framework of “staying in the house, not relying on the city, policy, and classification guidance”, it is unlikely that the old road will be fully stimulated.

On December 15, 2018, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November 2018. In general, the sales prices of commodity housing in first-tier cities have risen and fallen, and the growth rate of second- and third-tier cities has been stable.

Specifically, from the ring, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in the four first-tier cities rose slightly by 0.3%. Among them: Beijing and Shanghai rose 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, Guangzhou was flat, and Shenzhen fell 0.2%. The sales price of second-hand homes fell by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.6%, 0.1%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
The flip side is if banks don't want to lend and Chinese don't want to borrow for non-speculative business investment, the impact of net monetary stimulus will also be limited. China is in a much tougher spot than many investors realize and it is also, by it's own prudent policymaking, limited in its options.

Chinese Youth Don't Want One Child, Let Alone Two

What depresses fertility? Urbanization, decline of traditional religious belief, high cost of family formation, length of education, feminism and modern life in general that places an emphasis on self-actualization/hedonism/materialism. What is China's development strategy? Urbanization, education. China was "feminist before feminism" under Mao. Under Xi, traditional religions are being ground into dust. The "China Dream" is materialist, as is scientific socialism.

Result: Chinese fertility keeps on dropping.

21st Century: 年轻人为何一孩都不愿生?中国人口拐点逼近
Today, the situation is vastly different. Ms. Pan said that her daughter works in the first-tier cities. Although she has a boyfriend, she has not planned to marry. Even if she is married, her daughter’s plan is to give birth after the age of 30. The reason is that the work is busy and there is no time to live.

"In my daughter's view, raising a child is a big burden. A child is not willing to give birth. What about a child?" The concept of childbearing such as Ms. Pan’s daughter is spreading among young people in China.

Judging from the data on the births of 2018 published in some regions, the number of newborns has dropped significantly. Organizations and scholars have begun to predict when negative population growth will come.

According to industry insiders interviewed by 21st Century Business Herald, the negative population growth is relatively slow at first, and the impact is limited. But what should really be worried about is the rapid decline in population and the negative effects on the economy and society in the long run.
The West has an insane solution: flood the country with migrants, thus raising the cost of family formation and depressing native fertility further. At least in the case of Japan, and probably China, they will still exist in 100 years, and they will exist without resorting to ethnic cleansing. (Although China is jumping the gun in Xinjiang.)
Why don't young people have children?
“Is it too little to work overtime or not to work? Is the game not fun or the TV series is not good? Why do you have children?” Whenever there is a discussion on why the young people don’t have children on the Internet, similar ridicules will always appear.

Behind the ridicule is a hard reality. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of births in China in 2017 was 17.23 million, which was 630,000 less than the 17.86 million announced in 2016, a drop of 3.5%. Although the figures for 2018 have not yet been announced, the continued decline in the birth population is basically a foregone conclusion.

From the two children in 2014 to the full two children in 2016, the population policy has been adjusted, but the number of births has fallen short of expectations.

In 2017, the number of second children rose to 8.83 million, an increase of 1.62 million year-on-year. The proportion of the two children in the total birth population reached 51.2%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year, but the birth population in 2017 decreased. Li Xi, director of the Department of Population and Employment of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed this before, mainly because the number of births of a child fell more.

Behind this data is a more serious reality - many young people are not even a child. What exactly became their "contraceptive"?
An aggressive Zero Population Growth (ZPG) advocate might add forced birth control or sterilization. Aside from those extreme policies, China is already implementing a full-court press against fertility.
According to the "China Birth Report 2019" issued by the Ren Zeping team of the Evergrande Institute, the weakening of the maternity base and the constraints of birth costs have hindered the birth of young people.

The report believes that the further decline in the fertility rate in modern society is not due to the reduction of willingness to give birth, but mainly because the increase in cost leads to the incomplete realization of people's fertility willingness. The gap between the actual fertility level and the willingness to fertility level is determined by the cost. Late marriage and late childbearing, single Dingke, infertility and other weaken the birth basis, housing, education, medical and other direct costs, pension burden, high opportunity costs also inhibit fertility behavior, but can not afford to afford.

“House prices have risen rapidly. The loan-to-income ratio increased from 17% to 44% in 2004-2017; the cost of education has increased significantly, especially in the provision of public kindergartens. The proportion of Chinese public kindergartens in 1997-2017 has dropped from 95% to 44%; Medical expenses continue to rise; the number of only children in China is about 180 million. The 'four-one-one' family structure pension burden reinforces the willingness to bear children; the female labor participation rate is high but the employment rights protection is not enough, resulting in high opportunity cost of birth," the report said.

In addition, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that in the current situation in China, in order to maintain the fertility rate in the replacement generation of the population (maintaining the next generation of population is equal to the previous generation, no increase or decrease), only one child is born. not enough. But the parents who want to have two children are not enough.

Li Min (pseudonym), who has been working in Beijing and has been a child for one and a half years, is currently considering whether to add a brother or sister to his son. As the only child, her greatest experience is that a child is too lonely. In her opinion, regenerating one is the best gift for children. But thinking about it, Li Min has temporarily shelved the plan.

"The biggest problem is that no one takes her." Li Min told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that his parents retired after three years, and the father-in-law retired after one year. He is now a mother-in-law with a child. A few days ago, the mother-in-law returned to her hometown. I can't turn it anymore, and there is no one to bring it back. I have to work and give it to the babysitter.
Modern people have substituted GDP for children. This is fine at the individual level, but it fails at the societal level. Or another way, it is not a long-term sustainable policy. Modern people are being wiped out by mass migration in the West and if that is eventually halted, they will be wiped out from their own ranks by religious fundamentalists.

China has such high population density that it has room to decline. Once China's population peaks, the housing bubble will burst. The initial hit from an economic crisis will be another drop in fertility, but when home prices settle lower, fertility will see a bump. As population declines over time, home prices will continue falling outside of major population centers. Beijing and Shanghai will still have very low fertility, but second- and third-tier cities will see fertility rise an population density and home prices fall.
The research by Ren Zeping’s team predicts that the Chinese population will peak around 2024-2031, depending on the future encouragement of birth policy.

The National Population Development Plan (2016-2030) predicts that the turning point will occur around 2030, with a peak of 1.45 billion people.

The United Nations World Population Prospects (2017) has nine forecasting schemes for population size. The peak population of China based on different hypotheses is earliest in 2021, and at the latest in 2044, 7 of which are predicted to peak in 2032 and before. .

“It’s still shocking to hear that China’s population has grown negatively for more than a decade or even years. Living in a large, crowded city can make people feel too much, not people.” Ms. Pan’s daughter said.

According to Liang Jianzhang, a demographer, many people think that the size of China's big cities is already too big. What is needed is to control rather than expand the size of the city. But in fact, whether it is from economic equilibrium or international comparison, even the scale of first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing is small rather than too large.

Huang Wenzheng believes that to solve the population problem, we must first solve the problem of heavy parenting burden. The government should vigorously support kindergartens or nurseries. In addition, incentives for improving endowment insurance should be established, subsidies should be provided for families who need to raise children, and women’s employment equality should be promoted. He stressed that encouraging birth is appropriate, but under no circumstances should birth be forced, otherwise it will be counterproductive.

Wang Guangzhou said that low birth rate is a form of negative inertia of the population. The solution of the problem is a social system project. Of course, the role of childcare tax reduction is very positive, but the risk and harm of low birth rate can not be solved by simple tax reduction or exemption. of. After the formation of a low-fertility cultural and social mechanism, if you want to completely break it, you need very powerful forces and slow, long-term adjustments.
Substantial changes to religion and culture are out of the question in China. Unless China launches a major fertility push with very big baby bonuses (hit that materialism button) it is unlikely to stop the slide in fertility and certainly won't reverse it.


Rally Extends or Bear Resumes: Emerging Markets

Socionomics Alert: Hot Kitchen Color for 2019 is Black

Kitchens are going dark.

WaPo: 10 home design trends to watch out for in 2019
Parker also suspects that visual social networks such as Houzz and Instagram may have helped people gradually become more comfortable with the idea of experimenting with richer and darker colors. “If you tell somebody, ‘Paint your walls dark blue or black,’ people might imagine the Addams family house,” Parker said. But when they see a photo of the design and how these colors create a warm and serene setting, they are much more likely to have the confidence to try it.


RRR Cut Won't Save Real Estate, Neither Will Extending Mortgages to Age 80

The most important information from this article on the RRR cut and real estate is the first two words of the headline, describing the across the board RRR cut as "rarely seen." The article is about real estate more than the RRR cut, but the big story (that the markets got wrong on Friday) is that China's financial system is under rarely seen stress, aka what happens every time global central bank stimulus runs out.

Also, this year saw at least one bank in Hangzhou offer mortgages to borrowers at 80 years of age. Aside from what that says about housing affordability, the public reaction reflects negative mood, with most denouncing it as creating "two generations of mortgage slaves." The bank describes it as a "relay" loan that is passed from parents to children. Chinese banks limit how long a mortgage can last, with the longest being to age 70. For example, borrowers over age of 40 can not obtain a 30-year mortgage, borrowers over the age of 50 cannot borrow for more than 20 years.

iFeng: 罕见“全面降准”:房价新周期来临?
On January 4, the central bank released news that the People's Bank of China decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, of which 0.5 percentage points were cut on January 15 and January 25, respectively. At the same time, the Medium Term Lending Facility (MLF), which expires in the first quarter of 2019, is not renewed. The central bank said that the RRR cut will release about 1.5 trillion yuan of funds, plus the upcoming medium-term lending facilitation operation and the funds released by the inclusive financial assessment of the inclusive finance, and then consider the medium-term lending facilities due in the first quarter of this year. After the factors that are no longer being renewed, the net long-term capital is about 800 billion yuan.

On the same day, according to the Chinese government network news, Premier Li Keqiang visited the Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank and the Construction Bank's Inclusive Finance Department on January 4, and held a symposium at the Banking Regulatory Commission. The Prime Minister stressed that it is necessary to increase the intensity of macroeconomic policy counter-cyclical adjustments, further adopt measures to reduce taxes and reduce fees, and use comprehensive reduction and targeted reduction tools to support private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.
Here's the relevant part with regards to the headline.
This is a rare "full reduction".

Coincidentally, the news of the loosening of mortgage interest rates in many cities has been continuous in recent times. On January 3, a report from the Hangzhou media sparked heated debates. The report said that a bank in Hangzhou stipulated that the maximum mortgage loan for a mortgage could be 80 years. Not long ago, Hangzhou caught everyone's attention and took the lead in lowering the mortgage interest rate in China. In the following months, many cities across the country such as Shanghai and Shenzhen also experienced loose interest rates on mortgage loans. Does this mean that housing prices will usher in a new cycle?

"Relay loan" is an individual phenomenon

According to media reports, some banks have implemented two generations of parents and children to repay their repayments, stipulating that mortgage loans can be loaned up to 80 years of age. Some commentators said that the implementation of "relay loan" will stimulate the willingness to purchase houses and promote "hot house speculation." If the parents are the main lenders and the children are the common lenders, then the children of some existing houses can move their parents' accounts and borrow the parents to buy the house. They can also enjoy the first suite priority, low down payment, and low The discount on mortgage interest rates is equivalent to circumventing the restriction on the limit and issuing tickets for the incremental population (migration account).

In this regard, the 21st Century Economic Reporter telephoned the staff of the Hangzhou Agricultural Bank Sub-branch (Xindeng Sub-branch, Jiangbin Sub-branch) on January 4. What is embarrassing is that they all said that they did not have this business. For the time being, they did not receive a notice from the superior that the mortgage loan was up to 80 years old. Another Hangzhou Fuyang District Branch said that the branch could handle the relay loan business. The customer manager of the branch told the reporter that the relay loan business is mainly aimed at some young people who have certain pressure to buy a house. Parents can repay the loan together as a co-payer. But there are also parents as the main borrower and children as co-payers. This kind of relay loan, "the interest rate is based on two sets, the period can be based on the age of the child." But she said that this example is particularly rare, the average parent is under 60 years old, and needs to be a quality customer to apply.

The staff of the Shangcheng Sub-branch of Hangzhou Agricultural Bank told reporters that the longest mortgage loan borrower is generally 65 years old, and the ABC can be extended to 70 years old. However, if the relay loan business is handled, it will be different. The main borrowers of the relay lending business are parents, and the co-borrowers are children. The repayment period can be calculated according to the age of the children. The mortgage loan for the relay can be up to 30 years. He also told reporters that the general conditions for handling relay loans are that the main borrowers need to have stable income, good credit and have the qualification to purchase houses, and the common lenders must have the same conditions, that is, stable income, good credit, and certain repayment ability. Banks need to provide the wages of their children and parents to ensure that they have sufficient repayment ability. “It’s more difficult to apply, and this type of business is doing very little,” he said.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center think tank, said that some banks in Hangzhou have adjusted their loan policies, which largely explains that there is room for adjustment in the recent mortgage. Although such policies are the practice of individual banks, However, there is a certain wind vane meaning, indicating that when the real estate market is under downward pressure, market transactions will also affect the content of bank mortgage loans, and the banks themselves will make policy adjustments. This has a certain effect on stimulating market transactions.

Many mortgage interest rate cuts

For Hangzhou to implement "relay loan", Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that this is the beginning of individual banks trying to "drill" policy. "The bank's this lending policy is very obvious to encourage children to use the old people's loan eligibility, enjoy the first suite treatment or still be able to lend. This policy is in fact disguised to cancel the loan restriction policy. The person directly affected by this policy Not much, but it is easy to be used by investment speculative demand. In the past, when the property market policy was loose, the bank was leading every time. If the bank policy in Hangzhou became loose, it would have a great impact on the market."

In fact, before the “relay loan”, some banks in Hangzhou have started to pay interest rates. Since October last year, some banks in Hangzhou have quietly lowered the mortgage interest rate: Hangzhou Industrial and Commercial Bank, CITIC Bank, etc. took the lead in lowering the mortgage interest rate, stipulating that the first home loan interest rate is 10% higher than the benchmark interest rate, and the second suite is up 15%. Previously, according to media reports, Hangzhou's first home loan interest rate remained at 15%-20% overall. Among them, the four major banks basically floated 15%, the shareholding system and the city commercial banks were relatively high, and some branches had risen by 30% and 40%. In addition, the bank's lending rate has also improved significantly.

Not only Hangzhou, but other major cities in the first-tier cities also showed signs of loose interest rates on mortgage loans. The interest rates of many banks in Shenzhen have also been lowered. Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Beijing, Citibank's first home loan interest rate rose 10%, the interest rate was 5.39%. Earlier media reports showed that the interest rates of the first-home suites in Shenzhen's four major banks were up 15%, and only a few small banks had loose interest rates.

Some banks in Shanghai will receive a 5% discount on the first set of minimum interest rates. As of January 3, 2019, the latest monitoring data of the 360 ​​Data Research Institute showed that many banks in Shanghai lowered the interest rate of the first home loan. The first set of average interest rates fell to 5.09%, down from the 5.19% monitoring data in early December 2018. Percentage points.

The reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald telephoned the staff of the Huangpu District Sub-branch of Shanghai China Merchants Bank. He told reporters that the current first-home loan interest rate can be given a discount of 5%, that is, the benchmark interest rate (4.9%) is 5% off, or 4.655. %, this discount will not change in the short term. He said that Shanghai's first home loan interest rate is still relatively large compared to other cities. "But not everyone can apply for it. Generally only a small number of quality customers can enjoy this offer."

The staff of the China Construction Bank Pudong New Area Branch said that the first home loan interest rate is also a 5% discount, and will continue for some time. He said that Shanghai mortgage interest rates are still relatively stable, and no news has been received indicating that there will be changes. "If you have a first-hand house, some banks designated by the developer will have discounts. Other banks will also have a discount through specialized agencies," he told reporters.

According to the statistics of the 360 ​​Big Data Research Institute, the first set of minimum interest rates for five banks in Shanghai will be offered a 5% discount, except for ICBC, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank. In addition to the 50% interest rate, five banks including Jiangsu Bank, China CITIC Bank, China Merchants Bank, Bank of Communications, and Shanghai Rural Merchants are currently performing a 5% discount rate. The first set of interest rates averaged the first drop in 2019. According to previous media reports, there are still a number of banks in Shanghai such as Shanghai Pudong, China Everbright, Hang Seng, and Woori, which have lowered the interest rate of the first home loan to varying degrees, from the previous highest 30% increase to 20%.

Compared with other cities, Beijing is slightly “cool”. The staff of China Merchants Bank Beijing Branch said that since May 2018, the first suite interest rate of China Merchants Bank has risen by 10%, and the interest rate of the second home loan has risen by 20%. “The first home mortgage rate is 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate, which is unified by the banks in Beijing. But it depends on the intermediary agencies.”

The branch staff of China Construction Bank's Changping District also said that the first-home loan interest rate was 10% higher than the benchmark interest rate, and the second-home loan interest rate was basically 1.2 times the benchmark interest rate, which was basically unchanged from the previous months. “If the customer has good qualifications and good credit, there may be a discount on the mortgage interest rate.”

The staff of the Xicheng Sub-branch of Minsheng Bank told the reporter that before the Minsheng Bank was in a tight position, the interest rate of the first-home loan was higher than that of the average bank, which was 20% higher, but now it has been lowered to 15%. "As far as I know, this is a minority (down), and most banks are still stable at 10%."

The property market will welcome the new cycle?

The overall RRR cut and the interest rate of bank mortgages in many places have fallen. Does this mean that the property market will pick up soon in 2019, and house prices will bottom out?

In this regard, Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo, believes that the central bank will carry out the RRR cut in the first year of the year, and the two RRR cuts are only 10 days apart. At the same time, it is announced that it shows the easing of the monetary credit environment and the urgent need to support the real economy. . For the capital-intensive real estate industry, the overall RRR cut, and the flow of funds is not clearly defined, and the liquidity is loose, which will bring significant benefits to the real estate industry that is eager for capital. First of all, for housing enterprises, the difficulty of obtaining bank loan support will be greatly reduced, the state of tight cash flow of housing enterprises will be improved, and financing costs are also expected to be lowered. In particular, state-owned enterprises, central enterprises, and the top 30 headed enterprises in the country will benefit from it. The looseness of housing funds will help reduce the phenomenon of land flow that has appeared frequently in the country. The land market in first- and second-tier cities will gradually heat up. Secondly, for buyers, the bank’s funds are abundant and new. With the liberalization of the credit line for one year, the threshold for mortgage loans will also be loose. After the general increase of 10%-15% of the mortgage interest rate in the country, the floating part will gradually shrink, and there may even be a return to the benchmark interest rate. The actual purchase cost of home buyers will also be reduced.

However, Guo Yi believes that this will not cause a rapid upward pull on the demand for home purchases. The reason is that the core factor that restricts the consumption of home purchases is the excessive down payment ratio, not the mortgage interest rate. Only the appropriate reduction of the down payment ratio will help to stimulate the purchase of houses. The release of demand.

Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of the Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the RRR cut will help increase the overall social financing. However, due to the targeted support and the real estate industry is not supported, there is no direct positive impact on the property market and housing prices. However, it still has indirect positive effects. The rivers are much more watery, and some of the water, either light or dark, will flow into the small river of real estate. Especially for personal loans, for banks, they are high-quality assets. After the bank’s loanable amount increases, under the pressure of heavy lending, and at the same time worry about the risk of bad debts of small and micro enterprises, then some commercial banks will inevitably Increase the lending of personal mortgage loans, lower the loan threshold, and the mortgage interest rate will stabilize slightly in 2019, which will help the buyers to release their demand, thereby alleviating the pressure of falling house prices.

"But we must realize that the small relaxation of personal housing loans can not immediately promote the rebound of housing prices. In 2019, the main trend of housing prices in major cities in the country will not change. In empirical evidence, there are already 2018 Four times the RRR cut, but most house prices have turned inflection points in September 2018, and they are still continuing to fall." Yang Hongxu believes.

JRJ: “房贷可还到80岁”引争议 网友:要考虑潜在风险
Anyone who bought a house knows that the mortgage loan is generally for 30 years. If it is near retirement or a retired elderly person, the mortgage loan period will be greatly reduced, and even the mortgage business cannot be handled.

  But now, some banks have broken this rule and want to extend mortgage slavery to the end of life.

  Home mortgage loans can be loaned up to 80 years
  On January 3, the Qianjiang Evening News issued a report saying that a bank in Hangzhou recently quietly adjusted its mortgage policy, stipulating that mortgage loans can be loaned up to 80 years old, breaking the highest age record of lenders.

...According to the Qianjiang Evening News report, all branches of the Agricultural Bank of Hangzhou have been notified to start implementing the policy. Before the ABC's regulations on mortgages, the maximum loan can be 70 years old, and the adjustment was extended by 10 years.

  According to the explanation of the Agricultural Bank, this is a “relay loan” product. As the name suggests, it is the relay of two generations of parents and children. The bank will strictly review the qualifications of the loan applicants, and also require the designated lender's children to be co-payers. The lender and the co-payer must have repayment ability. Once the lender loses the ability to repay, the child has to bear the corresponding repayment obligation. In general, very good customers can be approved. In this way, the risk of the elderly having limited income, increasing the chance of getting sick with age, and reducing the repayment ability year by year is avoided.

  According to the Qianjiang Evening News report, the maximum loan period for ABC's “relay loan” is 30 years. According to the explanation of the other party, if the loan is started at the age of 50, it is just 80 years old.

  Some bankers told Union Finance (unnews.com.cn) that relay lending has already existed in the banking industry . What is “relay loan”?

  Baidu Encyclopedia's explanation is that a personal housing relay loan refers to the ownership of the purchased house by the parents or an adult child (or the child and their spouse) or the parents and children. The parents or one party and the child are the co-borrowers. Buy housing credit products for housing .
Some believe this is a move designed to qualify more people for lending amid a housing slowdown:
Some insiders believe that compared with the interest rate adjustment of mortgage loans, this single incident affects a small number of people and does not have the meaning of a policy vane. Despite this, with the overall slowdown in the property market in Hangzhou, the volume of mortgage business declined, and the downward trend in interest rates is the general trend.

  Some bankers also said that relaxing the mortgage period is equivalent to qualifying for a house in disguise, but if the regulator is concerned about this matter, it is likely to be suspended. Whether it is a signal of loose mortgages, it is hard to say.

  There is a conjecture: banks generally have a maximum loan period of 70 years old, ICBC has relaxed to 75 years old, and then ABC has relaxed to 80 years old. Will there be any other banks to follow up, relax to 85 years old, then 90 years old, 95 years old?

Chinese Analysts: RRR Cut Isn't Loosening

The PBoC will slash the RRR by 1 percent in January to alleviate tightening pressure, not to shift into a loosening stance. Two analyst reports discuss this reality, one focused on A-share performance and the other on the macro economy.

iFeng: 海通证券:降准或刺激市场有小的短反弹 但持续性堪忧
On January 4, the central bank announced that it decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point. On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.1%. We believe that the RRR cut or stimulus market has a small short rebound, but the sustainability is worrying. The market rhythm of 2019 depends on the comparison of policy relaxation and the fundamental strength of the downside, and it is not yet the best time to swing.
Haitong Securities analyst also sees 2019 as similar to 2010 and 2016, a year of volatility (rhythm year) for A-shares.
Rhythm year: 2010, 2016. The distinctive feature of the rhythm year is the increase in market volatility. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -14.3% in 2010, but the high and low points in the year reached 42.5%. In 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -12.3%. 34.1%. Under the rhythm market, the overall performance and market deviation of the fund is weaker than the structural year and stronger than the trend year. For example, the 2010 Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 is up or down -12.5%. The VS partial-share hybrid fund has an average return of 3.9% in the same year, 2016-11.3% vs. -14.0%. The rhythm year requires a high demand for the fund manager's timing ability. In the rebound phase, the decisive warehousing increases the profit, and when the retreat falls, the position is reduced in time to reduce the loss. For example, in 2010, the top 10 partial-share hybrid funds will fall in the April-June period. 82.36% (10Q1) is slightly lower than the overall average of 82.41%, while the rebound position of 84.0% (10Q3) in July-November is slightly higher than the overall average of 83.7%. In addition, due to the superior performance of small and medium-sized boards in 2010, structural factors also have a greater impact on fund performance. In 2016, the top 10 partial-share hybrid funds had a 77.1% (15Q4) stock position in January, which was significantly lower than the overall average of 82.7%. In the second half of the year, the rebound position was 89.5% (16Q4), which was significantly higher than the overall average of 81.4%.
Guangfa agrees there is no loosening of PBoC policy.

iFeng: 广发策略:全面降准并非货币政策转向“大水漫灌”式宽松
We released the report on the National Day last year, "Water Poverty, Hou Jiayin - A Shares Fourth Quarter Strategic Outlook", which first proposed that the global liquidity inflection point will have a greater impact on A shares. “Water deficiencies” US stocks, A-shares, risky currencies, and commodities have experienced “high volatility” declines. In essence, investor differences under the global liquidity turning point have been magnified. In the historical global liquidity crisis, there is often a synergistic decline in the high volatility of risk assets, such as the 08 subprime mortgage crisis and the 11 Euro debt crisis. This round can be regarded as a “deflationary crisis”.

● The first condition in spring is: good water, good luck, global risk-on

Our last week’s weekly report reminded us that the first condition of the 19-year spring start-up “risk of important incidents has risen” has emerged. Fed Chairman Powell’s “no hesitation when necessary to adjust the contraction” on the 4th, compared with the FOMC meeting in December, “will still maintain the pace of shrinking” is obviously “pig the pigeon”, which means that the global liquidity tightening is expected to have marginal easing, and this is really buzzing. The trigger for the opening of the A-share spring. Analogy At the beginning of 12, the European Central Bank LTRO resolved the global liquidity crisis, and A-shares turned sharply to trigger the spring stir.

● The second condition of spring turmoil is also ripe: expectations for credit expansion improve

Premier Li Keqiang and Liu He, the deputy prime minister in charge of financial work, and Yi Gang, the central bank governor, visited the bank. The Chinese leaders inspected the bank and released a unified signal that the decision-making layer actively promoted the wide-currency-to-wide credit transmission. Whether credit expansion can be effective in the short term, The market's previous cautious view of credit expansion will have marginal loosening, which is the second important factor that constitutes spring incitement.

● Different from some views: comprehensive RRR reduction is not a change in monetary policy to “big flood irrigation”

On the 4th, the government bond futures fell and the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, indicating that the important market dominated by professional investors did not regard this comprehensive RRR cut as a signal that the monetary policy turned to “big flood irrigation”. Therefore, this comprehensive RRR cut is not the core factor for opening the spring turmoil. It is also not advisable to refer to the experience of whether the current round of spring turmoil is open after the overall downgrade in history. If the next short-term interest rate is lower than the previous stage, it can be seen as a looser signal to the monetary policy. If there is a further expansion of the current spring space, this is equivalent to instigating an option in the spring.

● 2+1 (two facts, one option) driven by the spring of the factor

The spring spurs driven by 2+1 (two facts, one option) are officially opened, and the marginal mitigation of global liquidity inflection points is the core driver. The improvement of risk appetite at home and abroad and the expected improvement of social welfare have helped the rebound of most stocks, so we judge that it is general. Directly benefiting from the financial sector, as well as the previous oversold “water-poor” suffered from liquidity discounts, will benefit more. In the spring, we will give priority to recommendations: finance (brokers, insurance, banks) and growth stocks (media, computers). The theme investment focuses on regional coordination (Xiong, Xinjiang). Whether the social welfare and credit exceed expectations is a follow-up indicator to observe whether further expansion after the establishment of this spring's instigation.

Rents Fall in Shanghai Financial District, Private Lending Surges Amid Credit Crunch

Caijing: 上海:陆家嘴写字楼一年两轮降价
According to some building owners, building investment and property managers, the occupancy rate of some office buildings in Shanghai Lujiazui area was over 90% at the beginning of 2018, but the occupancy rate has dropped to about 80% since the third quarter, with a drop of more than 10%. The watershed mainly appears. From August to September 2018.

Generally speaking, it is normal for commercial office buildings in large cities such as Hangzhou and Nanjing to remain below 10%. However, the occupancy rate has dropped by 10% in the first half of last year, resulting in a vacancy rate of 20% or more. More is not so normal. Generally speaking, due to the large number of holidays at the beginning of the year and the end of the year, the customer's rent retreat mostly occurs in the second and third quarters of each year, but there are some in and out, and the appropriate amount of small vacancy is normal.

A Taiwan-funded real estate agent told the Securities Times reporter that Shanghai’s financial institutions, like some of Beijing’s financial institutions, have retreated, but the name of the specific institution is not disclosed. The source said that some companies have reduced one original floor to half. If the industry continues to be sluggish, this half of the floor may not be there after the Spring Festival.
Supply may finally exceed demand:
The person said that there are many reasons for the company to withdraw the rent: some of them are shrinking their own business, in order to reduce costs, they no longer work in Lujiazui. In addition, there are a number of emerging industrial parks in Shanghai, and the rent and tax incentives are more attractive. For small and medium-sized enterprises, some of them will be relocated in the past.

The Securities Times reporter had previously learned that in order to encourage the support of high-tech enterprises to settle in, Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park recently released a lot of office buildings for sale, the price is not high. In addition, Shanghai Hongkou, Jiading and other districts also launched entrepreneurial incentives for different types of technology companies, in addition to talent and tax-related policies, including office space leasing and sales.
P2P lenders are among the firms clearing out of the Lujiazui area:
The Zhongrong International Shopping Mall (now 1088 Square) opposite Shanghai's No. 1 Yaohan is in a prime location, roughly the transition zone between the large residential area in the south and the Lujiazui Financial City, close to the exit of Shanghai Rail Transit Line 9. When the Securities Times reporter visited the surrounding merchants, he was informed that the building was completed in 2004, initially in the department store industry, and later changed to a large electrical appliance store, witnessing the huge impact of Internet e-commerce on the retail industry. Relevant property consultants told reporters that before and after 2015, the occupancy rate of the building malls fell to around 70%. In 2016, the building was repositioned in education and training. Today, the occupancy rate of such institutions has exceeded half.

The Securities Times reporter learned that when the business center model was sought after in the previous two years, the unit price of the floor of the building above 6 floors has reached 8 yuan / square meter / day or more. At that time, the rent of the shopping mall below is only 4 to 5 yuan / square. M/day or so. Most of the above customers are small Internet finance P2P organizations, which can be checked in, but they often see rights defenders. After the management took over the rectification, the rents here began to go down. On the contrary, the rents of the education and training institutions in the malls began to rise. "New Oriental is my first customer here. Now that the 5-year contract is coming, I will definitely renew it next year," said the insider of the building.
Occupancy is declining along with rates:
A domestic real estate agent revealed that since 2018, the market has had a relatively large impact on financial institutions. “From the perspective of office investment, as long as it is a company like Internet finance, we may not accept it (it is leased). For example, he said that some P2P companies are suspected of fraud, which will lead to the rights of investors. The relevant business premises will be sealed up by law enforcement agencies, which is too risky for the owners. “There are only “small owners” or “two landlords” who are willing to do business in this type of business, and the rent will definitely be higher than the market,” he said.

According to the situation of many interviewees, office rents in the region have seen two rounds of price cuts since 2018. Generally speaking, the owners will raise the rents at the end of the previous year. However, the renting and selling situation at the beginning of 2018 is very unsatisfactory. Many owners have cut prices at the beginning of the year, and some even lower than the end of the previous year. In the third quarter, the market remained sluggish, and some buildings made a second round of price cuts. Despite this, the occupancy rate of office buildings near Shangcheng Road and Zhangyang Road is still declining.
What business is growing in the area? Private lending.
In the course of the interview, the reporter obtained another important message: According to a person familiar with the matter, a small licensed loan company in Shanghai has soared from more than 20 people to more than 100 in just three months. The office area has also increased from a few hundred square meters to thousands of square meters. This may indicate that the current domestic bank financing channels are still narrow, and the capital needs of small and medium-sized and small and micro enterprises are not fully met, thus promoting the rapid development of “counter-trading” of private lending. Subsequently, the reporter asked the name of the small loan company, but the respondent refused to rely on too sensitive, only revealed that the small loan company is located in Zhangjiang, Shanghai.
That answers the question: China's SMEs Cannot Obtain Low Cost Credit, Can Li Keqiang Finally Save Them?


PBoC Wizards Sell RRR Cut, USDCNY Through 7.00 This Year

China suffers annual cash crunches around the time of Spring Festival because China is still a heavily cash economy and the holiday is similar to Christmas in the amount of spending. When liquidity is already tight, it has caused noticeable spikes in SHIBOR. The central bank usually met the demand with monetary emissions.

Not so this year. Instead, the PBoC announced a 1 percent cut to the reserve requirement ratio. It is probably true that the RRR cut will also cover Spring Festival liquidity needs, but the PBoC wizards are trying to sell you on it because they don't want you looking at the weakening economy.

RRR cuts in the recent past have been bad news. The RRR cut in January 2018 was bad news for emerging markets. The second cut in April 2018 was really bad news because the EM collapse and U.S. dollar rally can be pinpointed to China's surprise announcement. China cut another 1 percent in October 2018 and while I was wrong in expecting USDCNY to push towards 7.00 and a breakout, it wasn't a great time for global financial markets. Now China has cut the RRR by 1 percent again.

Global markets responded positively to the news. ZH: China Announces RRR Cut Plans To Cover Lunar New Year Liquidity As the ZeroHedge article points out, it is not a positive sign for the economy.

Bear market psychology is in effect with wild swings in sentiment and asset prices. Pinning the rally today on China's RRR move is close to impossible, but if today's rally was based on the cut, then I would absolutely fade it 200 percent.

Trade of the Year

The key price for global markets remains the U.S. dollar exchange rate. I still expect the dollar will move higher. The key exchange rate in a dollar bull market is USDCNY. Given the tight credit conditions in China, clear aversion to deflation and ability to force credit growth, I expect USDCNY 7.00 falls this year. A breakout will have major implications for the global economy and emerging markets.

More over, time is up. The window for the U.S. dollar bull market ending begins in 2019 and ends in 2020. If USDCNY is going through 7, it is going through this year. Otherwise, it isn't going through at all because the global economy is already (at the higher stages of production) turning the ship around.


Economy Will Turn Ugly Quickly

There was a strong ADP jobs number for December, credit growth is stable to rising. On the other side, there's no dip in credit risk yet. Jobless claims hit 231,000 last week which if it holds over 4-weeks, will end the downtrend in claims. The PPI is forming a possible head-and-shoulders that would have a target more than 25 percent below current prices. The PPI tumbled 15 percent in 2008. If the economy weakens from here, indicators could flip quickly or extend much further into bearish territory.