Chinese shares pummeled in Hong Kong

Investors are pricing in a much slower Chinese economy as disappointing economic numbers come in and today was the worst one-day decline in the past three months. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index tracks H-shares in Hong Kong. Today, the HSCE was knocked for a 3.4% loss and was down as much as 3.7% late in the day. Beijing Capital International Airport (0694) was hit for a 7.1% loss. Jianxi Copper (0358) fell 6.0%; Sinofert (0297) lost 5.9%; China Minsheng Bank (1988) declined 6.2%; Sands China (1928) slid 4.9%; CITIC (6030) tumbled 5.7%; and Chow Tai Fook (1929) plunged 9.6%.

In the real estate sector, Sino-Ocean (3377) sank 7.5%; Guangzhou R&F (2777) fell 6.6%; China Resources Land (1109) declined 6.1%; SOHO China (0410) lost 4.1%. On the Mainland, Vanke (000002.SZ) fell 3.4%, well ahead of the 1.2% drop in the Shanghai Composite.

16 major listed real estate firms see sales drop in Janaury; Beijing more pessimistic

Sales are down almost across the board, with Vanke seeing declines in both total area and value. 16家上市房企业绩普降 1月销售同比降52.8%

As the graph shows, Vanke (far left) saw a 40% decline in sales, but they also saw area sold decline 28%. Most firms saw similar results, with sales area down less than value, which means the higher end developments were seeing better results.

Key data from the article: construction may be down 20% to 30% and developers may halt land purchases. This is bad news for employment, the economy, and local government finances.

An English article with a look at sales by firm. Major Chinese developers' January 2012 sales

China Vanke (000002.SZ) -39%; Evergrande Real Estate (3333.HK) -77%; China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK) -50%; Longfor Properties (0960.HK) -72%; Shimao Property Holdings (0813.HK) -70%; Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777.HK) -57%.

Below is a six-month chart of the above shares, plus Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF (TAO). The news has gotten steadily worse, but investors sold ahead of the shift. In the past few weeks, shares have rallied along with everything else in the global financial markets.

While the markets are at least enjoying a reactive bounce, the mood on the ground is more intense pessimism. 北京楼市悲观预期加重 买卖双方博弈升级

In Beijing, buyers now expect price declines and this psychological change has shifted the market from one of buyers chasing higher prices, to gamesmanship. The article repeats the current common wisdom: a drop of 10-15% in the first half of the year followed by stabilization in the second half. Individual properties could see steeper drops. The article discusses how Beijing has a more complex situation because the government must deal with many non-Beijing residents trying to buy homes. The government has policies designed to slow population growth and make it harder for those without a Beijing hukou to buy homes.