It seems like no matter which way the West goes, Turkey finds itself in conflict. I still expect it will eventually be expelled or voluntarily leave Western organizations such as NATO.
So, what to do about these toxic delays being forced by Hungary and Turkey? The answer is sadly simple -- play the same game Putin's been playing for years. When you can't win by traditional rules, go around them.
In this case, do carve-outs. Make Orban and Erdogan irrelevant. All 26 other EU members should simply implement the oil embargo. And NATO should simply pave the way for Sweden and Finland's accession.
What's the worst Hungary or Turkey could do -- sue? Pull out? There was a lot of thought given toward banishing Turkey from NATO anyway -- especially after Erdogan bought Russian S-400 air defense systems from Russia three years ago.
Perhaps now is precisely the moment simply to stand up to these lone strongmen who have managed to burrow their way deeply into democratic institutions.
All of which is to say, I can see the Turkey ETF (TUR) hitting single digits solely through currency depreciation and financial crisis. There's enough fuel there for it. However, geopolitical developments concern because they are likely to deteriorate along with the economy. If the chart is correct, economics and politics are going to get much worse for Turkey in the months ahead. Of course, the chart might reverse and the pattern may break, making a short of TUR a bad trade and a forecast of instability a wrong one. If it doesn't, Turkey may quickly become the new center of attention in the Middle East.
It took longer than I expected. The deterioration was slower, and then now it is going all at once. The credit bubble kept expanding, Erdogan's accumulation of power didn't create extreme damage right away. The Trump administration did not reorient foreign policy in the Middle East and the EU ruling class enabled the migration crisis instead of confronting it, both of which delayed a potential break with Turkey.
Back then I was look at this topping pattern.
I said the target was the single digits. The chart hasn't made it that far yet, but support right now is around $16.50 and below that there is the 2008 low around $13 per share.
The best way to play Turkey's collapse was not the stock market, but the currency:
Anxious Turks struggled to keep up with a bewildering collapse in their currency and the main opposition party leader said the country was experiencing its darkest "catastrophe" as the lira slumped 15% on Tuesday against the dollar.
Tuesday's meltdown follows weeks of steep falls in the lira which have already driven up prices, leaving ordinary Turks reconsidering everything from their holiday plans to weekly grocery shopping.
"There has not been such a catastrophe in the history of the Republic," said Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the opposition Republican People's Party, blaming the currency freefall on President Tayyip Erdogan who has led the country since 2003.
"At this point, you are a fundamental national security problem for the Republic of Turkey," Kilicdaroglu said.
The collapse in Turkey's currency is a geopolitical problem. As the largest economy in the Middle East with ties to European banks, and as a key player in regional security, the fallout from the collapsing lira hasn't really hit the region yet. But it will.
Shares in Spain's BBVA (BBVA.MC) fell 1.2%, to a two-month low, with the bank seen as the most exposed to Turkey.
BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) of France and Dutch bank ING Groep (INGA.AS) also do business in Turkey and may be hit by a slump in its currency. Italy's UniCredit (CRDI.MI) is in the process of exiting the country.
Spanish banks have by far the largest loan exposure to Turkey among Western lenders at nearly $63 billion, followed by banks in France, Germany, Britain, United States, Japan and Italy, data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows.
Europe has its own problems besides Turkey. Here's a thinly traded ETF of European financials. It looks ready for another vertical move lower.
I still believe Turkey will eventually be kicked out of or leave the EU and NATO, should NATO continue to exist at all. The exit by European banks is one piece of a big puzzle that will eventually erode support for Turkey on the continent. If I am wrong, perhaps there are enough Kemalists left who will turn the country back towards the West. As the country destabilizes, prediction become more difficult because the probability of outlier events rises.
For global markets, the collapse of the lira seems far away because it doesn't immediately impact on global markets. However, the question must be asked: why now? Turkey has been doing the same things for years, why did the lira collapse now? Perhaps it is global pressures that pushed Turkey over the edge again. Central planning looks good when times are good. Global and even local macroeconomic forces can overcome bad policy for years on end. Every commodity cycle, there are examples of a resource boom overcoming all but the worst governments. When the positive external forces reverse, then the reality of the underlying economic destruction is revealed all at once. It is no different with Madoff and Enron. As long as the prices that mattered were rising, no one was the wiser. Only a few prescient analysts who dug into the numbers were aware of the real weakness.
Let's look to the past for Turkey. The last time the Turkish lira experienced a collapse similar to the current one was in 2018. On the chart above, USDTRY climbs into the rainbow for the first time. The vertical move was a four- or five-month affair depending on where you mark the start of the move. The lira bottomed out (USDTRY topped in the chart) in August 2018. Back then the Chinese economy was slowing, the global economy was slowing, the Federal Reserve was tightening with QT, the U.S. dollar was rising and then global markets began selling off in late September. Here is the euro to give evidence of the stronger dollar:
It's long been a Turkish 'red line' for which all the country's recent modern leaders have reacted fiercely at the mere suggestion, and which only thirty countries in the world officially acknowledge. It's being widely reported that President Joe Biden is preparing to declare the formal US recognition of the Armenian genocide, which was the mass systematic killing of over one million Armenians in Asia Minor from 1915-1917 at the end of the Ottoman Empire. Hundreds of thousands of Greek and Assyrian Christians were also slaughtered in the name of achieving 'Turkification'.
According to CNN on Thursday, "Two people familiar with the decision said the President was expected to make the declaration as part of an official statement on Remembrance Day, which falls on Saturday. Both said it was possible he would change his mind before then, and issue a statement merely recognizing the event without describing it as genocide."
Turkey is a great example of one of the main themes of this blog, that beng social mood and how negative mood exposes all the faultlines between peoples. The United States is entering a low level race war as diversity's problems are exposed. Turkey and the West have multiple fault lines ranging from religion to geopolitical goals. Kemalist Turkey made sense as a U.S. ally against the Soviet Union. Islamizing Turkey doesn't make much sense as an ally against radical Islamd, particularly when it ends up supporting ISIS. Of course, depending on who is in power in the U.S., supoprting ISIS might be seen as a good thing. President Trump seemed to flirt with the idea of siding with Russia and Assad against terrorists though, and without the false Russiagate narrative and the fake chemical attack blamed on Assad, it's possible Trump would have radically altered U.S. foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia and the Middle East at least on one problem. He would not have done too much given his support for Israel and the latter's support for radical Islamic groups that are "the enemy of my enemy."
Additionally, Turkey has also angered the U.S. by buying Russian weapons systems. It seems like no matter which way the West goes, Turkey finds itself in conflict. I still expect it will eventually be expelled or voluntarily leave Western organizations such as NATO. Economic troubles, including the fallout from rapid monetary expansion, has battered the currency. Turkey's revolving door of central bank chiefs whipsaws markets. Flight from the Turkish lira has led it to take action against Bitcoin. It doesn't say that is the reason, nor did China when it banned cyrptocurency exchanges amid downward pressure on the yuan and worries over capital flight.
As for the chart, the Turkey ETF emains in a downtend. When viewed in context with USDTRY, it takes on a bearish aura.
Several years ago I highlighted Turkey as a potential geopolitical hotspot because its long-term chart showed potential for an extreme decline. See: Geopolitical Forecasting Through Technical Analysis: Is Turkey About to Destabilize the Middle East?. Since then things have proceeded in that direction. The currency has done most of the work in terms of financial damage, while the government has ratcheded up tension with its neighbors, the EU, Russia and the USA.
According to the Boycott-Turkey.org and Boycott-Turkey.net campaign (websites hijacked – this is a partial mirror site), “probably one of the most powerful weapons individuals have to effect political change is their consumer purchasing power.”
For years, Turkey has injected itself, often militarily, into the sovereign affairs of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Greece, Cyprus, India, and now, Armenia and Artsakh. On October 2, reports emerged that Turkey is using NATO and American facilities to attack Armenia and Artsakh. Since NATO is unable or unwilling to rein in this rogue nation that many consider to be the single greatest threat to global security, public boycotts are increasingly gaining favor.
Against the backdrop of war, public disapproval for Turkish-made goods has intensified in Armenia again. Armenians recognize that Turkey’s involvement in this war will allow it to complete the Armenian Genocide.
The Republic of Armenia announced on October 1 that its supermarkets will no longer carry Turkish products. Merchants and importers are choosing other trade partners.
Since the renewed attacks on Armenia, communities in the Armenian Diaspora have also seen a resurgence in Turkish products and services boycotts.
...At the end of September, Saudi Arabia announced a ban on all Turkish goods. The Saudi Kingdom has been at loggerheads with Turkey over the contested murder of exiled Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the status of the Qatar peninsula.
According to the Turkish newspaper Dunya, the Saudi government has ordered individual businesses not to trade with Turkish companies or buy any products made in Turkey, and has imposed fines on companies that do not comply.
A Turkish boycott campaign in also in effect in Egypt. In January of this year, MP Ismail Nasr El-Din called on the government to impose a boycott of Turkish products, services and tourism “in response to the blatant transgressions by the Turkish government in the region, and its attempts to plunder the wealth of the Middle East, spread chaos, and destabilize the Middle East.” MP Omar Sumaida, head of the Congress Party, said “we launched a campaign to boycott Turkish products, and our party has developed plans to educate citizens to boycott Turkish products in all offices affiliated with the party across the country.” As early as 2013, a number of Egyptian TV channels stopped airing Turkish soap operas and dramas, to protest Turkish intervention in the Middle East.
These popular boycotts intensify the existing Arab League boycott. Many Arab countries cannot afford the high cost of retaliating militarily to Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria, and so are opting for economic sanctions as defense. “An Arab boycott of Turkish products would significantly hurt Ankara’s economy. Turkish exports to the Arab world total more than $30 billion annually, representing 18.3% of its overall exports, according to the trade data website, Trade Map.
There are layers to geopolitics that prevent cooperation between countries with similar interests, but sometimes interests align when everyone decides that a given regime's time is up. I don't know if that is the case with Turkey, but clearly it is boxing itself into an ever smaller geopolitical corner. I do not think a war is coming, but it is possible that various nations make these boycotts a semi-permanent policy. Anti-Turkish interests in the European Union and the United States, including the Armenian diaspora, will ramp up their activities. If these find footing, anti-Erdogan propaganda will increase from parties who favor Turkey.
Turkey sits at a nexus between Russia, the West and Islam. This is an asset when regional powers and neigboring countries aren't aligned because any nation desiring stability will avoid upsetting the balance. When all your neighbors and the great powers are on a similar page however...that's when semi-permanent economic boycotts can turn a nation into a pariah state.
There is no resistance for USDTRY. TUR is off its $17.60 low, but the chart still looks bearish here. How do you solve a problem like Erdogan? His regime has managed the currency poorly. Outside interests don't need to push the Turkish lira over the edge, it's already falling. Enemies don't need to apply pressure, at this point they only need not offer support when the time comes.
— The Turkish defense ministry said two of its soldiers were killed and five were wounded in Syrian government airstrikes in Idlib, bringing Turkish military fatalities in the region to 15 this month. It said more than 50 Syrian soldiers were killed in retaliation.
— Russia for the first time publicly accused Turkey of supporting terrorist fighters in Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry said Turkey provided artillery support to the militants, wounding four Syrian soldiers.
— Russian warplanes attacked the militants who had burst through government positions in two areas of Idlib, allowing the Syrian army to repel them, the Russian ministry said. Turkey said Syrian planes had carried out the airstrikes.
— Nearly 1 million people — most of them women and children — have fled the fighting to seek sanctuary in the border area. Russia’s military said Friday there is no photographic proof of the refugees’ existence.
Turkey's Communications Director Fahrettin Altun said the soldiers - who were in Idlib to "establish peace and manage humanitarian aid operations" - were killed by "an attack carried out by the [Syrian] regime".
Earlier this month, 13 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syrian attacks, prompting Erdogan to say Turkey will attack Syrian forces "anywhere" in Syria if another soldier was hurt.
In a statement, the defence ministry said five tanks, two armoured personnel carriers, two armoured trucks and one howitzer were also destroyed in retaliation.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said at least 11 pro-government fighters and 14 on the pro-Turkey side were killed along with the two Turkish troops.
Russia - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's main ally - accused Turkey on Thursday of providing artillery support to rebels fighting Syrian government forces, and said fighters briefly broke through government defences in Idlib, Russian news agencies reported.
I identified Turkey as a potential geopolitical hotspot given a bearish chart pattern several years ago. Things have not been going well for Turkey or its currency in the interim. I speculated that a completion of the bearish pattern would point to extreme events, either currency collapse or possibly Turkey being ejected from NATO. The latter is now openly discussed in Washington, DC.
Since the end of 2008, U.S. M2 increased 77 percent. Chinese M2 increased 300 percent. Only Turkey and Russia are in the ballpark and both of those currencies experienced major declines over the past several years.
Nationalism is a threat to the European Union as long as the European Union is anti-nationalist. Nationalists only need to win in one country to exit the EU or the euro, or threaten an exit that makes the functioning of the EU more difficult. That changes if nationalists take over however, at which point they can change the rules to make the EU more amenable to its component nations.
Either outcome fits with Socionomic theory. Europe will either fight itself or it will fight outsiders.
"The news is that we are broadening the community, the family. We are working for a new European dream today. For many Europeans, the EU (European Union) is a nightmare," Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini told reporters following a meeting of Europe's far-right party leaders met in Milan on Monday. Salvini is spearheading the alliance, called "Towards a Europe of Common Sense," which he says he hopes will "win and change Europe."
...The group's top priorities are a halt to all clandestine migration, restoring political sovereignty to EU nations, protecting "European culture," and stronger European borders - while the #1 threat to Europe is Islamic extremism.
"As interior minister for 10 months, the No. 1 risk in Italy and Europe is Islamic extremism, Islamic fanaticism, Islamic terrorism," said Salvini. "There are extreme-right and extreme-left minorities in Italy and in Europe, (but) they fortunately are controlled and of limited numbers."
... If they win a majority in the EU elections, the group would cancel for good the process of inviting Turkey to become a member of the European Union - a process which has been stalled for years.
If you're into black comedies, a Brexit betrayal takes on a whole extra level of funny if Remainers end up trapped in a union that is far more nationalist than a post-Breixt UK.
If socionomic theory has some validity and technical analysis has some validity, then one can presumably spot potential geopolitical shifts by looking at major assets such as currencies and national stock markets. iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) gives exposure to both Turkey and by extension, the Turkish lira. Back in 2015, TUR sported a major head-and-shoulders pattern indicating a target in the single digits from its then current price of $37 per share. Geopolitical and domestic political events deteriorated. President Erdogan has been turning the country into an Islamic state and Islamic states tend to underperform economically. Secular Turkey was a Middle East standout because of its economic success without oil. Islamic Turkey? Maybe yes, but the risks were and are increasing. Erdogan also consolidated power. Tensions with Greece escalated. Tensions with NATO escalated. Tensions with Russia escalated. President Trump, ISIS, possible detente with Russia (din't happen), NATO reform, nationalism rising in Europe, it all pointed and most still points in a negative direction for Turkey.
Turkey would bottom in 2016 and then rally withe emerging markets into the January 2018 global top. It then went on to lose more than 50 percent into a July 2018 low. That uptrend is broken and as of pre-market trading today, TUR is back below the descending support line that stretches back to 2010.
It also means that Turkey is doing its best to burn bridges with all foreign investors, both bulls and bears, which for a country that for the past decade has been entirely reliant on outside capital inflows, could spell a death sentence.
Meanwhile, unable to express their negative views on the economy via the currency - for now - Turkey bears have found a different way of betting on a Turkish economy implosion, namely Credit Default Swap, which soared to 454bps on Tuesday, a 40bps spike, and the highest since last summer's crisis.
Of course, Eedogan's vendetta against the shorts, and the elimination of virtually all liquidity just to force an FX squeeze, means that the broader economic slowdown and raging inflation, which is the true reason behind Turkey's simmering crisis, is about to get much worse. Meanwhile, with local banks burning through reserves to defend the currency on the front-end, and with shorts no longer present, it is only a matter of time before the currency collapses once more, only this time driven not by a flood of shorts but as longs capitulate ahead of what increasingly looks like another Turkish crisis.
ntroduction: Since the 1970s, emerging markets (EM) have experienced three large-scale exchange rate depreciation - the 1980s; the late 1990s; 2015-2016. And each round of emerging market currency depreciation corresponds to a strong dollar background, and eventually led to serious stagflation in some emerging economies, resulting in economic and financial crisis.
Combined with the previous article, we believe that each of the emerging crises driven by the strong dollar is the background of the appreciation of the US dollar. The fastest-growing emerging markets in the current period suddenly have liquidity, the financing conditions are suddenly braking, and the leverage ratio has risen sharply. The exchange rate devaluation is not only the appearance of this process, but also a negative feedback loop with the imbalance of emerging market economies.
Source: GF macro Author: GF macroeconomic research team
After some discussion of Turkey, the article moves on to the resource exporters and manufacturing countries:
For resource-based emerging markets. Resource-based EM countries include Brazil, South Africa, and Russia. Under the dollar-denominated monetary system, the natural seesaw relationship will lead to a decline in the implicit dollar value of resource products, weaken the global competitiveness of resource countries, and promote the depreciation of the exchange rate of resource countries. The sharp depreciation of the local currency will inevitably lead to imported inflation. Therefore, in a strong dollar environment, resource-based countries tend to have high inflation or even hyperinflation, and the economy is in a period of stagflation. Corporate profitability has weakened and domestic financing costs have risen sharply. The weak dollar cycle is logically opposite: the hidden value of the dollar in the resource product rebounds, the global competitiveness of the resource country increases, the corporate profit improves, the exchange rate appreciation reduces the input inflation risk, and the internal financing cost falls back.
For production emerging markets. Production type EM includes Korea, China, and the like. In South Korea, for example, the strong dollar background has depressed the price of resource products, and producer countries have low input inflation. However, monetary policy tends to lag behind economic growth and inflation. Therefore, a strong dollar often leads to a country with a downward trend in inflation and a rebound in real interest rates. The willingness to invest in the sector is weak. On the contrary, in the weak dollar environment, inflation in the producer countries rebounded, real interest rates fell, and private sector investment will increase.
What's notable is how little China is mentioned in this research piece.
That said, while I am almost always a few years early with my calls, I stuck with a negative outlook on Turkey because nothing improved, not even the charts. As I wrote in the 2017 post:
The head-and-shoulders pattern of TUR has a target price in the low single-digits, a more than 90 percent drop from current levels. Given the price target, Turkey's increasingly religious government, Europe's growing nationalism, the United States potentially warming relations with Russia and Turkey's conflict with Russia, the geopolitical forecast points to Turkey potentially losing NATO membership. Or de facto loss of membership if NATO refuses to defend Turkey from Russian attack because it fingers Turkey as the aggressor. It's also possible the West could enact economic sanctions and send the Turkish lira into a death spiral.
It appears Trump has done that with his sanctions on Turkey, the final backbreaking straw for the market.
Potential wildcards moving forward include a flood of migrants into Europe. Turkey has 3.5 million refugees and already threatened to let them out. Sweden votes on September 9 and some polls already have Sweden Democrats as the largest party in Sweden. Reflexivity is working in politics too.
During peak social mood, there was serious discussion about Turkey joining the European Union. This weekend Austria shut down anti-Western mosques and kicked their imams out of the country.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blasted Austria's decision to close mosques and expel Turkish-backed Imams as anti-Islamic and promised a response, saying the measures announced by Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz could lead to a "war between the cross and the crescent." Erdogan's comments came a day after the Austrian government said it would expel up to 60 Turkish-funded imams and shut down seven mosques as part of a crackdown on "political Islam", leading to widespread fury in Ankara.
"These measures taken by the Austrian prime minister are, I fear, leading the world towards a war between the cross and the crescent," Erdogan said in a speech in Istanbul, suggesting that a return of the Ottoman Empire is among the many ambitious "to do" items in Erdogan's calendar: after all that was the last time the "crescent" decided to take on the "cross", and coincidentally, the Turkish ambitions reached as far as Vienna before the Hapsburgs crushed the Ottoman ascent.
...Meanwhile, other conservative European leaders praised the move, including France's Marine Le Pen and Italy's Matteo Salvini. However, even Austria's opposition parties supported the decision, with the center-left Social Democrats calling it "the first sensible thing this government has done." Though Austria's Green Party argued that it could serve as propaganda for Turkey's government.
There is always war between the cross and crescent. Christendom has been at war with Islam ever since it emerged and they will probably be at war as long as both exist. The overly maligned Crusades were a counter-attack against Muslim invasion.
Samuel Huntington was right and Francis Fukuyama was wrong. It wasn't the end of history, it was the return of history, the clash of civilizations. The final wave of rising social mood was an ideological battle between capitalism and communism. The war ended near the peak in mood and ever since history has been reasserting itself. The globalists are holdovers from the Cold War and increasingly irrelevant as history makes its return.
This is played down as a squabble between NATO allies, but Turkey and the EU are moving in opposite directions politically. Turkey is shifting in a more Islamic direction and Europe in a more nationalist direction. Europe's establishment has seeded Europe with jihadist, Europe's establishment is slowly being replaced.
This is the most dangerous flash point in Europe. And since Turkey is toast, lashing out with a military strike and appeal to wider Islam makes sense.
Turkey's embattled lira on Wednesday lost over 3.5 percent in value to hit new historic lows against the US dollar, as markets watched to see if the central bank will take emergency action to buttress the currency.
Following sharp losses on Tuesday, the lira continued to underperform all other emerging market currencies, after suffering a hammering in Asian trade overnight when Japanese investors sold Turkish assets.
Like Spain’s biggest bank, Santander, BBVA has spent the last five years doubling down on its emerging economy bets, even as two of their biggest markets, Brazil and Turkey, have heated up politically and slowed economically.
After reaching a record high (USD 22 billion) in 2007, FDI flows to Turkey have decreased. FDI reached USD 13.3 billion in 2016 and dropped to USD 10.8 billion in 2017 according to Turkish Ministry of Economy (2018).The factors hindering FDI development include political instability (an attempted coup d'état took place in 2016 claiming many lives), the weak currency, inflation, the proximity to conflicts in the Middle East as well as administrative measures taken against the Gulenists for their alleged implication in the coup. Turkey is ranked 60th out of 190 economies by the World Bank in its Doing Business 2018 report (same ranking as in 2017).
EU member states are by the largest group of investors (67.9% of total investment in 2017) in Turkey
The rising dollar in 2018 will be like a flame to gasoline in emerging markets. Countries that ran up credit growth during the correction (more specifically their currencies) will have "accidents."
Bloomberg 2017: Why Erdogan Is Flooding Turkey’s Economy With Credit
Since last year’s foiled coup, which triggered emergency rule, Turkey has expanded state guarantees to rush about $50 billion of lira loans to almost 300,000 businesses with little transparency over how the money is spent. The government has also pooled about $200 billion of assets into a wealth fund. That’s so it can borrow against its stakes in companies like Turkish Airlines and Turk Telekom to build popular big-ticket infrastructure that will further swell a budget deficit that’s already projected to be the highest since 2010.
Officials have even proposed letting banks securitize their total loan book of $515 billion to finance more lira lending, though they’ve already dispersed 50 percent more than all deposits in the national currency, the most of any major economy. While a 22 percent surge in credit since the failed putsch is helping fuel 5 percent headline growth, which Erdogan has trumpeted as a vindication of his policies, it’s also threatening to prolong double-digit inflation.
Turkey's lira has hit record lows for the past week, thanks to what analysts say is the Turkish government's unwillingness to balance monetary policy to counter double-digit inflation.
And the fall has been accelerated by geopolitical uncertainty over U.S. and Russian military actions in neighboring Syria.
The inadequate increase in interest rates against inflation fueled the foreign exchange rush among local and foreign money holders, pushing prices even higher and further disrupting economic balances. On April 25, the Central Bank finally moved to raise its key interest rate, but even the 75-basis point hike was by then inefficient in curbing the foreign exchange.
On top of this, growth and rising interest rates in the United States have led global funds to start pulling out of emerging countries such as Turkey, which has the added disadvantage of a growing risk premium due to its involvement in the Syrian war. A repressive state of emergency in place since the failed coup attempt in July 2016 has been another major drawback and has irked the business community. The Turkish Industry and Business Association, the country's leading industrialist group, has frequently complained that the state of emergency is scaring off foreign investors, but to no avail.
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