Eliminate Electricity Production, Shift to Electric Cars

Toronto Star: Ontario energy grid emissions set to skyrocket 400% as Ford government forced to crank up the gas

Since all renewable energy projects were cancelled when Premier Doug Ford was elected, the province currently has no other way to compensate for the looming shutdown of a major nuclear reactor in Pickering, responsible for roughly 16 per cent of province-wide power. Only natural gas is available to meet rapidly growing demand for electricity, according to the IESO projections.

The projections show that the province’s natural gas plants — which only operate about 60 per cent of the time now — will run non-stop by 2033.

“The province has ignored energy planning for the last four years because there was no need. We had an energy surplus,” said Gord Miller, Ontario’s former environment commissioner — an independent watchdog position eliminated by the Ford government. “But now we’re in an energy squeeze. When Pickering turns off, we have no plans … and the default option is to up the gas.”

The story of how Ontario went from being a polluter to a beacon of green energy and back again is a political one that spans almost two decades and three premiers.

It starts in 2003, when then-premier Dalton McGuinty went out on a political limb to announce the complete phaseout of coal-fired generation. Over the next 12 years, carbon emissions from the electricity sector dropped precipitously — from more than 35 megatonnes of carbon in 2005 down to six in 2014, when Ontario became the first jurisdiction in the world to completely wean itself off coal.

But the cost of this achievement — a tripling of electricity rates — demanded a political price.

Green ideology is retarded because it is infested with central planning mentality and functions more like a religion. It fails on so many levels because it is irrational, faith-based and anti-scientific. Even if they were correct on the threat from CO2 emissions, which they wildly overstate, they are politically incompetent. Physics, logic, politics, on every level the plans are ludicrous. 

One does not eliminate electricity supply while increasing electricity demand via electric cars and expect anything but wholesale disaster. The Toronto Star article is trying to lay blame on the current premier, but the ultimate blame belongs on the morons who came up with this policy mix. I'm leaving out the possibility that people behind these policies are evil, but it is hard to imagine people being this stupid. A shift to electric vehicles has a range of outcomes. What if electric cars prove very popular? What if a tech breakthrough drops the price quickly and adoption accelerates? Where will extra power come from? Unless there's idle hydro power laying around, I don't see how anyone thinks this is possible without nuclear, natural gas or, the ultimate backfire, a return to coal. 

Look at the chart above. I'm eyeballing it, but it looks like there's barely a rise in electricity demand ex-transportation. The entire problem is being caused by electrification of transportation. Since markets are priced on the margin, a small deficit can create very large price increases. 

ESG and alternative energy are the biggest scams going. An economic agenda created by an anti-science, anti-physics, anti-capitalist, anti-human religious cult. It seems impossible today, but I really wonder if coal will make a major comeback. Not a full comeback, but maybe a serious player in the energy market. 

Adios EV Transition

This is exactly how inflation plays out. It isn't some even, smooth transition. The lying and foolish scum who created this mess will blame Russia, speculators, the pandemic, greed, sunspots, astrology, whatever absolves them of blame. There is a move to the exits from equity and bond markets. This is what it looks like when the flows get a little lopsided.

Clown Economy Comes to the UK

electrek: The British have a gas shortage, so they’re Googling electric cars like crazy

September 29 update: UK car-buying comparison website carwow reached out to Electrek today to let us know that it, too, like Carguide (see below), has experienced a huge surge in site searches for electric cars.

Compared to the previous week, carwow says EV searches increased 28% on Friday, 43% on Saturday, and 56% by Sunday September 26.

They will go from a gasoline shortage to an electricity shortage.

We Have Time for Transition to Nuclear Power

The Ethical SKeptic: The Climate Change Alternative We Ignore (to Our Peril)

Now follow this experiment to its next inferential step. From June 2018 through to the end of 2020, humans emitted significantly lower CO2 than in the most recent years. One can observe this in the chart to the right which indicates lower emissions during the June 2018 through end of 2020 timeframe.12 As we saw in the previous chart in Observation 1A, this was due unequivocally to China’s reaction to something which caused it to shut down industrial activity during that 2.5 year duration. Despite this sustained exceptional lower trend in CO2 emissions, curiously the Earth also happened to experience its hottest non El Niño year on record in 2020.13

This was explained away with no study nor ability to forecast whatsoever, as stemming from the following: “global shutdowns related to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic reduced particulate air pollution in many areas, allowing more sunlight to reach the surface and producing a small but potentially significant warming effect.”14 The credibility of climate models was severely strained with this form of ad hoc rescue. If 2.5 years of lower CO2 emissions also causes global temperatures to rise, then what are we doing? And why did we not know that this would occur in advance? Our models should have indicated this through ergodicity, yet they did not. We are broaching pseudo-theory with such an apologetic method. A theory which quickly explains everything a posteriori without any relevant research, likely explains nothing.

The inference to be drawn from Observations 1, 1A, 1B, 2, and 3 above supports the construct (pre-hypothesis) that something else may be driving the production of CO2 and methane emissions into the atmosphere aside from simply man. That something else is

a. a strong independent input variable which is already hotter than historical without external impetus,

b. functions independent of carbon and methane emissions, and

c. is at the same time causing the planet’s oceans to warm at a rate unachievable through man’s activity alone.

This heat is behaving like a strong independent input variable and not constrained-dependent output result. If climate heat is a constrained-dependent output, and we have sufficient enough grasp of its dynamics to begin to blame specific companies, peoples and countries for climate change, then our models necessarily should have predicted this 2020 temperature rise phenomenon as well. Yet our models were not successful in doing so. This is inductive (heteroductive) inference to be sure, but is also strong enough in terms of inferential merit to introduce plurality. Something is wrong in the epistemic sauce, and the 2020 Covid-19 experiment demonstrated this in spades. We are now compelled to introduce plurality, no matter how many fake skeptics tantrums this serves to elicit.

The next question along such a critical path of inquiry would be, from whence does this ‘already hotter’ heat derive? We believe that the answer can be drawn as inference from the next six critical path and deductive observational elements, which follow.

If the above is true, and if the astrophysicists are right, the Sun will offset much Man's impact on warming during the coming Solar Cycle. This would provide time for a slow-but-concerted shift towards nuclear power. Instead, the ruling class wants to wield Green ideology for a far more destructive "lockdown" of the economy in the name of climate change. The inflation unleashed by their policies will start wars and political revolutions. There isn't enough raw material supply for a rapid shift away from internal combustion engines and fossil fuels. The electric grid cannot and will not scale fast enough, moreover under the name of Green ideology, the ruling class is also retarding electricity grids will alternative energy and "green" regulations that make risk of catastrophic failure higher. Electricity prices will soar along with general inflation. A planned disaster is being orchestrated by those in power because they cannot maintain power without crushing economic competitors. This goes for USA vs China, but also internally between the less than elite ruling class and the rising elite in emerging industries that operate outside of the government's direct political control.

First of Many: California Town Bans New Gas Stations

Axios: Cities are starting to ban new gas stations

Petaluma, California, has voted to outlaw new gas stations, the first of what climate activists hope will be numerous cities and counties to do so.

You can be 100 percent assured they did zero study of future demand needs.

China Prioritizes Auto Sales Over Pollution and Congestion

Caixin: Shenzhen, Guangzhou to Ease Car Ownership Restrictions

The southern megacities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen will ease up on car ownership restrictions in a bid to boost China’s flagging auto sales — one of the country’s important economic drivers.

Both cities are planning to increase the quota of new license plates given out each month, a policy that has traditionally been used to help control congestion and pollution by limiting the number of cars on the road, according to the state-owned Southern Daily (link in Chinese).

...The move comes just a month after the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, issued a broader policy calling for all cities that limit license plates to increase their quotas. It specifically said all such cities should issue 50% more license plates in 2019 compared with this year’s levels, and 100% more in 2020.

Chinese Think Tank Proposes Ban on Conventional Cars

The plan calls for Beijing to make the move first and lead the nation. Even if you throw out all the environmental arguments, assume the batteries and coal-fired electricity are a net negative for the environment versus gasolie powered cars, reducing oil dependency makes sense from a national security and economic perspective.

Caixin: Beijing Should Ban New Conventional Car Sales by 2030, Think Tank Says

The capital could galvanize the rest of China’s megacities by becoming the first to ban the sale of new fossil fuel-run buses, shipping vehicles and taxis in the coming years. It should then ban the sale of new conventionally powered private cars by 2030, the Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation said in a report released this week.

The report forecast that gas vehicles’ days are numbered in China, with sales expected to peak around 2025. Hybrid and pure-electric vehicles will gradually take the lead from that point on, with pure-electric models likely to make up 85% of the market by 2050. Banning new gas vehicles would speed up the process while helping to clear the capital’s air, the report said.

Clownifornia Will Save America From Socialism

Socialism sounds great, but fails every time. And yes, some wealthy Nordic countries, even those without massive oil revenues, can make socialism-lite work with highly productive citizens, homogeneous populations and economic policies that favor entrepreneurship. They tax labor heavily and capital lightly. Consumption is heavily taxed. Not exactly the workers paradise. For that to work in the USA, we might let the progressives set the tax rate as a percentage of GDP and then let the Mises Institute write the tax code.

When countries go full socialist, they go down the tubes. Maintaining control relies on increased repression and narrative control. If it wasn't for the capitalists, greedy people, lazy people, foreigners, whatever, then everything would be going great! As the country circles the drain, the socialists don't wake up from their stupor. It's Russiagate all the way down.

Which is why those who favor human intelligence over stupidity and freedom over slavery need examples of real-life socialism. And luckily, Clownifornia will provide America with an iron-clad argument against socialism and the Green agenda.

New Geography: CALIFORNIA’S SELF-CREATED FUTURE ENERGY CRISIS

In much of the country a powerful energy boom is providing a serious stimulus to economic growth. But in California, where fossil fuels are considered about toxic as tobacco, we are lurching toward an anticipated energy shortage that will further exacerbate the state’s already deep geographic and class divisions.

California, in a typical feat of “virtue signaling,” has committed the state to getting half of its electrical power from renewables such as wind and solar, up from 16 percent today, within the next decade. This drive has meant the rapid abandonment of electricity generated by nuclear power as well as natural, gas which together comprised nearly 70 percent of all electricity production in 2015.

...If the mayor insists on transforming Los Angeles into a “green” paradise, expect much higher prices, and greater energy instability. California is already the second most expensive state for energy in the continental U.S. Similar policies have been responsible for high energy prices, and little greenhouse gas reductions, in such diverse places as Germany and Australia.

This is occurring, remarkably enough, as our political leaders commit to forcing more Californians to electrify everything — our heating and cooling systems as well as our cars. To meet the demand generated by electric cars alone, according to one recent estimate, would require 50 percent more electricity than today. This is occurring as we are not adding capacity but stripping it away from reliable nuclear and natural gas sources.

Electric cars powered by domestic nuclear energy would collapse emissions and wipe out energy imports, while creating an entirely new industry building advanced nuclear power stations. Incentives for electric car manufacturers could accelerate the country's move away from imports. The economic benefit and environmental benefit from onshoring all of this activity would be immense. California could lead the nation into a prosperous 21st Century. Instead, it is going full retard.

Ultimately, California’s energy policies reinforce the class and geographic bias that increasingly defines our state. Firms such as Apple boast of their solar-powered offices while using servers in energy-producing states and making products in Chinese factories reliant on coal. Generally new solar facilities, located far away from the coastal enclaves that demand them, gobble up land and kill wildlife; San Bernardino County recently restricted new solar “farms” due to such environmental concerns.

Nor is this policy doing much for the climate. Increasingly almost all new greenhouse gas emission come from countries such as China and India, which seem content to continue boosting fossil fuels. We are not even out-performing other states in reducing greenhouse gases: California ranks 40th in per capita GHG reductions among the states since 2007. Our biggest energy accomplishment may be boosting the self-esteem of the ruling caste of oligarchs, the political apparat and state-funded bureaucrats.

California's emissions are rising because of runaway population growth (relatively speaking), a result of its open borders policies. The state will be a crippled disaster zone with a generation if it follows these energy, population growth and electric car policies. The only way for socialism and the Green agenda to win is to make sure Clownifornia does not stand out as an example. Progressives must consolidate power rapidly and make backwards economic police the national agenda, all while shutting down all dissent on social and alternative media. If they can't, the reality of California will be all that's needed to turn American voters off the idea of socialism.

Zombie Cars: China Targets Overcapacity in Auto Industry

Initial reports out of China earlier today focused on the alternative energy aspect of the policy, but it looks more like the goal is reducing overcapacity.
The Economic Times: China to curb 'haphazard and redundant' auto investment

China's National Development and Reform Commission, seeking to address mounting excess auto manufacturing capacity, wants to restrict ways automakers can invest in new capacity to manufacture traditional gasoline-fueled cars as well as electric battery cars, according to a draft of the policy which has made public.

To be allowed to invest in greenfield developments such as new factories, automakers would need to have healthy, above-industry-average capacity utilization and R&D investment, and a commitment to green cars and exports, among other conditions.

Industry players are alarmed by the prospects because they say very few automakers would be able to meet the conditions fully if the proposed policy took effect as drafted.

According to this article, about one-third of China's auto production capacity is idle. Will it work? As with coal and steel, many auto producers may be provincial and local government-owned companies. They fought to keep plants open for years.

There is, however, a view among some industry officials that no matter how severely NDRC restricts investments for new manufacturing capacity, the decree might be disregarded given fierce competition among different cities and provinces chasing investments.

"Provincial governments will prioritise attracting new investments as in the process will find ways to ignore NDRC's rules," one of the two industry officials said.

Same as it ever was. 山高皇帝远 Local Chinese Officials Don't Follow President Xi's Orders

China's MIIT Could Revoke 30 Companies' EV Car Qualifications

People's Daily: 30家车企新能源资质恐遭叫停

Faced with the problem of scattered new energy automobile industry in China, relevant domestic departments began to clean up the production qualifications of enterprises. On September 3, the Equipment Industry Development Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the Publicity of the List of Enterprises to Be Specially Reported on New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers (First Batch)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), and it is planned to stop production. The list of 30 companies with new energy vehicle products for 12 months and above is reported to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will publicize and verify, and the car companies that have not passed the verification will be ordered to stop production and sales activities. The industry believes that the new energy vehicles, which account for only 3% of total production and sales, are scattered in more than 200 auto companies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will re-examine the production qualifications of 30 enterprises, which will undoubtedly start the domestic production and rectification. The first shot.

MIIT doesn't mention any further details. But mainland citizens know EV is really a joke. Nobody will buy those "terrible" EV. Expensive and futile!! Merely a way to coax subsidy. Each EV can get 10k RMB or more from gov't...

— Simon Ting (@simonting) September 4, 2018

Developing EVs brings in subsidy income. A couple of years ago the robotics industry was seeing "explosive growth" because companies were soaking up subsidies.

2016: Rent Seeking in China's Robotics Industry. From the quoted article:

More importantly, these places are given a real money signal - subsidies. Shenzhen, for example, from 2014 until 2020, the Shenzhen municipal finance will be arranged 500 million yuan each year, the seventh consecutive year grants robots, wearable devices and intelligent equipment industry. The Dongguan is scheduled in 2014-2016, the municipal financial arrangements for three consecutive years an annual budget of 200 million yuan, sponsored enterprises use advanced automation equipment for a new round of technological innovation, this is called "machine Substitution" program. The whole of Guangdong provincial government to be outdone, on April 18 this year, the province has just 2016 Industry and Information Technology development funds in the development of robot thematic funds of about 360 million yuan, reached at around the level to listing-related sectors.

...Insiders, who asked not to be named, symmetry, under profit-driven and the first (set) quantitative restrictions, some companies can register more than one company, the first sets of project funding application, or a company can apply for 10 units (sets) annual subsidy but if they create 10 companies then 100 (sets) products can enjoy the subsidy." This leads to the result that we sell 1,000 units of the product and earn less money than a company that sells 100." A robot company official lamented.

Back to the latest news on EV cars:

Article 23 of the Regulations shows that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will give special notice to new energy vehicle manufacturers that stop producing new energy vehicle products for 12 months or more. If the relevant enterprise is re-produced, it must be verified by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. If it is not passed, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shall order it to stop production and sales activities.

It is noteworthy that at the beginning of July this year, the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the average fuel consumption of passenger car companies and the new energy vehicle points management platform (hereinafter referred to as “double point management platform”) have been launched, and double-point transactions for passenger car companies. Officially launched. In the eyes of the industry, the future double-point transaction will become an important solution to make up for the new energy auto companies to retreat from subsidies every year, and even stop the profits caused by the “deficit” and alleviate the cost pressure. Once the above 30 companies have been canceled, it means that they will lose their new energy vehicle points and have to purchase points to fill the gap.

It is worth noting that there are currently 15 companies that have obtained the qualifications for independent new-built pure electric vehicles, and only seven companies with dual-qualified pure electric vehicles. Since this year, policy subsidies have gradually withdrawn, and all will be withdrawn by 2020. This also means that the window period left for the car companies is not much. On the other hand, there are currently more than 200 companies waiting for qualifications, and these companies still have to guarantee capital and manpower investment during the queuing process.

Some Fossils are Better Than Others

Bloomberg: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

Suddenly, buses with battery-powered motors are a serious matter with the potential to revolutionize city transport—and add to the forces reshaping the energy industry. With China leading the way, making the traditional smog-belching diesel behemoth run on electricity is starting to eat away at fossil fuel demand.

The numbers are staggering. China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

CTRL-F "coal" produces zero results.

Invest in Nuclear or Short California Real Estate

The Sacramento Bee: California lawmaker wants to ban gas car sales after 2040

Ting is among the policymakers pushing to increase incentives for drivers to ditch their gas guzzlers. He is also working on legislation that would overhaul California’s electric car rebate program by making more money available for rebates, then ratcheting down the value of those discounts as the state hits sales targets.

“California is used to being first. But we’re trying to catch up to this,” Ting said.

France and the United Kingdom both announced this summer that they would ban the sale of new gas and diesel cars after 2040. India is aiming to get there by 2030. And China said this month that it would stop the production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels in the coming years.

I'm not up-to-date on the UK, but India plans to increase nuclear power 9x by 2032 and to generate 25 percent of electricity with nuclear. France gets nearly 80 percent of its electricity from nuclear reactors. China is building them like crazy. In other words, these countries have already built or have started work on the infrastructure needed for electric cars.

Clownifornia, not so much. If they push forward with electrification, they'll have a significant power deficit. Either the state will have sky-high electricity prices, killing the economy and spreading poverty across the state, or they'll pay through the nose to build nuclear as they try to make up for decades of poor planning.

Incentives: Electric Car Edition

Caixin: China Pulls Plug on Electric Vehicle Fraud

Nearly 4,500 subsidized electric vehicles produced by the seven companies were found to have less powerful batteries than the firms declared when applying for incentives, according to an MIIT statement published on Saturday.

The seven firms are Zhengzhou Nissan Auto Co. Ltd., SAIC Bus Tangshan Co. Ltd., Chongqing Lifan Passenger Vehicle Co. Ltd., Chongqing Hengtong Bus Co. Ltd., Shanghai Sunwin Bus Co. Ltd., Nanjing Special Auto Manufacturing Co. Ltd., and China Youngman Automobile Group Co. Ltd.

The MIIT has removed the models in question from the list of approved electric vehicles and stopped accepting applications from the seven firms. It has also ordered them to rectify all existing problems within two months, after which they will be reassessed by MIIT.

The move comes amid an ongoing nationwide investigation, which started in January 2016, into new-energy vehicle subsidy fraud — spurred by a government incentive program — that has seen firms collect hundreds of millions of yuan after inflating the number of vehicles they had made.

Why mess with electric cars when you can go Rent Seeking in China's Robotics Industry?

Central Planning Fails Again: Electric Cars Edition

SCMP: Is China’s electric car dream turning into a zombie nightmare?

The company, founded six years ago, had planned to be churning out 100,000 small and mid-sized battery-powered sedans a year by now – twice as many as Tesla produced last year – but only a few dozen workers can be seen at the factory, where a handful of finished sample cars sit on display stands in a corner.

That’s not much of a return for millions of yuan in provincial and city government assistance, but is symptomatic of the plight of many Chinese cities frantically searching for hi-tech white knights capable of rescuing local economies from collapse.

...Scott Kennedy, a director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said subsidising a new electric car “makes no sense”.

“There are likely dozens, or hundreds of similar useless efforts occurring throughout the country, not just in electric vehicles, but in semiconductors, renewable energy, robotics, big data, and other high-priority technologies where subsidies are flowing faster than water through the Three Gorges,” he said.

In many, if not most of these cases, the failed projects are local initiatives. Central planning is a horrible idea for any complex system, but at least in the case of a steel mill or coal mine, the technology and process are known. With technology, there are too many unknowns and too much failure. Local Chinese governments want guarantees, not uncertainty, and the result is massive capital destruction. At least in a free economy, the capital destruction serves a purpose because new companies try new approaches, teaching the next company what not to do. In China, many governments choose the same path of failure, the result is total destruction. Even if they're wedded to the idea of central planning, a better approach is to create low cost factors of production, overproduce on something that at least has marginal demand, such as electricity. For example, if I wanted my roads filled with electric cars, I would build several advanced nuclear reactors first, enough to produce an oversupply of electricity. Then even if the cars fail, the locals might be able to earn money doing something else, like mining Bitcoins.

Interested in Lithium?

Many hybrid cars use lithium-ion batteries and this has spawned intense interest in lithium as an investment. Most importantly, China is pushing its automakers to move to electric, a topic I covered back in April. I did some quick research and came up with a few names (symbols from Yahoo Finance).

Chemical & Mining Co. of Chile (SQM)
FMC Corporation (FMC)
Admiralty Resources (ADY.AX)
Canada Lithium (CLQ.V)
Western Lithium Canada (WLC.V)
Lithium One (LI.V)
Rodinia Minerals (RM.V)

It clear that investors are late to this party if they're looking for the easy gains. I haven't dug into this sector, but in pure psychological terms, if I was very bullish on the stock market I would expect this sector to attract a lot of speculative activity, while it would be hard hit during another panic. As an investor I would prefer lower prices, but recent gains are partially due to favorable comparisons due to last year's panic. A longer view shows a less extreme move from pre-crash levels.
Most of the more speculative names have risen to new highs, while the diversified SQM and FMC are still off their highs. Whether current levels are attractive is another question, in addition to the question of whether lithium will prove to be part of any winning technology.

China‘s Going Electric!

Dongfeng Nissan said it plans to roll out its first electric car in China in 2011, one year earlier than scheduled.

Nissan's alliance with Renault earlier signed a cooperative memorandum on promoting the use of electric vehicles with China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Under the memorandum, Nissan will provide information about the development of electric vehicles and formulate plans of the construction of battery recharge networks and promote the wide use of electric vehicles.

东风日产拟于2011年在华推出电动车

大谷俊明透露，东风日产原计划在2012年将电动车引入中国，但是由于形势的变化，将这一时间提前到了2011年。他表示，电动车不是只要能动就可以，而是在不牺牲驾乘体验的前提下实现零排放。因此，东风日产一旦开始将电动车引入中国，一定是以大规模的推进为目标的。

　　4月初，雷诺-日产联盟宣布与中国工业和信息化部（下称工信部）在中国国内推广零排放汽车项目上达成合作伙伴关系。根据协议，日产汽车将为工信部提供电动汽车发展的相关信息，制定包括电池充电网络建立和维护、促进电动汽车大规模使用的综合规划。

　　大谷俊明说，根据工信部的部署，中国将在13个城市进行电动车的试点工作，这一过程中，需要考虑充电站等基础设施如何布局，如何出台鼓励措施。虽然双方的合作还在信息交流阶段，但2011年已经不远，东风日产会尽快启动小规模的试点工作。

Shares of BYD (1211.HK) popped after Warren Buffett's purchase became public:

Some say it's mystic
It's electric
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You can't resist it
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You can't do without it
It's electric
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