China back from vacation, rare earths run

I'm looking at gold mining stocks to compare A-shares to H-shares, as China returns from vacation today. Lingbao Gold (3330) has been on a tear, up 30% in the past week including today's move, but it appears the A-shares aren't doing any catching up today, only pacing Lingbao.

I included China Rare Earth (0769) because that stock continues to catch a bid on monster volume. The relative performance versus Molycorp (MCP) is looking much better now. Since Yahoo has difficulty with the time difference, I had to create a chart comparing the prices. China Rare Earth includes today's intraday gains as of around noon in Hong Kong. This will be an interesting relationship going forward.

China Rare Earth and Lingbao Gold are both up more than 30% this week, with only a few hours left in trading. China Rare Earth has spiked before and I've seen shorter spikes occur before, only to watch them almost completely fade away in the ensuing days and weeks. Whether this rally is connected to the politics of the region (with China supposedly slowing rare earth exports to Japan during the brouhaha over the detained sea captain) or the expectation of currency devaluation (the similar move in Lingbao suggests the latter) could mean the move is more permanent, but I still expect a healthy and sizable pullback.

谢国忠喜欢黄金和能源股票

买房不如买黄金以及能源股

我的理财建议---我觉得现在我对能源股票、黄金我觉得比较看好。我觉得今后十年里面都是通胀型的，全世界都是通胀型的，所以这两个领域会有一定的保障，保值比较好，而且保值当中会有一定的上升空间。如果房子已经涨了三倍到四倍了，黄金的价格涨了一倍，那相对来说那黄金更有价值了。房地产是很多要自己住，而且房地产不像股票黄金，它交易也很不容易。如果房子你租出去的租金，我听到很多人都在说，我租出去的房子才这么一点钱，过了两年收回来的时候内装修又要重新装一遍，这个钱还不够，因为住户把地板什么都搞坏了，所以这个就是没有回报的。

有很多很多可能性是。 这三个我看看，也买了中国稀土。
蒙古能源 0276.HK
灵宝黄金 3330.HK
中国稀土 0769.HK

谢国忠：看好黄金涨到2000美元

大回调之后再买

《大众证券报》：在金融危机爆发后，你一直看好黄金。目前，市场上有一种乐观的看法，认为未来黄金能涨到2000美元/盎司，你是否同意这种观点？

　　谢国忠：长远来看，在二三年内黄金涨到2000美元/盎司是有可能的，我还是比较看好黄金、石油的，因为有通胀、央行货币发放太多的因素。这是
一个趋势，但是不会一路涨到底，在这个过程中会有反复，所以，短线来说，涨得太多了就不能再追了。看好一个品种，都是在一个大回调以后再去买，风险比较
低。涨得比较快就说明有热钱在流入，有流入就会有流出，就容易导致短线亏损。

金矿:
山东黄金（600547.SS）
中金黄金（600489.SS）
紫金矿业（601899.SS, 2899.HK）
荣华实业（600311.SS）
灵宝黄金（3330.HK）
招金矿业（1818.HK）
瑞金矿业（0246.HK）
澳华黄金 (1862.HK)
紫金矿业H股2899比A股601899升值了百分五十多，2899跟招金矿业1818差不多。
这里有美国的金矿。

看到香港和美国金矿差不多，但是上边看大陆落后. 可是看看一年的:

如果黄金价格比通货膨胀升值多或者价格下降比通货紧缩少: 我是金矿牛. 最近金矿股票升值了,但是黄金没升值. 如果股市下降和黄金不升值,金矿股票会下降.

透露一个消息: 我买了NSU和GLD.

2009/05/07 News

Light posting lately. I've been studying up on the German hyperinflation (德国恶性通货膨胀) of the early 1920s, and will post about it in future.

Markets are gaining on no news and bad news (stress tests at U.S. banks). China's PMI numbers indicate economic expansion in April, and positive reports from companies such as Alibaba (1688.HK) have helped send the market higher. Optimism is in charge.

On to gold and gold miners:
From the Financial Times: China to continue buying gold

China is likely to buy more gold as a means of diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, after having recently doubled its holdings of the precious metal, the Financial Times reported, citing gold analysts.

The newspaper said analysts believe China will buy gold mostly from domestic producers to avoid pushing international prices higher.

More here:中国将继续增加黄金
Domestic producers include Sino Gold (1862.HK), Lingbao Gold (3330.HK), Zijin Mining (2899.HK), and Jinshan Gold (JIN.TO).

From Caijing:

Zijin Mining Shareholder Cuts Stake
Zijin Mining Group Co, China's largest gold producer, said its second-largest individual shareholder has lowered his stake to 1.72 percent from 2.24 percent.
Ke Xiping sold around 74.8 million Zijin Mining shares between April 27 and May 5.
After the sale, Ke and Hengxing Group, in which Ke holds 95.4 percent, held a combined 4.99 percent of Zijin Mining.

紫金矿业第二大自然人股东减持7477万股

And finally, the big news:

Taiwan and China are planning to permit trading of each others’ shares for the first time as ties improve 60 years after their civil war ended.

A so-called trading platform may list as many as 30 stocks from each market, said Schive Chi, chairman of the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Now, investors are restricted from directly investing in each others’ equities. An agreement on the dual-listing of exchange-traded funds is also expected this year, he said.

iShares Taiwan (EWT)is 65 percent off it's lows this year. The potential gains for Taiwan's economy and stock market are much greater than for China, due to their relative size, but the cross-straits trade will be a boost to the entire region's economy.

Gold & Energy Performing Well After Fed Announcement

My Best of Funds portfolio had been in a funk for about three weeks, as I covered my shorts a bit early and didn't go long the market, sticking mainly with cash, precious metals, and miners. However, yesterday's move, and today's if things hold through the close, lifted the fund to a new all-time high. The $70 swing in gold, from yesterday's lows to today's highs, was the main catalyst, while higher oil prices helped. One stock I'd added recently was Hercules Offshore (HERO), up more than 20% today and over 40% in the fund. I can't really thank Ben Bernanke for the move, even though he's responsible. I'd prefer to invest in positive growth stories, rather than the destruction of the U.S. dollar—but I also prefer high probability trades to low probability ones.

I was checking to see how the Hong Kong and Chinese listed shares on my watch list were doing. On the Mainland, the notable mover was Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery <上海振华港口机械>(600320.SS), which gained just under the 10% limit.

A big mover on the Nasdaq was General Steel Holdings (GSI), up 12.8% yesterday and on pace for another 14% today.

In Hong Kong, Lingbao Gold <灵宝黄金> (3330.HK) climbed 15% and Mongolia Energy <蒙古能源> (0276.HK) advanced 20.9%.

Newsworthy (article links in English): ZTE reported 2008 full year earnings. <中兴通讯>(0763.HK, 000063.SZ)
Forbes also has an article on ZTE's push into the American smart phone market.

Tencent reported 2008 full year earnings. <腾讯> (0700.HK)

Li Ning reported 2008 earnings. 中文 <李宁> (2331.HK)

Nice move for GR Vietnam - Watch List Update

I added GR Vietnam (0139.HK)to my watch list of Hong Kong and Mainland listed stocks because it provides exposure to the Vietnamese consumer market. Shares have popped in the past week though. It had been sitting around HK$0.05 to HK$0.06 for about three months, but it rose to HK$0.17 today. It's up 246% since I added it to my watch list on January 22.

Other shares are up as well due to an overall market rally. The best performers among my January 22 new additions was Ming Hing Water (added January 20; 0402.HK), up 7.69%; Sinoma (1893.HK, up 7.91%; China Dongxiang (3818.HK), up 16.35%; Lingbao Gold (3330.HK), up 43.37%; and Zijin Mining (2899.HK), up 21.50%. The worst performance came from Sinofert (0297.HK), down 3.16%; and Swire Pacific (added January 7; 0019.HK), a Marc Faber pick, down 18.08%.

There's still plenty of shares on my list down in a range from 30-60+%, especially in the materials sector.

China's stimulus package should deliver a boost to some infrastructure companies. I notice the chart on Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery <上海振华港机>(600320.SS) has had a nice steady rebound from November.

Mengniu (2319.HK), mentioned on this blog before, lost 10% on Wednesday and fell as much as 20% during the day. Caijing<财经> has two articles on the company: Chemical Additives in Mengniu Milk Prohibited and Dumex, Mengniu Dairy Products under Probe. Originally I thought they'd be able to pull out of the scandal, but the brand erosion may be approaching the point of no return.