FX Charts Reaching Turmoil Zone

Shaanxi is England, England is Shaanxi

Chinese netizens have launched a meme. Video link (Sohu): 极为相似! 网友为了证明“英国就是陕西”, 列出九大证据

NetEase: 极为相似! 网友为了证明“英国就是陕西”, 列出九大证据

Don't Sleep on WW3

ZH: Russia To Present 'Evidence' UK Special Forces Behind Crimea Attacks

Moscow says it has firm evidence that Britain's military assisted with last weekend's large-scale drone attack on its Black Sea fleet off Crimea.

Russia said it plans to summon the British ambassador "in the near future" in order to present "evidence" the UK was behind the operation, which had threatened to collapse the UN-brokered Ukrainian grain export deal.

While Russia has on Wednesday announced it is re-entering the grain deal after receiving "guarantees" from Ukraine and Turkey, it is still pointing the finger at London for sending "specialists" to help Kiev forces launch Saturday's drone attack.

Russia probably doesn't want escalation, but that doesn't mean they won't retaliate in some way while the war is ongoing. The risk in wartime isn't always intentional escalation, but often accidental because something goes wrong. Since the psychotics in charge of the key Western governments are looking for escalation though, my hunch is Russia will avoid it for now.

Good-bye Again Great Britain, Bond Market Dictatorship Begins

The market popped to 3700 this morning on news the bond markets are back in control of Western governments.

ZH: Truss To Fire Kwarteng, Make Major U-Turn On Tax Cuts

Shades of the 1970s:

Instead of tax cuts, rumor has it there will be tax hikes. Various sides of the political circus will have their say about spending and policy, but lets be perfectly objective about deficit spending. Credit growth fuels economic growth as measured by GDP. We can debate up and down about the quality of that GDP, but we cannot argue that higher credit growth generates higher GDP. Even in extreme situations where the government is imploding the economy via hyperinflation, stopping that inflation will cause incredible short-term deflation. Slower credit growth will cause slower growth in the short term. Lower deficit spending will in the longer-term generate higher quality growth as government shrinks in the economy, but that will take time.

Politically speaking, one doesn't want to take office ahead of this collapse unless you have campaigned on doing it. Reagan survived a major recession early in his first term because he unleashed massive deficit spending at the same time inflation had finally peaked and the public was in the mood for reform. Thatcher came into power after the cuts had been made. Truss will end up like Kwarteng.

Only "revolutionary" leaders can handle the current situation. Almost the entirety of the ruling class wants to preserve the existing order. Most of the supposed outsiders are empty suit pretenders or losers who cannot handle the situation. I even include Trump in here because he surrounded himself with clowns and toadies. He came in with a good cabinet and strong advisors, and most were gone within a couple months of his election. Then he put some good people in at the last minute after losing the election. In between was a clown show with warmongers like John Bolton.

Everybody Wants to Buy the Dip

ZH: Here Comes The Open Revolt: A Reeling Europe Lashes Out At The Fed For "Bringing Us To A World Recession"

At least that was the case until now: because today, in a startling outcry breaching the unspoken protocol of "no dissent, never dissent", Josep Borrell, the high representative of the 27-member EU bloc, lashed out all too publicly at the Fed when he said that central banks (across Europe where the recession will be far, far worse than in the US) are being forced to follow the Fed’s multiple rate rises to prevent their currencies from slumping against the dollar, and compared the US central bank’s influence to Germany’s dominance of European monetary policy before the creation of the euro.

Of course, back then the solution to the super deutsche mark was simple: pool all nations under a common currency umbrella, even if it means misery for the less productive, and less mercantilist countries (hence the neverending European sovereign debt crisis which remains in hibernation only thanks to the ECB's bond buying). This time however, there is no simple solution taking advantage of gullible states, instead now that they've broken the seal of silence, the "leaders" of Europe admit to just how powerless they truly are when the custodian of the world's reserve currency has to do what's best only for itself, allies and friends be damned:

“Everybody has to follow, because otherwise their currency will be [devalued],” Borrell said to an audience of EU ambassadors, the FT reported. “Everybody is running to increase interest rates, this will bring us to a world recession.”

Because otherwise their currency will be devalued.

Because otherwise their currency will be devalued.

Because otherwise their currency will be devalued.

Because otherwise their currency will be devalued.

Because otherwise their currency will be devalued.

Because otherwise their currency will be devalued.

How many people who say the reserve currency status makes USD strong also realize every other nation on Earth is printing money more aggressively? The moment the U.S. starts acting in its own interest, the world squeals for more U.S. money printing. The Bank of England extended their new "temporary" QE program today...

The path to total economic devastation is becoming clear. A Federal Reserve pivot in any form will reignite speculative activity. It will reward buy-the-dip. This will produce a mind-bending rally that could wipe some bears out. Apres cette...

Crude broke down yesterday. Along with my horizontal, I'll be watching $90.50 on crude this morning. Always pay attention when as asset is behaving well with respect to chart, particularly wildly psychotic assets (chart-wise) such as crude oil. I'm quite heavily short energy after adding more weekly puts on XLE yesterday.

Gold also behaved extremely well yesterday. First it hugged my higher horizontal (from my SlopeChart) and then held the final line on this chart.

BTC is hanging on. At this point, I admit to having some doubt that it will crack, but that's why its breakdown will be part of a larger capitulation event in the market. I'm not alone in thinking that.

I don't think this line is extremely important for the ES, but this is the last line I have on the chart. Below it, the "support" is the prior 52-week low made at the end of September.

There are still shorting opportunities for aggressive investors. XLP and XLE look particularly vulnerable, as do bank stocks if their earnings reports are negative. They start reporting on Friday. Another important report this week is Domino's on Thursday. I have puts on it and McDonald's. I don't know if the stock will breakdown this week or not, but there's a monster bearish setup. McDonald's is still below a long-term support line. It's the type of setup I want a position on. If Domino's guides lower or misses because of labor costs, the entire restaurant sector has bearish chart setups.

Finally, it seems that everyone wants to buy the dip, including myself and many bears. Everyone fears a Fed pivot could catch them mispositioned. If the market makes everyone lose, then maybe something very scary is about to happen that will make everyone fear holding stocks. Or something very good will happen that catches all the bears off guard. I lean towards the former rather than the latter, but the CPI is coming this week. Be on alert.

Transterror: Police In UK Making Arrests Based on Complains About Online Posts

Satanic government is here. A woman in the UK was arrested for posting on the site KiwiFarms, one of the few remaining sites that allow freedom of expression. Only haters need to use this sites though, don't you know that? If you are interested in free speech, you must be evil, because if you weren't evil, you wouldn't need free speech.

Archive link: A thread about my evening.

Threadreader: It’s scary that the police can take someone’s word for something and just come and arrest you.

Communists didn't and don't arrest everyone who is guilty of thought crimes. There aren't enough resources. Instead, examples are made. I have seen it up close in CCP-run China and know my Cold War history.

People can't see the whole picutre clearly because they're focused on trees. Russia is a white Christian nation. MAGA voters are largely white Christians. Both groups oppose the transgender movement and take issue with many aspects of the LBGTQ movements. There's not much more to understand than that. The Baizuo who run USG are naming their enemies. They see alliances that don't exist all around because they are a small minority of the people. They want to force existential wars on their foreign and domestic enemies because it destabilizes the world and gives them greater power. Bombing Nordstream is no different than the latest "white supremacy" false flag. They own Germany the same way they own "the black community."

Satanic, totalitarian government is all but in place in the West. The keystone will be central bank digital currencies that will give the government total control over your life. You'd better buy physical money now. BTC and other forms of tranparent cryptocurrency offer no protection because the government can unravel a network with one address if they can tie it to a real identity. It has already been done based on publicly available information (sites and people who post their address have unwittingly exposed all the addresses they've interacted with). In the future, clean crypo will be that which never went through an identity check and never transacted with a "black" address. More likely, cash and small denomination coinage, be it copper, gold, silver and so on, will function in black markets. Buy your guns and ammunition now. Prepare whatever you want to own now because once the digital currency is launched, it will be illegal to buy anything the Baizuo don't like and if you say anything the Baizuo don't like, you will be unable to pay for food, shelter or medicine.

Russia Ready for WW3

I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin's speech.

Archive link

They're crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens, do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2? They invented genders and claim you can "transition". Do we want this for our children?

We have a different vision.

They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism - direct quote.

The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multipolar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.

We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming

liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak - direct quote. These will only grow.

We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West's hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).

There is no going back. We are fighting for our "great (as in big), historic Russia". Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.

Truth is with us, Russia is with us.

Something like a Western civil war could happen. There are people on both sides of this conflict in most countries.

This Bear Move Will End When...The Pound Falls to Dollar or Euro Parity

When charts break major levels, it can be tough to find a target. Fibonacci levels are one option. When looking for a psychological number, I think parity between the pound and dollar is as good as any. The pound fell more than 5 percent last week. Another 8 percent is not excessive by comparison.

It helps that it lines up a fib level.

If you want to get more bearish though, the cross with the euro looks like a potentially huge top, or potentially huge base for EURGBP. That makes sense though. If all fiat currencies will die, then I think the UK being independent increases the odds they devalue before the Bundesbank. I mean ECB.

Pounded

British pound made a new multi-decade low versus USD today.

Confirming NYFed DSGE Model, BoE Warns of 2 Year Recession

Back in June, Jeff Snider pointed out the NY Fed's DSGE model predicts 2 years of recession. GDP might not recover to 2021 levels until 2025 or later. This is a dynamic model, but this is the midpoint of the range of possible outcomes. The economy could be far stronger or far worse. Looking at data such as yield curve inversion, past history of commodity price spikes and so on, I expect worse.

If the U.S. has it bad, Europe could become a wasteland. BOE Raises Rates by Most Since 1995, Warns of Long Recession (Archive link)

The Bank of England unleashed its biggest interest-rate hike in 27 years as it warned the UK is heading for more than a year of recession under the weight of soaring inflation. The pound fell.

The half-point increase to 1.75%, predicted by most economists, on Thursday was backed by eight of the central bank’s nine policy makers, who also kept up a pledge to act forcefully again in the future if needed.

“The committee will be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response,” Governor Andrew Bailey told reporters in London. “All options are on the table for our September meeting, and beyond that.”

The pound slid after the move, which was accompanied by warning that a UK recession will begin in the fourth quarter and last all the way through next year.

The BOE also boosted its forecast for the peak of inflation to 13.3% in October amid a surge in gas prices, and warned that price gains will remain elevated throughout 2023. That will sharpen a cost-of-living crisis that will see real disposable incomes fall more than at any time in around 60 years.

Europe is in far worse shape because of the Russia sanctions. The could alleviate price pressures by backing off the war, otherwise things will play out as they predict, but probably worse. Since the U.S. is already in recession, it isn't going to be helped by the UK and Europe weakening. Maybe the U.S. can recover sooner, or maybe China will as in 2008.

Here's the DSGE model. I disagree with their forecast because I doubt there will be two years like the past six months, a mild recession that goes on and on. Instead, it should have some point where things reach a peak. That said, the model also doesn't predict much growth after the economy bottoms out. The growth out of that recession is also expected to be mild, meaning it could take another year or two to get back to the prior peak of GDP. Looking at an economic downturn as the time to recapture prior peak, this could be the longest recession since the Great Depression.

For more of my thoughts on the economy, see It's Not a Recession. It's a Depression.

Gasoline Price Change Since End of 2020

Highest to lowest increase: USA, China, UK, Italy, Germany, Mexico, Japan.

Governments Start Collapsing

The Great Reset is fun until it comes for its masters.

The Occupier Ruling Class Loathes Their Own Nations

Wimbledon Confused After Danielle Medvedev Enters Women's Tournament

Yahoo: Wimbledon ready to ban Daniil Medvedev over fears Russian win could boost Vladimir Putin's regime

Wimbledon are ready to ban world No2 Danill Medvedev from this year’s tournament over fears a Russian victory could boost the Vladimir Putin regime.

Word has it Danielle Medvedev has denounced Putin and will play in the women's tournament.

Idiocracy Comes at You Fast

Toronto Sun: British hospitals asking men if they are pregnant before getting scans

The Walton Centre National Health Service Foundation Trust in Liverpool is just one of a handful of National Health Service trusts that asks “all patients under the age of 60, regardless of how you may identify your gender,” the Daily Telegraph reported.

The amendment comes after the NHS was slammed for “prioritizing gender over sex in order to be inclusive of trans people, including on single-sex wards,” according to the paper.

The wife of a cancer patient said the “unfair” question caused “unnecessary confusion and agitation” for her husband, who was already emotional from brain surgery and the steroids in his system.

Would you want to get medical treatment from this facility? Would you trust a doctor that asked this question? I would not.

You might think this is nonsense and doesn't affect your care, but I disagree. A big "red pill" for me was the realization that as society degrades and becomes stupider over time (population IQ is declining via demographic changes), an increasing number of people aren't in on the joke. All of the nonsense ideas from climate hysteria to systemic racism to this gender stupidity started off as fringe ideas that people tolerated as a joke or because it was politically useful. "Let's scare our donors to death to raise money!" is a tactic used by the Southern Poverty Law Center, the ADL, various Green groups, BLM, the Democrat Party, the Republican Party, mainstream media, the CIA, the FBI, defense contractors, pharma companies and so on. There were some Islamic terror attacks after 9/11 in the U.S., but from what I can tell, the share of terror plots created by the FBI and discovered by the FBI crossed sometime around 2010, and since then we've been in a state of manufactured terror. They've run out of Islamists to scam and moved on to the "domestic" terror threat from people who ask about the FBI concocting terror plots...yet it's not clear to me that people who should know it's fake, such as the media and most politicians, know it is fake. They believe it. When your leaders are completely enthralled to false narratives, what hope is there for the wider society? The rot has reached the top. The original cultists died without telling their children not to drink the Kool-aid.

In the case of this "pregnant men" nonsense, the first doctors get it. Maybe they go along with it, or not, but you "know" that they know it's a joke. Men can't get pregnant. Some portion of the public doesn't know though. They don't get it. They do not think independently. Instead, they trust the doctors. There are many doctors and nurses, evidenced clearly during the coronavirus panic, who also do not think independently. They implement policy as dictated from Washington or whatever institution is seen as authoritative in the moment.

We are at the point in decline where you should panic when you hear a doctor ask you a question such as this because it is a very important piece of information telling you, "The lights are on, but nobody is home." Also, many people are confused by it. What is a transgender man? Is it a woman or a man? Medical mistakes are common. A nurse or doctor in an emergency situation could become legitimately confused by a patient. Basic systems are becoming dysfunctional because basic assumptions about reality are being destroyed by a culture imploding into its own footprint. The man who became confused and agitated by the question is sane. The system is insane.

How Much Does Immigration Cost?

A lot. Costly Immigration

Flesh-Easting STDs Arrive in the UK

FoxNews: ‘Flesh-Eating’ STD that causes ‘Beefy Red’ sores is spreading in UK

Cases of donovanosis — which causes thick sores that damage genital tissue — have been steadily growing in the region since 2016, and cases are expected to rise, according to data and experts cited by Birmingham Live.

I have predicted STDs and new disease outbreaks would unfold as social mood goes lower and lower. The stock market is masking how low mood has gone and if the market interventions fail, mood will fall to levels unseen since the 1930s.

Ten UK Energy Suppliers Already Bankrupt Since August

Bloomberg: Three More U.K. Power Suppliers Collapse as Energy Crisis Deepens

Igloo Energy Supply Ltd, Enstroga and Symbio Energy announced their collapse on Wednesday, taking the number of U.K. utilities that have gone under to ten in the past two months amid a broader energy crisis.

Clown Economy Comes to the UK

electrek: The British have a gas shortage, so they’re Googling electric cars like crazy

September 29 update: UK car-buying comparison website carwow reached out to Electrek today to let us know that it, too, like Carguide (see below), has experienced a huge surge in site searches for electric cars.

Compared to the previous week, carwow says EV searches increased 28% on Friday, 43% on Saturday, and 56% by Sunday September 26.

They will go from a gasoline shortage to an electricity shortage.

Red Wave 2022: UK Bellwether Says Door Open For Nationalist GOP Landslide

It may be time to get long political volatility again.

MSN: Voters flock to PM Johnson's party as Labour loses northeast bastion

Voters in an opposition stronghold turned en masse to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives, boosting his parliamentary majority on Friday despite a high COVID-19 death toll, last year's record economic slump and cronyism charges.

Conservative Jill Mortimer beat Labour's candidate in Thursday's ballot by 15,529 votes to 8,589 to take the parliamentary seat for Hartlepool, a victory once unthinkable in a northeastern English port town that for decades backed Britain's main opposition party. ...Election analysts said it was the biggest swing of votes to the governing party at a by-election since World War Two.

The victory is not a total surprise. While Laboour did win a majority in 2017, in the prior election Labour won by a pluralty. The Conservative and Brexit Party candidates combined for a majority. Thus, this result is more of a confirmation that the ongoing realignment of what was formerly called the "white working class" is solidifying. What's also fascinating is that the Labour Party hasn't been focused on governing, but on hunting down the "anti-semites" in the Labour Party itself.

Jacobin: The Labour Antisemitism Report Has Always Been a Politically Motivated Travesty

The same media outlets enabled a concerted effort to redefine “antisemitism” so that it no longer had much to do with prejudice against Jewish people and chiefly concerned attitudes toward Israel. In a final twist, they denounced anyone who questioned this rickety construct as an “antisemitism denier.” With these empirical and conceptual protocols in place, the “Labour antisemitism” narrative was a perpetual-motion device, capable of generating its own fuel for as long as Corbyn’s opponents deemed it necessary. The principal shortcoming of the Corbyn leadership in this respect was its failure to defend itself robustly, instead of offering unwarranted concessions that bought days or weeks of peace at the expense of months or years of pain. But we will search in vain for any acknowledgment of that in the EHRC report.

From earlier this year, The Guardian: Antisemitism in the Labour party was real and it must never be allowed to return

Under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, permission was given for antisemitism to spread from the fringes to the mainstream. The report specifically outlines a failure of leadership, and yet Corbyn simply could not bring himself to offer a genuine apology today. Keir Starmer made the right decision in suspending him from the party, following his shameful reaction. Corbyn’s persistent denial really left Starmer with no choice but to take this action. In doing so he has created an opportunity for the party to now move forward.

For those of us who were the targets of the relentless abuse, it was a dreadful, lonely and frightening period of our lives. In my nearly 60 years of membership of the Labour party I have lived through many ups and downs, but none as debilitating and horrible as the time spent battling antisemitism within the party. The torrent of abuse was gruesome, especially after each time I openly challenged the racism in my party. People often tie together my Jewish identity with the fact that I am a woman. So I am regularly accused of being a Zionist pig, a Tory hag, a racist shill or being a dizzy old bint who should be executed by Hezbollah.

The use of anti-semitism as a political cudgel, the reclassificaton of political opposition as anti-semitism, sure sounds an awful lot like classifying political opponents as white supremacists and insurrectionists, don't you think? What happens if the independent voters see through this lie amid economic stagnation and rising inflation? Perhaps demonizing "white working class" voters will produce an even bigger electoral backlash in the U.S. next year.

We know there was fraud in the 2000 eletion because Republicans gained in the House, but lost the White House and Senate, an odd situation. Looking to 2022, the opposition party usually adds seats in off-year elections. The baseline scenario is the GOP takes back the House and Senate given the slim Democrat majorities. Given the 2020 aftermath, it's likely the GOP would do better than baseline. Moreover, the U.S., Canada, United Kingdom and Australia continue to exibit similar political trends. It's not a huge assumption to think there is a warning for the U.S. Brexit was a signal that polls were off and Trump's candidacy was mre serious than assumed. A core Labour seat, held by Labour since it was created in 1974, swung to the other party. A similar result in the U.S. would see GOP candidates win in deep blue states such as Massachusetts, California and New York. Could it happen? It did in 1994.

The question for 2022 is whether nationalist candidates sweep the GOP primaries or if the GOPe fools enough conservatives into voting for the same old candidates. If the latter, then the GOP will likely win big, but sputter politically as the wider public and their own base rejects them. If instead the GOP moves in a geniunely new direction towards a more intelligent, coherent platform that taps into the spirit of the 2016 Trump campaign, it's possible a major political realignment is underway. The ejection of Liz Cheney from leadership, a key opponent of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and who voted for Trump's impeachment based on the January 6 blood libel, opens the door to a GOP shift.