Wacky Day

I'm mainly short via UVXY calls now. Still holding a position in TLT, started buying calls on GDX and down on those so far, but they are out in September. A capitulation sell-off should send VIX sharply higher. Otherwise, maybe I was only early on the rally and it comes in tomorrow.

Hyperbear Wednesday

I closed out all my tech shorts today, and went long, before closing out and going long fear before the close. I did take a long position in taco, but otherwise have on individual shorts. I will be looking to short other sectors if the market keeps falling.

Hyperbear Lurks

Tech recoveed today, but UVXY is finishing the day near its high. For the very short-term of days, the blue line is the level to cross for a bigger rise in VIX. Below and it could consolidate or test support again.

Here is UVXY in 2020. It bottomed in mid-January and then made a higher low. A similar pattern also emerged before Volmageddon, but only pulled back a day before breaking out. The window is open for a move, but could be a day or two away 4 to 6 weeks. Perhaps relevant is that VXX is harf to borrow right now a TD. That doesn't give a signal, but it does mean a move higher would catch a lot of people short.

Hyperbear Delayed for Taco Tuesday

Loks like the edge funds poured into tech shorts and might get run over here. Taco is looking primed for a breakout though.

Hyperbear Liftoff

Most likely this will be a multiday spike in VIX that reverses down the road because that's what normally happens. Yet, the prior touches of the line did trigger panic sell-offs. Therefore, I went very long VIX. Let's see what happens!

Hyperbear Wounded

Is this the fakeout move as part of a blow-off top? We will soon find out! Long-term support for UVXY is broken. I bought calls at the close. Click the UVXY tag to see the other Hyperbear posts. It has taken longer than I expected, but I still expect a VIX spike this month.

Long Hyperbear

Buying UVXY calls. Time to find short setups too. Expecting to buy into Friday. Break below the line reverses trade.

Hyperbear Lives

VIX was pounded on Friday. Could go either way, but if it goes up...

Hyperbear

This would be the inverse of what has transpired over the past year. VIX would have to rise to about 220 to hit that target.