Something Brewing in South Korea?

The won looks weak, with a possible major bearish breakdown in play. It only looks good versus the yen.

Long EAFE, But Maybe Not Yet

The relative turn from S&P 500 (Nasdaq) leadership to MSCI EAFE (MSCI Emerging Markets) leadership has probably started, but the first stage might still be bearish for stocks. At least it was in the 2000 and 2008 turns...

SPY-EFA Ratio Threatening Breakdown

If this rolls over and drops, it's a major signal for the markets. U.S. stock market leadership is over and it is either the start or end of the bear market.

What do you think? A new bull market is starting along with a new U.S. dollar bear market, led by non-US developed markets or a major top in the U.S. markets is about to pick up downside steam? SPY has way more tech exposure than developed markets, so if bearish, it hints at a resumption of Nasdaq leading the markets lower. If you notice the stochastics below as well, SPX-EAFE ratio bottomed in February 2000 and peaked again in October 2000. This time it peaked in December 2021 and bottomed in February 2023.

Here is EFA versus EEM for comparison. Looks like a massive base in favor of developed markets.

China's Population May Be Shrinking Faster Than Reported

Leaked Data Show China’s Population Is Shrinking Fast

Take the Quiz

Social Awareness poll: Without cheating, what was the inflation-adjusted capital gain in the US equity market for the 75 years following the 1906 peak. Recall how much wealth was created in that window.

— Dave "Rent this Space" Collum (@DavidBCollum) April 12, 2023

After checking the result, I looked up dividend yields and calculated the compounded return. Then I looked up historic dividend yields versus bond yields.

China Prints at Devaluation Speed

China Printing At Devaluation Speed

The annualized three-month growth rate of M2 money supply growth hit 24.1 percent in March. The last time it hit 24.1 percent? July 2015. The “surprise” yuan depreciation was in August 2015 under similar economic circumstances.

Everything is not the same, but the key component in this mix is the U.S. dollar...

Reclosing

Evidence continues to confirm my suspicion that China's lockdowns were hiding a recession. Industrial profits tumble

Ground Shifting Beneath the Bulls' Feet

With Twitter and Substack fighting, links cannot go between the sites. I miss the Internet of the 1990s.

Anyway, this rally is all but done here if the bears want to take it lower or the bulls gets skitting: Ground Shifting Beneath the Rally

Gold Again

Gold