Reversible Chemical Candles

More candles that scream bounce. I didn't exit my Dow position, but I probably would have lightened up if I checked this chart before close on Friday.

Support Breaks Galore

Gold hasn't broken yet. Commodities are relatively strong today, I'm down on XLE, FCX and DOW puts. I bought 1 DTE GDX puts in case gold does break though.

Visa and Mastercard look like ServiceNow because they're all in the tech sector. I'm not sure if V and MA will pull tech down, or vice versa, but it's kind of a weird sector with two stocks tied to the consumer and interest rates in with tech companies.

Open Door

The orange line marks the 52-week low in ZB. It doesn't have to break for a bear move, but a break would be more bearish for the market than a rally because a rally would signal the long-end of the bond market finally pricing in lower interest rates. It's possible stocks and bonds drop and rise together, but my expectations is bonds will lead a move higher. If bonds rally now, then stocks probably bottom in a month or so. If bonds drop now, then the final low in stocks is probably lower and closer to or into November. That is a general sense, not a hard forecast.

Technicals say bounce from oversold indicators and bearish sentiment. ES shouldn't clear 4020 and SPY $400. A move above could result in a ripping short squeeze.

If the markest break, there are bearish targets galore. These are only the few I've posted recently or noticed as I'm going through charts this AM...

DOWn

Economically sensitive chemicals companies are on the line. This trade is still a potential 18x as of today.

Use Your Imagination

Cheap crash trade. This trade will do fine as long as the market moves lower, but if it gets wild on the downside...

Salmon Jumping: Materials

Materials is a target rich environment if you buy into the deflation thesis or want to hedge it. Energy is the top pick, but some of these stocks are boring sleepers that aren't heavily traded. That makes for illiquid options, but also sometimes underpriced options. Some of the options in the materials sector are dirt cheap if you assume deflation. I skipped any chart that didn't look toppy, but the top-10 are almost all ugly. Newmont is included, even though I have calls, because it could be cut in half in a deflationary panic. Note that I expect Newmont would outperform most commodities stocks in this scenario. Purple line on IFF is a regression line for the whole chart. Individual targets after the jump.