Open Door

The orange line marks the 52-week low in ZB. It doesn't have to break for a bear move, but a break would be more bearish for the market than a rally because a rally would signal the long-end of the bond market finally pricing in lower interest rates. It's possible stocks and bonds drop and rise together, but my expectations is bonds will lead a move higher. If bonds rally now, then stocks probably bottom in a month or so. If bonds drop now, then the final low in stocks is probably lower and closer to or into November. That is a general sense, not a hard forecast.

Technicals say bounce from oversold indicators and bearish sentiment. ES shouldn't clear 4020 and SPY $400. A move above could result in a ripping short squeeze.

If the markest break, there are bearish targets galore. These are only the few I've posted recently or noticed as I'm going through charts this AM...