Dutch Govt Stealing Land for Globalist HQ?

If this proves true, the total collapse of Western governments is coming because they're almost all in on this agenda with a few exceptions such as Hungary.

Fertility Crash: Negative Mood, the Vaxx or Both?

Two tweets I saw passed around thsi weekend looked at Germany's and the Netherlands' drop in fertility.

Unless there is a vaxx and unvaxxed control group, the drop could be mainly driven by social mood. If mood is driving it, the drop will accelerate around August or September (mapping to the stock market peak rather than vaccinations) and continue sliding for at least six months.

Here are the Germany and Netherlands country ETFs. They peakedin May and August 2021, respectively.

Socionomics Alert: Civil War! In Netherlands

The headline is a little overblown, but outside of Eastern Europe which recently decommunized, the West is fracturing into pieces. Civil war, secession or failed states (unabel to enforce laws) are possible all over. The catch-22 for governments is will they impose strict rules that threaten breakdowns or back off and allow more liberty for the public. Whereever they choose more force, there is a risk of a permanent fracturing of the politics, either a longer-term polarization or a literal fracture into smaller or autonomous polities. NL Times: MPs denounce curfew riots; "Heading for civil war," Eindhoven mayor says

Mayor John Jorritsma of Eindhoven, where the riot police resorted to tear gas and water cannons to disperse rioters after an illegal protest on Sunday, called it "bizarre" what happened in his city's center. He is worried about the coming days, he said to NOS. "That's how we're heading for civil war,' he said.

For the first time, the Security Council meeting will happen in the afternoon instead of the evening, so that attendees can be home by curfew. Minister Ferdinand Grapperhaus of Justice and Security will also attend. He called the riots "simply criminal behavior", speaking to RTL Nieuws.

Far-right party FvD responded to the riots, but initially did not explicitly condemn the violence. "This is the second night that Rutte had the Netherlands locked up. More and more people are turning against the curfew. Only together can we regain our freedom," the party tweeted. When NOS published the tweet, the FvD responded with this tweet: "Another example of fake news from the NOS. FvD Naturally condemns the violence used in the protests." A spokesperson added to the broadcaster: "We thought that condemnation spoke for itself."

The illegal protests in Eindhoven and Amsterdam, arson at the Covid-19 test center in Urk, and riots elsewhere in the country had left-wing GroenLinks leader Jesse Klaver and right-wing PVV leader Geert Wilders lashing out at each other.

"Unacceptable what is currently happening in Eindhoven, in Amsterdam and especially what happened yesterday in Urk," Klaver tweeted on Sunday. "Do not forget that PVV Urk incited this violence. Unacceptable, undemocratic, and downright dangerous, intervene Geert Wilders!"

With that Klaver referred to a statement by the PVV faction in Urk last week. The faction is vehemently against the curfew and said it "will do everything in its power to ensure it is not enforced in Urk". The PVV Urk leader did call on locals to not break the law on Sunday, according to NOS.

Wilders tweeted that people must "stop it" with the violence in Eindhoven, Urk and Amsterdam. "And that of course also applies to Jesse Klaver's fur-collar friends from the Schilderswijk: get out!"

Nationalists Resurgent in Netherlands

It appears the second phase of the nationalist rise is underway, where parties on the edge of power or even completely unknown, suddenly sweep into power as the largest party. The final phase will come when they win complete control over the government.

FT: Dutch Eurosceptic party storms to victory in regional elections

An upstart Eurosceptic party that supports a Dutch exit from the EU has stormed to victory in regional elections to become the joint biggest party in the Netherlands’ upper house of parliament.

The far-right Forum for Democracy (FvD), an anti-elite party formed in 2017, swept the vote to win 12 seats in the country’s Senate, making it the joint largest party along with Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s centre-right VVD.

...“Rutte governments have left our borders wide open, letting in hundreds of thousands of people with cultures completely different to ours,” said Mr Baudet in his victory speech. “We are being destroyed by the people who should protect us.”

Until the establishment parties cease being enemies of their own people, they will continue losing by larger and larger margins. Though at this point its difficult to say they're not determined enemies of their own people, since at every opportunity to take level headed action such as slowing the flow of migration, in almost all cases they've adopted a more extremist policy.

Now we'll see if the Dutch stop the bleeding with a populist coalition or if they'll ice out the upstarts and pray that a massive multi-decade, multi-generational trend stops for some unforeseen reason.

Dutch Study Shows Diversity Lowers Economic Growth, Increases Crime, Increases Alienation

The chief economic policy of the Western establishment is mass immigration. In order to save social welfare and deeply indebted economies, it hopes more people will lead to more GDP. It also invented theories to explain how diversity will boost growth. This message is spread constantly in the press and countries that do not have mass immigration, such as Japan, are told to increase immigration for their own benefit.

The reality is the plan is a failure. It is 180 degrees at odds with reality.

A Dutch study is the latest to find diversity has either zero or a negative impact on economic growth, increases willingness to commit crime and reduces social cohesion.

De nieuwe verscheidenheid. Toenemende diversiteit naar herkomst in Nederland

These changes aren't simply the reactions of natives. They are true for all of society, including the immigrants.

Diversity and mass immigration are the main force propelling populists into power. The weak economy post-2008 is only adding fuel to the fire. Declining social mood since 2000 is not caused by diversity, but mood will fall far further than otherwise possible thanks to diversity. Alienation doesn't occur as natives vs the others, it is a sense of alienation from all of society. White Democrats and White Republicans in the USA who used to get along are increasingly polarized because diversity has caused a general sense of alienation for everyone. We are a long, long way from seeing peak polarization.The current period will be remembered as the good times.

Finally, Trump is the creation of the establishment. He can be defeated, but the forces propelling him to power cannot be unless the fundamentals are reversed. If he is defeated and his immigration policies aren't implemented, then another more powerful populist will take his place. The same is true in Italy, the UK, Germany, etc. The political establishment may think Trump, Brexit, AfD and 5-Star/Lega are lung cancer, but they are the ones doing the smoking. The establishment believes the solution to lung cancer is to go from 2 packs a day to 4 or 5 packs a day.

Dutch Election: Exit Polls

Assuming the Dutch polls are as accurate as before, it points to a big win for the ruling VVD.

No surprise looking at the stock chart, which shows a breakout to new all-time highs this year.

Turkish Social Mood Still Declining

After noticing a major head-and-shoulders pattern in iShares Turkey (TUR), I wrote: Geopolitical Forecasting Through Technical Analysis: Is Turkey About to Destabilize the Middle East? Socionomics uses financial markets as a measure of mood and the chart was saying there was a chance mood was about to go ultra-negative:

All of which is to say, I can see the Turkey ETF (TUR) hitting single digits solely through currency depreciation and financial crisis. There's enough fuel there for it. However, geopolitical developments concern because they are likely to deteriorate along with the economy. If the chart is correct, economics and politics are going to get much worse for Turkey in the months ahead. Of course, the chart might reverse and the pattern may break, making a short of TUR a bad trade and a forecast of instability a wrong one. If it doesn't, Turkey may quickly become the new center of attention in the Middle East.

I wrote that in August 2015. In the next 18 months, Turkey was involved in the downing of a Russian fighter jet, an attemped coup and the assassination of the Russian ambassador on Turkish soil.

Now Turkey is in another fight on the eve of the Dutch elections. Geert Wilders is near the top of the polls and he is critical of Islamic immigration. The current government doesn't want Turkish government officials flying into Turkey because they are whipping up support for a referendum in Turkey in support of President Erdogan. This lays bare the fact that many foreigners in the West are not assimilating and, since Erdogan is painted as anti-democratic and anti-liberal, highlights the tension between Islamic migration and the native cultures of Europe. In the past few days, the President of Turkey called the Dutch Nazis, and the Dutch PM, who is pro-Islamic immigration, called Erdogan nuts.

The Dutch government, which is set to lose about half its seats in elections this week as the anti-Islam party of Geert Wilders makes strong gains, said the ministers' visits were undesirable and it would not cooperate in their political campaigning in the Netherlands.

Erdogan warned the Netherlands that "if you can sacrifice Turkish-Dutch relations for an election on Wednesday, you will pay the price," during an awards ceremony in Istanbul. "I thought Nazism was dead, but I was wrong. Nazism is still widespread in the West," he said. "The West has shown its true face." Speaking to reporters before a public appearance in the northeastern French city of Metz, Cavusoglu said Turkey would continue to act against the Netherlands until it apologizes.

Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he would do everything to "de-escalate" the confrontation, which he described as the worst the Netherlands had experienced in years. But he said the idea of apologizing was "bizarre".

"This is a man who yesterday made us out for fascists and a country of Nazis. I’m going to de-escalate, but not by offering apologies. Are you nuts?" he told a morning talk show.

Supporting Rutte's decision to ban the visits, the Dutch government said there was a risk of Turkish political divisions flowing over into its own Turkish minority, which has both pro- and anti-Erdogan camps. It cited public order and security worries in withdrawing landing rights for Cavusoglu's flight.

Turkey fired back saying the Dutch ambassador to Ankara should not return from leave "for some time". Erdogan is looking to the large number of Turks living in Europe, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, to help secure victory next month in a referendum that would give the presidency sweeping new powers.

CNN: Protests after Netherlands bars Turkish official's plane from landing

Protests broke out in Rotterdam and in front of Dutch diplomatic missions in Turkey on Saturday after the Netherlands barred a plane carrying Turkey's foreign minister from landing to stop him from addressing a political rally in the port city.

The Dutch government announced that Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's flight permit was revoked amid concerns over public order at the expected large gathering of Turkish expatriates.

Al Jazeera: Mevlut Cavusoglu continues verbal assault on Holland

Turkey's leaders continued their verbal assault on the Netherlands on Sunday with its foreign minister accusing his NATO ally of being "the capital of fascism".

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu made the comments in France where he spoke to whip up support among Turkish immigrants for constitutional reforms to expand the powers of the Turkish presidency.

On Saturday, Cavusoglu was denied landing rights by the Netherlands, where he planned to hold a rally in Rotterdam. Holding political rallies for another country's domestic policies is illegal in Holland.

...The latest row came after NATO allies Turkey and Germany sparred over the cancellation of a series of referendum campaign events there.

"The West has clearly shown its true face in the last couple of days," Erdogan said. "What we have seen in the last days is a clear manifestations of Islamophobia."

..."The biggest problem in this case is that Turkey is talking about Turkish citizens who they want to talk to," Rutte said. "These are Dutch citizens who possibly also have voting rights in Turkey."The behavior of protestors indicate they consider themselves Turks, not Dutch, no matter what their passport may say. Protestors attack police and rioted after learning the foreign ministers would not be allowed to conduct a Turkish campaign rally on Dutch soil.

Daily Mail: Police blast protesters with water cannons in Rotterdam after Turkish ministers are refused entry to Holland, prompting Erdogan to label the Dutch 'Nazi fascists'

And then there's is Geert Wilders take on the situation, which boils down to: Turks go home.

The Dutch election is Wednesday.

Brexit Preview: Holland Votes on EU-Ukraine Policy

Breitbart: UKIP’s Nigel Farage In Amsterdam For WEDNESDAY’S Little Known Dutch EU Referendum

The referendum is only the second in the country’s recent history, and will ask members of the Dutch public if they support the EU’s 2014 association agreement with Ukraine – a document widely believed by eurosceptics to have provoked Russian action against EU expansionism.

EU officials may realize the political project is unpopular at the moment, since they didn't campaign on the issue:
Carnegie Europe: No Dutch Courage for Ukraine

If the EU believes the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement is a good thing—and already, 27 of the 28 member states have ratified it—then EU leaders should have campaigned for it ahead of the Dutch vote. The argument that this would be interfering in the internal affairs of another country is disingenuous. This is a European issue.

Not only that. Over the past few months, the no campaign has mutated from focusing on the democratic deficit in the EU to criticizing Ukraine’s endemic corruption and spreading (unfounded) fears that the accord would give Ukrainians the right to work in the EU.

Brexit supporters could get a boost from a Dutch vote against the deal, since it will show that other Europeans are opposed to the EU. Pro-EU supporters conflate the political project with Europe itself, but as Brian Monteith points out, the Dutch may shatter this illusion.

Scotsman: Brian Monteith: Dutch vote may be start of the EU’s decline

The ill-will towards detached and distant EU politicians that this ­episode generated remains and there is a strong possibility that the Dutch government, campaigning in favour of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, could lose.

If that does happen it will be noticed in the UK and cited as evidence that dissatisfaction with the European Union is not confined to the EU but is Europe-wide.

This is important for it clashes with the mythmaking of the Remain ­campaign that to feel a European, indeed to stay in Europe, you have to be in favour of the European Union and be a member.

Unrest in the Netherlands

China doesn't have a monopoly on rising social unrest.

Guardian: Thousands riot in small Dutch town over plan for asylum-seeker centre

According to national broadcaster NOS, around 2,000 people joined the protest in a town of 27,000.

A meeting of the town’s council to decide on whether to build the centre to house 1,500 asylum seekers had to be halted. A regional broadcaster showed footage of the meeting being evacuated by shouting policemen as rioters sought to force their way into the building.

In China, people protest because they don't have power and they need to get out on the street so the leaders will notice them. It isn't a threat to the regime simply to have people in the streets, even a large number around the country, if they are protesting local issues. Meanwhile in the West, there is supposed democracy. If you are angry, you vote for change. When people go into the streets in the West, especially the supposed majority groups, something is deeply wrong and the risk of regime change is far greater.

I would not worry much about labor unrest in China, though it could increase substantially in 2016. I'm be far more worried about the West when 10% of a town come out and protest the elected officials. The odds of the police joining the protesters is a real risk in the West, not so much in China.

Holland's Freedom Party Laps The Field

The ruling party in Holland is the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy. It is in a broad centrist coalition with the Labour Party. The two control 76 seats in the parliament.

Were the next election held today, Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom would win between 30 and 39 seats based on current polling (another poll result is here). The ruling party would drop to between 20 and 26 seats, with Labour falling to 10 to 13 seats. In the one poll then, the Party for Freedom would capture more seats than the two ruling centrist parties.

Historical poll. 39 virtual parliamentary seats. 26% would vote PVV now. The Dutch people want their country back! pic.twitter.com/f1DS4LIZAu

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) November 29, 2015

I expect the next country to produce a similar result will be Sweden. Swedish nationalists cheer record poll support

The nationalist Sweden Democrats’ support has risen by 5.5 percent since the last Statistics Sweden survey in May and seven percent more than in the last elections in 2014.

“I think we have the potential to become the largest party,” Sweden Democrats' party secretary Richard Jomshof told the Swedish news agency, TT, after the figures were announced.

“I am absolutely convinced that the party has benefited from the situation that has arisen in recent months, even if we do not acknowledge the situation,” he said, referring to the refugee crisis.

Elections are not scheduled until 2017 in Holland and 2018 in Sweden. The response of the establishment thus far (as it is in almost every single nation experiencing this popular revolt) is to unite against the upstart parties, fueling their rise as the only credible opposition.

Following on the Heels of India, Europe to Swing Right

Aside from the bigoted menace in the UK, France is slated to deliver an election victory to the National Front in this week's European elections.

In Finland, the True Finns are slated to pick up seats. One candidate slated to win big is Jussi Halla-aho:

On 27 March 2009, the Helsinki District Court ordered Halla-aho to trial on charges of ethnic agitation as well as breach of the sanctity of religion. The charges arose after Halla-aho posted remarks related to the sentencing of Seppo Lehto on his blog Scripta. In the course of the remarks, Halla-aho said the prophet Muhammad was a paedophile, and Islam is a religion of paedophilia, because Muhammad had intercourse with his 9-year-old wife and according to Sunnah, Mohammed's life is exemplary in every way. He also asked if it could be stated that robbing passersby and living on taxpayers' expense are cultural and possibly genetic characteristics of Somalis. This was stated in sarcastic response to a Finnish columnist who wrote that drinking excessively and fighting when drunk were cultural and possibly genetic characteristics of Finns.[31][32]

On 8 September 2009, the District Court convicted Halla-aho of disturbing religious worship, and ordered him to pay a fine of 330 euros.[33] The charge of ethnic agitation was dismissed. In October 2010 the Court of Appeal agreed with the District Court's conviction.[34] Both the prosecutor and Halla-aho appealed the case to the Supreme Court.[35] The Supreme Court granted a leave to appeal in May 2011.[36] In a sentence given on the 8 of June 2012, the Supreme Court found Halla-aho guilty of both disturbing religious worship and ethnic agitation and increased his fines accordingly.[37]

In Poland: the Polish party that wants to turn EC building in Brussels into brothel

A Polish political party whose leader has called for the restoration of Poland's monarchy, an end to universal suffrage and for the European Commission building in Brussels to be converted into a brothel is on the verge of winning seats in the European parliament.

Polls ahead of this month's European elections have put the New Right Party, led by Janusz Korwin-Mikke, on six per cent, which might be enough to secure it seven seats.

Regarded as a flamboyant eccentric, Mr Korwin-Mikke's radical views have long confined him to the far fringes of Polish politics, and his party holds no seats in the national parliament.

But it looks as if he has now tapped into a pool of anti-European sentiment in Poland that has been bolstered by an increasing number of young voters who have grown weary of the traditional order, and want an extreme alternative.

Although they are a fringe party, the leading parties in Poland are the center and right-wing parties. The right (Law and Justice) appeared headed to victory, but the situation in Ukraine changed the debate. Main parties neck-and-neck as the Polish European election enters the final straight

Also: The Polish Electoral Matrix

On the other hand, the Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS) party and other rightist parties see the current situation as a test for Western Europe that will give Poland an answer as to whether the allies’ obligations are to be fulfilled. The Polish right’s general conclusion is that only close cooperation between the Central and Eastern European countries, as presented by the late Polish president Lech Kaczyński, can save the region from Russian imperialism. The governing Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska PO) party definitely remains convinced of the benefits of EU membership. Being in the mainstream of EU integration and trying to persuade the Western partners to accept the Polish view on Ukraine are the main goals set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski.

Interestingly, security seems to dominate the EP campaign. Even Donald Tusk underlines this fact in the film that initiated the governing party’s election run. “What’s at stake during this election is security,” he says. Moreover, in his speech at the party’s EP election summit, he asked rhetorically, “Will Polish children go to schools on the first of September?” referring to the beginning of World War Two.

In Belgium: European Parliament Election: David Cameron may be forced into alliance with Europe's far-right

An alternative ally could be NVA, a separatist party pressing for Flanders to break away from Belgium, a link that would sit uncomfortably with the Tories’ fierce opposition to Scottish Nationalism.

Belgium won’t split after Sunday’s elections, but it could take a step in that direction

On May 25 Belgium will hold its regional, federal and European elections. Like in 2010, the centre-right and Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie or N-VA) is expected to be the strongest party both in Flanders and in Belgium as a whole – even though it is not part of the country’s six-party ruling coalition, led by social-democrat Elio Di Rupo. From this position of strength, the N-VA’s proposals are dominating the election debate.

The N-VA, under the decade-long leadership of Bart de Wever, stands for confederalism in the short term and independence in the long term. The party proposes that Belgium would have two autonomous entities –- Flanders and Wallonia –- and a bilingual capital, Brussels.

In Denmark: Danish Peoples Party tops poll ahead of EU elections

Following weeks of intense debate about child benefits for EU workers in Denmark, the eurosceptic and anti-immigrant Danish People's Party is now the most popular party with 27% support. It has overtaken the Social Democrats (23%) and the Liberals (21%), according to a poll by A&B Analyse for Altinget.dk.

As the graphic below shows, the far right is set to triple the turnout of the far-left. The center-right also looks set to defeat the center left. And if one considers that some left-wing parites, such as the SNP in Scotland are for independence, the tide of nationalism is stronger than it looks from the numbers.

Decline in Social Mood Drives Desire for Order; NYC Mayor's Race

One of the social policy topics for debate is the falling murder rates. There are various explanations for the causes, but one counter argument is that the hospitals have become better at saving potential murder victims. Or the police are using creative paperwork, see Assault Statistics of Hospitals and City Police Seem to Differ.

What we do know for sure is that outside of New York City, where stop and frisk is an aggressive policy targeted at mainly minority neighborhoods, aggressive police strategy (as opposed to the militarized tactics of SWAT teams) and social control have been on the decline. In one city in Europe, this is changing.

Roma family is banished to Amsterdam's 'scum' village

A ROMA family has become the first to be forcibly evicted by Dutch authorities and moved to a "scum village" constructed out of shipping containers on the outskirts of Amsterdam.

...Eberhard van der Laan, Amsterdam's mayor, admitted that the removal of the family was a draconian measure but insisted that bullying and violent behaviour had left him with no choice.

"The family has been causing problems for years and has a history of vandalism, noise nuisance and threatening behaviour," he said.

The eight members of the gypsy family have compared their container homes, numbers 48a and 48b, to a concentration camp and accused Amsterdam council of "pure racism".

...The housing camps have been nicknamed "scum villages" because their establishment follows a 2011 proposal from Geert Wilders, the leader of a populist Dutch right-wing party, for special units to deal with persistent troublemakers.

"Repeat offenders should be forcibly removed from their neighbourhood and sent to a village for scum," he argued at the time.

In America, the scum take over a neighborhood and then years later, it is "gentrified." As social mood declines, you may see more proactive policies to keep neighborhoods safe. Based on crime statistics, the charge of racism will be far greater in the United States, but perhaps you missed Mayor Bloomberg's explanation of why stop and frisk mainly targets minorities:

“One newspaper and one news service, they just keep saying, ‘Oh, it’s a disproportionate percentage of a particular ethnic group.’ That may be. But it’s not a disproportionate percentage of those who witnesses and victims describe as committing the murders,” Bloomberg said.

“In that case, incidentally, I think, we disproportionately stop whites too much and minorities too little,” the mayor said. “It’s exactly the reverse of what they’re saying. I don’t know where they went to school, but they certainly didn’t take a math course, or a logic course.”

...To buttress the mayor’s remarks, his office released a set of statistics. The numbers showed that 87% of the people stopped under stop-and-frisk in 2012 were black or Latino, and that 9% were white. That same year, more than 90% of those identified as murder suspects were blacks or Latino; just 7% were white.
Critics of stop-and-frisk charge that such numbers are irrelevant. They charge that cops indiscriminately go after young black and Hispanic men on bogus grounds, and that nearly nine out of ten people who are stopped are innocent.

See Mayor Bloomberg on stop-and-frisk: It can be argued ‘We disproportionately stop whites too much. And minorities too little’ . The policy is not designed to catch criminals. It is designed to make criminals scared, to keep them from carrying guns or other weapons, and in the process prevent murders. It is the same as the broken windows policy under Giuliani, where cops started cracking down on subway turnstile jumpers and other small offenders to send a message that there would be law and order in the city.

Ironically, a Guardian article indicates the policy works. Whether the policy is good or not is another issue, but it does appear to be meeting a demand for law and order. Mike Bloomberg's fact-free defence of stop-and-frisk

So, what about the claim that forcible stops will get guns off the streets? The fact is that only 0.2% of stops yield guns. Further, guns are more likely to be found on white suspects who are stopped, yet about 90% of the stops are of minorities. The NYPD has done much better with other operations, such as gun buy-back programs and focusing on illegal gun trafficking. Stop-and-frisk is fundamentally ineffective when it comes to getting guns off the streets.

Nearly 700,000 forcible stops of mostly minority youth – many without reasonable suspicion (the legal standard necessary for police to conduct such stops) – damage the NYPD's ability to fight crime and violence. Rather than reducing crime and violence, the practice likely alienates minority youth and prevents the people we want to communicate with police from even approaching them.

What person will trust the police officer who just forcibly stopped them? If they "see something" they are now less likely to "say something", to borrow the NYPD's public appeal.

Importantly, forcible stops may lead to minor violations such as summonses for possession of open containers of alcohol, or marijuana possession. These types of violations occur more regularly in white neighborhoods. Yet, black New Yorkers are more likely to get summonses because police are stopping them more often, resulting in criminal records which make it more difficult for them to get jobs. In this information age, such a record can be devastating to career opportunities.

If stops of whites, who are less targeted by stop-and-frisk, results in more minor violations, then it would seem stop and frisk is achieving the goal of keeping weapons off the streets. White's are less concerned about being stopped and therefore end up caught in more violations.

Judging by social mood, a win by anti-stop-and-frisk Blasio in the NYC mayoral race will be a short-lived victory as his crime policies are out of step with social mood.

de Blasio was born Warren Wilhelm in the Boston-area city of Cambridge, which is home to Harvard University. He eventually moved to New York City where he pursued the career of a bureaucrat, first at the local level, and ultimately in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

He changed his name to “de Blasio” and married former lesbian Chirlane McCray, an activist in the black feminist community. They have two children and reside in Brooklyn’s Park Slope neighborhood; once a violent ghetto, it has since been gentrified and boasts a famously cosmopolitan atmosphere.

Bill de Blasio: Pro-class war, anti-stop-question-frisk, and much more

Mood improving in Europe

The Dutch turn pro-Europe.

Pro-Europe parties lead in Dutch vote - exit polls

Dutch exit poll predicts narrow election victory for VVD party of Prime Minister Mark Rutte

For the Dutch, the elections are something of a return to normalcy after a decade of upheaval.

For the first time since the 2004 murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh by a Muslim radical, television debates and the national discussion focused on economic policies such as mortgage deductions and the retirement age, rather than Muslim integration and immigrant crime.

Dutch election

The Dutch go to the polls today.

Polls set to open in Dutch election

Wednesday's vote is shaping into a battle between the Liberal VVD party of Mark Rutte, the current prime minister, and Diederik Samsom's centre-left PvdA Labour party. But neither will be able to govern alone.

The latest opinion polls predict a middle-of-the-road coalition government involving the pro-austerity VVD and pro-stimulus PvdA will emerge after an expected 12.5 million voters cast their ballots.

Fiscally prudent Rutte's government has been allied to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while Samsom's calls for stimulus echo those of France's Socialist President Francois Hollande, elected this year on similar promises.

Analysis: Post-election Dutch may be awkward EU partners

Most important: the party positions on Greece.

Dutch Election: Party Profiles

VVD – Liberal Party: The EU should not become a “super state.” No more aid for Greece.
PvdA – Labor Party: Favors giving Greece more breathing space to meet its fiscal targets.
SP – Socialist Party: No more aid for Greece — the country’s debt should be further restructured.
PVV — Freedom Party: The Netherlands should become an independent country again, and should therefore exit the euro zone and the European Union.

Nationalist sentiment takes policy form in Europe

Falling social mood expresses itself as nationalism in Europe and it is taking policy form. For the past two years we've mainly seen increased fighting between the core European states, with countries such as Hungary implementing divergent policies. Now France and Germany are taking concrete steps (they claim temporarily) to rollback the European Union. The battle is over immigration and there's no open borders solution on the table. The two choices facing Europe are: shut the EU border to foreigners, or individual nations will shut their borders. Now we will see how much the left-wing eurocrats love their EU: will they accede to popular will on policy, or sink themselves?

A Vote of No Confidence in Europe

Germany and France are serious this time. During next week's meeting of European Union interior ministers, the two countries plan to start a discussion about reintroducing national border controls within the Schengen zone. According to the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, German Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich and his French counterpart, Claude Guéant, have formulated a letter to their colleagues in which they call for governments to once again be allowed to control their borders as "an ultima ratio" -- that is, measure of last resort -- "and for a limited period of time." They reportedly go on to recommend 30-days for the period.

Of course, using catchphrases like "ultima ratio" and "limited period of time" is supposed to make such policies sound reasonable and proportionate. After all, the reasoning goes, it's just a few occasional border controls for up to 30 days. What's the big deal, right?
But the proposal is far from harmless and would throw Europe back decades. Since 1995, the citizens of Schengen-zone countries have gotten used to freely traveling within Continental Europe. Next to the euro common currency, free movement is probably the strongest symbol of European unity. Indeed, for many people, it's what makes this abstract idea tangible in the first place.

This is the intersection between feelings of nationalism and a pan-European identity, as well as domestic versus pan-European politics. From a socionomic perspective, all choices concur with social mood: Europeans are less welcoming of foreigners. Using the falling stock markets in Europe as a proxy for social mood, in addition to EU border states such as Greece, Spain and Italy being in financial distress, odds favor this becoming policy.

Taking it one step further, the border policies become a conduit to express further nationalist sentiment because it becomes a focal point of social mood. This policy sets all against all, and the next set of policies that will come under review? Economic.

In France, Old Protectionist Idea Reawakened

The Socialist Party has embraced a form of European trade protectionism in its manifesto, a shift from its previous endorsement of globalization as a win-win proposition for French workers.

The shift matters both because the Socialists and their Green allies have a good chance of unseating the center-right president, Nicolas Sarkozy, in the election next year, and because France has a way of setting the political agenda in Europe.

Here we have a similar template. The issue isn't whether there is trade protectionism, it is whether France or the EU will implement it.

Free trade has little political constituency in France. While the seafaring British and Dutch have long been free traders, the French have a protectionist tradition reaching back at least to the 17th-century mercantilist Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Louis XIV’s finance minister.

More recently, Maurice Allais, the Nobel economics laureate, published diatribes against free trade with emerging economies until his death last year, warning that it would cause mass unemployment and depression in Europe.

Another contrarian intellectual, the demographer Emmanuel Todd, is campaigning for European protectionism and an exit from the euro, saying the loss of jobs would otherwise tear French society apart.

This isn't a question of if, but when. Social mood favors a rollback of current free trade policies because like many other policies, they reached peak excess during the 1990s run-up to peak social mood.

Dutch prime minister says government austerity talks collapse

The ruling Dutch minority government was on the brink of collapse Saturday after anti-EU lawmaker Geert Wilders torpedoed seven weeks of austerity talks, saying he would not cave in to budget demands from “dictators in Brussels.”

New national elections that will be a referendum on the Netherlands’ relationship with Europe and its ailing single currency are now all-but-certain.

...Once considered one of Europe’s strongest economies, the Netherlands is suffering from high levels of personal debt, mostly mortgage related.

Netherlands has the will and a solid reason to take an anti-EU and anti-euro position. Since there are no snap elections, there's time for Wilders to benefit from falling social mood and win a victory that could shock Europe.


H/T: Mish Shedlock.