Global Cooling

'We are at an historic moment in time when earth’s climate is about to change in dramatic and unthinkable ways. We are seeing a rare symmetry and synchronicity of natural weather cycles all pointing in the same phase and direction for the first time since the early 1600’s'

The above is part of a Twitter thread excerpted from a special report, available here from Hackett Financial Advisors.

The trick with global cooling is that it's far more volatile than warming. For all the apocalyptic forecasts, warming has many positive benefits. Global cooling on the other hand, could wreck agricultural output because the climate will rapidly shift. I haven't dug into research yet, but I wonder if as an example, fertilizer would underperform because demand would collapse as the area of arable land shrinks. Ice breakers may be needed for rivers such as the Hudson in New York and the Thames in London. Snow plow fleets will be needed in the Southern U.S., energy demand for heating would soar.

Chinese Demand Fruit Freedom as Prices Soar

Caixin: Fruit Prices Spike in China on ‘Extreme Weather’

“I spent two-thirds of the money I made today on these,” an internet user wrote online while posting a photo of a handful of strawberries and cherries that she had bought. “When can I have fruit freedom?”

The phrase “fruit freedom” — or the ability to buy as much fruit as one wants — became a buzzword in China’s online lexicon following a surge in fruit prices over the last month or so.

Warmists Rushing to Pass New Rules Before Science Wrecks Theory

The Nation (Thailand): New studies flip climate-change notions upside down

Scientists at the Climate and Environmental Physics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Berne in Switzerland have recently backed up theories that support the sun's importance in determining the climate on Earth. A paper published last year by the American Meteorological Society contradicts claims by IPCC scientists that the sun couldn't be responsible for major shifts in climate. Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, rejected IPCC assertions that solar variations don't matter. Among the many studies and authorities she cited was the National Research Council's recent report "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate".

Other researchers and organisations are also predicting global cooling - the Russian Academy of Science, the Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of Scientists, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism Russia, Victor Manuel Velesco Herrera at the National University of Mexico, the Bulgarian Institute of Astronomy, Dr Tim Patterson at Carleton University in Canada, Drs Lin Zhen at Nanjing University in China, just to name a few.

For now nevertheless, the IPCC and other authoritative agencies are sticking to their CO2-dominant climate-forcing theory. They attribute the cold spells to a disruption in the jet stream caused by Anthropogenic Global Warming. Some of their theories have heads being scratched, for instance the "pause" in global warming they attribute to heat being absorbed deep into the oceans. When Antarctic ice reached record levels in 2013, scientists were "baffled" because the water beneath the ice was warm, they claimed. In climate science old and new, nothing is certain.

The CO2 models are not predictive, but goal-seeked. As new information comes in, the models are changed to account for it, while still maintaining CO2 emissions as the dominant factor in climate change. It may also be the case that the NOAA is changing the temperature record to fit the models, rather than vice versa. By the time this is fully exposed, the amount of money that may have been stolen from the public could run into the trillions, plus trillions more in lost economic output.

Uncontrolled Thermonuclear Explosion Responsible for Warming and Cooling

Guardian: Weak sun could offset some global warming in Europe and US – study

Global warming in northern Europe and the eastern US could be partially offset in future winters because of the sun entering a weaker cycle similar to the one which enabled frost fairs to take place on the river Thames in the 17th and 18th century, according to new research.

However, the study said any potential weakening in solar activity would have only a small effect on temperature rises at a worldwide level, delaying the warming caused by emissions from cars, factories and power plants by around two years.

The fighting withdrawal begins.

Globally, a grand solar minimum would reduce temperatures by just 0.1C between 2050 and 2099. Manmade climate change, by contrast, is expected to bring temperature rises of up to 6.6C in the same period if drastic action is not taken to cut carbon emissions.

There's a high probability of at least 0.1C cooling if the astrophysicists are right and possibly more if the more dire solar cycle forecasts are correct. Climate computer model forecasts haven't had predictive success yet. And cooling is far more dangerous than warming.

Year Without a Summer

The year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer (also the Poverty Year, the Summer that Never Was, Year There Was No Summer, and Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death[1]), because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F).

Evidence suggests the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia), the largest eruption in at least 1,300 years. The Earth had already been in a centuries-long period, since the 14th century, of global cooling known today as the Little Ice Age, which itself caused considerable agricultural distress in Europe as a whole during its onset; the Little Ice Age's existing cooling was solely as a potentially aggravating factor, as the eruption of Tambora occurred during the Little Ice Age's concluding decades.

If the Sun were to enter another long cycle of weaker output, carbon levels might start falling to dangerously low levels, threatening plant survival (on a windless day, a cornfield will consume 50% of the available CO2). Scientists in 50 or 100 years may be worried about mass plant extinction and the need to pump CO2 into the atmosphere. They might advocate drilling oil wells and setting them on fire. No more insane (from today's perspective) than their plan to pour coal all over the South Pole in the 1970s in order to heat the planet and melt the ice cap.

Newsweek Global Cooling

The Quiet Sun: Winter Is Coming

The sun is now virtually blank during the weakest solar cycle in more than a century

The sun is almost completely blank. The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. The sun's X-ray output has flatlined in recent days and NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of strong flares in the next 24 hours. Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and the current nearly blank sun may signal the end of the solar maximum phase.

Weak Solar Activity Points to Cooler Climate

*The sun has gone quiet again during the weakest solar cycle in more than a century*

For the past 5 days, solar activity has been very low and one measure of solar activity – its X-ray output – has basically flatlined in recent days (plot below courtesy NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center). Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and today the sun is virtually spotless despite the fact that we are still in what is considered to be its solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.

Arrest Climate-Change Deniers
Italian scientists convicted for 'false assurances' before earthquake

The Precious

The last chart shows major market tops have occurred within months of a solar cycle peak. The current cycle peaked in February/March 2014.

Link: 10 Indicators Cross-Referenced

Nuclear Fireball in Sky Is Cooling

Hundred-year period of increased solar activity coming to end

The engine of the space climate is the sun, which exerts is influence on its environment by emitting light and releasing solar wind, a stream of charged particles. Now a 100-year period of heightened solar activity is coming to an end.

......"Even though we study the sun extensively there's still much that we don't understand about it."

Changes in solar activity are generally thought to have only a minor impact on the climate on Earth.

Recent studies have, however, shown that changes to the solar cycle affect the weather in the North Atlantic as during the years of strong solar winds larger numbers of space particles enter the atmosphere where they can break up the ozone layer. This causes temperatures to rise in Northern Europe.

So far, solar activity has only been linked to the variation taking place during the 11-year solar cycles and studies do not yet provide answers to questions on how solar activity affects global warming.

I'm going with the historical record until there's an explanatory model that accounts for the Sun.

The Quiet Sun

The sun has gone quiet…solar cycle 24 continues to rank as one of the weakest cycles more than a century

The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase. For this reason, many solar researchers are calling this current solar maximum a “mini-max”.

......There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.

Outlook

The increasingly likely outcome for an historically weak solar cycle continues the recent downward trend in sunspot cycle strength that began over twenty years ago during solar cycle 22. If this trend continues for the next couple of cycles, then there would likely be more talk of another “grand minimum” for the sun. Some solar scientists are already predicting that the next solar cycle, #25, will be even weaker than this current one. However, it is just too early for high confidence in these predictions since some solar scientists believe that the best predictor of future solar cycle strength involves activity at the sun’s poles during a solar minimum and the next solar minimum is still likely several years away.

Global Cooling: NASA Faked Temperature Data

NOAA/NASA Dramatically Altered US Temperatures After The Year 2000

Prior to the year 2000, NASA showed US temperatures cooling since the 1930′s, and 1934 much warmer than 1998.

Right after the year 2000, NASA and NOAA dramatically altered US climate history, making the past much colder and the present much warmer. The animation below shows how NASA cooled 1934 and warmed 1998, to make 1998 the hottest year in US history instead of 1934. This alteration turned a long term cooling trend since 1930 into a warming trend.

Click through to see it. NOAA/NASA Dramatically Altered US Temperatures After The Year 2000

Why did government scientists lie about the warming trend? What has been the point of going on 15 years of propaganda, with scientists and science journals increasingly turning up their authoritarian streak? Socionomics is likely part of the answer.

This is also quite an amazing result. I expected man-made global warming "science" to fail because their computer models are at least as bad as the 2007 risk models on Wall Street that assumed housing prices never go down. A computer model can only be trusted if its predictions are accurate. When the models constantly fail, it means something is wrong with the assumptions in the model (or reality is too complex to model). Below you can see the deviation in the models from the actual trend in temperature.

The irony is that in their attempt to support the anthropogenic global warming theory, they may have inadvertently sabotaged it since the computer modelers may have been using bad data. Either way, another blow for politicized science.

One Word: Nuclear

The emission caps were meaningless in Kyoto since most countries broke them. China may be agreeing to this because it sees it as an empty gesture to the Western governments.

The other explanation is that China believes it is ahead of the curve on nuclear power generation. It takes years of planning to build nuclear power stations and it will also take years of intense research to make a breakthrough in thorium reactors. If China is confident it is in the lead, it may have a permanent economic advantage for decades and with carbon caps it place, economic competitors will be unable to ramp up energy production using fossil fuels, and even if they do, they still may be unable to match on cost. As the Germans are finding out, energy is a cost just like labor. If the gap is large enough, the factories move to the source of cheap energy.

Carbon caps will have the same impact as carpet bombing your competitor's industrial base if the competitor does have a cheap alternative energy source. The West is building expensive energy. The U.S. has cheap energy at the moment, but plans to export this advantage away.

China considering cap on greenhouse gas pollution

China, the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is considering plans to set an absolute cap on its carbon dioxide emissions from 2016, a top government adviser said.

The target will be written into China's next five-year plan, which comes into force in 2016, He Jiankun, the chairman of China's Advisory Committee on Climate Change, told a conference in Beijing.

"The government will use two ways to control carbon dioxide emissions in the next five-year plan, by intensity and an absolute cap," said He, a former vice-president at Tsinghua University.

......Despite the absolute cap on carbon dioxide, He told the conference that China's greenhouse gas emissions would only peak in 2030, at around 11 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent. Emissions now stand at between 7 billion to 9.5 billion tonnes.

This scenario would depend on China achieving a real reduction in coal consumption from sometime between 2020 or 2025 and on the nation meeting its target of having 150-200 gigawatts of nuclear power capacity by 2030.

AGW Epic Fail

The tide has been turning against man-made global warming, but the advocates of the theory powered full speed ahead into a PR nightmare.

Finding Climate Change

It will be interesting to see if the scientists, led by one Chris Turney, is capable of observing that the climate has indeed changed now that the Chinese icebreaker, Snow Dragon, was unable to even get within five miles of the trapped ship. One would assume that if it was possible to reach the camp by sea one hundred years ago, but the camp is no longer accessible due to the expanding ice cap, the obvious conclusion is that the climate has changed for the colder.

I'm afraid it is unlikely, though. One hallmark of modern science is its amazing ability to ignore any observations that don't confirm its hypotheses. The failed mission to the South Pole is only the latest embarrassment for climate science, and appears that more embarrassments will follow because the climate scientists don't seem inclined to abandon their insistence that the Earth is getting warmer no matter how cold it gets.

Global warming scientists forced to admit defeat... because of too much ice: Stranded Antarctic ship's crew will be rescued by helicopter

The expedition is being lead by Chris Turney, a climate scientist, who was hoping to reach the base camp of Douglas Mawson, one of the most famous Antarctic explorers, and repeat observations done by him in 1912 to see what impact climate change had made.

It is thought that the group, which includes scientific researchers and a journalist, will now be able to escape by air after two sea rescues failed.
Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis was unable to reach them because it was not strong enough to break through.

A top-of-the-range Chinese icebreaker, the Snow Dragon ('Xue Long'), was deployed earlier in the week, and hoped to reach the ship by saturday.
However just after midnight on Friday it too got stuck just six nautical miles from the ship.

Scientists trapped in Antarctic ice await dramatic helicopter rescue after week spent ‘singing with the seals’

After a series of rescue efforts repeatedly thwarted by blizzards, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s Rescue Centre announced early Thursday local time that weather had sufficiently cleared to allow a Chinese helicopter aboard the icebreaker vessel Xue Long to pick up the 52 passengers. The rescue promised to be a “complex operation involving a number of steps” and dependent on weather, the rescue centre said.

......But the Australasian Antarctic Expedition, which sought to retrace the steps famous Australian Antarctic geologist Douglas Mawson tread 100 years ago to see how the landscape had changed, was also mocked by climate-change deniers making hay of the fact that a group of researchers devoted to tracking global warming would get stuck in ice they claim is melting.

Solar Maximum at 100 Year Lows

Temperature doesn't change along with solar output because the climate system is very complex. That said, I'm betting that the Sun's weak activity foretells a longer period of low output that will eventually effect the temperature.

Sun's Current Solar Activity Cycle Is Weakest in a Century

Our star is now at "solar maximum," the peak phase of its 11-year activity cycle. But this solar max is weak, and the overall current cycle, known as Solar Cycle 24, conjures up comparisons to the famously feeble Solar Cycle 14 in the early 1900s, researchers said.

"None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle. So we will learn something," Leif Svalgaard of Stanford University told reporters here today (Dec. 11) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

I'm not a scientist, but when choosing between which climate arguments make the most sense, I lean towards the guys who place greater importance on the thermonuclear fireball in the sky.

Russian Scientists say period of global cooling ahead due to changes in the sun

According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries.

....“Journalists say the entire process is very simple: once solar activity declines, the temperature drops. But besides solar activity, the climate is influenced by other factors, including the lithosphere, the atmosphere, the ocean, the glaciers. The share of solar activity in climate change is only 20%. This means that sun’s activity could trigger certain changes whereas the actual climate changing process takes place on the Earth”.

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

The most important statement in that snip is the one about journalists. Thanks to the Internet we have the ability to read original source material, blogs written by experts in their field, amateurs with extensive knowledge but no academic pedigree, which allows us to go beyond the simplistic reporting by journalists. Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) remains the popular theory among climate scientists (not astrophysicists), journalists, government and the general public, but the evidence for at least a cooling effect from the Sun is very strong.

Still Few Sunspots

Strange Doings on the Sun

Based on historical records, astronomers say the sun this fall ought to be nearing the explosive climax of its approximate 11-year cycle of activity—the so-called solar maximum. But this peak is "a total punk," said Jonathan Cirtain, who works at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration as project scientist for the Japanese satellite Hinode, which maps solar magnetic fields.

"I would say it is the weakest in 200 years," said David Hathaway, head of the solar physics group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.

Sunspot activity is roughly correlated with temperatures.

To complicate the riddle, the sun also is undergoing one of its oddest magnetic reversals on record.

Normally, the sun's magnetic north and south poles change polarity every 11 years or so. During a magnetic-field reversal, the sun's polar magnetic fields weaken, drop to zero, and then emerge again with the opposite polarity. As far as scientists know, the magnetic shift is notable only because it signals the peak of the solar maximum, said Douglas Biesecker at NASA's Space Environment Center.

But in this cycle, the sun's magnetic poles are out of sync, solar scientists said. The sun's north magnetic pole reversed polarity more than a year ago, so it has the same polarity as the south pole.

"The delay between the two reversals is unusually long," said solar physicist Karel Schrijver at the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center in Palo Alto, Calif.

The Effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Sunspots on Earth’s surface temperature – Global Cooling predicted?

The reality is the climate models are way off and getting worse with each passing year, all with bias towards greater warming. Something is having a cooling effect on the climate and the models don't account for it. With billions of dollars of government research backing them and a need to justify carbon taxes, the scientists may have done what they did in other fields: they've cooked up what their paymasters ordered.

20 Years of Global Cooling Possible

Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.

According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’.

Curry and Wyatt say they have identified a climatic ‘stadium wave’ – the phenomenon known in Britain as a Mexican wave, in which the crowd at a stadium stand and sit so that a wave seems to circle the audience.

Huge Growth In Arctic Ice Sheet Traps Sailors

One of the ideas in socionomics is that magical thinking rises during periods of negative social mood. I always thought that was a negative, as in people rejecting science for superstition. But increasingly I believe this is actually a positive because it is a reaction to over reliance on science, corruption of science, and the failure of science. In Antifragile, Nassim Taleb makes some strong anti-scientific arguments, while being pro-religion pro-philosophy. He makes the case that religion can save patients from iatrogenic illness, that is harm caused by doctors. It is also the case with climate science, where grand claims were made by scientists and now those claims are being shown to be false, or at least far less strong than originally argued.

At the grand supercycle top, many of the traits that fall under positive social mood have become negatives to the point where negative social mood will lead to greater progress. This is why the script flips during the bearish/negative mood phase. The corrective waves of positive social mood will pull society back towards the extremist policies of peak social mood, while negative social mood waves will see society progress culturally. In science, the political corruption of the field will be wiped out as money is drained from the sector, leaving the science to the scientists as the politicians and money chasers leave. The whole climate change episode will become a great stain upon science which will be referenced in future to teach young scientists how to conduct science in an ethical manner.

And now for the latest sign that global cooling, not warming, is on the way:
And now it's global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year


My favorite part of the article:

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

....The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.

The article goes on to discuss the growing scientific evidence for a period of cooling, rather than warming, with some scientists arguing climate models have too much weight on the effects of carbon dioxide.

Sunspots and Global Cooling

Global warming ended in the late 1990s and temperatures stagnated before moving lower in the past few years. If temperature correlates with sunspot activity, we may be near the peak in temperature and headed for a very cold back end of the 2010s.

Here is one paper on the current solar cycle 24 (from 2010):

The incipient cycle 24 will probably mark the end of the Modern Maximum, with the Sun switching to a state of less strong activity. It will therefore be an important testbed for cycle prediction methods and, by inference, for our understanding of the solar dynamo.

How have predictions for a weak solar cycle been panning out?

The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

This solar cycle is shaping up to be even less active than the 1970s.

This is a picture of days above freezing at the Artic circle this year. Green is the average, red line is this year.

Source: Unprecedented July Cold Ends The Arctic’s Shortest Summer On RecordOnly 45 days above freezing this summer, half of a normal summer.

Global Warming Scientists Go Full Retard

Rise in violence 'linked to climate change'

US scientists found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall correlated with a rise in assaults, rapes and murders, as well as group conflicts and war.

The team says with the current projected levels of climate change, the world is likely to become a more violent place.

Violence is going higher no matter the temperature because social mood is in decline.

There is some correlation between weather and Elliot Wave and other cycle theories because before the industrial revolution, life revolved around agriculture.

More simply, armies don't like to fight in the winter. People are far less likely to go out of doors and riot in winter. Witness Occupy Wall Street, which disappeared as soon as the temperature dropped.

Finally, I would bet on an opposite correlation in future, in terms of major wars. It is global cooling that threatens crop output, and global cooling will increase energy demand. Global cooling will increase scarcity and exacerbate economic stagnation in the developed world.

Compare the climate models to the data

Background behind the chart is here: STILL Epic Fail: 73 Climate Models vs. Measurements, Running 5-Year Means

Chinese Academy of Sciences Approves AGW Skeptics Report

CHINA TRANSLATES 1,200-PAGE REBUTTAL TO CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA

The volumes, Climate Change Reconsidered and Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report, are chock full of 1,200 pages of peer-reviewed data concerning the veracity of anthropogenic climate change. Together, they represent the most comprehensive rebuttal of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change findings, which have been the basis of the climate change legislation movement across the planet.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences is set to present the publication on June 15 at a major ceremony in Beijing. The Academy employs approximately 50,000 people and hosts 350 international conferences each year, and is one of the most prestigious scientific academies in the world, ranked ahead of every Ivy League school save Harvard

That is the only nail needed to seal the coffin on the Kyoto Treaty and other global climate initiatives.