What If the Rally Aborts

If this rally fades quickly, it's almost time to be shorting again. That Tesla is up almost 8 percent at the moment tells me this market still doesn't get it.

Reloading for Bears

These are relatively massive inverted H&S patterns that could produce roughly 7 percent rallies in the NQ and RTY. Neither rally would invalidate the bear market, in fact a rally of that magnitude would produce a perfect analog with the 2008 top: a rally back to the 200-day moving average. This one would be larger because the decline in small caps is larger, but that may speak to this being a bear market of larger magnitude.

Still No Taper: Fed Buys 98 55 Billion in February

Update: I don't know if I typed a number wrong or if they changed the data. A couple years ago I'd be confident it was my error. In any event, the Fed did reduce buying to $55 billion as of the third week in February. There is still one week left of February data. They were only supposed to buy about $30 billion. Still more than they've said, but it is less than the near $100 billion...

Original post from February 25:

I'm not counting the week ending February 2 as being in February, so it's only three weeks of buying. It's all done in plain sight. The Fed is the greatest cause of uncertainty in the market. Will they pull the rug out from the markets and actually cut asset buying from their $100 billion pace since November, or will they keep buying $100 billion per month forever? They've lied for four straight months now. Why should we expect the truth anymore? Is there a single reporter out there with the guts to ask this question? No, because if they ask it, that will end their career reporting on the Federal Reserve. USG is a weak, corrupt, failed state. It's ruling class populated by weak, corrupt, morally vile people who range from warmongers to pedophiles at the extremes.

Pattern Check: EPAM

This pattern is all over the market. The trick is finding the stocks like EPAM that plunge when they lose support.
Here is EPAM (blue) layered over POOL.

NQ Bounced at January 24 Low

The lower horizontal marks the January 24 low. I know I said ignore the news and that is generally the best idea, but since the Ukraine invasion produced a low, my suspicion is any news of a ceasefire or deal will produce a high. Technicals take precedence, but a combination of a technical resistance level and peace in Ukraine will probably refocus the market on what's driving the bear: monetary policy and its inflationary impact. Crude oil remains the key, along with bonds. Outisde of technical bounces on the stock indexes, nothing constructive has happened for bulls.

Charity for the Misled: Covid is Over

Social media has become toxic for two reasons. One is intentional. "Triggering" people is an effective technique for driving engagement. Has been the case long before social media. Controversial people and topics attract eyeballs. The other is social mood. It's negative and people like fighting. Mix it together and the toxic stew that is Twitter and Facebook emerges.

The people in the video, the people they represent, are not your enemy. They were misled by the media, government and institutions. They were lied to, they were terrorized. They are probably still terrorized by fake threats such as climate change, systemic racism and Russian invasions. Now is the time to wake up some people who are realizing they've been lied to. And even if they don't change their mind on topics, they may at least realize they were and are led by liars and psychological abusers. For those who don't change, of course they deserve no respect in the realm of politics. They will parrot whatever is the next lie. But one should take this opportunity to wake more people up, rather than continue a futile battle against people who have no tangible influence on policy.


Vaxxes Trigger Acute Hepatitis

Immune-mediated hepatitis with the Moderna vaccine, no longer a coincidence but confirmed
To the Editor:

e have read with interest the recent cases suggesting the possibility of vaccine-induced immune-mediated hepatitis with Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccines for the SARS-CoV-2 virus.[1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7] However, as the cohort of vaccinated individuals against COVID-19 increases, the previously reported cases could not exclude a coincidental development of autoimmune hepatitis, which has an incidence of 3/100,000 population per year.8 Our case demonstrates conclusive evidence of vaccine-induced immune-mediated hepatitis with a rapid onset of liver injury after the first Moderna dose, which on re-exposure led to acute severe autoimmune hepatitis.

Housing Policy Easing Expected in China

Caijing: 多地降低首付比例 楼市“小阳春”仍难再现
In order to repair the sluggish real estate market, local governments and financial institutions have successively introduced various easing policies from the end of 2021 to the present. In recent days, a bigger stimulus than lowering personal home loan interest rates has been unfolding in some cities.

On February 25, Jinzhong, Shanxi Province lowered the down payment ratio for second-home provident fund loans to 20%; on February 18, Nanning, Guangxi lowered the minimum down payment ratio for second-home provident fund loans from 40% to 30%.

Not long ago, Jinzhong, Heze, Nanning and other cities also lowered the down payment ratio for the first home loan.

"Financial Eleven" statistics found that in this round of adjustment, the first to introduce policies to reduce the down payment ratio of housing loans are basically low-level cities below the third and fourth tiers. Most of the adjusted down payment ratio for the first house can be reduced to 20%, and the down payment ratio for the second house is mostly concentrated at 20%-40%.

According to incomplete statistics from the China Index Research Institute, from December 2021 to now, more than 40 cities in China have regulated the real estate market in terms of reducing the down payment ratio, increasing talent introduction, granting housing subsidies, and increasing the amount of provident fund loans.

Many interviewed experts believe that more cities may introduce similar policies in the future, but first-tier and strong second-tier cities will most likely not follow suit. The restoration of the real estate market is affected by multiple factors. After the introduction of one or two policies, the market will not improve immediately. It is unlikely that a "little spring" will appear nationwide in March and April this year.

...Taking Heze as an example, according to the data of the China Index Research Institute, since June 2021, the sales of commercial residential buildings in Heze have experienced a year-on-year decline for eight consecutive months, and in the second half of 2021, they will fall by 45% year-on-year; in January 2022, the price of new houses in Heze will fall by 0.5% year-on-year. , second-hand housing prices fell 2.7% year-on-year.

The downturn in the real estate market has led to a decline in the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land. According to data from the 58 Real Estate Research Institute, the scale of land transfer fees in Heze in 2018 was about 24 billion yuan, while the figure in 2021 was only 6.7 billion yuan.

At the same time, Heze's local finance is increasingly dependent on land transfer income.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of state-owned land transfer revenue in Heze to the general fiscal revenue increased rapidly from 21%-34% in 2012-2015 to 53%-64% in 2017-2020. The national average for 2020 is just 31%.

Local govermnents still rely on land sales for financing infrastructure investment plans.

Killing Ukraine: It's a Gas

Who wins? American LNG exporters. Who loses? American consumers and American workers. They will pay more for natural gas as it is bid away by Europe at higher prices. Also, American valued-added industries such as fertilizer and chemicals will also suffer as prices rises. Low natural gas prices had shfited production and investment in new plant & equipment into the U.S. The U.S. still has an advantage, but it will shrink as gas prices converge with world markets.

Go And Build

Buckminister Fuller once said that “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

If we are going to win—and we are going to win—we must work together towards the common goal of building parallel Christian systems that are beyond the influence and control of the existing demonic ones.

Parallel systems can only work if they are built on the firm foundation of our faith in Jesus Christ and the Truth of God’s Word, the very same foundation that the United States of America itself was founded upon.

...We have always and will continue to overcome the advances of the Enemy.

Imagine being among the first group of Christians after Christ’s resurrection who spent forty years preaching the Gospel waiting while those practicing the Old Covenant law mocked them. We can’t even comprehend the persecution they faced in order to defend and spread the Gospel. Many ended up giving their lives for it.

This group of Christians is the most inspiring to me because they had to have the most faith of all. In Luke 21:6 Jesus prophesied about the Temple that “not one stone would be left on another, every one of them will be thrown down.”

For forty years that didn’t happen and a generation of Christians had to patiently wait and have faith that what Christ said would come true. Then in 70 AD, it did happen, just as he said it would, and that Temple was absolutely annihilated. Almost 2,000 years later it’s still not standing despite multiple attempts throughout history to rebuild it. 1 Corinthians 3:16 tells us that WE are the Temple of God and that the Spirit of God dwells within us.

This is the enormous amount of faith that we need to have today. We need to be in this for the long haul. We need to be willing, like the very first followers of Christ, to have an entire lifetime of faith.

Christians are not revolutionaries.

We are reformers. We do not destroy things, we build and create them, mirroring our Creator. God will handle the destruction of our wicked and corrupt global regime, in fact I think He’s already started.

If we are going to save our country we must adopt a mindset of seven generations thinking.

Previous generations, including my own, have lived in the moment for themselves.

We must learn from this mistake.

Short term pleasure at the expense of longterm pain for our kin is unsustainable. We must be the ones who are willing to put in the work to build a Christian future not only for our children and our children’s children, but for Christendom as a whole. Now is the time for us to build.

Full text: GAB: Go And Build

Video (audio is not great): Andrew Torba: Builders for the Kingdom of God

Bulls Must Try Harder: Market Most Oversold Since March 2020

Open charts in a new window for the largest view. First up is a chart I saw on social media: most oversold since March 2020. The second chart goes back to 2000 to include all the major corrections and the bear markets. Spoiler: BPISPX has gone lower in all the major corrections and went way lower, with multiple low readings, during the bear markets.

Absense of evidence is not evidence of absense, but I find it telling that I keep seeing cherry-picked sentiment charts from bulls.

Primary Bear Trend Intact

The primary difference between the 2000 and 2008 tops and the corrections since 2008 is their shape, which is made clear by the 10-month/200-day moving average. All the corrections going back to the late 1990s ones show a similar spike down. In nearly all cases, the bulk of selling occurred within a single month of trading. After losing the moving average, the index was back above by the third month. The 2000 and 2008 tops were different. While they did start with a sell-off, it was a modest one compared to the corrections. The 10-month moving average was tested and then failed. The moving average would not be meaningfully recovered until the new bull market was underway.
The S&P 500's 200-day moving average is at 4460. Ideally, the market would pop about 1.7 percent on Monday or maybe by Tuesday, then roll over. There's some wiggle room though. The 4500 to 4600 area allows for about a 5 percent rally before coming up against the topping pattern. 

The sharp correction in the Nasdaq in 2000 did produce a bounce above its moving average. For the Russell 2000 Index today, it would take a 10-percent rally just to get back to the 200-day moving average.
A meaningful bounce that also crushes the VIX is the best setup for bears since it would allow for a break to new lows with cheap options entry. The 200-day moving average is also very slow moving, so it could set up yet a larger bounce up to the average before rolling over "for good" later this year.

If you experienced the 2008 bear market, you may remember that even after Bear Stearns failed and there were clear signs of trouble in the housing market, many investors thought it was only a blip. Everyone was terrified of inflation with oil hitting $150 per barrel in June. Barron's did a cover story on the financial trouble at Fannie and Freddie in mid-August: The Endgame Nears For Fannie and Freddie. All the pieces were coming together, but most investors went into September near fully invested. Then panic set in. The 2000 top was also a slow rollover. Tech blew up first, but everyone was buying the dip because their valuations were anchored at the high valuations. It wasn't until September 2000 that the major indexes finally kicked into selling gear. Defensive sectors would hold out into November and December, with consumer staples peaking in December. See my post calling the top in mid-December: The Bear Pill. Defensive stocks have again proven a haven, with some even hitting all-time highs last week. This is not signaling an intact bull market, rather it signals that there is a clear shift in investor thinking and capital flows.


Spike Protein Encoded in Genome

Intracellular Reverse Transcription of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2 In Vitro in Human Liver Cell Line

I haven't seen evidence of this being a threat to health, but it's one more piece of evidence arguing, "Maybe we should have tested these experimental vaccines instead of making hundreds of millions of people the experiment."

This also will put more wind into the sails of the Pureblood movement.

Why Was Ukraine Destroyed?

What was the purpose of destroying Ukraine? I'm totally opposed to war with Russia over Ukraine, as well as instigating it in the first place by pushing a false idea of Ukraine joining NATO. Yet, what was the point? The Baizuo regime completely folded on all their threats. There are precisely zero meaningful sanctions on Russia. It is a flawless victory by Russia in the near-term.

Up Up and Away

Pullback risk after such a run, but I wouldn't be surprised if 4420 at least is coming.
The key remains crude and by extension, bonds. Crude has been pulling back. A deeper correction will ease inflation fears and keep the bid on the Nasdaq and the BigTech stocks that dominate the S&P 500 Index.


How Long Until Inflation Dies?

Alhambra: A Year Later, The Fact Fedwire Is Still There Tells Us Why Markets Have Done What They've Done
It was around 11:15 in the morning, Eastern Time, an otherwise totally nondescript Wednesday when something went wrong deep inside the computerized guts of the domestic interbank settlement system. No single thing, these settlement processing arrangements are interlocking sets of algorithmic-heavy progressions linking banks, financial markets of very kind, and trillions in volume every day for every possible money and financial purpose.

It was like someone just up and pulled the plug on something called Fedwire. The cascading failure eventually took down or restricted access to another 14 additional services, from FedCash and FedLine to Check 21, even a multiple of tied-in cryptocurrency exchanges such as CoinBase and Kraken were left scrambling by serious processing delays.

What happened?

To this day, no one has actually offered a complete explanation. Or much of one. Officials at the Federal Reserve, Fedwire’s operators, have only said it was some unspecified “operational error.”

A year ago, there was a great disturbance in the financial system. ARKK peaked less that two weeks earlier on February 16.
For the curve to suddenly stop steepening, and then move – for an entire year (tomorrow) – back the wrong way is a substantial and substantially unwelcome development. CPIs to the moon, tapering QE, double taper, now aggressive rate hikes, the world public convinced of a massive wave of inflation, yet for all this time in between flat, flatter, so flattened that just a few days ago parts of the curve nearly inverted (the 7s and 10s have touched on a few occasions now).
It still looks like the worst phase of inflation is coming after a deflationary event. I have been focused in on the stock market because whether by inflation or deflation, stocks were primed for a major correction or bear market.


Support Bounces

Apple at 200-day. FDX, BTC. Many more, but some big ones. Anecdotally, fear peaked among the dumb money. My guess is most bulls sold out over the past few days, if not this morning. I doubt many bought today's dip, which was likely driven by short covering. Buying will come later, if at all, setting up the next mvoe lower. Nothing has been solved with respect to inflation or the Federal Reserve's policies. As with omicron, Russia is a distraction. The market is rallying today for technical reasons. Bulls will buy into bullshit narratives like this one: Is This a Crisis to Buy? Financial media will be out saying peak fear is the time to buy...not reminding people that Russia has zero do with this decline. The whole way down they will make up new narratives post hoc.
What have bonds done? Some have been pummeled, but there ZB sits right near its long-term support.
The bond market remains the main event. Things are taking more time to develop, but the inflation/deflation resolution is still an open question in my mind. Rate hike expectations did fall today, helping the Nasdaq lead.
The smart move for a bull was selling everything on December 31. Or convert their entire portfolio to commodities and related investments. The bear market is the slow process of bulls realizing they are in a losing position that is growing weaker over time.

Finally, bear markets destroy the financial sector. There hasn't been a real bear market since the 1970s. Stimulus has pumped money in every time. Technology made it easier to trade. A lot of people are trading and day-trading in the markets because its "the place to be." At the depths of the bear market, being a stock trader or day trader will be like telling someone you trade something like potting soil. The attention the markets receive, the amount of money trading every day, is itself a symptom of the credit bubble and bull market. A real bear market will grind most traders into dust. Bulls will give up years of gains.

For now, everyone still thinks this is some type of correction like has happened several times over the past decade. I believe a real bear market is underway, and that stocks are going to be making a new low next month. For myself, I closed out almost all my positions today. Which might be a contrarian signal! But most of my options are short-term and I don't want to sit through an extended rally. There are gaps above that will be prime spots for going short again.

Financial Media Logic: Russian Expansion is Bullish

Financial media: Stocks rallied strongly today on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Investors did as they do with most takeover deals, selling Russia. The Russian market fell as much as 27 percent adjusted for currency losses before rallying back as investors began pricing in the possible synergies. With greater control over gas pipelines, Russia can cut Ukraine out out of payments. Russia's emergence as a more powerful energy power is bullish for U.S. markets because the Europeans will have to choose between more expensive American energy and U.S. military protection or cheaper energy and fend for themselves versus Russia.

U.S. markets surged as rate hike expectations plunged. The Fed doesn't have to hike rates now because soaring commodity prices will help cool inflatin by causing a recession, which is bullish because the Federal Reserve will have to restart QE. Everything is awesome. There has never been a better time to buy stocks!

Is This a Crisis to Buy?

The key is knowing who is having a crisis. The buy here is Russia.

Crisis Events and the US Stock Market

Hello Pfizer My Old Friend

If I had one wish in this upcoming season of Lent, it would be for Pfizer to form a right shoulder that tops out at the gap fill around $52 per share.

FedEx Also At Support


McDonald's Hits Support

Whether the gap fills or not, a move through support will unleash massive selling. A gap fill would be the place to short if not in a position.

Update: A Place to Short or Go Long

The Nasdaq is coming up on the underside of the sloping H&S neckline.
Update: I'm in a short, with a stop to lock a small profit in cases it reverses.

The Seeds of the Biden Election Bear Fruit: Crippling Inflation and War!

Today is Baizuo Christmas. They've been agitating for war with Russia for the better part of the decade. This war was planned for President Hillary, but a certain someone ruined their plans. All of the confusing lies around Russia, Ukraine and Trump becomes clear once you realize they had planned a war against Russia with Ukraine as the trigger. Had Trump been more of an authoritarian, at least where he was legally empowered to be with the military and intelligence agencies, he might have begun the process of putting the threads together. Who knows if John Durham will find a smoking gun in his investigations or more likely, war will make everyone forget who instigated this war. I posted last year: Did Baizuo Voters Want War With Russia? Because That's What They're Getting

Whether it stays Christmas for the American ruling class, who knows? The Gods of the Copybook Headings have returned and the Devil always gets his due.

As for the markets. The news doesn't matter. The charts were going to break. That this level of negative news has come out reveals how deeply wrecked American domestic and international relations are. Canada's authorization of Emergency Powers, jailing of dissidents across the West including the American January 6 protesters (not rioters, most of them work for the FBI...), trade war with China under Trump, ISIS/Middle East events are always on the back burner... I've been clued in on Turkey for years because of the charts, see: Geopolitical Forecasting Through Technical Analysis: Is Turkey About to Destabilize the Middle East? The 9/11 terror attacks and Iraq war came about a year into the main bear market, and about 18 months after tech stocks peaked. This war is starting about a year after ARKK and similar stocks topped. The charts signal what is coming, particularly in highly emotional ones like now.

Far worse news is coming because the charts point to larger losses. For example, the Nasdaq 100 ETF has to fall about 20 percent (not including the drop overnight) before it hits long-term trendline support. Large-cap stocks are still near their peaks. This bear market has barely begun.

Prices are going to go through the roof and the Federal Reserve will...do what?
The most evil regime in the history of the modern West and in the history of the United States, is now in power. They've already tipped their hand during the coronavirus lockdowns and with persecution of ordinary Americans who protested against them. There will be no cost too high for the American people in this war! The Baizuo regime will make sure all those costs fall directly on their enemies in the middle class. The stock market and various financial assets will be repriced for this destruction, either via crashing prices or inflation-adjusted losses.

The current regime is going to raze the U.S. economy to the ground. Crime will explode in the cities far beyond what we've already seen since 2020. Supply chains will be permanently destroyed. If the war escalates, Russia and China have the capability of raining missiles on U.S. cities. I would not want to be within the blast radius of any missile targets. Defense industries, military bases and political centers are prime targets. If you have been thinking about moving, the recession that unfolds will be the last chance to move at a discount.

Your duty is to your people, to your nation, not a false occupation government that seeks your very destruction. Buy gold. Buy guns and ammunition. Stockpile food, water, necessities. Prepare for a long winter. Stay on the side of Christ and of liberty. We're going to win in the end. Jesus said the meek will inherit the Earth. The correct translation of that meaning is that those who can take a punch will win. Those who can absorb a loss and not react rashly, or violently, or irrationally. Those who can keep their head when everyone around them is losing theirs. Destruction will be coming for the ruling class too. Their fate is sealed if they do not abandon their plans. May they find Christ before the Devil comes collecting. Pray that the nations of Eastern Europe are not sucked into being the bloody tripwire for escalation. Pray for peace.