Bonds Going Down

Everyone who bought interemediate term bonds in the past 18 months is underwater.

Here's an interesting moving average on the 10-year yield. You can fiddle with it, but I set it at 9-years. Except for 1994, every piercing of the line predicted or was coincident with a bear market or correction.

Breaking this trendline decisively would signal an end to the bond bull market. Although I doubt the Fed was using this chart as their signal, you can sort of see why they panicked that year, because the market was signaling the bond bull market was over. And with it will go the 40-year bull market in financial assets.