Mushroom Cloud Software

Technology advances such that what was once expensive becomes so commonplace one doesn't even think about it. If you are of a certain generation, you may recall "Game & Watch" versions of Super Mario or other popular games that were simplified versions on cheap LCD screens:

Today, there is a "Game & Watch" with Legend of Zelda games, the complete versions that ran on game systems such as the Nintendo and Super Nintendo.

In software, what was once expensive becomes cheap or even free. Nintendo's games and characters survive because they are copyrighted, but more importantly, popular. If another could make Mario games, Nintendo would be in deep trouble.

In the case of productivity software, the most important function is the task itself, which cannot be copyrighted or patented. "Paying a bill" is not a patenable function. Some have tried, like Amazon patenting "buy with one click," but that is more evidence of USG corruption than a repeatable busines model. Moreover, the shift to the cloud makes switching software easier than ever. If blockchain realizes its potential, consumers will gain more control over their data, forcing companies into greater competition for customers.

Many software and platform companies are valued on their platforms. Their growth is a function of the customer base growing into the future and collecting more dollars from their users. Instead, most are headed into a future similar to Docusign. Innovative to start, how much should it cost to digitally sign a document? What's to prevent competition? This is the classic case of a company built on a feature that will ubiquitous and free. The market has already figured out that day is coming:

I haven't done a deep dive into software companies. That is for after the decline, when picking the survivors will deliver great profits. For the foreseeable future, most companies will suddenly be valued as if Docusign's fate is their future.

Adobe looks bullish, but it's about a 30-percent loss to the midline and 50-percent down to support.

Arista has a head-and-shoulders forming with the potential for a island reversal.

Akamai has a rising wedge going back to the 2009 low and it looks ready to break.

Alibaba is a dip buyer favorite.

Salesforce widely owned and ready to crater.

Dropbox is another example of a one-trick pony. The risk for bears is that these companies are acquired before they go to zero. Many will be acquired, but when?

Salesforce competitor.

Intuit is headed for long-term support, currently around $300 per share.

Microsoft looks ready to drop too.

Veeva

These are only a sampling of the charts. The patterns repeat throughout the sector and the tech/growth subsectors.