谢国忠：看好黄金涨到2000美元

大回调之后再买

《大众证券报》：在金融危机爆发后，你一直看好黄金。目前，市场上有一种乐观的看法，认为未来黄金能涨到2000美元/盎司，你是否同意这种观点？

　　谢国忠：长远来看，在二三年内黄金涨到2000美元/盎司是有可能的，我还是比较看好黄金、石油的，因为有通胀、央行货币发放太多的因素。这是
一个趋势，但是不会一路涨到底，在这个过程中会有反复，所以，短线来说，涨得太多了就不能再追了。看好一个品种，都是在一个大回调以后再去买，风险比较
低。涨得比较快就说明有热钱在流入，有流入就会有流出，就容易导致短线亏损。

金矿:
山东黄金（600547.SS）
中金黄金（600489.SS）
紫金矿业（601899.SS, 2899.HK）
荣华实业（600311.SS）
灵宝黄金（3330.HK）
招金矿业（1818.HK）
瑞金矿业（0246.HK）
澳华黄金 (1862.HK)
紫金矿业H股2899比A股601899升值了百分五十多，2899跟招金矿业1818差不多。
这里有美国的金矿。

看到香港和美国金矿差不多，但是上边看大陆落后. 可是看看一年的:

如果黄金价格比通货膨胀升值多或者价格下降比通货紧缩少: 我是金矿牛. 最近金矿股票升值了,但是黄金没升值. 如果股市下降和黄金不升值,金矿股票会下降.

透露一个消息: 我买了NSU和GLD.

2009/05/07 News

Light posting lately. I've been studying up on the German hyperinflation (德国恶性通货膨胀) of the early 1920s, and will post about it in future.

Markets are gaining on no news and bad news (stress tests at U.S. banks). China's PMI numbers indicate economic expansion in April, and positive reports from companies such as Alibaba (1688.HK) have helped send the market higher. Optimism is in charge.

On to gold and gold miners:
From the Financial Times: China to continue buying gold

China is likely to buy more gold as a means of diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, after having recently doubled its holdings of the precious metal, the Financial Times reported, citing gold analysts.

The newspaper said analysts believe China will buy gold mostly from domestic producers to avoid pushing international prices higher.

More here:中国将继续增加黄金
Domestic producers include Sino Gold (1862.HK), Lingbao Gold (3330.HK), Zijin Mining (2899.HK), and Jinshan Gold (JIN.TO).

From Caijing:

Zijin Mining Shareholder Cuts Stake
Zijin Mining Group Co, China's largest gold producer, said its second-largest individual shareholder has lowered his stake to 1.72 percent from 2.24 percent.
Ke Xiping sold around 74.8 million Zijin Mining shares between April 27 and May 5.
After the sale, Ke and Hengxing Group, in which Ke holds 95.4 percent, held a combined 4.99 percent of Zijin Mining.

紫金矿业第二大自然人股东减持7477万股

And finally, the big news:

Taiwan and China are planning to permit trading of each others’ shares for the first time as ties improve 60 years after their civil war ended.

A so-called trading platform may list as many as 30 stocks from each market, said Schive Chi, chairman of the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Now, investors are restricted from directly investing in each others’ equities. An agreement on the dual-listing of exchange-traded funds is also expected this year, he said.

iShares Taiwan (EWT)is 65 percent off it's lows this year. The potential gains for Taiwan's economy and stock market are much greater than for China, due to their relative size, but the cross-straits trade will be a boost to the entire region's economy.