Why the Dollar Soars With Oil

The Sounding Line: Where Did Germany’s Trade Surplus Go and Why?

Well, today the data officially confirms that Germany’s [trade balance] turned negative in May for the first time since reunification (1991).

When people talk about the dollar dying, they're talking about the euro. Rising energy will kill the euro. The U.S. consumer and businesses will be hurt, but money that would have gone into buying Chinese imports will instead go to buying oil and gas from Texas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Pennsylvania...

Baizuo Don't Get It: Green Swan Panic Edition

ZH: In Latest Flailing Attempt To Slow Soaring Energy Costs, Biden Invokes Defense Production Act To Push Green Agenda

On Monday, Biden invoked the Defense Production Act, targeting the country's solar production capacity and fuel cell production, among other forms of green energy.

The Baizuo/Green solution for destroying the energy sector is to more fully destroy the energy sector. They do not comprehend physics, economics or incentives. Their understanding of the economy approximates that of a small child's. There is zero conception of the unseen effects of policy, the second- and third-order implications of a policy. If the state subsidizes inefficient energy sources, capital will flow out of sustainable, efficient sources and into inefficient sources such as solar. Note I am not saying solar doesn't work, but that solar doesn't work at a subsidized price. What policies like this do is increase the long-term cost of energy. Instead of solving the problem, they're increasing it.

Update from the Market Ticker: This Is Why It Doesn't Work

Why would you pay 30 cents/kwh for power you can have for 10?

Mao's Great Leap Forward and the green/neoliberal/globalist/Baizuo agenda of low/zero carbon emissions, electrification of transportation, alternative energy, etc. come from the same basic idea, that planning and central control is possible and works. Mao didn't intend to kill tens of millions of people with his plans, Mao was saner, but Mao had more power. We aren't well into a multi-dozen millions death count because the current ruling class lacks the power of Mao. If they are able to disarm Americans and defeat Russia and China diplomatically or militarily, we might yet see a body count that runs well into the triple-digits (on top of WW3 body count if it comes to that).

Greens BTFOd Again: Solar Increases Emissions, Toxic Air Pollution

The West has tapped a vast well of stupidity.

North State Journal: Duke Energy application points finger at solar for increased pollution

Duke spokeswoman Kim Crawford confirmed that increased solar power on the state’s electric grid is increasing emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx), a dangerous air pollutant. She said that reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could also reverse if current solar growth continues without policy changes.

Climate advocates blame increases in manmade gases like CO2 for global warming and have promoted solar power as environmentally clean.

An increase in emissions triggers the need to rethink national energy policy, experts say.

Crawford provided measurements showing that even on sunny days — when solar power is at its maximum output — more NOx pollution is released into the air than would occur if no solar electricity were used and natural gas were used instead.

People working on real, tangible, specific problems are doing good work. Ocean acidification, micro plastics and so on, conservationists saving natural habitats. The focus on climate change and alternative energy has sucked up money and attention though, and here is yet another piece of evidence that they are giant scams.

If solar is indeed increasing emissions, then my confidence in "madmade climate change" being a 100-percent false rises above 90-percent confidence. This would be the killshot for me because my chief complaint about solar was that it doesn't create enough energy, and not enough reliable energy. The switch to solar didn't make sense because it was going to increase energy costs and harm the economy, when nuclear would lower energy costs, help the economy and also eliminates emissions:

That’s because traditional power plants — including cleaner burning natural gas plants — must scale back electric generation to accommodate solar energy surging onto the system when the sun rises, and power back up when the sun sets and solar energy dissipates. That starting and stopping reduces efficiency and incapacitates emission control devices, increasing pollutant levels.

If alterative energy increases emissions, which it obviously does with Germany talking about how a return to coal may be necessary, how come the people making computer models didn't know that? If you have climate models predicting emissions and you think Man is making the emissions, then you need to model human behavior in response to various policies. They don't do that accurately though, in fact it looks like they have the sign wrong. The next question is, what other variables are they screwing up, weighting wrong, assuming is geometric or arithmetic when it is vice versa, or ignoring entirely?

Man does clearly impact the environment. Concrete-coated cities have their own microclimates. Dams and manmade lakes, ocean pollution, air pollutions and so on exist. But when an entire movement and industries are built on computer models selling the climate change narrative and those very same people push a solution that makes things worse, not better, then one must call the entire effort into question.

It was a joke in the 1990s that greens were watermelons because international socialists who lost their sinecures and/or credibility when the Soviet Union collapsed moved into environmentalism. Soviet central planning and Green economics with solutions like wind and solar grew from the same intellectual branch. Many people were surprised by the Soviet collapse, so they are again as Western economies are being seriously hobbled by the same line of thinking. 

The goal has always been rip roaring inflation that destroys developed economies. Nations and peoples can only be made equal in misery. 

Eliminate Electricity Production, Shift to Electric Cars

Toronto Star: Ontario energy grid emissions set to skyrocket 400% as Ford government forced to crank up the gas

Since all renewable energy projects were cancelled when Premier Doug Ford was elected, the province currently has no other way to compensate for the looming shutdown of a major nuclear reactor in Pickering, responsible for roughly 16 per cent of province-wide power. Only natural gas is available to meet rapidly growing demand for electricity, according to the IESO projections.

The projections show that the province’s natural gas plants — which only operate about 60 per cent of the time now — will run non-stop by 2033.

“The province has ignored energy planning for the last four years because there was no need. We had an energy surplus,” said Gord Miller, Ontario’s former environment commissioner — an independent watchdog position eliminated by the Ford government. “But now we’re in an energy squeeze. When Pickering turns off, we have no plans … and the default option is to up the gas.”

The story of how Ontario went from being a polluter to a beacon of green energy and back again is a political one that spans almost two decades and three premiers.

It starts in 2003, when then-premier Dalton McGuinty went out on a political limb to announce the complete phaseout of coal-fired generation. Over the next 12 years, carbon emissions from the electricity sector dropped precipitously — from more than 35 megatonnes of carbon in 2005 down to six in 2014, when Ontario became the first jurisdiction in the world to completely wean itself off coal.

But the cost of this achievement — a tripling of electricity rates — demanded a political price.

Green ideology is retarded because it is infested with central planning mentality and functions more like a religion. It fails on so many levels because it is irrational, faith-based and anti-scientific. Even if they were correct on the threat from CO2 emissions, which they wildly overstate, they are politically incompetent. Physics, logic, politics, on every level the plans are ludicrous. 

One does not eliminate electricity supply while increasing electricity demand via electric cars and expect anything but wholesale disaster. The Toronto Star article is trying to lay blame on the current premier, but the ultimate blame belongs on the morons who came up with this policy mix. I'm leaving out the possibility that people behind these policies are evil, but it is hard to imagine people being this stupid. A shift to electric vehicles has a range of outcomes. What if electric cars prove very popular? What if a tech breakthrough drops the price quickly and adoption accelerates? Where will extra power come from? Unless there's idle hydro power laying around, I don't see how anyone thinks this is possible without nuclear, natural gas or, the ultimate backfire, a return to coal. 

Look at the chart above. I'm eyeballing it, but it looks like there's barely a rise in electricity demand ex-transportation. The entire problem is being caused by electrification of transportation. Since markets are priced on the margin, a small deficit can create very large price increases. 

ESG and alternative energy are the biggest scams going. An economic agenda created by an anti-science, anti-physics, anti-capitalist, anti-human religious cult. It seems impossible today, but I really wonder if coal will make a major comeback. Not a full comeback, but maybe a serious player in the energy market. 

Stealth Green Agenda Fracks Europe

Most of the time, politics doesn't impact markets at the macro level. There are some major turning points that sometimes coincide with big tax increases and cuts, but these are often coincident with a bull market top and bear market bottom. For the most part, elections don't matter in the United States and Europe because of institutional inertia. The permanent bureaucracy remains no matter who wins. That is no longer the case though. The permanent bureaucracy has become incompetent to the point where one has to wonder when asset prices will realize the growing risk.

ZH: Oil Surges To Session Highs After Report EU Drafting Ban On Russian Crude

Having earlier this month banned Russian coal, a move which sent coal prices around the globe to all time highs, the European Union is now likely to adopt a similarly phased ban of Russian oil, E.U. officials and diplomats said, and for what reason: so politicians can signal their virtue (furthermore, the approach is designed to give Germany, in particular, time to arrange alternative suppliers and so will unlikely be implemented for a long, long time).

According to the NYT report, the earliest the proposed embargo will be put up for negotiation will be after the final round of the French elections, on April 24, to ensure that the impact on prices at the pump doesn’t fuel the populist candidate Marine Le Pen and hurt president Emmanuel Macron’s chances of re-election, officials said.

In other words, Europeans know very well just how unpopular such a measure will eventually be, but still they want to ram it through just because. The outcome will be a drop of millions of barrels in Russian supply, and much, much higher prices.

And just so European politicians - and everyone else for that matter - knows what is coming should a Russian oil embargo be triggered, oil, which was trading red on the day for unknown, opex-related reasons earlier, has soared and Brent was last seen well over $110, and on its way to wiping out all Biden SPR release losses.

The Europeans are intentionally slowing their economy with these measures, to the point where I believe a stealth climate agenda is at work. The Eurocrats are crippling fossil fuel infrastructure. In which case, long-term energy demand will decline as they slow their economies and permanently reduce demand. This will also crush their balance of trade, weaken the euro, and send continental inflation soaring. Their war on nuclear, on fossil fuels, on common sense...is sinking their prospects over the coming decade. If they go through with this plan, the European economy will be well and truly fracked.

Democrats Go Ultra-Nationalist Too

Nationalism is going to win. It's a matter of whether it is totalitarian Baizuo psychotics wearing the skinsuit of nationalism as they pursue global domination or whether hertiage Americans overthrow the Baizuo and restore sanity and peace to the world.

The Intercept: BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DRAFTING ORDER TO INVOKE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT FOR GREEN ENERGY STORAGE TECHNOLOGY

Several senators sent President Joe Biden a letter on Wednesday asking him to use authorities such as those contained in the Defense Production Act, which significantly expands the president’s authority to unilaterally alter domestic manufacturing policy in times of crisis, to “support and increase manufacturing capacity and supply chain security for technologies that reduce fossil fuel demand and fuel costs, such as electric heat pumps, efficient electric appliances, renewable energy generation and storage, and other clean technologies.”

The letter — signed by Democratic Sens. Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon — encourages Biden to make the U.S. less dependent on oil drilling abroad while simultaneously supporting climate goals: “Producing efficient electric products and exporting those goods to the E.U. and other foreign markets would help many countries lower their dependency on fossil fuels, and thereby strengthen their own energy security.” It’s the latest example of progressives in Congress urging the president to use his considerable authority to achieve policy victories. In a release earlier this month, the Congressional Progressive Caucus outlined a substantial agenda that could be achieved with the swipe of Biden’s pen. That list included utilizing the Defense Production Act to bolster the production of green energy technology.

Globalism is collapsing at an incredible rate. It is only a matter of time before an American politician tries completing the circle. If it's from the left, the U.S. will have national socialism. If from the right, nationalist capitalism. Trump should have been a warning to the ruling class, but they don't get it. These Democrat politicians don't get it. They are out of their depth, out of their element. They think they are in power, but do not realize no one is in power. The throne is empty, the Mandate of Heaven has been lost. There is no political opposition to the politician who understands this and decides the time for seizing power has arrived.

As for investing, this type of policy will cripple the economy with stagflation. Make a mint riding the soaring energy and materials prices higher, then make another mint shorting everything in sight when it all collapses in disaster.

China Unveils $2 Trillion Hydrogen Transformation

SCMP: China sets green hydrogen targets as it shifts to cleaner energies in zero emissions push

China aims to establish a complete hydrogen industry covering transport, energy storage and industrial sectors, and “significantly improve” the portion of the gas in its energy mix by 2035, according to a plan released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on Wednesday.

By 2025, China hopes to produce between 100,000 tonnes and 200,000 tonnes of green hydrogen annually, and have about 50,000 hydrogen-fuelled vehicles on the road. This would help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1 million to 2 million tonnes per year, a statement from the NDRC said.

China, the world’s largest producer of hydrogen, has been stepping up efforts to transition to cleaner fuels as it aims for net-zero emissions by 2060. It has prioritised hydrogen as an emerging industry under its 14th five-year plan.

iFeng: 12万亿重磅规划出炉！氢能示范应用锁定四大领域

The "Planning" proposes to coordinate the layout of the national hydrogen energy industry, reasonably grasp the progress of industrial development, avoid disorderly competition, promote the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure in an orderly manner, strengthen the safety management of hydrogen energy infrastructure, and accelerate the construction of safe, stable and efficient hydrogen energy supply network.

One is to arrange hydrogen production facilities according to local conditions. In areas where coking, chlor-alkali, propane dehydrogenation and other industries are concentrated, priority is given to utilizing industrial by-product hydrogen. In areas rich in renewable resources, priority should be given to the demonstration of hydrogen production from renewable energy sources, and the scale of application will be gradually expanded. Promote the research and development of solid oxide electrolysis cells for hydrogen production, photolysis of water for hydrogen production, seawater hydrogen production, and nuclear energy hydrogen production.

The second is to steadily build a storage and transportation system. Emphasize the principle of safety and controllability, support the exploration and practice of various storage and transportation methods, and gradually build a high-density, lightweight, low-cost, and diversified hydrogen energy storage and transportation system. In terms of high-pressure gas storage and transportation, we are committed to improving storage and transportation efficiency, reducing storage and transportation costs, and effectively improving the level of commercialization; in terms of low-temperature liquid hydrogen storage and transportation, we actively promote the development of industrialization; and other storage and transportation methods, and carry out pilot demonstrations such as hydrogen-doped natural gas pipelines and pure hydrogen pipelines.

The third is to make overall planning for the hydrogen refueling network. Emphasize the principle of demand orientation, coordinate the layout and construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and promote the construction of hydrogen refueling network in an orderly manner. On the premise of ensuring safety, the land resources shall be used sparingly and intensively, supporting the use of existing gas station facilities in accordance with laws and regulations to renovate and expand gas stations, and exploring hydrogen refueling stations that integrate hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and hydrogen refueling stations in the station, etc. new mode.

Poor Chinese Farmers Exploited by the Solar Scam

The alternative energy scam in a nutshell. While this story has more nefarious characters, many alternative projects are money losing disasters the moment the market wakes up to the dearth of real capital and imposes market interest rates again. Many bosses will suddenly disappear when the music stops.

iFeng: 困在光伏里的农民：免费的阳光为何让我欠了银行20万？

His initial knowledge of photovoltaic power generation came from news reports on the Internet and on TV. He felt that this thing was high-tech and promising, so when the salesman used the A4 paper-sized contract terms, Li Guimin didn't look at it. Under the instructions of the salesperson, he signed the name in the blank space. .

The next day, the sales staff and people from the credit union came to Li Guimin's house and took out a loan of 200,000 yuan.

It was not until half a year later that Li Guimin realized that the situation was not good. The salesman said that "photovoltaic panel power generation is sufficient to cover loan interest", "even when the weather is bad, the power generation is insufficient, the company can compensate for the price difference" and other promises will not be honored after a few months of fulfillment, because The boss of the photovoltaic company ran away. The salesman who came to the door at the time was from a neighboring village, and now I can’t find it. I only heard that he went to Shanghai.

Li Guimin can only look at the APP on his mobile phone in a hurry. On this APP, there is a jumping arrow showing the amount of power generation, but Li Guimin found that the income generated by the monthly power generation could not repay the loan at all, and had to transfer money from his other bank accounts to repay. "In the first year of installation, the electricity bill was not enough to repay the loan interest, so I paid 2,000 yuan in reverse; in the second year, I paid 4,000 yuan in reverse. It is estimated that at least 5,000 yuan will be inverted this year."

In addition to the repayment of the principal and interest of the loan, there are also miscellaneous maintenance costs, which cost thousands of dollars a year. Li Guimin calculated an economic account for Phoenix.com's "Eye of the Storm": photovoltaic panels need to be cleaned and repaired. Each cleaning cost is 500 yuan, and the repair fee is 200 yuan, which does not include material costs. During the three months of each summer season, he would find someone to repair it almost every month.

Spoiler:

Whether it is the harsh details hidden in the contract or the bubble-filled "data" of the photovoltaic company, the villagers who have installed photovoltaic panels on the roof have realized a truth: they just give the photovoltaic company free work. The real profit is those photovoltaic companies.

Green Terrorists Take Out the Power Grid: Incompetence, Criminal Negligence or Worse?

Cantillon Consulting tweeted this image:

The climate is always changing. When the climate changes, winds shift permanently. Why would you build wind power unless you can accurately predict the future path of winds (which we cannot)? This is really simply stuff, the kind of anecdote that the general public can understand. Why then, did supposedly smart people invest heavily in an unreliable energy source?

More broadly, as with California wildfires and other foreseeable disasters, why did the people who believe in climate change (manmade or not) most strongly, fail to prepare? Central planning fails with the smartest people in charge because they lack critical information, but in this case the planners were morons. Aside from being corrupt and profiting from wind deals, what other motives were involved? Were they incompetent, criminally negligent, or was this energy source selected with the intent of destroying national economies? When the Green movement took off in the 1990s, people called the Greens "watermelons" because many were former communists who needed a new gig after the checks from the Soviet Union stopped coming in. Is the Green movement a Soviet operation that kept running even after the regime fell? Did at Fifth column of traitors intentioally bring down the world's energy grid as part of a larger war plan against freedom, markets and liberty? As social mood declines and the lights start going out, authoritarianism will accelerate because the obvious cause of all these problems is the ruling class who intentionally enacted extremely stupid and short-sighted energy policies over the past couple of decades. Or are they very smart evil people who are doing this all for a malevolent end? The answer will determine their level of punishment, but no matter the intent, these people have to be removed from power yesterday.

1789 Approaches

ZH: German Power Plant Halted After It Runs Out Of Coal

Last year we had power, this year no power? What changed in the past few years? Green energy policies and mass lockdowns to fight what is clearly a very bad flu. And the vaccines might fail, triggering more lockdowns that will guarantee you won't be able to buy energy at any price even if you could afford it.

Got acres of wooded property with a wood stove?

Clown Economy Comes to the UK

electrek: The British have a gas shortage, so they’re Googling electric cars like crazy

September 29 update: UK car-buying comparison website carwow reached out to Electrek today to let us know that it, too, like Carguide (see below), has experienced a huge surge in site searches for electric cars.

Compared to the previous week, carwow says EV searches increased 28% on Friday, 43% on Saturday, and 56% by Sunday September 26.

They will go from a gasoline shortage to an electricity shortage.

China's Energy Mess

China is cutting power to export industries again. Incompetence? Climate change goals? Rising coal and natural gas prices hitting currency reserves?

Climate Madness

Clownifornia Strikes Again: Wants Suspension of EPA Air Pollution Rules

Green Clownifornia is asking the EPA to suspend pollution rules so it can burn more fossil fuels.

Why would such a Green state, fighting climate change, want to destroy the planet? Simple: their alternative energy gambit is proving to be a total failure as everyone with a brain predicted.

California wants air pollution rules suspended to burn more natural gas

California is asking the federal government to declare an “electric reliability emergency” so the Golden State can lean more heavily on fossil fuels to avoid blackouts.

The state’s main grid operator wants the U.S. Department of Energy to suspend air-pollution rules for some natural gas-burning power plants in case their output is needed “to meet demand in the face of extremely challenging conditions including extreme heat waves, multiple fires, high winds, and various grid issues,” according to a filing. The last time California received a waiver of such length and breadth was 21 years ago during the Western Energy Crisis.

If you want to know why I'm very bullish on uranium and natural gas in the longer-term, look no further than the extremely stupid people in charge of the USA, who are destroying the electricity grid with their harebrained energy schemes.

China's Carbon Neutral Plan Has Northeast Flummoxed, One City Shuts Off All Street Lights

iFeng:　“一刀切”切痛北方重碳省 业内人士：要想完成指标，恐怕只有停产　（"One size fits all" painful to the industry insiders of the Northern Heavy Carbon Province: To complete the target, I am afraid that the only way to stop production）

At present, the oil market is on the rise, and all regions are producing at full capacity. But a coal-to-liquid company in the north was deserted, and the leaders and employees were sad, and even sent a letter to the head office-requesting to stop production .

"Three times a week, the development and reform, energy, statistics and other departments have repeatedly requested and repeatedly monitored that our total energy consumption in the first quarter of this year was reduced by 50,000 tons of standard coal year-on-year. However, in the first quarter of last year, affected by the epidemic, the company basically had no production. The consumption base is small, and it is difficult to complete the task of reducing consumption." Zhang Heng (a pseudonym), the general manager of the coal-to-liquid branch, said, "Some cadres bluntly said,'It is impossible to complete it, it can be stopped.'"

The experience of this company is not alone. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, some provinces and regions failed to complete the national energy consumption "dual control" indicator task, and some were interviewed and notified by the National Development and Reform Commission because of their low rankings. Since the second half of 2020, many provinces and autonomous regions have issued a series of policies to fully deploy the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "dual control" of energy consumption in 2021. Some have decomposed energy consumption "dual control" task indicators step by step from provinces to cities and counties, to enterprises, and the relevant departments and enterprises feel more pressure.

Compared with the suspension of production, the more serious is the withdrawal. Recently, 11 companies in an industrial park in the north were included in the withdrawal because the submerged arc furnace was below 25,000 kVA. "Some companies have not even violated any laws and regulations. They are forced to withdraw only in order to meet the requirements of "dual control" of energy consumption." The cadre in charge of related work in the industrial park said, "11 companies are facing withdrawing, and behind it is the employment problem of at least 1,000 people. The park and enterprises are in a difficult situation, and there is currently no compensation plan."

The tentacles of "dual control" also extend to daily life. In the past few days, Ms. Wang, who lives in a county in Northeast China, was afraid to go out at night because the local government requested that “all street lights in the county be turned off all day”, “building lighting, business and business plaque lighting, LED screens and street lights The light box is closed all day." Ms. Wang was very helpless: “It’s not safe to drive and walk. The night economy that has finally developed has also stopped. There are fewer people doing square dancing and exercising. It’s really bad.”

The reporter encountered the situation of elevator shutdown many times during the interview. A five-storey government building originally had 4 elevators in operation. In order to reduce consumption, all the elevators were shut down. Cadres and employees climbed the stairs all day, and had to endure the building's "centralized power outage for one hour" at noon. A cadre bluntly said: "The'dual control' of energy consumption is a good thing, but if even basic work and life are disturbed, problems will arise."

It's a long article, this is only a small bit of it. You can get the gist of the story though: officials don't know how to hit carbon targets and they're shutting down the economy in the face of what seem like impossible targets.

We Have Time for Transition to Nuclear Power

The Ethical SKeptic: The Climate Change Alternative We Ignore (to Our Peril)

Now follow this experiment to its next inferential step. From June 2018 through to the end of 2020, humans emitted significantly lower CO2 than in the most recent years. One can observe this in the chart to the right which indicates lower emissions during the June 2018 through end of 2020 timeframe.12 As we saw in the previous chart in Observation 1A, this was due unequivocally to China’s reaction to something which caused it to shut down industrial activity during that 2.5 year duration. Despite this sustained exceptional lower trend in CO2 emissions, curiously the Earth also happened to experience its hottest non El Niño year on record in 2020.13

This was explained away with no study nor ability to forecast whatsoever, as stemming from the following: “global shutdowns related to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic reduced particulate air pollution in many areas, allowing more sunlight to reach the surface and producing a small but potentially significant warming effect.”14 The credibility of climate models was severely strained with this form of ad hoc rescue. If 2.5 years of lower CO2 emissions also causes global temperatures to rise, then what are we doing? And why did we not know that this would occur in advance? Our models should have indicated this through ergodicity, yet they did not. We are broaching pseudo-theory with such an apologetic method. A theory which quickly explains everything a posteriori without any relevant research, likely explains nothing.

The inference to be drawn from Observations 1, 1A, 1B, 2, and 3 above supports the construct (pre-hypothesis) that something else may be driving the production of CO2 and methane emissions into the atmosphere aside from simply man. That something else is

a. a strong independent input variable which is already hotter than historical without external impetus,

b. functions independent of carbon and methane emissions, and

c. is at the same time causing the planet’s oceans to warm at a rate unachievable through man’s activity alone.

This heat is behaving like a strong independent input variable and not constrained-dependent output result. If climate heat is a constrained-dependent output, and we have sufficient enough grasp of its dynamics to begin to blame specific companies, peoples and countries for climate change, then our models necessarily should have predicted this 2020 temperature rise phenomenon as well. Yet our models were not successful in doing so. This is inductive (heteroductive) inference to be sure, but is also strong enough in terms of inferential merit to introduce plurality. Something is wrong in the epistemic sauce, and the 2020 Covid-19 experiment demonstrated this in spades. We are now compelled to introduce plurality, no matter how many fake skeptics tantrums this serves to elicit.

The next question along such a critical path of inquiry would be, from whence does this ‘already hotter’ heat derive? We believe that the answer can be drawn as inference from the next six critical path and deductive observational elements, which follow.

If the above is true, and if the astrophysicists are right, the Sun will offset much Man's impact on warming during the coming Solar Cycle. This would provide time for a slow-but-concerted shift towards nuclear power. Instead, the ruling class wants to wield Green ideology for a far more destructive "lockdown" of the economy in the name of climate change. The inflation unleashed by their policies will start wars and political revolutions. There isn't enough raw material supply for a rapid shift away from internal combustion engines and fossil fuels. The electric grid cannot and will not scale fast enough, moreover under the name of Green ideology, the ruling class is also retarding electricity grids will alternative energy and "green" regulations that make risk of catastrophic failure higher. Electricity prices will soar along with general inflation. A planned disaster is being orchestrated by those in power because they cannot maintain power without crushing economic competitors. This goes for USA vs China, but also internally between the less than elite ruling class and the rising elite in emerging industries that operate outside of the government's direct political control.

More on the Line

Since the market focuses on DXY, a move through resistance will accompany clear breakouts in many commodity, emerging markets and value assets. Failure will be pullbacks and corrections galore. Is this time different or is it a repeat of every reflation since 2008? We'll soon find out. Stay nimble.

Here We Go Again: GCL to Build One Solar Plant to Meet 50pc of Global Demand

Will the demand be there?

Caixin: China's GCL to Build World’s Biggest Solar Panel-Making Plant

The Chinese manufacturer plans to invest 18 billion yuan ($2.54 billion) to construct a facility in eastern Hefei province that will be able to produce 60 gigawatts of solar panels a year, GCL System said in a filing to the Shenzhen stock exchange on March 27. It didn’t provide a timeline.

The plant’s maximum output is double the 30 gigawatts of capacity installed in China in 2019, and would be able to supply to almost 51% of solar installations worldwide. The project will boost GCL System’s ability to produce panels more than nine-fold from 7.2 gigawatts, according to data from BloombergNEF. The world’s biggest solar-panel maker, JinkoSolar Holding Co,. has 16 gigawatts of capacity.

Note this GCL trades under symbol 002506 in Shenzhen, not the 3800 in Hong Kong.

Another firm is GCL New Energy, symbol 0451 in Hong Kong.

PV Magazine:China walks away from state bail-out of GCL solar project business

Another company owned by the parent Golden Concord Group (GCL) is a traditional power company GCL Energy Technology that trades in Shenzhen under the symbol 002015.

Contrarian Headline Indicator on Ethanol Producer

Reuters: U.S. ethanol industry nearing breaking point: Green Plains CEO

SOEs Taking Over Private Solar

The state sector keeps on winning.

Caixin: State Sector Gobbles Up Private Solar Firms Reeling From Slashed Subsidies

The most recent sign of this trend occurred earlier this month when a subsidiary of state-owned China Huaneng Group Co. Ltd. signed a “cooperation intent agreement” to buy a 51% stake in solar power producer GCL New Energy Holdings Ltd. (GNE), according to a filing posted by its parent, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd., on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.