America's Collapse: Cailfornia in the Coal Mine

Take it away, Bill Gross:

What is critical to recognize is that both California and the U.S., as well as numerous global lookalikes such as the U.K., Spain, and Eastern European invalids, are in a poor position to compete in a global economy where capitalism is morphing from its decades-long emphasis on finance and levered risk taking to a more conservative, regulated, production-oriented system advantaged by countries focusing on thrift and deferred gratification. The term “capitalism” itself speaks to “capital” – the accumulation of it and the eventual efficient employment of it – for growth in profits and real wages alike.

What California once had and is losing rapidly is its “capital”: unquestionably in its ongoing double-digit billion dollar deficits, but also in its crown jewel educational system that led to Silicon Valley miracles such as Hewlett Packard, Apple, Google, and countless other new age innovators. In addition, its human capital is beginning to exit as more people move out of the state than in. While the United States as a whole has yet to suffer that emigration indignity, the same cannot be said for foreign-born and U.S.-educated scientists and engineers who now choose to return to their homelands to seek opportunity. Lady Liberty’s extended hand offering sanctuary to other nations’ “tired, poor and huddled masses” may be limited to just that. The invigorated wind up elsewhere.

Wages are driven by capital accumulation. The welfare-warfare state excels at capital depletion.

As for emigration, it hasn't shown up in the numbers, but the social trend is there. Americans are heading to Europe and especially Asia, attracted by countries that are friendly to capital accumulation, investment, hard work and savings.

Hugh Hendry on Madoff, 人民币 & More

What if we've already had the inflation?
Most interesting comment comes just before the 8 minute mark (the topic begins around the 7:20 mark):

"In my crazy head, in this day and age when everyone is anticipating inflation, not just inflation—hyperinflation—I'm saying to you...what if we saw it? What if we saw it between 2002 and 2007, and it wasn't the quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve, it was the mercantilistic trading policies of the surplus countries, which kind of suppressed the value, kept their exchange rates cheap and therefore created these foreign exchange reserves, these sovereign wealth funds are really just quantitative easing programs, and if we look at that 5 year period, gold broke a 27-year trend and actually went up. It went from $250 to $1000.

The dollar lost 40% of its value—40! That is one of the biggest collapses in the dollar ever. 40%. Oil went from 10 bucks to 150. (as you said) But maybe we've had all the inflation. And today, prices are falling. Retail prices are falling. And yet, everyone wants to talk about hyperinflation. I'm just curious at these...shifting players, and how they don't seem to be aligned, expectations versus reality are a little bit skewed."