Bin Laden's Letter to the American People

The Guardian deleted this letter because it's being interpreted wrong on social media. How does deleting source material qualify as journalism or even basic truth-seeking? There's no way to even combat false interpretations without the source material!

In the name of Allah, the Compassionate, the Merciful.

From Usama Bin Muhammad Bin Ladin to the American people,

I speak to you about the subject of the ongoing war between you and us. Even though the consensus of your wise thinkers and others is that your time (TN: of defeat) will come, compassion for the women and children who are being unjustly killed, wounded, and displaced in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan motivates me to speak to you.

First of all, I would like to say that your war with us is the longest war in your history and the most expensive for you financially. As for us, we see it as being only halfway finished. If you were to ask your wise thinkers, they would tell you that there is no way to win it because the indications are against it. How will you win a war whose leaders are pessimistic and whose soldiers are committing suicide? If fear enters the hearts of men, winning the war becomes impossible. How will you win a war whose cost is like a hurricane blowing violently at your economy and weakening your dollar?

The Bush administration got you into these wars on the premise that they were vital to your security. He promised that it would be a quick war, won within six days or six weeks; however, six years have passed, and they are still promising you victory and not achieving it. Then Obama came and delayed the withdrawal that he had promised you by 16 more months. He promised you victory in Afghanistan and set a date for withdrawal from there. Six months later, Petraeus came to you once again with the number six, requesting that the withdrawal be delayed six months beyond the date that had been set. All the while you continue to bleed in Iraq and Afghanistan. You are wading into a war with no end in sight on the horizon and which has no connection to your security, which was confirmed by the operation of ‘Umar al-Faruq, which was not launched from the battlefield and could have been launched from any place in the world.

As for us, jihad against the tyrants and the aggressors is a form of great worship in our religion. It is more precious to us than our fathers and sons. Thus, our jihad against you is worship, and your killing us is a testimony. Thanks to God, Almighty, we have been waging jihad for 30 years, against the Russians and then against you. Not a single one of our men has committed suicide, whereas every 30 days 30 of your men commit suicide.

Continue the war if you will.

Palestine shall not be seen captive for we will try to break its shackles.

The United States shall pay for its arrogance with the blood of Christians and their funds.

Peace be upon those who follow right guidance.

Justice is the strongest army, and security is the best way of life, but it slipped out of your grasp the day you made the Jews victorious in occupying our land and killing our brothers in Palestine. The path to security is for you to lift your oppression from us.

Bouncing to Collapse

Nord Stream system suffers multiple ‘unprecedented’ leaks as sabotage not ruled out

“Yes, there was actually information yesterday, it came from both Gazprom and the operating company. This is very alarming news, indeed we are talking about some kind of destruction in the pipe, it is not yet clear what kind, in the Danish economic zone,” Peskov told reporters.

“…This is an issue related to the energy security of the whole continent,” Peskov told reporters, commenting on the situation around Nord Stream.

According to the Danish Energy Agency, there are three possible causes of the gas leaks.

1. A shipwreck

2. Construction defect

3. Deliberate act

“It is of course worrying that there are three incidents roughly simultaneously.”

Occam's razor says only one of those, number 3, is likely to produce multiple failures at different points along the pipeline.

Who is responsible? Russia seems the least likely since they built the pipelines. Germany would also seem unlikely, except the current government is already destroying the economy. This is only an escalation of current German policy. The United States is also a potential culprit, as are anti-Russian and anti-German countries such as Poland. Whether regional players are capable or not, I cannot say. Although China hasn't shown itself to be aggressive in geopolitics outside of the South China Sea, if they are playing a realpolitik deep game, setting the United States and Russia against each other could be a goal. There's also ecoterrorists, though this seems beyond their capabilities.

For all the losses in the stock market, investors still seem oblivious to risks. This has all the hallmarks of a bear market given the amount of time and the destruction in smaller speculative companies, but major index declines have aborted at these levels before such as in 1998, 2011 and 2018. That is to say, U.S. large cap indexes have declined on par with corrections and small panics, not a world where bond and currency markets are crashing, Europe's main energy supply has been destroyed and the global economy is tipping into a deep recession.

eugyppius: German Energy Apocalypse Update V

Prices have increased vastly across the economy, and estimates are that up to 60 percent of German households are now committing their entire monthly income to cover the rising cost of living.

It is like the 2020 lockdowns, but it never ends. Consumer spending will collapse and with it will go the rest of the economy.

As the pressure builds and the first closures begin, Germany is entering an economic recession, and there are everyday renewed cracks in the political edifice. Minister President of Saxony Michael Kretschmer (CDU) – no fringe political figure – recently remarked that Germany “cannot do without Russian gas” and acknowledged that EU sanctions are to blame for the shortage, but he stopped short of demanding that Nord Stream 2 be opened; instead, he hopes for a return to Russian gas after the Ukraine war has ended.

Ending sanctions was a good solution until the pipeline was sabotaged. There's no way out for Germany. There is no way out for the world. The NY Federal Reserve Bank's DSGE model showing a mild recession that lasts until 2024 looks like a rosy scenario.

With markets oversold, a bounce seems likely, but with a caveat. Oversold conditions produce crashes and market indicators don't include everything. It's true that markets usually price everything into the market, but there are exceptions. One is when the people are delusional. As I've put it before, either losing a main source of energy isn't a big deal or the European economy will sink into depression. I don't see an alternative. The market is priced for "not a big deal." 

This is a category of risks the Chinese like to call gray rhinos. Take China's bad debt and housing bubble. Everyone knows it's potentially a problem, but it isn't at the moment. I'd add situations such as Germany's energy situation into the mix. Everyone knows about it, but do they understand it? Many "shocks" and "black swans" are gray rhinos that people don't know about or don't understand. If China lets the yuan drop to USDCNY 8, that isn't a black swan. It's not even entirely a gray rhino because it's highly probable if current conditions continue. Yet markets would be "shocked" and "panic" if that happens.

The chart of the S&P 500 has a clear bullish foundation. The June low wasn't taken out. It looks like a potential double bottom. Markets are oversold. Bearish sentiment is widespread. A rally would give bull confidence and bears doubt because, if the market rallies on news that Germany's economy is guaranteed to collapse next year, then what won't it rally on? That will be the thinking.

I don't think this is anything except a relief rally until it gains at least another 1 percent. If it starts running towards 3800, then a more substantial rally could unfold.

All I see from bulls is very short-term oriented thinking, such as the bearish positioning among traders. I don't see them making a strong case for owning stocks here. I do see some talk from the value guys about locking in high treasury yields.

Longer term, the Western public is delusional. Their behavior during the pandemic, their slavish following of all media narratives up to an including the Ukraine war, their inability to distinguish between male and female. It is trivially easy to find social media accounts with a Ukraine emoji complaining about high energy prices and even blaming it on the right-wing, Russia or Trump voters. Smart money knows better, or does it? My suspicion is they do not. My suspicion is that even if they know better, they don't realize how many of their colleagues do not. 

There is a confidence about the world that is wholly unwarranted. The mainstream was shocked by 100 predictable elections in Sweden and Italy. Events I and others have been expecting for the past decade come to pass and many people lose their minds because their concept of the world is divorced from reality. There is a moment of intense shock when one realizes their view of the world is 180 degrees out of step with reality. This shock is going to make its way into the financial markets. If not now, then sometime over the next 12 months. The shock can also come from a continuation of current events. What if the voting public in the USA is already so lost that they vote for more of the same? What if they burn the nation down, and then blame it all on white supremacists? What if the public believes it?

Short-term, I'm waiting for the bounce in stocks to finish. I expect it'll rally another 1 percent or so this morning. That's where I'll be looking to reenter short positions. The past few days saw several rallies. All of them were caused by strong performances from BigTech stocks such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Google. A different mix each day, but always BigTech. It doesn't tell direction, but these stocks are propping up the market. If they give way, the market can plunge.

BTC remains one of the charts that sums up the whole market. It rallied strongly today and hasn't broken it's long-term uptrend. The slope of the line is very steep though, rising from a current $17,800 to around $19,000 by late November.

Countdown to WW3 and American Civil War 3

The U.S. has fought two civil wars: the Revolutionary War and the Civil War. The next one, if it happens, will be far more brutal. VD: The USA’s Last War

No matter which way you slice it, I suspect the war will turn into a variety of sieges of Blue cities by Red armies. This is exasperated by the fact that every state in Team Red is geographically contiguous, while every state in Team Blue is split into about three or four islands. The Republicans in the Spanish Civil War faced the same problem, and Franco’s plan to defeat in detail was made the path of least resistance by the drawing of the battle lines.

These sieges will be an absolute bitch. Not only will the massive concentration of urban buildings act as a natural fortress, the United States Interstate System was built to simultaneously serve as military infrastructure and urban fortifications. Ever notice how the Interstates loop around major cities like walls? Ever notice spaces dug for mortar pits, ammo dumps, staging areas for motor-pools (rest stops,) and that each major city has an international airport within that loop of Interstate wall? This is to say nothing about Air Defense assets, which combined with the International Airport will almost assure local air superiority for the defenders of blue cities. Also consider that the Urban battlefield has become 4d, as metro systems and other such tunnels will need to be fought through and won.

The war’s outcome will never be in doubt. But it will be long, and it will cost more lives than we’ve ever thought possible. I can assure the dear reader that America will never be the same afterwards.

The map of the 2016 election helps one visualize why a siege war would unfold. Most purple states and even some blue states like New York are an island of blue in a sea of red.

From the original source of the quotes above:

This will not be the romance of 1861-1865. Names and legends will be born, as they are in all wars, but they’ll be a small conciliation to the sheer weight of loss that will follow. I doubt it will break America, but it will age it. Even our ideals on the Right-Wing side of things, our justified hatred of the current order and hope to change it, won’t be enough. We may even forget it after the first five minutes, when no one will remember why the war was fought in the first place. Only that we’re Team Red and they’re Team Blue.

I find it very strange. Not thirty years ago, Gettysburg (1993) was released to great reception across the nation. Reenacting was widespread and commonplace. Old men, many veterans of WWII and Vietnam, looked back on that long past war as a reminder of their new national unity. Confederate flags were rarely given a second glance. Robert E. Lee was regarded as a great man, and both northerners and southerners felt old wounds had finally healed.

Now, any bar in America has a MAGA Boomer talking about the Second Civil War.

Time is a flat circle.

How likely is a civil war? I don't know. I do think that even in the rosiest of scenarios, the overturning of Roe points to the future. Blue and Red states are already ignoring federal laws on immigration and drugs. Red states and counties have hinted they'll ignore federal gun control laws. States are going to become very different places to live in. If worried about war, exit the cities. Live someplace that is deep red/blue because it's more likely those places will become more red or more blue to your liking if that's where you want to be, and to your frustration if not.

U.S. and Canada Are At War With Russia

VD: Canada is at War with Russia

Troops are on the ground, but not a signficant amount.

My take: Russia was at war with the United States in North Korea and Vietnam, but it never escalated into a hot war. Iran was supporting Iraqi forces during the occupation and helped kill American soldiers, but it was not at war with the United States. The U.S. armed the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan. Nothing new here. Enemies will often help an enemy of their enemy. The problem I see is, are we back to a Cold War mentality with defined economic blocs and expectation that enemies will intervene in wars? Or is there greater risk of WWIII because these lines aren't clearly defined? It seems more like the latter than the former here.

Crude to the Moon?

I have more cash that I have had all year. Crude and bonds are not supportive of the market rally. Something is going to give, but I'm not sure what.

Something like this: EU oil ban adds pressure on Russia but obstacles remain could break the logjam with an oil spike that cripples the entire Western economy.

WWIII For Christmas?

MSN: Biden signs ‘lend-lease’ bill for Ukraine, urges quick approval of $40 billion aid package

Washington sought to portray a united front against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Monday as President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan measure to reboot the World War II–era “lend-lease” program, which helped defeat Nazi Germany, to bolster Kyiv and Eastern European allies.

FDR slow walked a nation that didn't want another European war into the conflict. America's electorate is in a similar position today. They're tired after 20 years of failed wars and do not want a nuclear war with Russia. How can the ruling class start a nuclear war with Russia? Slowly at first, then all at once. Lend-Lease gets the foot in the door.

The lend-lease bill that Biden signed into law Monday revives the World War II–era strategy to more quickly send military equipment to Ukraine. Launched under during World War II, it signaled the U.S. would become what Franklin D. Roosevelt called the “arsenal of democracy” helping Britain and the allies fight Nazi Germany.

Before signing the bill, Biden said “Putin’s war” was “once more bringing wanton destruction of Europe,” drawing reference to the significance of the day.

We'll find out soon enough if the American people will accept nuclear hellfire and total destruction via war with Russia and China. Missiles will fall on U.S. cities, carriers will sink, the body count could run into the millions of soldiers for every nation in the war, let alone civilians killed by direct and indirect effects of the war. The economy will be destroyed. 

The government will unleash totalitarian controls on speech and movement, including the jailing of dissenters and political opponents. Lincoln put his political enemies in jail, Zelensky banned opposition parties and jailed his opposition. Do you really think the current ruling class in the USA won't do the same? January 6 protestors whose only charge is a misdemeanor are sitting in prison for over a year awaiting trial already. The administration announced a disinformation board. The FBI and DOJ were already unleased on parents protesting at school boards. The administration's allies are engaged in mob threats again Supreme Court justices. It doesn't require much imagination to see what USG would do with wartime powers.

At least one-third of the country are NPCs who would up for strict lockdowns again, so they're a guarantee for nuclear war. A lot of people who are against lockdowns were sucked into the anti-Russia propaganda though. Soon, we'll know how many of them are willing to risk total destruction of their homeland in pursuit of this ludicrous, suicidal anti-Russia monomania.

It's all over once the bullets fly folks. No matter how "justified" it is, you'll be enraged watching Americans get slaughtered. Everyone will be sucked in or be shunned by society. Fullscale nuclear war is possible based on USG's already stated goals. It's possible that to avoid direct strikes, Russia, China and the U.S. will unleash EMP strikes that knock out electric grids, causing more indirect devastation.

Where will be safe? Not any allied state. They could all be hit by EMP attacks, military attacks or see their allies wiped out along with their supply chains. Food production will collapse. China, the U.S. and Russia will engage in naval warfare. Africa probably escapes mostly unscathed. The winner might be South America, since it is far away, would be out of range of EMP attacks and probably nuclear fallout, and has ample food and energy production.

Globalism Goes Down the Tubes

ZH: China Holds Secret Bank Meetings To Plan For Protecting Assets From US Sanctions

China is taking serious steps to prepare itself for potential future US sanctions such as have been imposed against Russia's banking sector, with regulators recently convening an emergency meeting of domestic and foreign banks to examine how to best protect the country's overseas assets.

Over the weekend the FT identified that the internal conference was held on April 22 and included top officials from China's central bank and finance ministry. It's also said that representatives were sent from every domestic and Chinese overseas bank, and additionally some China-tied international institutions, notably among them HSBC. The somewhat secretive conference was held as Russia is charging Washington with stealing $300 billion of its assets held overseas.

The end of globalism was signaled clearly a decade ago when China escalated a political dispute to an economic one and restricted rare earth exports to Japan. China had a monopoly on rare earth exports and this told the world that would need to diversify their supply. Continueed attacks on Japan caused that nation to diversify its supply chain: Japanese firms accelerating exit from China

Back in 2014 I posted The Logic of Strategy: Yuan Devaluation and the Road to Trade War. I thought yuan depreciation and possible devaluation would trigger this fracture. Instead, it was driven by politics.

Now USG has exploited its monopoly over the reserve currency and financial markets, signaling to China (and all nations) that they cannot rely on the U.S. currency or its financial markets and financial assets.

The Hill: The plan to seize Russian oligarchs’ assets sets an appalling precedent

The Bible’s Eighth Commandment prohibits thievery or stealing. It is understandable, nevertheless, that on Wednesday, the House of Representatives, infuriated by Russian aggression against Ukraine, would vote 417-8 to authorize President Joe Biden to steal the assets of Russian oligarchs allegedly linked to President Vladimir Putin to benefit the people of Ukraine. The vote for H.R. 6930, the “Asset Seizure For Ukraine Reconstruction Act,” may be politically astute, but it is not law and is an appalling precedent.

The American ruling class is doing as it has done for two generations now: systematically destroying the institutions and foundation that built America and American wealth. For now, the American people are still going along for the ride.

The Early 1980s Dollar Setup Repeats?

This thought crossed my mind and I've haven't worked through it, so consider this a hot take. But what if the setup is similar to the early 1980s? The U.S. economy is the strongest of Europe, Japan and China. It is hiking rates and capable of going higher than those countries, more ver there's a case to be made for all of those currencies experiencing major devaluations if rates and/or inflation are going higher than expected.

Normally, I'd expect a lower dollar here. A pullback definitely likely. The problem I'm running into is that the Fed hasn't done anything yet. Nobody knows what is priced in. Maybe the market is running ahead with pricing in Fed policy, but maybe not. What if the starting point for the next dollar move is a new multi-year high? Another way of putting this is, what if the Fed does its job like Volcker did? Wouldn't that shock almost everyone currently in the market?

Here's a chart that should scare everyone: DXY compared to the spread between the U.S. and German 10-year government bonds.

What do you think? Can the Fed decouple from Europe, China and Japan and keep hiking? Would it? I expect the 10-yer to fall and catch down to German yields in a deflationary scenario, but again, what if the inflation isn't done? This would have to be the biggest shock for a market that is convinced in the death of the dollar. It's also possible USG would like to induce this outcome as part of a non-kinetic war on Russia-China. They seem like they're psychotic enough to go this route, but maybe not that intelligent. Then again, the string pullers behind the scenes understand this chart and what it would mean for the global economy and global markets.

The Planned Destruction of the West

Bill Gates: Rich nations should move to '100 percent synthetic beef'

"Eventually, that green premium is modest enough that you can sort of change the [behavior of] people or use regulation to totally shift the demand," Gates said. "So for meat in the middle-income-and-above countries, I do think it’s possible."

People focus too much on Bill Gates because he's always in the public making statements. What he says, however, reflects the thinking of the ruling class. Everything bad happening over the past 20 years, all the major events from 9/11 to drug overdoses to mass migration to human trafficking to offshoring of manufacturing to collapsing supply chains to soaring food prices to world war to pandemics to race riots to what will likely be mass death...all of it is an intentional or unintentional result of ruling class decisions. Of ruling class environmental, racial and political ideology. There's a reason the West increasingly looks like Mao's China.

The ruling class could have been irreligious like in China. The Chinese are opposed to Christianity, but they are not anti-Christian in their identity. They are not-Christian. The ruling class of the West is not pagan, but anti-Christian. It has become a Satanic death cult.

Mass Export of Gold is Akin to High Treason

Sergey Glazyev: Sanctions and sovereignty

We need to complete the de-dollarization of our foreign exchange reserves, replacing the dollar, euro and pound with gold. In the current context of the expected explosive growth in the price of gold, its mass export abroad is akin to high treason and it is high time for the regulator to stop it. We need to introduce a digital ruble as soon as possible, which could be used for cross-border payment and settlement operations, bypassing the banking system that is subject to sanctions pressure. We should hurry up with the creation of our own exchange space and mechanisms for ruble pricing for the raw materials produced in our country in excess. Invite partners in Asia to introduce a global payment and settlement currency based on the index of national currencies and exchange-traded commodities.

Only a Matter of Time

Until you need a UnionPay card to travel internationally.

Reuters: Russian banks rush to switch to Chinese card system

You might think who cares, but when push comes to shove, nations will be forced to choose which system they will use. If a nation knows it will lose tourist money one way or another, it will choose to lose the least amount. There will be outliers. Perhaps Vietnam will choose the West, even if it is the worse economic choice, because they value sovereignty more. Maybe Thaliand can remain independent and doesn't have to choose. Otherwise, I expect much of Asia will be closed to Westerners who don't have UnionPay cards. Should the U.S. dollar collapse, much of the world may be closed to Visa and Mastercard.

Russian Opera Star Banned

Russian opera stars Gergiev and Netrebko fired over Ukraine invasion

How Long Until Taiwan is Sacrificed to Isolate China

China might be smart enough to avoid the bait, but China might also be strong enough to take the bait and break the isolation, delivering a fatal blow to the USG's hegemony. If they wait, they will win. Therefore, USG must incite Taiwan to war. Let's see what USG goes via-a-vis Taiwan next. Escalation or deescalation?

USG Deplatforming at Home and Abroad, Building New Al-Qaeda for Domestic War on Dissent

Russia is weeks away from having its aviation industry grounded because it cannot obtain parts for planes or pay landing fees. Traders refuse to buy Russian oil because they fear falling afoul of a fluid sanctions regime. What is technically legal today may be illegal tomorrow. Who wants to be caught owning an oil tanker filled with Russian oil that is banned from sale?

Private companies are getting in on the act along with sports leagues. Formula One permanently cancels Russian Grand Prix

On Wednesday, the FIA ruled that the contract for the 2022 race had been terminated for reason of force majeure as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The FIA also banned the display of Russian and Belarusian flags and symbols, along with the playing of their national anthems, at any event under its jurisdiction and suspended its sanctioning and funding of events in both countries.

Apple halts sales in Russia, bans propaganda apps over Ukraine war. Google and Apple also banned their payment systems, creating havoc.

Violence against ethnic Russians and anything remotely Russian is also now greenlit by the Baizuo regime.

It is actually horrifying how conservatives and liberals were so quickly and effectively programmed by Marvel movie themes into supporting escalation with Russia and now even attacks on other Americans who happen to be Russian

Remember: you weren't even allowed to say "WuFlu" because it was basically violence against Asians

But let's make it policy and culturally acceptable to discriminate against Russians in America to OWN Putin

"The vandals broke windows and spray painted 'anti-Russian' writings on the building, police said. It was unclear how many people may have been involved."

That's fine because Russians aren't POC *and* they're all related to Putin, basically not human

The analogy of the red pill and blue pill is apt. You can either see the regime taking shape in the United States or you cannot. Many people who recognize how evil it was to unleash the Department of Justice and FBI agents on parents upset with their local school boards allowing rapes in schools, teaching racial hatred and implementing abusive masking policies suddenly dumped all this knowledge down the drain when the target shifted to Russia. The same institutions used to crush American dissent was weaponized to maximum effect against Russia.

What is being done to Russia today will be done to Americans tomorrow, indeed it has already been done to a small segment of dissidents by payment processors, by Google, Apple, Paypal, Mastercard, Airbnb and so on.

Russia can resist deplatforming because it is a nation. It can build its own systems and operate independently. Nuclear weapons should, but I sense won't, prevent USG from eventually attempting a genocidal war on Russia. It has allies though. As long as China doesn't abandon Russia, it should survive and maybe even thrive.

American dissidents though? They have no nuclear weapons. They have no allies. Neither Russia nor China will help them. Indeed, Russia and China would rather let the Baizuo completely destroy the United States as a competitor than to risk "making America great again." A parallel economy is therefore a necessity. Americans need everything from basic utilities, banking and financial services, to currency and security. They must build these goods and services because without it, USG will deplatform them.

USG already launched violent pogroms in the summer of 2020. It is unleashing another on ethnic Russians today. They haven't launched violent pogroms on the core middle of the country yet because they lack the propaganda, but they are building it now. USG helped overthrow the elected government of Ukraine in 2014 (for being insufficiently pro-EU, he was a corrupt politicians playing the Russians off the EU and vice versa as he asked for more money...) with the help of literal Nazis. Now they are using their ties with Ukrainian Nazis to create an international network of "white supremacists" which they will then tie to American dissidents, allowing the full force of USG including extra judicial killings.

Last American Vagabond: Ukraine And The New Al Qaeda

Yet, this insurgency is poised to have consequences that reach far beyond Ukraine. It increasingly appears that the CIA sees the insurgency it is creating as more than an opportunity to take its hybrid war against Russia ever closer to its borders. As this report will show, it appears the CIA is determined to manifest a prophecy propagated by its own ranks over the past two years. This prediction from former and current intelligence officials dates from at least early 2020 and holds that a “transnational white supremacist network” with alleged ties to the Ukraine conflict will be the next global catastrophe to befall the world as the threat of Covid-19 recedes.

...Soon after Russia began military operations in Ukraine, Foreign Affairs – the media arm of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) – published an article entitled “The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency.” The piece was authored by Douglas London, a self-described “retired Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who served in Central Asia and managed agency counterinsurgency operations.” He asserted in the article that “Putin will face a long, bloody insurgency that will spread across multiple borders” with the potential to create “widening unrest that could destabilize other countries in Russia’s orbit.”

Other notable statements made by London include his assertion that “the United States will invariably be a major and essential source of backing for a Ukrainian insurgency.” He also states that “As the United States learned in Vietnam and Afghanistan, an insurgency that has reliable supply lines, ample reserves of fighters, and sanctuary over the border can sustain itself indefinitely, sap an occupying army’s will to fight, and exhaust political support for the occupation at home.” London explicitly refers to models for this apparently imminent Ukrainian insurgency as the CIA-backed insurgencies in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the “moderate rebels” in Syria from 2011 to the present.

Indeed, when January 6th took place, no real effort was made by Capitol Police or other law enforcement officials present to stop the so-called “riot”, with plenty of footage from the event instead showing law enforcement waving the supposed “insurrectionists” into the Capitol building. This, however, did not stop top politicians and national security officials from labelling January 6th as the “another 9/11” that Neumann had apparently predicted. Notably, the DHS’ first-ever Homeland Threat Assessment, Neumann’s warning, and the subsequent official narrative regarding the events of January 6th were all heavily focused on the threat of “white supremacist terror attacks” on the US homeland.

Returning to the May 2020 Politico article – Graff notes that many supposed pandemic “experts”, which – per Graff – includes Bill Gates and US intelligence officials James Clapper and Dan Coats, had “projected the spread of a novel virus and the economic impacts it would bring as well as “details about the specific challenges” the US would face during the initial phase of the Covid-19 crisis. Graff then asks “What other catastrophes are coming that we aren’t planning for?” According to the “thought leaders” he consulted for this piece, which included several current and former intelligence officials, the most immediate “near-term threat” likely to disrupt life in the US and beyond following Covid was “the Globalization of White Supremacy.”

The black lieutenant governor of Virginia was called a white supremacist because she's allied with the white middle class that is the target of the Baizuo regime. Anyone who is not on their team will be labeled a white supremacist. Any and all links between an individual and a "white supremacist" will fall under terrorism laws, allowing the government to seize your bank account. It's all there being built in real time, out in the open and most of the people who are being targeted by this regime are cheering on their own destruction because they cannot but help to fall for military propaganda.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong. I wish the Ukrainians could win and save their country, but they will not. They will lose. This war was instigated by USG and it is going as planned. The destruction of Ukraine was caused by the United States and its European allies. The antagonization of Russia has been going on for decades and this is the result that everyone with a functioning brain predicted. The isolation of Russia was the goal, paid with the blood of Ukraine. (I have bad news for Taiwan...)

One needn't be pro-Russia to see what is being done, how the corporations and general public are quickly whipped in a frenzy of bloodlust, seeking the total destruction of "the enemy" based on propaganda and lies. It has happened several times in the past few years with different targets. Systemic racism, the police, white nationalism, now Russia. Each with varying degrees of truth behind it or none at all.

What is certain is the regime will collapse under its own weight. Even if it manages to hang on, it will be forced into sacrificing the currency among other assets that will wreck the lives of ordinary Americans. This will stir up dissent. The regime will lash out as it falls, searching for whatever scapegoat is on hand. The squeaky wheel will get raided by SWAT teams at 2am. They will find their bank accounts seized. Lawyers will be afraid to represent them. They will be isolated and alone, then destroyed as an example to everyone else.

The man who deplatforms himself cannot be deplatformed. Even without the threat of persecution, alternatives are a good idea because some U.S. institutions will fail anyway. The closure of the financial markets and banking system could be a conscious choice or caused by a cyberattack. It makes a great deal of sense to have alternative institutions that can survive.

Rumors of War: Chinese Korean War Movie Smashes Records

Global Times: Korean War film breaks records, has implications for today's China-US competition

One day after the Chinese war epic film The Battle at Lake Changjin about the Korean War (1950-53) debuted on Thursday, its box office surpassed 516 million and broke 10 film records as of press time. Observers said the movie's success shows the national feeling displayed in the film echoes the rising public sentiment in safeguarding national interests in front of provocations, which has great implications for today's China-US competition.

...The film leads the box office as it smashed ten box office records on Friday, including “the premiere day box office record,” “single day box office record,” and “cumulative box office record in the National Day holiday” as a historical film.

...A movie-goer who watched the film on premier day commented on Chinese social media Sina Weibo that after watching the film, they indeed had the feeling that Chinese people are not, and have never been, afraid of the US. 70 years ago, the US could not win the Korean War, and they can't win today's trade war either.

...Song Zhongping, a military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times that the high box office of The Battle at Lake Changjin was expected. "The war epic film sheds light on Chinese people's spirit that the Chinese people are firm in safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests and that they are fearless whoever their rivals are," he said.

...In view of the long-lasting China-US strategic rivalry, China needs more films themed on the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, which is helpful to enhance China's cohesion and confidence, said Song Luzheng, an international relations researcher at the China Institute of Fudan University in Shanghai.

If the U.S. instigates a war, China will crush it. The U.S. is in moral collapse. Its leaders tear down their own nation. Half the country thinks the USA is an evil racist nation and the other half hates the government for saying that. Anyone who supports an offensive war with China (via false flag or not) will end up going to their political grave because the loss will be hung on their necks. If China instigates a war against Taiwan and the U.S. stands aside or only meekly intervenes, it's harder to say. The U.S. might turn that into a diplomatic victory somehow, assuming there is a wholesale destruction of the ruling class.

Two Chinas? U.S. Ambassador Visits Taiwan, Calls It a Country Amid Escalating Sino-US Tensions

UPI: U.S. ambassador's visit to Taiwan stirs tough response from China

China warned the United States and Taiwan against cultivating too-close ties after the U.S. Ambassador to Palau John Hennessey-Niland began an official visit to the island nation on Sunday.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Tuesday at a regular press briefing that Beijing opposes any form of government exchange between the United States and "China's Taiwan region."

ZH: China Furious As 1st US Ambassador To Visit Taiwan Since 1979 Calls It A "Country"

"I know that here in Taiwan people describe the relationship between the United States and Taiwan as real friends, real progress and I believe that description applies to the three countries — the United States, Taiwan and Palau," he was cited in Reuters and AFP as saying.

China is extremly hypersensitive about calling Taiwain a country. Even ordinary Chinese citizens are on guard for this and will immediaterly correct you if you reference Taiwan as anything other than a province of China. I was once "corrected" in a totally non-political discussion about how products are labeled by country of origin. I listed off "Made In" countries like Malysia, Mexico, Germany and included Taiwan in the list. This is a huge, huge deal to China. And it will be a huge signal that the Biden admin wants to wreck the U.S.-China relationship if it doesn't quickly say this was a slip of the tongue.

Meanwhile, now even 60 Minutes is spreading the Wuhan-lab origin thesis for coronavirus. I don't trust 60 Minutes as a source. Along with the news aboe, I take this as a signal that the U.S. ruling class might be readying for ultra-escalation with China.

Related. Global Times: Diplomat’s tweet reflects intensifying China-US friction

Third, the China-US and China-West conflicts have intensified. Sentiments on both sides have seen vehemence with rhetoric escalating. The words used by the US and Western politicians are constantly breaking boundaries. For instance, former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and others repeatedly resorted to extreme words such as "evil" to describe CPC and China. The US government has viciously attacked Xinjiang with the label of "genocide." Some US lawmakers have gone even further to target specific Chinese individuals. These are all serious breaches of normal diplomatic etiquette. In general, the language the Chinese side uses is more restrained than their US and Western counterparts.

China Collusion Narrative Has Only Begun

Consider the FBI put Michael Flynn in jail for not committing any crime, for nothing related to Russiagate. It was a manufactured crime.

Consider that U.S. government officials, included elected Senators and House members, corporate CEOs, universities and professors, journalists, medical researchers and more...have extensive ties with China. The FBI could spend years putting people in jail for actual crimes, let alone rack up thousands or tens of thousands of procedural crimes similar to Flynn.

ZH: Rabobank: "How Is This Not Front-Page News?"

the Trump White House is going to “turbocharge” the extraction of supply-chains from China, taking an ‘all of government’ approach; this including financial incentives such as tax cuts or subsidies for those firms; the US is considering higher tariffs and targeted sanctions of Chinese individuals, and even close relations with Taiwan as well; and it wishes to bring other countries with it in a so-called new “Economic Prosperity Network”, which sounds like a combination of the TPP and the Cold War. At any point during the 2018-19 trade war, this would have been front page news. Instead, it got hardly a mention. It did rightly see markets dip somewhat yesterday, but arguably not to the extent the story deserved. It also ignored Peter Navarro following up that “Buy American would soon be the law of the land” for some US government departments.

As I put it before, Russiagate Was Bootloader for China Trade War. Russiagate was one of the worst episodes of jingoism and xenophobia in U.S. history. It also looks like the greatest scandal in American history and the greatest abuse of government power. Watergate is a small thing next to the crimes of Russiagate, which looks like a modern coup attempt. (General Michael Flynn was targeted because he was independent. As NSA advisor, he could dig into who was behind the Russiagate effort.) And since "the Cathedral" doesn't want to have Russiagate blow back on them and turn into something far larger than Watergate, what better way than to redirect all the Russiagate anger into anti-China sentiment? Trump supporters will take their revenge on China colluders, and the unrequited rage of the Russiagaters can also be sated with Chinagate. Trump and the nationalists get their trade war. Globalists get to push back on China as a competitor to U.S. global hegemony. Who's going to stop this train?

The Trump Dump: Forced Divestiture of Chinese Assets

David Webb is war-gaming the next escalation in the trade war and predicts the Trump administration might force U.S. investors to divest Chinese assets.

Webb-site: The Trump Dump: war-gaming the next move against China

Both sides in the US-China trade war appear to be digging in for a long-term battle of ideologies - the US battling for capitalism and open markets, China battling for socialism, central planning and protectionism, baulking at the idea that it should commit to free and fair trade by opening its markets to foreign competition and ownership on a level playing field. The Chinese position is entirely to be expected, because it's right there in the PRC Constitution:

"7. The State-owned economy, namely, the socialist economy under ownership by the whole people, is the leading force in the national economy. The State ensures the consolidation and growth of the State-owned economy."

And although the constitution since a 2004 amendment allows for the private sector, it is very much an appendage to the state-led approach:

"11. The non-public sectors of the economy such as the individual and private sectors of the economy, operating within the limits prescribed by law, constitute an important component of the socialist market economy.

The State protects the lawful rights and interests of the non-public sectors of the economy such as the individual and private sectors of the economy. The State encourages, supports and guides the development of the non-public sectors of the economy and, in accordance with law, exercises supervision and control over the non-public sectors of the economy."

No large-scale economy on Earth has delivered enduring prosperity to its citizens without giving them all the rights and liberties of open society and divesting the state of large-scale involvement in the allocation of capital. China, by relaxing basic controls since 1979, has raised GDP per capita to around a quarter of OECD levels, but it simply cannot centrally-plan its way to OECD levels of prosperity. Unfortunately, the current leadership, with Xi Jinping as the "Core" and surrounded by yes-men, does not recognise that, and believes it can steer China to a socialist "completely developed country" by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Communist takeover of China, masterfully allocating capital as only the Party knows how. It may still take years of economic stagnation before they discover that they are wrong.

China's credit bubble since 2008 is a direct result of its abandonment of reform. China made huge strides by increasing economic liberty, but reform hit a brick wall in 2005. Since then, the government has extended the life of a hybrid command economy with credit growth.

How long will it be before they realise that hundreds of billions of dollars of US pension funds, mutual funds, foundations, endowments and 401(k) retirement plans are invested in the stocks and bonds of Chinese companies listed in the US, HK and the mainland, many of which are either state-controlled or heavily influenced or protected by the Chinese government? Not only that, but some of the world's biggest asset managers are also US-headquartered - the likes of Fidelity, Blackrock and Capital Group manage not just the assets of US citizens but of other citizens around the world, investing their money in Chinese securities.

In the opposite direction, China applies very strict controls to the outflow of its citizens' capital, restricting them to contrived schemes like the Southbound HKEX "Stock Connect" (mostly investing in Chinese companies) and limiting overseas cash withdrawals to CNY100k (about USD15k) per citizen per year. It's one way that the Chinese Yuan is propped up against overseas currencies, and if you need any evidence of the over-valuation of the CNY and the way capital is trapped, then look at the premium at which mainland A-shares trade to the H-shares of the same company. The shares are economically equal but, at current exchange rates, the A-shares are priced at a 26% premium to their HK counterparts.

When each side has exhausted the potential for trade-damage by tariffs (and the US has inflicted all the self-harm it can bear), if not sooner, we would not be surprised to see Mr Trump apply capital sanctions and force US Persons to dump their holdings of Chinese equities and bonds. They have potentially wide scope to do this, using the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). According to its web site:

"[OFAC] administers and enforces economic and trade sanctions based on US foreign policy and national security goals against targeted foreign countries and regimes, terrorists, international narcotics traffickers, those engaged in activities related to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and other threats to the national security, foreign policy or economy of the United States."

OFAC's powers were demonstrated in Apr-2018 when it ordered US Persons to divest, and stop dealing with, Russian aluminium firm United Company Rusal plc, on the grounds that it was controlled by a man who is close to the Russian regime. OFAC cited the regime's occupation of Crimea, support of President Assad's regime in Syria, and attempts to subvert Western democracies. US Persons were ordered to divest Rusal within a month. The HK-listed shares plunged, and for a while it was even impossible to get a stock price from US-based information providers, who were prohibited from dealing with the firm. Index-providers and credit-ratings agencies also had to drop coverage. Eventually the sanctions were lifted following a rearrangement of directors and shareholdings.

Many critics like to clip President Trump's statement about winning trade wars. He said, "When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win..." The U.S. strength lies in the asymmetric relationship between China and the U.S. No matter which way trade goes, the U.S. will gain more than China from a rebalancing. If the war is scored in geopolitical terms (power is a zero-sum game), the U.S. gains more by sinking China than it does from opening China.

For the CCP, there may be no winning move. Many of the reforms demanded by the U.S. were abandoned or slow-walked over the past 20 years. It's dragging its heels on crucial reforms such as a real estate tax that would help move cities off the centrally-directed land finance and infrastructure investment model.

The U.S. gains economically if it can force open China, but will eventually lose relative power as China's economy grows even faster, funding quicker military modernization and most likely, more technology transfer. The U.S. wins more geopolitically if it isolates China's economy, driving other foreign nations away from its state-run economy. The British used a diplomatic isolation strategy against Germany before the beginning of World War I.

The U.S. is following the Logic of Strategy. It does not need to build a coalition of allies. Other nations will join the U.S. because it is in their own self-interest. China cannot offer a better deal to any regional states that worry about their sovereignty, only to those who focus solely on economic growth. To the extent China rejects reform, it will be unable to challenge either a U.S. carrot or a U.S. stick.

Deportation Talk Begins

The topic of deportation of Europe's Muslims has been broached by Stratfor.

A War Between Two Worlds

Europe's sense of nation is rooted in shared history, language, ethnicity and yes, in Christianity or its heir, secularism. Europe has no concept of the nation except for these things, and Muslims share in none of them. It is difficult to imagine another outcome save for another round of ghettoization and deportation. This is repulsive to the European sensibility now, but certainly not alien to European history. Unable to distinguish radical Muslims from other Muslims, Europe will increasingly and unintentionally move in this direction.

Civil unrest, civil war and secession coming to America? Or World War III?

I tend to dismiss articles such as the one linked below, which ascribe a conspiracy to the inevitable (such as the collapse of the dollar), but from the standpoint of socionomic analysis, it doesn't matter whether it is true or not. What matters is that people believe it, the mood it reveals, and for forecasting purposes, whether people will act on it. When we look at Catalonia, Scotland or any secession movement, it doesn't matter if Catalans or Scots believe there is a conspiracy against them, or if their post-secession economic forecast is 180 degrees wrong, what matters is what they believe going into a secession vote.

In socionomics, we are often looking from the center out, from the standpoint of a group or individual. However, one can also see action from without. That is to say, a nation may not feel negatively towards a foreign power, but the negative action of that power could lead to war. Similarly, when looking at secessionists and anti-government sentiment, we could be seeing the intentional instigation of anti-government behavior because the government is also beholden to social mood. To use a recent example, the Oklahoma City bombing was partially blamed on talk radio and anti-government media. However, one could have just as easily blamed government policies and propaganda targeting guns, since the assault weapon ban and Brady bill preceded the attacks.

Catalonian secession cropped up so quickly, that one can reasonably ask if the Spanish government or Spanish people have not taken some anti-Catalonian action? In the case of Quebec, it's almost entirely a domestically driven movement, but outside pressure could be the trigger that makes Quebecois decide to leave once and for all. In the U.S., we see secessionist talk, but often the response to Southern nationalism is to deride Southern rednecks and say that America is better off without them. And certainly, in the run-up to the Civil War, the North was pressing its economic and political advantage upon the South.

What it boils down to in places such as the United States, where there are no established movements, is that secessionist movements will not be organic. Secession will be a reaction, not the action. The action will be oppression, the rise in authoritarianism that comes during negative social mood. The drive for secession will be the reaction to authoritarianism; it is the asymmetric response to a threat from a superior enemy.

As I've written before, negative social mood is necessary, it is part of the cycle of history. Negative social mood is the reaction that balances the positive social mood, cleaning out the failed policies of government, bankrupting the failed businesses, and settling long-simmering disputes. The particulars of how it is settled can be a net positive or negative for a nation: the United States, Russia, Germany, Japan and China all traveled divergent paths in the early 20th Century, and the choices they made impacted their nations for decades.

There's no need for secession or violent conflict, civil or international. However, governments that fail to understand social mood will make mistakes. They will behave in ways that leave their opposition with no way to act except via violent means, or they will respond to peaceful movements with violence.

Consider the current gun debate in the United States. The history is clear: last time this debate took place, there was a major act of domestic terrorism, and that happened while social mood was still net positive. Today, social mood is negative and falling. A wise government would look to defuse the situation, but instead, nearly every action of the government feeds conspiracy theories. Those inclined to believe conspiracy theories will always believe in them, but those who normally do not believe in them, start believing them when the government behaves as predicted by the theorists.

The latest from “DHS Insider”

RB: [Over talk/Unintelligible] ...know who was selected or elected twice now. You know who his associates are. And you are saying this is way over the top? Don’t forget what Ayers said - you talked to Larry Grathwohl. This guy is a revolutionary. He does not want to transform our country in the traditional sense. He will destroy it. And he’s not working alone. He’s not working for himself, either. He has his handlers. So don’t think this is going to be a walk in the park, with some type of attempt to rescue the country. Cloward-Piven. Alinsky. Marx. All rolled into one. And he won’t need the rest of his four years to do it.

DH: I need you to be clear. Let’s go back again, I mean, to those who speak out about what’s happening.

RB: [Edit note: Obviously irritated] How much clearer do you want it? The Second Amendment will be gone, along with the first, at least practically or operationally. The Constitution will be gone, suspended, at least in an operational sense. Maybe they won’t actually say that they are suspending it, but will do it. Like saying the sky is purple when it’s actually blue. How many people will look at the sky and say yeah, it’s purple? They see what they want to see.

So the DHS, working with other law enforcement organizations, especially the TSA as it stands right now, will oversee the confiscation of assault weapons, which includes all semi-automatic weapons following a period of so-called amnesty. It also includes shotguns that hold multiple rounds, or have pistol grips. They will go after the high capacity magazines, anything over, say 5 rounds.

They will also go after the ammunition, especially at the manufacturer’s level. They will require a special license for certain weapons, and make it impossible to own anything. More draconian than England. This is a global thing too.

People are agitated about guns, and nothing the government is doing today is designed to calm the population. It's doing the exact opposite, driving people to buy more guns and ammunition.

Now here's more of the conspiracy:

During all of this, and you’ve got to remember that the dollar collapse is a big part of this, our country is going to have to be redone. I’ve seen - personally - a map of North America without borders. Done this year. The number 2015 was written across the top, and I believe that was meant as a year. Along with this map - in the same area where this was - was another map showing the United States cut up into sectors. I’m not talking about what people have seen on the internet, but something entirely different. Zones. And a big star on the city of Denver.

Sound like conspiracy stuff on the Internet? Yup. But maybe they were right. It sure looks that way. It will read that way if you decide to write about this. Good luck with that. Anyway, the country seemed to be split into sectors, but not the kind shown on the internet. Different.

DH: What is the context of that?

RB: Across the bottom of this was written economic sectors. It looked like a work in progress, so I can’t tell you any more than that. From the context I think it has to do with the collapse of the dollar.

Most people cannot conceive of a collapse in the U.S. dollar. Despite the economic forecasts that have existed for nearly 40 years now, the vast majority of people do not expect a collapse of the dollar. Even those who buy precious metals and expect the dollar to undergo a crisis haven't thought through what the world will look like if the dollar collapses. I would bet that a larger percentage of the population believes that Obama wants to destroy America and the U.S. dollar. Therefore, if the dollar does collapse, what's going to be the response? Besides anger at Wall Street and Washington, will people have serious debates about the monetary system? Will they gravitate to Ron Paul? Or will they believe that the collapse was a conspiracy, part of a plot by a government that is simultaneously trying to confiscate their weapons and violate the most important right listed in the Bill of Rights?

A Survey of U.S. Secessionism: Negative Social Mood Will Vent — but Where?

Examples from the past and present show that common enemies often forestall civil wars. War with Carthage redirected ancient Rome’s internal conflict for many years. Once Rome defeated its enemy, civil war intensified and the empire began its famous decline. The Spanish-American War in the decades following the U.S. Civil War provided a common enemy that helped to heal the residual bitterness between North and South. The 1919 Anglo-Afghan War united long-adversarial Pashtun tribes against the British. As Euan Wilson described in the January 2010 Socionomist, the intensity of the Chinese Civil War waned when Japan expanded its incursion from northern China into Manchuria. After Finland lost its common enemy and oppressor, Russia, during the Russo-Japanese war, it promptly erupted in civil war. A prolonged political enmity followed, but it eased when Finns again faced a common enemy in World War II. In 2009, previously hostile Pakistan and Afghan Taliban factions united to oppose the buildup of 17,000 U.S. troops. Recent reports show Taliban groups again bonding as they face the current 30,000 troop American surge.

...Politicians and government propagandists are well aware that the portrayal of a common enemy can rouse emotional solidarity and group identity, which in turn redirects internal dissent and discord. Alexander De Conde’s History of American Foreign Policy says William Seward, Lincoln’s Secretary of State, advocated “a policy of hostility or war” against several European nations to “win back the loyalty of the seceded states and avoid civil war.” But Lincoln famously urged “one war at a time” and refused to initiate or respond to foreign provocations during the war.

What's the most likely response to growing secessionist talk in the United States? A foreign war.