Chinese Baby Gets Leukemia After 15 Days in New Home; New Chinese House More Dangerous Than Chernobyl

According to this article, a child came down with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) after living in a newly renovated home for 15 days. Chinese often do not move into a new home for at least a year due to fear of indoor pollution and doctors believe the child's leukemia may be the result of living in a newly renovated home. The articles says a study found that the rate of ALL illness is almost 5 times higher among children if they move into a home within 6 months of renovation.

My initial reaction is to disbelieve this story, since 15 days seems incredibly fast. I would expect this from a nuclear disaster and this study, Patterns of acute leukaemia occurrence among children in the Chernobyl region, found the rate of ALL incidence was 3 times higher among children in the regions exposed to radiation. Indoor air pollution is more dangerous due to sustained exposure though, so it seems plausible. In any event, Chinese are deeply concerned about pollution and this story rising to the top of the housing section of iFeng reflects that.

新装修房住了15天 宝宝患上白血病
Many domestic and international survey data confirmed: indoor air pollution caused by large amounts of toxic gases, than outdoor overcast sky to be much more frightening. Leukemia, lung cancer, birth defects ...... these shocking words and more and more " decoration pollution "together. Recently, this reporter went to Nanjing Children's Hospital Department of Hematology, saw the child extends the age of two months short of his relatives because newly renovated house lived 15 days, resulting in acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Relatives live in a new house baby 15 days

When the reporter saw in the hospital hematology ward lovely Susu, he was happily playing with toys, if not living room, reporters do not see that he is a sick baby.

Susu's mother told reporters that the first half of this year, a relative extends the marriage, they took extends the last play.

I did not expect Susu stayed five days later, sudden fever. Extends the family immediately took to the hospital, and found no abnormal blood.

After treatment, extends the high fever, so we will not care.

Later, extends parents because to go out, then newly married to the Susu relatives to take care of, so Susu and relatives who lives in the 10 days.

Multiple bruising was diagnosed with leukemia

This time, when he extends the parents will pick back from relatives and found Susu body bruising, initially considered to be too naughty children often fall cause, can not even subsided bruising part of a trend, so they came to Nanjing City Children's Hospital found that blood abnormalities, further careful examination, I did not expect is acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Susu's parents immediately plunged into misery, the child is so small, how will suffer from such a serious disease? Doctors said the disease may lead to a new house is the child stay.

4.76-fold increased risk of illness stay in a renovated six months

Nanjing Children's Hospital, director of Hematology Fang Yongjun said, acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) accounts for 80% of children with acute leukemia, the incidence peaks between 3 to 7 years old. If the correct diagnosis and appropriate treatment, 80% -85% of patients as healthy people can survive long-term.

During 2007 to 2012, 方拥军 and his team have been investigation, the reasons for the prevalence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia. After investigation of 570 cases of the disease in children, but also look for the 1000 cases of normal children as a comparison, the results of the study showed that within six months the newly renovated room occupancy of 4.76 times increased risk of illness.

It is understood that the study has received peer recognition abroad. "Studies in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia pathogenesis" 方拥军 and its research team has named this magazine published in the United States, "Leukemia" and the British magazine "leukemia and lymphoma" magazine. (Correspondent Wu Ye Jinling Evening News reporter Su Liping) returns Nanjing 365 real estate network


Systematic Fraud and Corruption in Land Sales Threatens Economy

The word epic is overused these days, but it may apply in the case of China's local government land sale abuses. With the audit underway, information is starting to leak out as developers and government officials start talking. The scale of the problem is still unknown, but there's reason to be concerned by the numerous ways local governments have rigged land sales and inflated prices. It is not an exaggeration to say that if the examples listed in the Chinese article below are not isolated cases, then even the most bearish forecast for the Chinese economy is far too optimistic.

During the housing bubble, Chinese media often reported on a local "land king," a developer who paid an extraordinarily high price at a government land auction. Now we know why they were willing to pay sometimes seemingly absurd prices: the government was kicking back up to 80% of the total amount paid. Governments had already chosen the developer and fixed the price for the land, including signed contracts, with the auction a mere show for the public. If the auction price went above the contract price, the government would return the developer's money, plus interest.

Besides fixing a land sale before the auction, governments also reimbursed developers for development costs such as roads, sewers, and improvements. Land prices rose very quickly because once developer costs were included in the land sale price, developers starting running up costs, for example turning a ¥100 million project into ¥500 million. Then if the land auction went for ¥1 billion, the developer would only have to pay ¥500 million for the land, with the other half reimbursed. This helps explain why land sales totaled ¥130 billion in 2001, but last year, land sales totaled more than ¥4 trillion, an increase of 30 times. The total sales over this decade plus comes to nearly ¥20 trillion.

Governments also forced their state-owned enterprises to join in land auctions once the market cooled, in a process that was in essence moving money from one pocket into the other. As was previously reported, this also worked in reverse as governments sometimes used proceeds from land sales to prop up their SOEs. Other times they told developers to stay away and transferred land to SOEs at cost.

Aside from the corruption involved, the worst aspect of this is the distorted market signals sent by high land prices. This adds a new layer the bear case because prices were not only elevated to unsustainable levels by the credit bubble, but went beyond into truly artificial territory. There's also the land finance aspect: governments have trillions of yuan in loans from banks backed by land sale revenue, but did governments report the gross or net revenue to banks? This issue alone could severely impair bank's ability to lend if governments have been overstating their land sale revenue to banks.

What most worrisome is that the audit prior to the current strict audit found 95% of the provinces surveyed had evidence of corruption in land sales. A single case is evidence, so we can't guess the scale of the problem, but there is no good news coming. The "good" news will be the problem is indeed isolated and costs limited. The bad news will be the real estate crisis you thought existed is really far worse than imagined.

地方政府为保地价返还出让金 出让环节成腐败高发区
Core Tip: Behind 20 trillion land transfer audit storm, hidden local governments and developers ineffable secrets. Enterprise has been able to withstand the high land to the king, because after nearly 50 percent of the total available land returned. This not only leads to frequent the king, disguised push high prices , but also the breeding ground for huge rent-seeking space.

Behind 20 trillion land transfer audit storm, hidden local governments and developers ineffable secrets.

"Some enterprises are able to withstand the high land to the king, because after nearly 50 percent of the total available land be returned if plots involving shantytowns, premium refund amount up to more than 80 percent." Shenzhen Golden Eagle Real Estate Marketing Director Lin Xiaohua said that some companies may encounter some time to get to the restrictive barriers, including supporting hotels, large commercial, etc., the government will give financial subsidies or refund part of the land transfer.

Hunan Provincial Association of Realtors chief economist Wang Gao told the "China Times" reporter, some directed to sell the land, in essence, already locked developers, "the auction link, you can always shoot down until photographed so far, anyway, than the two sides agreed prices and spend more money, and finally the government will be returned to the developer. "

This land transfer and then return the model, not only lead to frequent the king, disguised push up prices, but also leads to a lot of places in the land auction and a mere formality, and the breeding of a huge rent-seeking space.

Private return part transfer

"I personally signed this contract, that is, before the auction, the agreement stipulates that if the auction price exceeds the contract, the Government shall own with interest returned to the developer." Housing prices listed Shenzhen Investment and Development of a department official told reporters By way of return of land transfer, reducing the cost of developers get the government to earn more investment and employment, as well as banks carrying water.

MLR data show that the national land transfer price of 129.6 billion yuan from 2001, to more than four trillion yuan last year for the first time, 13 years, an increase over 30 times, the cumulative total of nearly 20 trillion yuan.

"This land transfer 20 trillion yuan artificially high ingredient actually exists." Person of Shenzhen Investment and Development Department Housing prices listed above said.

He further said that after the transfer if it is directed, the starting price of land at public sale, often determined by the government to seek the views of developers, and specific matters relating to the transfer price of the return of a supplemental agreement entered into by the parties. Developers of the land supply, the investment cost of electricity, sewage, gas pipeline network and other municipal utilities and roads, the government returned to the developer.

"Auction of land designated by the Government shall require all into account, down the account, and then to the other on behalf of the government returned to us." The Investment and Development Department, told reporters that the mainstream approach is by doing high-level developers to pre-development costs , then the land shall be deducted, in this way for developers and government are safe.

"Early land preparation and demolition, building schools or roads to help the government, if in fact, spent 100 million yuan, you can do bigger and engineering costs as high as 500 million yuan, after the auction by the government on behalf of these infrastructure 500 million yuan returned to the developer if the land sold 1 billion yuan, 500 million yuan developers only pay the difference. "The investment and development department sources said, the return of land and there is no strict procedure, costs just get made The Government agreed to, if the program must publicity, by the Government to find a company to do the high assessment to assess the price.

Director of a listed Strategic Housing prices Yangtze River Delta region, told reporters, in some newly developed local district government in order to attract large-scale investment in housing prices, but also set up many projects, such as Green Building Award, Innovation Award and Environmental Design Award, etc. , in the form of bonuses disguised subsidies for housing prices.

"Some single award recognizes not by much, it will issue multiple awards, sometimes spiritual civilization will award all placed in the names, but there are also some projects, an award is basically to cover the cost of Kin." Housing prices above long Strategic Triangle Regional Director explained that his company in a three-city project cast, won the local government issued a Green Building Pilot multiple awards, sold per one square meter can get 1800-3000 yuan in subsidies.

Yangtze River Delta city in a financial department told reporters, because of a similar subsidy agreement requires governments and developers, but also cooperate with each other in the actual financial docking, such as housing prices need to land a one-time paid money, and the return of subsidies can be arrived land shall, therefore housing prices due to the large state-owned auditing stronger, more favored by the local government.

"If the local government simply give the land concessions, it is difficult to raise land prices, because developers in return for cost accounting and there is not much difference between the estimates, so the local housing prices need to be able to behold with an auction and behind The series of work. "Housing prices above director.

Easy formality auction

This land transfer return mode, resulting in a lot of land auction procedures mere formality.

"One time, we want to shoot long samet chihu zone, but the local government greet us and told us not to shoot, and finally by the Department of Finance, a subsidiary of state-owned enterprises competing in a zero premium." Changsha, a developer told reporters.

"When the market cooled, the government will come forward to take to prop up the state-owned enterprises, shoot high premium, in fact, down the right hand or left hand, superficial, not much really get our hands on government land revenue, earned just flowing financial bank card only . "Housing prices above Shenzhen Investment and Development Ministry sources, sometimes by the local government will take high ground, and afterwards returned to the developer's mode pulled region premium.

According to Wang high understood that this situation often occurs in a substantial land around the city, the government hopes the big developers to promote regional development, tend to land none other investment [ Introduction News ], such as a large public housing prices in Guangzhou last year in Changsha Liuyang shot of a piece of land is the "virtual shoot."

Under the current practice, the land transfer fee, paid in addition to superior financial part, entirely responsible for the use of the remaining expenditure by local government, land department has no right to intervene. Since the land transfer revenue management in a blank state law, there is no clear legal provisions, there is no corresponding constraint, always drifted away from public scrutiny. In addition to accepting some modest efforts to audit, most of the "closed operation."

Wang Gao said, the land is not included in the budget revenues, the report submitted to the National People's Congress place during the annual "two sessions", and does not include land transfer. Lack of supervision, resulting in transfer of benefits uncommon phenomenon.

"Auction will be two cases, one is taken away by other developers, the other is their win. Situation arises if the premium is too high, such as conventions 1 billion yuan, sold 2 billion yuan, maybe we do not, let other housing prices shot away, the extra one billion yuan, we divided with the government, but this happens rarely. "These investments Development Ministry sources said.

Wang told reporters that high, due to the developers before the auction only paid the deposit, the extra land premium payment is not required, simply change the contract privately again. "Anyway, how much financial fetched, and no one checked, simply press the contract money to finance."

"This approach has more than a decade, has been very common, land transfer link is a high incidence of corruption." Housing prices listed above Shenzhen Investment and Development department official said, "have gifts for officials in charge of the specific size of the project and see the amount of profit If the developers earn a million to send out for a twenty million does not matter. "


UKIP Still Rising

A major defection to UKIP shows the party's ascent hasn't peaked.

Douglas Carswell's defection to Ukip is a seismic shock to the British political system
This is why I believe that Mr Carswell’s decision to quit the Tory party and join Nigel Farage’s Ukip is a seismic political event. He cannot be compared to the ordinary self-interested political defections, for instance Shaun Woodward or Quentin Davies’ departure from the Conservatives to New Labour, in 2001 and 2007 respectively. Mr Carswell, and this is completely terrifying for David Cameron, is acting out of conviction rather than self-interest. It is greatly to the credit of Mr Carswell that, in striking contrast to Woodward or Davies, he has called a by-election to fight his Essex constituency, where he may even stand a chance of success. If he wins, he will have broken every known rule of politics. It has always been assumed that the individual vote which an incumbent MP can attract is a fraction of that commanded by the party which he represents. If Mr Carswell carries Clacton, a political convulsion will have taken place.

Outside Audit Lowers Hunan Trust Collateral From ¥1.4 Billion To ¥0.5 Billion

Doubtful that Hunan Trust is the only firm overstating its assets.......

湖南信托公告曝光 抵押估值降为5亿
Recently, because of China Chen future information management project breach into the vortex of public opinion Hunan Trust, in August 26 issued a second announcement.

Although the announcement said, will actively promote substantial risk treatment projects, but Hunan Trust said that after the assessment of collateral that the collateral valuation at 500 million yuan or more, which also means that the valuation of Hunan Trust's announcement to overthrow its value due diligence reports provided $ 1.4 billion said. In this regard, the "Daily Economic News" reporter contacted Hunan Trust, Hunan Trust, said all the announcement, did not respond.

In addition, the "Daily Economic News" reporter learned from investors, investor Hunan Trust has proposed a new solution.

Investors said the realizable collateral doubts

August 14, Hunan Trust issued on Huachen future information management projects first announcement, Hunan Trust claimed that he was just the channel side of the project and put all the responsibility to collect only 0.2 percent of state trust management side, to distance themselves from their responsibilities .

After the first announcement, has been questioned many investors and the media. In the August 26 release of the second announcement, Hunan Trust attitude changed, no longer mention channels.

Investors Lu on the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said, "China and Hunan Trust Chen future contracts is that they took their company's seal, went Guoyuan Trust sign, and this point is to overthrow the Hunan Trust said he is the channel argument. "

The second announcement mentioned Hunan Trust said it commissioned a professional evaluation agency collateral items were carefully evaluated, considered a conservative valuation of collateral in 500 million yuan or more.

However, due diligence reports, Hunan Trust's assessment of the collateral value of 14 billion yuan, which means the overthrow of Hunan Trust own due diligence to assess the report.

"This shows the authenticity of Hunan Trust due diligence investigation report, the valuation of their own due diligence investigation report will be overturned on notice." Zhang said investors "Daily Economic News" reporter.

In the second announcement, Hunan Trust also raised realized on the disposal of collateral issues. In this regard, Mr. Lu told reporters, "I personally went to Longyan seen that piece of land, the land surrounding the project is not completed on schedule is not developed, and according to local Longyan upset, Hunan Trust to 500 million yuan if the price of disposal So no one is willing to take the disk, so the idea of ​​Hunan Trust provided the current situation is difficult to achieve. "

Hunan Trust propose new solutions

Reporters learned that the person in charge of a surname Yang in Hunan Trust to investors, Mr. Zhang's phone, providing a new idea, the first payment of interest, then a rigid payment.

Zhang on the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said Yang Hunan Trust proposed by several financial institutions involved in the management fee to withdraw, investors have to pay interest due, "After solving the interest of investors , give them 10 months to deal with collateral and restructuring, to achieve the realization of collateral. "

In addition, Yang Zhang Hunan Trust also said, "If the 10-month period can not be resolved, it would give them two months to complete if we can not, then let five financial institutions share a commitment by any financial institutions to launch a collection of trust, let a single disk access Trust Trust this collection before, to achieve a rigid honor. "

According to the reporter, Hunan Trust and another four are actively in talks, "mainly Hua Chen future have to agree, but this too requires Hua Chen Hua Chen future major shareholders to agree to the trust, otherwise rely solely on the strength of future Hua Chen can not be achieved. "Zhang told reporters.

Hunan Trust for proposed solutions, Mr. Zhang told reporters that "the program can still talk, but this time we can not accept investors, time is too long, we can not afford."

In addition, Zhang also told reporters that the first is that the five financial institutions should recognize their responsibilities, but they are not publicly acknowledged, so the idea to implement some distance, "Of course, if you make that several Hunan Trust financial institutions to accept this solution, we do not oppose, but the time is not too long, the purpose of our investors is to get their principal and interest due as soon as possible. "

The proposed new program Hunan Trust, Trust insiders Huang Yong on the "Daily Economic News" reporter, said, "At present, the Trust rigid single payment no precedent, Hua Chen future information management project is now a single trust, investors require Hunan Trust conducted Rigid cashing difficult to implement, but the establishment of a collection of Hunan Trust provides trust, then the rigid payment is feasible, of course, this requires the consent of Hunan Trust four other financial institutions. "

Hundreds of Billions Expected to Flow From Property Market to Stock Market

Stocks are much cheaper than property and now that the property market is cooling, pension funds and other investors are changing their outlooks on the two asset classes. This is going to be a major turn in market sentiment, but it has barely even begun.

千亿资金弃房炒股 社保基金青睐10股
Property investment property or weakening of billions fought in the stock market

July A shares open a wave of rising prices , accompanied by trading volume increase. Compared with the stock market getting warmer, the property market is still hovering in the downturn. Real estate development and investment growth continued to fall, real estate sales also continue to decline.

According to Reporters survey found, with the weakening of the real estate investment properties, including developers, part of the funds, including the brewing of hot money into the stock market. According to industry estimates, the size of funds to evacuate the property market will reach one hundred billion yuan. In economic stabilization, such as Shanghai and Hong Kong through the expected start, driven by incremental funding will have a certain impact on the stock market.

Property funds brewing approach

Cui is a small city in the south, chairman of developer, recently invited to participate in a large-scale real estate investment promotion. Unlike in the past, this time the developers attending the heat was cool.

"Golden period property has been coming to an end, the future is not without investment opportunities, but real estate will become very difficult to earn money, success or failure depends on investment perspective." In the real estate industry for many years of Cui, hold the hands of a city located in Hebei real estate projects, despite the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and support, but Cui still figuring out how "abandoned house ashore."

"Real estate assets after all heavy industry, and years of silence capital markets, but it has clear signs of recovery. Around my friends have started mobilizing funds fought in the stock market, according to a reporter," real estate circles of friends recently took a few pieces of land to Guangdong do financing, and called several projects are more likely to enter into A shares. "

Due to the current real estate market suffered regulation, housing prices in the business environment is becoming increasingly difficult. From real estate projects take place, planning, approval and then to start construction, are facing more challenges. Coupled with the slowdown in the flow of capital, many small and medium housing prices is difficult to keep up with the follow-up project, and then brewing the new investment.

"I have two projects currently in the hands of one into the sales cycle, project planning after another waiting for approval to start construction." Cui said that in addition to project the necessary working capital, he has begun to transfer funds to batches owned investment company, waiting waiting A large market shares.

"It's not a secret in the circle, not to say that companies began to stocks , nor that developers want to give up the main industry, but finding the right to invest funds for the account tummy. "It is a real estate insiders told reporters, currently a domestic Large developers are planning to ten billion yuan of funds to the brokerage of financial , designated A-share market to invest. "If the A-share market prices over the next year, the developers certainly do not want to miss the opportunity to make money." The person with respect.

Just some developers brewing to put money into the stock market, under the background of market regulation, some social funds removed hot money began to enter the market, according to the reporter found visited the part of the brokerage business department, many of the "big" has already started to pay attention signs the property market funds . For A-shares since July rally, these stocks "veteran" who have their own opinions, in addition to the macro- expected improvement in the external, foreign Zengcang market, the central enterprises to reform the subject of speculation and other factors, the property market funds also mentioned a lot of people.

"Recently I have learned into the market looking for a lot of people do, but really throw the house to stocks of small, basically idle funds, but now come before going to real estate stocks." In Beijing Financial Street in the vicinity of a brokerage business department, A share has ten years of age, "big" told reporters that the property market in mutual funds already in the flow, especially in some companies and private equity funds, there are many active before the real estate market, it is now part into the stock market.

Some brokerage business department account manager also told the reporter that the recent slight increase in the number of new accounts over the previous total account customers also increased. Chinese settlement data show that 7 A shares since the end of the growing number of new accounts, to August 15 a week, more than 150,000 of new accounts size has a new high of nearly 20 weeks since. This means that the OTC market is accelerating the pace of investors.

Real estate investment properties decreased

China's real estate market through ten years of " golden age when, "in the past, even in the event of market volatility or inflationary pressures, increasing the value still showing characteristics. It is easy for investors to generate buy a house "makes money" idea. However, with the deepening of the current regulation of real estate, property investment property has been significantly weakened.

Market participants pointed out that the current property market structure is changing, investment buyers demand is gradually exit the market, in order to improve the type of the first set and the demand for housing has become the main market players. After the investment property fade, "speculation" funds in capital driven by profit-driven nature will flow to other values, "depression", while the A shares is to choose one.

"The current stock market is much lower than the extent of the property bubble, there is some upside, but stock market lower threshold than property investment easier to attract capital into the sidelines." An unnamed brokerage analysts believe that although very Difficult specific estimates of hot money out of the property market in the figures, but it would be great magnitude, could reach hundreds of billions of scale. "Although we can not say that these funds will be fully into the stock market, but there will be some impact on the market." The analyst bluntly.

In fact, once familiar scene staged in 2010. At the beginning of 2010, the State Council issued the "National 11", differentiated credit policy implementation requires increased efforts to rectify the real estate market. In April it announced resolutely curb housing prices in some cities "ten countries." September to consolidate the results of market regulation measures "five countries" were introduced, clearly stated on the price too high, soaring, supply the city, to limit the purchase of copy number of households within a certain time. Soon after, differentiated credit policy and related tax policies have been introduced.

Policy of gradual tightening in the property market background, the second half of 2010 the real estate market correction, the continuous decline in national housing climate index, 70 cities real estate price index also appears decline. Correspondingly, the stock market in the second half of 2010 had a rebound, and once stood above 3,000 points, picked up new accounts and the market showing signs of incremental funding. That time, including gold companies, including a number of brokerage firms have released a report, originally expected active in the field of real estate funds will flow to other areas, the size of funds at least 500 billion yuan or more.

"There are a number of different situations, and in 2010 when now live." Above brokerage analysts said, although the property market in 2010 after the encounter policy control, some speculation capital outflows. But then the global economic downturn, the domestic macro-economic growth continues to decline, the stock market does not have the upside momentum. However, the current global economy gradually stabilized, accelerating the transformation of economic structure, the market is expected to shift taking place.

"This year, this wave of market stock funds rely more stimulating venue, once a certain gains, may be a correction, which also created the conditions for a new funding approach. Crucial next step is to take the cattle A-share funds willingness approach , whether diversion of funds from the property, or industrial capital into the fund, the focus is whether the volume continues to expand, and into the incremental funding will further activation of the Chinese capital market. "above analyst bluntly.

Market expectations feed into key

Historically, when ample liquidity, generally a positive correlation between the stock and property markets, but in the present, "a wall of a sparse," the special period, the two began to show the shift in the relationship. Insiders pointed out that investors' expectations of future stock and property markets will be capital flows, the key is located.

Under the dual role of macro-control and regulation of real estate, the value of real estate investment began to fall, home demand gradually become the main support of the market. Although there are many cities added to the ranks of purchase of the policy of deregulation, but from the point of view of the industry in general, "to house" trend of China's economic growth has not changed.

UBS released report shows that in 2013 the amount of housing construction was significantly higher than that of Chinese urbanization and update improves the birth of housing demand. Falling house prices, the future of real estate tax and the rise of new investment channels will continue to curb investment demand, which means that the next few years, real estate supply must be adjusted to a lower "new normal." UBS analysts believe that although the credit weakness in July, the real economy rebound suspended, but external demand is expected to continue to improve, continue moderately loose policy will help economic growth in the next two months to keep healthy.

At the same time, continuing a steady partial easing of liquidity is also expected to allow the market to worry about the financial side weakened. Shanghai and Hong Kong in particular, through the advance of the blue-chip underestimate the value of A shares continue upward played a role.

According to a major bank executives revealed that the current funding from the bank pulled probably follow two paths, one intended to switch to the A-share market, waiting for investment opportunities in the A-share market. Another part of the funds have fled Hong Kong signs. "On the one hand, Hong Kong stocks listed company dividends and other higher returns, on the other hand also waiting to see China's economic situation. "the source said.

It is understood, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the promotion of a positive result in the accumulation of a large number of overseas capital market in Hong Kong. There are agencies estimated that nearly two months, a total of 16 full launch in Hong Kong 65 billion Hong Kong dollars to hedge against the dollar . Overseas funds are not currently convertible into yuan, mainly purchased RQFII and ETF, but does not rule with the Hong Kong and Shanghai through approaching, overseas funds to enter the mainland market, become part of the A-share market incremental funding.

Who is the Next Developer to Collapse?

Chinese media once again refute those who claim the Western media is too negative on China.

No specific answer to the question of which developer will collapse in this long article covering the cooling market, falling sales, shrinking cash levels at developers, debate over the need for a bailout, etc., only a general argument that more developers are going to go bankrupt given current trends.


That headline translates to: Property Market Winter: Who is the next developer to collapse? (Link goes to Google Translated version)

一举两得: Relief for Local Govt Also Boost Financial Sector

The reforms of Xi and Li have a problem. On the one hand, they must constrain local governments' ability to interfere in the market, including falling back on the "easy" growth model of infrastructure development. On the other hand, there's going to be a serious debt crisis if the property market slows and cities can't borrow. Solution: cut financing costs.

China's local governments can swap out of pricey debt: FinMin
In a speech in parliament about China's fiscal system, Lou said China will control the amount of money borrowed by its regional governments by ensuring that all their debt is accounted for in their budgets.

Regional governments, responsible for the bulk of China's public spending but getting less than their share of total fiscal income compared to the central government, have relied on borrowing heavily in recent years to stay viable.

To ease the financing pressure, Lou said governments that are stuck with expensive debt can replace them with cheaper municipal bonds - subject to approvals - to lower their interest payments. No further details were given.

The comments on muni bonds comes as the government launches the strict land sale and land finance audit. It is not a coincidence. Allowing local governments to lower their debt financing costs is a very pragmatic reform that deals with the crisis threat, but doesn't let local governments off the hook.

This reform plan also kills many birds with one stone. The local governments can swap their debt, but will still be restrained by large debt levels. It creates a new market for savings to compete with shadow banks. It helps develop internal financial markets and importantly, deeper bond markets that will be necessary for a freely convertible yuan.

Power is being taken away from local governments and transferred to the financial markets. This was the reform template of Zhu Rongji in the early 2000s, but his plans were thwarted when insiders took power in 2005. One of his goals then was to open the A-share market to foreigners. That will finally happen less than two months from now. The SOE reforms underway are also a blow to local governments ability to dominate the market. This isn't news.

Back in November 2013, Li Keqiang was telling governments to get out of the economy:
China Premier Li Keqiang said local governments should stop directly investing in or setting up companies “in principle,” according to comments released a day before leaders gather to discuss economic policy.

Allowing local authorities to invest in companies or to intervene in their operations can ‘easily’’ lead to monopolies and market barriers, Li was cited as saying at a Nov. 1 meeting, according to a statement posted on the central government’s website today.

Or Li reminding them this year:
At one meeting, on May 30, Li reportedly pounded the table as he blasted local officials for inertia in carrying out central government directives.

He accused departments of micromanaging the economy and wasting time and resources examining and approving projects and deals that were entirely commercial matters unrelated to national security or strategic industries.

Everything from the audits, anti-corruption campaign and anti-monopoly campaign to tight credit, financial market and SOE reforms, are all aimed at the same goal of a market economy. With the opening of the oil market, launching of the international gold market, growth of the muni bond market and opening of the stock market, the China of 2020 is slowly coming into focus. The short-term remains precarious, but long-term the outlook is steadily improving.


¥600 Million Missing From Guang Group Account

Previous coverage of Guang Group:

Guang Group Needs ¥500 Million; High interest Loans To Blame
Latest on the Guang Group
China Top 100 Developer Guang Property Rumored Bankrupt; Firm Says Capital Tight, But Not Bankrupt; Was Paying 21.6% Interest

The latest news is about another unfinished development in Huizhou. The developer sold more than ¥900 million worth of property in advance sales. After subtracting various costs, the developer should have ¥600 million remaining. Instead, the account has ¥13,000. The article discusses how the misappropriation of funds is widespread in the industry.

When prices are rising, it's no problem to take money from one development's advance sales and use it for other purposes because cash flow is strong. When the cash flow slows, it becomes a game of musical chairs to see which account, and which developers, will find themselves short on cash.

光耀地产账户只剩1.3万 楼盘烂尾购房者“钱房两空”
Guangyao estate recently been included dishonesty "blacklist", at the same time, the company's unfinished project Fei Li Huizhou Port traced 600 million yuan Yushoukuan missing, account only 13,000 yuan.

In fact, just glorious event of the sale of financial regulatory loopholes "tip of the iceberg" in the real estate sales cycle, Yushoukuan special funds were misappropriated common occurrences. In recent years, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other places have been discovered Yushoukuan misappropriated estate funds unaccounted for.

That began more than ten years agoCommercial Yushoukuan regulatory system, the original intention that the government intervene to ensure that the house is not strong regulatory unfinished, however, the relevant departments of local regulatory enforcement often "nominal."

"Owners pay back the principal to the developer provides the opportunity to re-use of funds, some developers took the money to do other direct investment or for mortgage loans, the problem is not when funds can be mixed in the past, but if the money stuck up, buyers will face 'money bedrooms and two empty' dilemma. "Guangdong Finance department of a large room, a source told the" China Times "reporter.

600 million unaccounted Yushoukuan

Into financial difficulties in the real estate crisis continues to shine, its multiple projects due to work stoppage was not handover rights owners frequently, followed by its multiple fund projects initiated into a series of payment crisis, its new capital for listed companies * ST conducted glorious estate a sum of 60 million yuan loan guarantee is also an illegal operation.

Among them, the long lay-off port project in Huizhou Li Fei pushed to the cusp. Return to work due to a lack of start-up capital, the project repeatedly delayed handover period, was nearly a hundred owners rights.

According to relevant regulations, pre-paid funds are mainly used for the construction of the construction schedule, for equipment, materials, money and tax purposes, not for other purposes.

"From the bank's point of view, part of the sale of funds to other forms for other uses, as a commercial bank regulatory agencies can not only say that the cost fell to a special account, and can pipe to pipe." Huizhou branch of a large state-owned banks to a person reporter said, "the sale of funds for other purposes, regulators and banks are not traced, usually developers are able to do."

According to media quoted Huizhou City Housing Authority described the latest display, Fei Li Hong Kong sale of capital escrow account now only 13,000 yuan. The rights of owners to sell control through the project and price estimates derived statistics, housing more than 1100 sets of items for sale, accounts for about 900 million yuan Yushoukuan. Deduction allocated 150 million yuan to use, and there is 40 million yuan mortgage payments are not credited, outside statistics, Fei Li Hong Kong project since the opening date, there are 600 million yuan escrow account Yushoukuan unaccounted for.

"Owners have to pay back the principal from the outset did not keep to the designated account, which is the developer intentionally, under the responsibility of the developer, the bank can not manage funds into a bank account before the action." Above bank pointed out that the pre- Sale funds were misappropriated requires a series of regulatory reporting procedures, "is not easy to be able to do, so many developers at the time of sale, the owners will not let the bank according to the provisions of the Yushoukuan designated escrow account, while is bypassing this account, bank account deposit developers, which are not regulated. "

Presented by the rights owner, signed in May 2012, "the purchase of real estate (mortgage) shall deposit account with a knot book" clearly marked, Fei Li Hong Kong regulatory accounts in three-way Hengjiang CCB Huizhou Branch, however, the owners have to pay back the principal 491,491 was transferred to another account at the beginning, not the bank designated escrow account.

A statement of the bank in this book promise to the owners, to ensure that funds focused on real estate sale for post-construction, to ensure the purchase of real estate by buying subsequent housing fund (mortgage payments) of all stored Yushoukuan special accounts, such as violation willing to take responsibility.

However, the bank did not honor these commitments. Li Fei port project after the sale of the year, CCB special account designated Yushoukuan not paying back the deposit money back section with actual sales in line, nor do to supervise other banks will be the responsibility of paying back to the Special Account .

Huizhou City Housing Authority publicly testify the existence of illegal banking operations, said the mortgage bank does not fulfill its commitments, although a statement issued by the book, but still illegal to mortgage payments directly into the general account of developers, non-compliance with the tripartite agreement.

"Glorious estate practice has not been to stop the Housing Authority." A source close to government sources revealed Huizhou City Housing Authority, the Housing Authority provides policy oversight responsibilities to be fulfilled, but the Housing Authority does not supervise the real power, not requiring banks to check the pre- Back to the books of this article.

Regulatory "black hole"

In fact, the glorious estate of the real estate practice of secret operations conducted Yushoukuan not uncommon resentment developers of the system is large, misappropriation Yushoukuan has become an open secret in the industry.

"Developers will use more or less part of the sale of funds, some small and medium housing prices because the funds are not well-off, and sometimes take greater risks, privately appropriated Bacheng Yushoukuan." Housing prices, general manager of the Guangdong region of a listed company, told reporters .

According to information rights owners to master and Housing Authority provided Fei Li Guangyao estate Huizhou Port project was misappropriated funds accounted for more than Liu Cheng proportion Yushoukuan receivable.

Newspaper reporters investigation that Chuanghong estate project located in Guangzhou Nansha District escrow account funds are being misappropriated. Chuanghong real estate "Master"黄鸿明suspected involvement in Guangzhou City Party Secretary Wanqingliang case after being taken in for questioning, the company short time into financial difficulties, problems with multiple projects.

According to the owner's sales statistics, real estate Chuanghong Nansha project total housing fund for 820 million yuan, according to the provisions of the Housing Authority, to project closeout phase should be retained 120 million yuan for the ending of acceptance, but the owners and developers to check that the Housing Authority Finally, only the remaining 10 million yuan in the escrow account. This means that projects more than 100 million yuan sale funds were misappropriated funds accounted for more than Bacheng should stay.

Up to now, the implementation of the pre-sale financial supervision more than 40 cities, some cities under the direct supervision by the government, and some by other delegate agencies oversight.

"General self-declaration by the developer account status, this process can do a lot of hands and feet." The government pointed out that the full power of oversight by the government, will increase the number of additional administrative costs, the efficiency of real estate development will be affected , which will hit the developers' enthusiasm, "So some local governments are not strictly regulated."

And Then There Were Nine: Hangzhou, Xian and Guiyang Cancel All Buying Restrictions

Only 9 cities have yet to lift buying restrictions, among them the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, plus Zhuhai, Sanya, Nanning, Xining and Lanzhou.

In Hangzhou, buying restrictions are now lifted on properties larger than 140 sqm. There are rumors that the city has asked the PBOC branch office to lower second home down payments to 60%. On September 1, Xi'an will lift restrictions on everyone, requiring no hukou checks or proof of property ownership. Guiyang is also lifting restriction on September 1.

It is game on for property speculators/investors in these cities. But will they return?

Listed Developer Financing Costs Rise Nearly 30%

Among 71 listed developers on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, financing costs increased by ¥1 billion in the first half, or nearly 30% yoy. Slower home sales have slowed the return of capital and increased the developers' financing needs.

Here is Bloomberg: China Developer Debt Risk Rises as Sales Miss: Chart of the Day
China’s largest property developers risk missing their full-year sales targets as tighter credit and an economic slowdown cut demand for real estate, fueling concern the industry will struggle to repay debt.

Here is iFeng:
71家房企财务费用暴涨10亿元 同比增长近三成
Editor's note: The buyers generally expect prices will be significantly reduced, while the capital markets of the future housing prices putting a question mark. Financing costs of housing prices will undoubtedly increase substantially. This is to some extent, also exacerbated the tension in the room rate funding chain. In a number of factors together, not difficult to predict, housing prices, "price change" efforts will be further deepened.

As of August 23, the "Securities Daily" reporters According to Wind Info statistics found, according to the real estate industry classification SW, Shanghai and Shenzhen has 71 housing prices (nearly three full financial index company) announced in 2014 reporting the results, accounting for 50% of the 142 housing prices, the financial costs soared nearly 10 billion yuan, while in 2013 year on year over the same period increased by only 300 million yuan.

It is noteworthy that, in the above 71 Housing prices in China corporate finance fee beat Vanke [ Introduction News ] topped the list, the amount of up to 450 million yuan; financial costs were minimal for Guangyu [ Introduction News ] development, the amount of to -1821 million.

In this regard, Rand Consulting CEO Song Yanqing to the "Securities Daily" reporters, corporate finance fees rise reflects the developer of the project to borrow more debt to climb. Meanwhile, housing prices of existing homes inventory is large, slow turnaround projects.

Finance costs soaring refrain

According to Wind Info statistics show that the 71 public housing prices in the first half of the financial expenses totaled 4.35 billion yuan, an increase margin of 28%; while the first half of 2013 that 71 listed companies in financial expenses amounted to 3.399 billion yuan , 2012 compared to the same period 3.123 billion yuan, an increase of the magnitude of its 2013 financial expenses over the same period was approximately 9%.

Thus, compared with the same period in 2013 housing prices up slightly increase financial expenses, in 2014 turned over the same period rose sharply, by nearly 20 percentage points.

According to the above-mentioned 71 Housing prices listed in the report shows that 13 financial expenses is negative, 58 positive. Among them, 14 fangqi financial costs more than 100 million yuan, five more than 200 million yuan.

Housing prices in the first half from the specific performance of the financial costs of the flowers, the China Enterprise beat Vanke topped the list, the amount of up to 450 million yuan; Vanke to 396 million yuan in the second position; while the first open [ Introduction News ] shares and real estate investment followed.

It is worth noting that, according to Wind Info statistics, Oceanwide Holdings Financial expenses for the first half of this year, 50,309,800 yuan, 76,266,500 yuan compared with the same period in 2013, down 25.9567 million yuan, the financial costs fell by about 34 %; while Street [ latest news Price Unit Reviews ] in the first half of this year, compared with 173 million yuan of financial expenses, compared with 090 million yuan over the same period last year, up rose 083 million yuan, an increase of more than 90%.

However, with respect to the financial cost has been effectively controlled by the number of housing prices, the financial cost of an increase in the number of housing prices is more.

In this regard, insiders told reporters that in recent years, housing prices in the country's limited financing channels, through the capital markets and bank loans are very difficult, most developers go through the Trust financing channels, its financing costs basically in 10 % or more, and even individual housing prices folk want to survive a loan shark. In view of this, many sea financing of housing prices, but in mainland China property market turnover continued to decline, the property market return on investment is not high in the background, foreign investors do not buy a low-cost account corporate financing, which led to a certain extent Cost of housing prices in overseas financing and even rose to more than 7%.

Obviously, the high interest payments increased the financial pressure, but also more financial pressure test of the ability of real estate companies.

Project turnover rate pressure

"Housing prices and the debt limit its financial cost is proportional." Another industry source told reporters that in 2013, the majority of housing prices to buy a lot of land, and its liabilities increased a lot, which is obviously also further enhance There proportion of its interest-bearing liabilities, increased its financial cost burden.

It is worth mentioning that, Song Yanqing also to the "Securities Daily" reporters, said, "In the real estate development, project completion record for the point of view of the case, if the occasion of the completion of the project had not yet been repaid development projects are completed interest loans, so the more sales of existing homes yet, the greater the financial cost index will give enterprises the pressure. "

And look at the property inventory and turnover in the first half of this year, the majority of the sales target completion rate of housing prices than expected at the beginning of the project lengthening sales cycles, slow turnover rate, the birth of the real estate business financial expenses rose phenomenon.

In fact, the majority of housing prices have been aware of the financial costs in the real estate project development costs rising phenomenon, in view of this, the majority of housing prices are higher turnaround strategy, speed up the project with the turnover rate and reduce interest payments.

The reporter was informed in multiple interviews, almost all major benchmark of housing prices in vigorously promote the development of standardized product line copy, because that product line development can achieve fast positioning, rapid design, rapid strokes mining, rapid construction, quick sales and fast cash flow balance, but also can improve project turnover rate, reduce the financial pressure.

In addition, the individual strength of housing prices in order to be able to borrow money at lower interest rates, all strive to build the A + H share listing and financing platform, domestic financing costs close to 7% of the difference between the space for housing enterprises competing to get through Hong Kong, China listing platform. From Vanke, green spaces and other benchmarking enterprises to seek to change the transition Oceanwide Holdings and other developers have done to open up the domestic double plus the overseas capital market financing platform strategy, which aims to expand financing channels for nothing more than background in highly leveraged operations Under strive to reduce financial costs arising from high debt, and thus enhance corporate profits.

Event Horizon Approaches for China's Real Estate Market as Inventory Climbs

This picture shows the Chinese housing market. On the left are the existing property owners who might protest if prices drop, on the right is credit market set to swallow up developers if they cannot recoup their capital and repay debts. The developer response to this difficult situation is to follow Circe's advice and steer closer to Scylla (the home owners). To wit:
Double trouble: China property launches to deepen inventory overhang, price declines
Property launches in China are set to surge in the latter half of the year with developers sticking to their schedules despite mounting inventories, spelling double trouble for a market hammered by months of falling prices.

Price cuts were coming no matter what, but the need to stay as far away from Charybdis as possible makes for an even worse market:
Earlier this month, Kaisa Group and China Merchants Land confirmed that they planned to launch around 70 percent of their 2014 projects in the second half. Country Garden said it aimed to meet 60 percent of its sales target during the period.

......Inventories rose 8.4 percent as of the end of July from March, when the industry correction started to gain traction, according to Reuters calculations based on data from China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC).

The latest count by the Chinese press puts inventory at 3 million square meters across 35 cities. Firms in Beijing are already cutting prices via their sales staff to hide the cuts from the wider public, in what are dubbed "internal sales." Chinese analysts are talking of "inevitable" price cuts waves that could see prices of new developments from big name developers cut 20% to 30%.

If this breaks bad, the fallout is not going to be limited to the Chinese market. Fortunately, insurance is cheap at the moment.

From iFeng:
内地35个城市库存3亿平方米 全国性降价潮将来临
August 25, at the launch of regular financial platform recruit Ali treasure same day, Taobao Vanke announced high-profile collaboration, "Taobao users throughout the year how much money to spend, you can in 12 cities nationwide Vanke Property 23 direct offset mortgage, the highest Deductible 2 million yuan. "

"Essentially equivalent to markdowns, Vanke start layout in advance 'Golden September' sales. Promotional rate averaged about 3.5 percent of the total price, and our tips 'Golden September' prices are expected to downstream 0-5% qoq consistent." quiet whip gold real estate analyst said.

In real estate the traditional sales season, " Golden September and Silver October , "Before the advent of a lot of housing prices in brewing a new round of markdowns action.

Price war on the eve of

During the conference, participated in Greentown interim results in Hong Kong, a media reporter to Sunhongbin joked, "If I find you to buy Greentown Hangzhou house, you can play a few fold? "Sunhongbin silent for a moment, responded that" I do not look directly to the project can play Qizhe. "

Sun Hongbin explained, "I have to say Greentown house price is not justified, but not say the price, the price is sure to follow the market, so the price of that (people buy a house) a good opportunity. Media can not kidnap us, and made us with a fool like, others are dropping their prices, we will give the guard at that. "

In the Song Weiping era, Greentown China [ -3.57% ] adhere to the "no price" image has gained. But times have changed, according to informed sources, Greentown China has begun to cut prices of its multiple projects in exchange for sales.

Real Estate traditional sales season, "Golden September and Silver October," before the advent of the price of housing prices need to find a "good reason." Has been on the market more sensitive Vanke boss, choose to embrace the Internet by way of lower prices. It is reported that China Vanke activity time cooperation with Taobao, 2014 August 25 to September 30. Preferential quota calculation method is to take the amount of consumption Taobao users over the past year, that is August 1, 2013 to July 31, 2014 shall prevail.

Sang Yu Feng, director of the real estate market in the 21st Century Development Center, on the surface, this is a Taobao Vanke and marketing activities, but is actually a disguised price cuts Vanke. Property during the previous two rounds of adjustments, Vanke have carried out prices, 2008 was the first to cut prices and triggered protests owners. But Yu Liang, President of Vanke on August 18 interim results conference, said Vanke, adjust the real estate market is to have a complete cycle, if the adjustment is not in place will bring more chaos, therefore, hope that the market adjustment can stick . In other words, Vanke's judgment is, the real estate market will continue to adjust, Vanke price action is carried out accordingly.

Sang Yu Feng believes that Vanke's actions have symbolic significance. Second and third tier cities in the country in general to cancel the purchase under the background of real estate to the inventory situation is not ideal, real estate listed companies in the report are quite ugly, if in the upcoming September-October season, it can not be harvested, the whole year performance guarantee.

Agile clear that the interim results conference, in the second half, Agile's multiple projects will continue to introduce new products, mostly for first-time buyers or just need to improve the type of demand product. Prices, Agile will continue to take a flexible marketing strategies and reasonable pricing, in order to complete the annual sale target of 48 billion yuan. Agile past month continuously in Beijing tourism real estate marketing activities.

21st Century Business Herald reporter also learned that a well-known housing prices are through the "internal sale" prices start low-key way in Beijing. As long as the staff presentation, you can enjoy the so-called internal price and down payment installments. The "internal sale" is essentially a price.

National price surges

Sang Yu Feng believes that the advent of a nationwide wave of price cuts will be inevitable.

With policy advice Research Department data show that as of the end of July 2014, the monitoring of one, two, three, four lines 35 cities, commercial housing inventory balances for accumulated 302.16 million square meters, the chain rose slightly by 2% year on year increase of 39 %; 35 city cumulative sales ratio of 22.58 months, growth of 3%, an increase of 61%. In major cities generally face "to stock" pressure, how to accelerate the run volume is still the primary problem is the developer.

Consulting Zhang Hongwei, director of research with the policy that the "bailout" policy effect is not obvious in most cities. Housing prices listed annual results press the top, is bound to take corresponding measures to rush in the harvest "golden nine silver ten", in September-October to increase efforts to push the plate. Moderate price strategy adjustments, become an inevitable choice for most housing prices.

Taking Beijing as an example. According to Asian high statistics show that in September Beijing commercial housing market is expected to have 39 projects into the market, is expected to hit a new high this year to monthly. Among them, many years of deliberation, real estate is also prepared to enter the market. Located between North Third Ring Jimenqiao Paul 利海德 park model recently opened, the main unit is about 175-305 meters flat villa mansion, villa of about 400-460 square meters of urban homes, using pure British style of Victorian architecture.

Deputy General Manager of Asian high high Shan analysis, September Beijing supply surge of the other reasons is that a lot of housing prices in the first half did not complete the sales target, the project had to accelerate the rhythm of the push plate, adjust pricing strategies in order to complete the annual sales plan. From September market project pricing, although Beijing has basically liberalized sale price, but the "prudent" market is still the main tone.

Has announced the price of the project, the pure product sets new disc is still in East Lake residential product, the estimated price of only 16,500 yuan from / square meters, is the lowest price of the project area. Fangshan plan listed several residential projects, including pure new disc five and Vanke Changyang world, old projects Rakhine State Terrace, quoted at 19000-22000 yuan / square meter, the basic return to the same period last year. Outside the Fourth Ring Road in Chaoyang District, southern landscape project hardcover existing homes to 36,500 yuan / square meter of low-cost market, achieved in July apartment sales of more than 20 sets. The project is the main unit is 150 square meters -170 square meters, there are some existing homes villas products.

Zhang Hongwei think, from the current market performance, the national property market a wide range of "price boom" is coming. Inevitably, some large enterprises in brand development project will appear 20% -30% of the market behavior slashed prices and real estate prices will be more and more.

China Begins Breaking the Oil Monopoly

The opening of the oil sector is underway:

China's Guanghui Energy wins approval to import 4,000 bpd of crude oil
China's Guanghui Energy has received a crude oil import licence from the government, becoming the first non state-owned enterprise to be granted the sought after licence as Beijing gradually loosens its grip on the oil market.

China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, regulates its oil imports via a quota system and the latest approval is in line with the government's pledge to allow more private participation in the energy sector as part of a broader move to reform its clunky and inefficient state-owned sector.

Guanghui has interests in Kazakhstan that give it ample reserves.

The opening of the market comes at a time when efficiency is sorely needed: Chinese oil demand declines
Apparent oil demand, a reflection of how much oil goes into domestic refineries combined with net oil product imports, decreased 2.1 percent in July year-on-year. From June, apparent oil demand dropped 6.2 percent to 9.61 million barrels per day.

"The weakness in China's oil demand reflects the ongoing slowdown in its economy," James Bourne, Platts associate editorial director for Asia news, said in an emailed statement.

Chinese coverage of Guanghui obtaining import license:
广汇能源获原油进口资质 国内炼油产业将洗牌
The industry's long-awaited permission crude oil imports, with the Guanghui Energy (600256, SH) yesterday (August 27) evening a paper proclamation officially break the ice.

Guanghui Energy announced that the August 27, the Xinjiang Guanghui Energy Department of Commerce received a notification has been received under the Ministry of Commerce issued a business letter document [2014] No. 635, "Commerce Department on Crude Petroleum Ltd. Xinjiang Guanghui given non- state trading import qualified approval. "

According to the approval, a subsidiary of Xinjiang Guanghui Guanghui Energy Petroleum Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Guanghui oil) to obtain non-state trading of imported crude qualification; arrange Guanghui crude oil in 2014 to allow the import of non-state trading volume of 200,000 tons; wide Petroleum crude oil according to the market situation will be sold to meet industrial policy refineries.

"Daily Economic News ( microblogging ) , "Reporters noted that according to the relevant analyst previously disclosed, the right to apply for crude oil sales Guanghui Energy has also been submitted under policies issued or far off. As China's crude oil imports in the first company to receive qualified private enterprises, Guanghui Energy overseas oil and gas resources can be directly shipped back to their own country, to form from upstream exploration to downstream sales of the whole industry chain. Domestic refining industry, crude oil imports could break the ice with the authority and re-shuffle.

Sales to be over two crossings

Ice-breaking crude oil imports permission will be treated as a monopoly in the field of oil once again the depth of breaking history is written. This year in February, Guanghui Energy has announced that, in accordance with offshore oil and gas resources Guanghui and exploration and development capabilities have been obtained, is applying for non-state trading of crude oil and the corresponding right to operate a quota, then, so the company's share price repeatedly touted.

Relevant information, according to China's existing policies, sub-state trading of crude oil imports and non-state trading are two, have the right to operate state trading enterprises currently only five, including the United Oil, in conjunction of, CNOOC , Sinochem and Guangdong Zhenrong, this trade is no quota restrictions.

At present, a total of 22 non-state trading enterprises have business qualifications of crude oil, 2012 ~ 2014 Chinese trade in this part of the quota is 29.1 million tons / year. However, the amount of numbers to complete these quotas were not disclosed.

Acciona think C1 Energy Research Center senior researcher Zhang Ye had told the "Daily Economic News" reporter revealed that there Guanghui Energy insiders said at the beginning to get the right to import and quotas, the company will cooperate with domestic refineries, These overseas sales of crude oil, while the sales target is mainly imported crude oil is waiting for national deregulation of eligibility to use local refineries.

However, Zhang Ye believes that in accordance with existing national policies, Guanghui Energy also had at least two off in order to ultimately achieve sales: first, to obtain crude oil sales Guanghui own right; Second, the local refinery's crude oil imports granted the right to use. The basic condition for obtaining the right to sell oil companies include: registered capital of 100 million yuan; has a long-term, stable crude oil supply channels; has a long-term, stable, legitimate crude oil sales channels. Currently has a total crude oil sales qualified enterprises 24.

In addition, Zhang Ye further revealed that Guanghui Energy is applying for oil exploration qualifications, but also very likely to be granted.

Guanghui will form the whole industry chain

It is worth noting that, in 2013, Guanghui Energy subsidiary through overseas acquisitions, etc., to obtain a Kazakhstan oil and gas blocks Zaysan 1.1639 billion tons of crude oil resources, as well as oil and gas projects in Kazakhstan 南伊玛谢夫 crude oil reserves 210,000,000 tons. The crude oil import qualified implemented overseas oil and gas resources can be directly shipped back to their own country, which means Guanghui Energy will be formed from the upstream exploration to downstream sales of the whole industry chain.

Taking into account the pace of domestic private enterprises to upgrade behind oil and raw materials and low capacity utilization gap big problem, Zhuo record information oil analyst Chen Qing believes that imports of crude oil Guanghui energy will flow into some local refineries.

"With the permission of the ice-breaking crude oil imports, believe domestic crude oil gap will gradually narrow." Chen Ching noted Guanghui energy for domestic private refineries pointed out another possible way in terms of raw materials, which can be obtained from the raw materials Domestic turning to overseas deployment, the acquisition of oil and gas fields, etc. upstream industry chain development.

Chen Ching also believes that in recent years, China's oil refining overcapacity situation highlights, in response to the future of the idle capacity of private refineries to resume oil supply by leaps and bounds, China should actively layout strategic storage of crude oil and refined oil, while enterprises should accelerate the construction of a reservoir and deployment, to achieve strategic storage and commercial storage at the same time, power and ease overcapacity.

The industry believes that, in the "two barrels of oil," the implementation of reform in the context of mixed ownership, the possibility of Xinjiang Guanghui energy as energy companies involved in the larger regional cooperation, if you really can open to private oil exploration and qualifications, which would break a monopoly upstream pattern.


Hangzhou Housing Rebound Fades

It may be time for developers to start panicking. Home buyers in Hangzhou started off with 2000 Panic Buyers, but the effect is fading quickly as buyers wait for prices to bottom. One sales agent said it seems like ending buying restrictions had no effect.

The reporter in the story says that the gap between a rebound in sales and sales agents not seeing a change in the market is due to the market having not yet formed a bottom. A rebound is preceded by a bottom, but the market in Hangzhou hasn't stopped falling.

Perhaps the reason is because the market has put in a major top and a bottom is still a long ways off........

From iFeng:
杭州楼市正在经历“价格筑底期” 购房者总想再等等
July 29, Hangzhou adjustment restriction policy, but now nearly a month's time. In the past month, obviously feeling the market is steadily warmer. Data given in terms of support, too. Before the policy change, the main city of Hangzhou (including Xiaoshan, Yuhang), the daily trading volume of about 120 units, the policy adjustment, the figure basically doubled.

However, this rebound in sales staff there has not been significant feedback, reporters in the past period of time, with many sales staff communicated, maximum sentence is heard - how could such a poor market, the purchase adjustments does not seem to play any role in it.

Why is there between the narrative out of the market data and sales staff so the difference? Reporter survey found that, before each round of a strong rebound in the property market, the market segment you really want to experience such a "price bottoming period", and the current property market is in such a period, for more real estate is concerned, to usher in the ideal Strong Sales may also be required after this period.

The so-called "price bottoming period", referring to the first days after the policy change from the beginning to rebound in the property market ushered in the period of time until complete. A typical feature of "price bottoming period" is the policy bottomed out, but prices have not yet bottomed out, the overall market is still in a "price change" Ruoshi stage, while buyers are also going through a struggle from the sidelines to the psychological state process of change.

The "price bottoming phase," the reason why the market was feeling kind of differentiation, because some projects, take advantage of this window period, continue to use their high cost impact on the market, so as to win market share. A typical representative of this is the catch this time selling European financial city [ latest news Price Unit Reviews ] (efc), 8月16 day of the opening date, has sold nearly 500 house. It is also nice to be able to explain why the market transaction data on the rise, while many salespeople still do not feel the reason, because the market transaction data, there is a large part by the "star-class real estate" to create, in addition to efc, as well as Riverside · Gold southern [ News Price Unit Reviews ], Vanke [ Introduction News ] · Future City [ latest news Price Unit Reviews ] and so on. Some continued marketing drive, such as Greentown [ Introduction News ] Rankin Park, after the price adjustment in place, also received good market response.

Then the "price bottoming period" will last how long? According to statistics learned from our recent strict control policies by the end of 2008 to the width is.

That time, the continuous hike and two sets of mortgage under strict action, Hangzhou property market has worsened. Coupled with the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on China's economy, by the end of October 2008, the government finally issued a document bailout hopes tax relief, lower lending rates and deregulation two suites and other measures to stimulate the property market.

Such a policy does not allow the property quickly pick up until March 2009, began Hangzhou property market turnover rebounded significantly. In May 2009, the main city commercial housing turnover is a historic breakthrough million units, the property prices have also rebounded. And in October 2008 to March 2009 of this period, the property market turnover sluggish performance, prices continued to dip, many plates also appeared Rate historic lows.

According to industry estimates, this time due to less "4 trillion" stimulus, while inventory is high, the duration may be longer whole "price bottoming period."

"This time we opened, I have a friend who wanted to buy, house and the first open [ Introduction News ] He also felt very satisfied with the price, but an hour before the opening approaching, he sent me a text message, saying over and over again after consultation with parents, or decided not to buy, want to wait and see. " There is a real estate west of the city, just opened this past weekend for the first time, its marketing director, told reporters, "I can see, his heart is also experiencing a lot of struggle, in the past he may just wait and see, now is the time to buy a house that is almost, but the total think there is a cheaper house can wait. "

But the director of marketing for the market outlook still showed enough optimism, "Obviously, we are now in the shake, if true, as rumors say, the bottom line shopping can all be open this month, may accelerate buyers into the market, get through this period, the property will be a lot brighter. "

Beijing Mortgage Rates Ease

Banks and media are going back and forth in their claims, but now the media is saying first time home buyers in Beijing can again borrow at 10% off the prime rate. This comes just ahead of Silver September and Gold October, two of the biggest months for real estate sales.

北京房贷现松动潮 首套房利率9折重返市场
21st Century Business Herald recently, with the deregulation throughout the real estate policy, in Beijing's first suite loan rates are also quietly loose.

21st Century Business Herald reporter visited a number of state-owned banks, shares of the bank was informed that since mid-August, a number of banks have lowered the Beijing Branch of the first suite of benchmark interest lending rate to 9.5%, more CITIC Bank , China Merchants Bank , HSBC etc., to reproduce a 10% interest rates.

First mortgage interest rates the lowest 10%

Since mid-August, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank and HSBC in Beijing lowered mortgage rates, the minimum can be performed 10% benchmark interest rate. But are limited to first-time buyers of second-hand housing individuals, and there is a different form of additional conditions.

China Merchants Bank's practice is to require a certain percentage of the loan applicant deposits deposited as margin loans.

"To reduce the risk, the first suite of applications for loans to pay 15% of the margin deposit for a year, the interest rate can give 10% discount, pay 5% margin, can give 9.5% of the amount is not required to apply for loans." Merchants Bank Beijing Haidian District personal loan center a credit manager bluntly.

These credit manager told reporters: "This is for the policy, Beijing Branch, adjusting almost a month, the amount of more relaxed, you can grant complete loan, less than a month from the approval of the loan." This statement and the bank, Chaoyang District, personal loan center staff expressed unanimous.

For changes in mortgage policy, China Merchants Bank, responsible person to respond to 21st Century Business Herald reporter said: "We mortgage policy has not changed, but according to the lender qualifications, risk tolerance, there may be differences in pricing."

CITIC Bank loan interest rates is limited to channels of cooperation with real estate agency.

August 19, CITIC Bank and chain of family property and announced the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement in Beijing Homelink Real Estate Home Suite customers enjoy a 10% discount lending rate.

In addition, real estate agency I love my family, a spokesman told reporters in Beijing, said:. "CITIC Bank approved the beginning of the year to give us 6 billion line of credit, and now the first suite of minimum 10%, but there are certain requirements for qualified customers"

However, a number of Haidian District, Beijing Branch of China CITIC Bank credit manager, said: "The first implementation of the benchmark interest rate home loan is still no concessions."

Foreign firms have also emerged conditional mortgage rates 10%. "Loan 1 million more than 9.4-fold, 9.2 more than 2.5 million loan discount, loan 4000000-5000000 can hit the 10% minimum, we do not require an additional deposit." HSBC Beijing Zhongguancun mortgage customers a branch manager told reporters.

He said: "The first suite discount always had, but turned out to be 9.6 and 9.4 fold, 9.4 and 9.2 fold now generally quarterly adjustment policies, the recent Beijing Branch particular application down, this policy is estimated that by the end of September did not change.."

HSBC Head Office official said: "For his first home loan in line with the purchase requirements, we integrated assessment of the specific circumstances in line with the purchase of the required loan applicants lending rates, combined with local market conditions due consideration discount rate considering all aspects. factors, including work, income, credit history, repayment ability and the housing situation for loans, etc. Second home loan interest rate of not less than 1.1 times the benchmark rate. "

9.5 fold become mainstream

21st Century Business Herald reporter from the latest bank lending rate chain of family property acquired display, August 25, 20 banks in cooperation with the agency, the nine banks first set of second-hand housing loan interest rates varying degrees down, two floating interest rate down from 10% to 5%, and the remaining nine implementation of the benchmark interest rate.

In addition to the three banks, the implementation of the benchmark interest rate 9.5 fold five banks are the Agricultural Bank , Bank of Communications , Beijing Bank , Citibank, DBS Bank, and Beijing Rural Commercial perform the 10% discount.

A chain of home real estate real estate agent in Beijing said: "At present, most banks in Beijing have 9.5 fold, large banks such as ICBC, CCB, or benchmark interest rate, the higher the discount the customer put the amount of the higher qualification requirements may be more. Early cancellation concessions, our lending rate table 15 days for once. "

21st Century Business Herald reporter visited Beijing Financial Street, accusing him of several state-owned outlets survey, the Agricultural Bank, Bank of the first suite does have cut lending rates, but the conditions are different.

A branch of Bank of Communications Beijing Financial Street loan department staff, said in mid-August, Bank began to cut interest rates, the first suite of loan 1 million or more, the minimum hit 9.5 fold, but there is an additional condition. "Lender qualification, real estate loans have requirements, including real estate and other details of the volume rate, the lender will need to purchase certain financial products." Above the staff said.

Beijing Chaoyang District Agricultural Bank a loan center manager, said: "The current implementation of the first suite of benchmark interest rate, the specific operation to see the letter recorded by the lender, not across the board, at most, 9.5%, there is no requirement to make deposits."

Provide information and chain of family property is different, Beijing Bank still perform benchmark interest rate. "Developers and banks, lending rates agreed upon by both parties, with the banking channels may not be as direct loans .8 March 11 lowered the benchmark interest rate, floating interest rates until more than a year." Beijing branch of Bank of Beijing Financial Street a credit manager said.

Recent market rumors, Minsheng Bank to restart the personal mortgage business in Beijing. Minsheng Bank, Beijing Financial Street a credit manager of a network of consumer credit, said: "We do not have a personal mortgage loans, for several years did not do." Consistent with this statement and Haidian District, a branch of the bank credit manager.

For the recent Beijing's first home loan interest rate changes, the Central University of Finance and Banking Research Center, Guo Tian Yong said the fall in interest rates is mainly commercial activity, July bank lending growth fell more, from the launch of view, faced with insufficient effective demand; see from mobility , currently relatively early this year was loose. Plus the central bank to reduce the cost of financing the social appeal, does not exclude mortgage interest rates continue to decline in the second half.

SMEs Wonder Not How to Live, But How To Die As Borrowing Costs Spike

Credit remains tight for SMEs. One borrower says their interest costs will climb from 6.6% to 8%, enough to cut 1% off their 10% profit margin. Owners describe it as plucking the feathers from the goose as banks raise interest rates and fees in a search for profit.

One SME says the bank told him if he wants to borrow ¥8 million, he needs to first deposit ¥8 million into a savings account. He says in order to borrow ¥1, SMEs have to pay ¥0.16 in costs.

Another SME will borrow ¥150 million at 12%, or ¥18 million in annual interest costs. However, with fees to trust intermediaries, costs rise to ¥33 million annually, or 22%.

Banks aren't making loans with no collateral, so borrowers using credit guarantee firms see their costs rise 2% to 5%. So probably not good that Credit Guarantee Firms Go Down Like Dominoes.

From 21st Century Business Herald:
想贷款先存款 借一元钱有多“贵”
"Tight money", "your money" has been plagued by a number of much-needed financing for SMEs. Despite repeated orders to relieve the central high cost of corporate finance problems, but in practice, the right to speak weaker SMEs still have to face the "get" and "high price" two-tier financial problems.

Banks and other financial institutions to loan funds "goose plucking", leading to the real economy with money, "both expensive and difficult." This reporter recently interviewed a number of business owners, they said, now is not considering "how to live" issue, but "how to die" and whether "life after death" issue.

Then, "to borrow the cost of" how high?

Shenzhen Hirota decorative Group Finance Director 田延平 to reporters, the company's borrowing costs from last year's 6 to 6.6 percent and now suddenly rose to around 8%. "Our new addition this year is estimated to account for interest on the company's net profit last year, 10 percent, meaning that this year's cost of funds is only necessary to eat 10% of the profits."

田延平 said his company total annual funding of about 2 billion yuan, channels, including bank credit, short trading, bonds, etc., of which more than 40% of bank loans. "This year, our borrowing costs suddenly go up by 30%, the interest paid by the company for 90 million yuan last year, this year is expected at between 120 million to 150 million yuan."

"Loan rates have been floating higher, 12 percent annualized interest rate is already very common, enterprise funds a lot of pressure, I feel life more difficult this year." General manager of Zhejiang, a medium-sized clothing company, told reporters that this phenomenon is common in SMEs.

In addition to lending rates climbing, "goose plucking," the phenomenon is more widespread. Such as guarantee fees, advisory fees and all kinds of "money" are increasing the cost of loans for SMEs.

A small manufacturing business executives gave reporters just a breakdown: The company this year to apply for a bank loan of $ 8 million, "because of the way to take a mortgage loan, so let a credit guarantee company peel off 2 percent, or 160,000; when applying for credit, account manager informed me, now tight credit lines, to 8 million yuan loan, you need to give 8 million yuan of bank deposits that is, I need to start with. other channels temporarily borrow 8 million yuan in the bank, and then convert the deposit into a bank acceptances, I would pay 4.8% of the discounted fee will redeem it and then also temporary borrowing After some bargaining, and ultimately give us a 50% discount, 8 million yuan loan, deposit 4 million, discounted cost 192,000 yuan. Fortunately, the line of credit at any rate is down, the loan interest rate of 12%, the annual interest 960,000 yuan. Later, the bank told me that our financing costs have the low count. "Well afterwards, that is, small and medium enterprises in order to lend a dollar from the bank, at least to pay 0.16 yuan, or even higher.

A medium-sized building materials enterprises in Hebei total borrowing 150 million yuan, the borrowing rate 12% per year, in theory, should also interest in 18 million yuan. However, the company's chairman Yang said, "plus all kinds of commissioned intermediary costs, on average, more than 33 million yuan to repay interest annually, costs almost doubled."

Yang told reporters that the current mortgage loan financing is still based, no collateral is basically difficult loans. Therefore, the bank will generally require companies to find his security company guarantees to credit the money, frequently 2% to 5% of the guarantee fee to make the already overburdened businesses more "difficult."

Qingdao City, an annual export volume of over 20 million U.S. dollars of foreign trade business executives complained that due to small scale enterprises, to the banks for loans always make things difficult. "Our company's annual loan volume of 500 million to 600 million, will be required to pay the financial costs of a variety of names, not the same every year, it is called also .2011 called 'consultancy', probably to pay 100,000 yuan ; 2012 because of our good repayment record, only paid 50,000 yuan of 'consultancy fee', in fact, the bank did not give us any advice or consultancy services, just clever stand eyesight money only, do not pay do not give credit. 2013 we applied for a loan of 6 million yuan, but the actual arrival only 5.4 million yuan, and the remaining 600,000 yuan to buy financial forms were trapped. "the official said with exasperation.

"At present, Shanghai area small businesses and personal business loan interest rate of 18%." Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping said, another consignment fees, consulting fees, consultant fees, as well as 3% fee for each link, and requires the month from debt service, and ultimately the interest rate is much higher than 20%.

How Long Will The Party Last?

The market has broken through every possible barrier, here is yet another. From this point in time, it's not hard to imagine the end of QE3, possible major deterioration in the Chinese real estate market and economy, recession in Europe, or geopolitical events to spook the market in fall 2014.

Tim Knight posted these charts:

He also linked to this, after hearing about it after posting the charts: The 64-Month Bubble Pattern
All the "name-brand" market bubbles in history have lasted 64 months from initial growth to blow-off top. This includes the 3 biggest bubbles in modern market history:

the Dow into the 1929 peak
the Nikkei into the 1989 peak
the Nasdaq 100 into the 2000 peak

This also includes more recent bubbles, such as home-builders into 2005, and crude oil into 2007.

Ren Zhiqiang Less Optimistic

China's Real Estate Cheerleader is a little more cautious today. Instead of saying prices won't fall, he says prices will rise again in September 2015, assuming current conditions hold and the government doesn't greatly add to supply with more affordable housing and shanty redevelopments.

From iFeng:
任志强:如果其他因素不变 明年9月份房价会上涨
Has successfully predicted last year, prices rose Ren , they began "shooting", the latest prophecy is "if other factors remain unchanged, after September next year prices will rise again!"

Noah wealth of real estate in 2014, held August 22 Financial Summit Forum, Huayuan Real Estate [ Introduction News ] Ren Zhiqiang, chairman, said in his keynote address, "This round of house price decline, Beijing also appeared, if 70 cities inside the country, including the security room this part of the capital, housing prices will certainly still be down, but I do not think the absolute value is down, the downward trend will continue into next year or so has been in September. "

Ren said, "prices fall, but the absolute value did not decline to buy a house," is because the impact of loan interest rates. "Interest rate from 0.85 times to 1 times the normal run of about one million of the loan amount, 200,000 middle worse, in other words when the developers house price 100,000 dollars when consumers do not have any income, house not cheap but also have to pay 100,000 dollars in interest, "Ren said," especially the family monthly income of 5,000 dollars a month could spend 4000 dollars, of which two thousand dollars to buy a house, accounting for 40%, but the interest rate a up, same house, same price needs to pay interest and repay 3,000 dollars, has become 60% for the debt, it does not meet the loan qualifications. Beijing has seen a lot of people, because they may not lead to mortgage loans do not give up the house. "

Statistics show that in 2013, Beijing has supplied a total of 13 million square meters of affordable housing, which developers built one of the 45 percent, 5.85 million square meters, and the government built 7.15 million square meters, accounting for up to 55 percent. "If such a proportion in the country according to projections, we can know that this year the country sell less than 4,000 square meters of the house, but the Government has provided more than 40 million square meters of the house, in other words after the sum total of these two growth rather than decline, that we demand remains still. "Ren said.

"If other factors remain unchanged, after the next year prices will rise again in September," Ren stressed, "but there are two factors we can not control, can not control is the first affordable housing, the second can not control is the 10000 million and 4.7 million investment shed change sets housing reform has much impact on the market. "

"If these two local governments have been completed, the impact is enormous, next year in September destocking is still huge." Ren said, "We only produce 7 million units a year in housing, and 36 million units of affordable Housing tell you is seven million units a year, equal to the current production capacity doubled, if coupled with 12 million sets of studio change room is more than doubled again to increase affordable housing than we now supply much larger. "

"When the private sector development and investment decline, the government changed the method used shed in stimulating investment, in fact, may be the cause and effect reversed," Ren said, "I personally think that 1 trillion investment in affordable studio reform proposed by the central government, local governments may Coupled with a couple of trillion shed change funds, so this one trillion shed change, just like last year may 4000000000000 I think the impact on the market may be even greater. "

"Expanding non-market flows will inevitably affect the supply-demand relationship, we say that the relationship between the front of urbanization, demographic change can affect our future as well as greater demand, the only thing we do not know can not be calculated in the short term is not a non- Market Factors rapidly increasing supply, which may cause investment mistakes. "Ren concluded.

From the land of view, January to June, the Ministry announced that more than 70,000 square kilometers of land supply, "but we only took 19,000 hectares developers, the other 50,000 hectares of land do not know to whom, so In some areas will deteriorate the relationship between supply and demand and the supply and demand situation of differentiation. "Ren said.