China back from vacation, rare earths run

I'm looking at gold mining stocks to compare A-shares to H-shares, as China returns from vacation today. Lingbao Gold (3330) has been on a tear, up 30% in the past week including today's move, but it appears the A-shares aren't doing any catching up today, only pacing Lingbao.

I included China Rare Earth (0769) because that stock continues to catch a bid on monster volume. The relative performance versus Molycorp (MCP) is looking much better now. Since Yahoo has difficulty with the time difference, I had to create a chart comparing the prices. China Rare Earth includes today's intraday gains as of around noon in Hong Kong. This will be an interesting relationship going forward.

China Rare Earth and Lingbao Gold are both up more than 30% this week, with only a few hours left in trading. China Rare Earth has spiked before and I've seen shorter spikes occur before, only to watch them almost completely fade away in the ensuing days and weeks. Whether this rally is connected to the politics of the region (with China supposedly slowing rare earth exports to Japan during the brouhaha over the detained sea captain) or the expectation of currency devaluation (the similar move in Lingbao suggests the latter) could mean the move is more permanent, but I still expect a healthy and sizable pullback.

谢国忠：看好黄金涨到2000美元

大回调之后再买

《大众证券报》：在金融危机爆发后，你一直看好黄金。目前，市场上有一种乐观的看法，认为未来黄金能涨到2000美元/盎司，你是否同意这种观点？

　　谢国忠：长远来看，在二三年内黄金涨到2000美元/盎司是有可能的，我还是比较看好黄金、石油的，因为有通胀、央行货币发放太多的因素。这是
一个趋势，但是不会一路涨到底，在这个过程中会有反复，所以，短线来说，涨得太多了就不能再追了。看好一个品种，都是在一个大回调以后再去买，风险比较
低。涨得比较快就说明有热钱在流入，有流入就会有流出，就容易导致短线亏损。

金矿:
山东黄金（600547.SS）
中金黄金（600489.SS）
紫金矿业（601899.SS, 2899.HK）
荣华实业（600311.SS）
灵宝黄金（3330.HK）
招金矿业（1818.HK）
瑞金矿业（0246.HK）
澳华黄金 (1862.HK)
紫金矿业H股2899比A股601899升值了百分五十多，2899跟招金矿业1818差不多。
这里有美国的金矿。

看到香港和美国金矿差不多，但是上边看大陆落后. 可是看看一年的:

如果黄金价格比通货膨胀升值多或者价格下降比通货紧缩少: 我是金矿牛. 最近金矿股票升值了,但是黄金没升值. 如果股市下降和黄金不升值,金矿股票会下降.

透露一个消息: 我买了NSU和GLD.

2009/05/07 News

Light posting lately. I've been studying up on the German hyperinflation (德国恶性通货膨胀) of the early 1920s, and will post about it in future.

Markets are gaining on no news and bad news (stress tests at U.S. banks). China's PMI numbers indicate economic expansion in April, and positive reports from companies such as Alibaba (1688.HK) have helped send the market higher. Optimism is in charge.

On to gold and gold miners:
From the Financial Times: China to continue buying gold

China is likely to buy more gold as a means of diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, after having recently doubled its holdings of the precious metal, the Financial Times reported, citing gold analysts.

The newspaper said analysts believe China will buy gold mostly from domestic producers to avoid pushing international prices higher.

More here:中国将继续增加黄金
Domestic producers include Sino Gold (1862.HK), Lingbao Gold (3330.HK), Zijin Mining (2899.HK), and Jinshan Gold (JIN.TO).

From Caijing:

Zijin Mining Shareholder Cuts Stake
Zijin Mining Group Co, China's largest gold producer, said its second-largest individual shareholder has lowered his stake to 1.72 percent from 2.24 percent.
Ke Xiping sold around 74.8 million Zijin Mining shares between April 27 and May 5.
After the sale, Ke and Hengxing Group, in which Ke holds 95.4 percent, held a combined 4.99 percent of Zijin Mining.

紫金矿业第二大自然人股东减持7477万股

And finally, the big news:

Taiwan and China are planning to permit trading of each others’ shares for the first time as ties improve 60 years after their civil war ended.

A so-called trading platform may list as many as 30 stocks from each market, said Schive Chi, chairman of the Taiwan Stock Exchange. Now, investors are restricted from directly investing in each others’ equities. An agreement on the dual-listing of exchange-traded funds is also expected this year, he said.

iShares Taiwan (EWT)is 65 percent off it's lows this year. The potential gains for Taiwan's economy and stock market are much greater than for China, due to their relative size, but the cross-straits trade will be a boost to the entire region's economy.

Copper Stocks

Fushi Copperweld (FSIN)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)
Southern Copper (PCU)
Xingye Copper <兴业铜业国际集团有限公司> (0505.HK)
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group <兴业铜业国际集团有限公司> (000630.SZ)
Yunnan Copper <云南铜业股份有限公司>(000878.SZ)
Jiangxi Copper <江西銅業股份有限公司> (600362.SS, 0358.HK)
Zijin Mining <紫金矿业集团> (601899.SS, 2899.HK)

普通的经济情况变成了因为中国购买了很多铜。原来，很多人说全世界最棒的经济学家是铜老师 （Dr. Copper is the best economist in the world.). 现在价不说经济经济复苏， 所以上面的趋势不清楚。还有考虑股市复苏让很多股票升值几百百分, 包括垃圾—破产金融公司。

在阿富采挖铜

前一年半，中国冶金科工集团获阿富汗埃纳克铜矿开采权

阿富汗矿产部长昨日宣布，中国国有企业中国冶金科工集团公司(China Metallurgical Group)已获得阿富汗一个大型铜矿的开采权，此前该集团同意向该项目投资30亿美元。

此笔交易是阿富汗历史上规模最大的外国投资，中冶集团将由此获得在喀布尔附近埃纳克(Aynak)铜矿开采高品质铜的权利。

中冶集团每年将向阿富汗政府支付4亿美元的开采费。一些地质学家认为，这可能是全球最大的铜矿。

。。。中国媒体报道称，中冶集团与另两家中国矿产集团联合竞标这个阿富汗项目，它们分别是中国最大的铜生产商江西铜业(Jiangxi Copper)和中国领先的黄金矿业企业紫金矿业集团(Zijin Mining Group)。

现在，美军正在保障这里的安全，以使中国能开采世界上最大的铜矿之一。

在位于喀布尔以南山区的塔利班盘踞地，美军正在保障这里的安全，以使中国能开采世界上最大的铜矿之一。作为价值30亿美元项目的一部分，一家中国公司正在开辟通往埃纳克铜矿的土路。美军上月沿着这条路搭建了基地，还在中国筑路工人营地外扎营。美军的部署不是为了保护中国投资———阿富汗有史以来最大的投资 ———而是为封锁塔利班向首都喀布尔的渗透。但如果这能为阿富汗经济振兴所需的项目提供安全，也是受欢迎的。

阿富汗首席矿业和能源顾问拉赫曼·阿什拉夫说：“当我们有钱投资像埃纳克这样的项目时，就能给人们提供工作机会。”确实，该项目能给贫困的阿富汗注入数亿美元的资源费和税收收入，并创造数以千计的急需的工作岗位。

紫金矿业集团 (2899.HK)和江西铜业 (0358.HK)从52礼拜最低的价个它们升值344%和277%。

Nice move for GR Vietnam - Watch List Update

I added GR Vietnam (0139.HK)to my watch list of Hong Kong and Mainland listed stocks because it provides exposure to the Vietnamese consumer market. Shares have popped in the past week though. It had been sitting around HK$0.05 to HK$0.06 for about three months, but it rose to HK$0.17 today. It's up 246% since I added it to my watch list on January 22.

Other shares are up as well due to an overall market rally. The best performers among my January 22 new additions was Ming Hing Water (added January 20; 0402.HK), up 7.69%; Sinoma (1893.HK, up 7.91%; China Dongxiang (3818.HK), up 16.35%; Lingbao Gold (3330.HK), up 43.37%; and Zijin Mining (2899.HK), up 21.50%. The worst performance came from Sinofert (0297.HK), down 3.16%; and Swire Pacific (added January 7; 0019.HK), a Marc Faber pick, down 18.08%.

There's still plenty of shares on my list down in a range from 30-60+%, especially in the materials sector.

China's stimulus package should deliver a boost to some infrastructure companies. I notice the chart on Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery <上海振华港机>(600320.SS) has had a nice steady rebound from November.

Mengniu (2319.HK), mentioned on this blog before, lost 10% on Wednesday and fell as much as 20% during the day. Caijing<财经> has two articles on the company: Chemical Additives in Mengniu Milk Prohibited and Dumex, Mengniu Dairy Products under Probe. Originally I thought they'd be able to pull out of the scandal, but the brand erosion may be approaching the point of no return.