Depression Versus Recovery in Employment

A V-shape recovery is possible if employment quickly rebounds. The initial wave of job losses were in service industries such as restaurants. I don't want to downplay the economic hit from these job losses, but these jobs can come back very quickly if the lockdowns lift and restaurants re-open. Then comes the question of how quickly people will return to normal behavioral patterns. This should create a lamba-shaped Λ decline in unemployment.

The middle scenario of a temporary or normal recession will happen if the recovery takes longer than expected. This scenario is looking more likely with lockdowns extending into mid-May and with substantial job losses piling up, now more than 30 million over the past six weeks. If some restaurants go out of business, it will take longer for new ones to open. If some people decide to sit on unemployment because they get higher benefits, some restaurants may close. (See: A problem for NY businesses: Workers won’t return when they can get ‘unemployment on steroids’) I personally know of a Subway franchise that closed years ago because the owner couldn't find reliable employees. If millions of people are paid not to work, it could damage the recovery. Unemployment would come down over time, but it would have a lower-case n shape in this case, with the final drop probably coming as the federal cash payments disappear.

The depression scenario comes into play if job losses do not experience a quick decline to below prior recession peaks. The 4-week moving average of initial claims has declined, but this past week's number was 3 million job losses. At the peak of the 1980s recession, the worst recession since the 1930s, the 4-week moving average of initial claims peaked at 674,250. Adjusted for roughly 50 percent growth in the labor force takes the peak number to around 1 million job losses. A depression scenarion might look like a capital-N shape, where job losses fall because the coronavirus burst fades, but if new job losses start piling up, the number could turn up again. Pay attention to reports of job losses tied to the economy and not coronavirus, that's a sign that a recession has taken hold. The depression risk is elevated because of front-loaded losses. Having a normal recession now would be like a depression because unemployment is starting from 10 percent.
Continuing claims show the same situation. It's not simply that this number needs to peak and turn lower, it's that it needs to fall below prior peaks. Otherwise, the economy will "recover" into a recession.
It's hard to make a comparison with the early 1980s because that was the end of a long bear market, the peak of inflation, the peak in interest rates, etc., but stocks did drop more then 20 percent during the recession. If there is a V-shape recovery, the case can be made that the lows are in. If the recovery is more of a U-shape, the lows probably aren't in. Furthermore, the odds that this is the start of a bear market start rising rapidly if this turns into a 6-month or longer recession because "recovery" may not complete until sometime in late 2021 or into 2022 in that case. Finally, it's worth noting that labor force participation has fallen. It is too early to say anything other than, a bunch of people have stopped looking for work. Hopefully, it's because they're getting paid better to stay at home (and hopefully that policy ends). Otherwise, it's worth remembering the labor force needed nearly 4 years to retake the October 2008 level.

Palladium Doesn't Say Recovery Yet

There's a shortage of palladium, mines are shut because of the coronavirus, risk assets are rebounding strongly and the economy is expected to recover by the summer. Bullish set-up for palladium no?

And yet it still looks bearish here.


Analyst Warns Shenzhen Home Prices Could Fly Out Of the Universe

As astute China analysts warned, stimulus efforts would likely flow into housing. They were yet again proven correct: Coronavirus: China’s bank loans intended to help small businesses are actually fanning Shenzhen’s property bubble

It sounds like the situation is much worse than initial reports. One analysts says the situation is out of control and prices could "fly into the universe." Some areas have seen prices jump nearly 40 percent since March. The government in one part of the city said 63,000 yuan per square meter is the "guidance price" as market prices soar past 100,000 yuan per sqm. The government may bring the situation under control, but the chaos unleashed by stimulus efforts is a reminder of the limits of government intervention.

iFeng: 深圳再出手整治楼市:下架高价二手房源,出台官方指导价
Shenzhen ’s Guangming District, which is on the verge of public opinion, shot the first shot in this round of special rectification actions in the property market. The Economic Observer was informed that the Guangming District Housing and Construction Bureau verbally communicated 63,000 yuan / square meter to the four hot spots in the area. "Guidance price".

...A second-hand disk in Huanggang, Futian, Shenzhen, has been lively since the end of March. The 500-person owner WeChat Group has become lively.

In March, the average second-hand transaction price of the community hovered around 73,000 yuan / square meter. However, the unit price of RMB 70,000 from Guangming, Longgang and other areas outside Shenzhen's original special zone touched some owners' nerves. In mid-April, an owner called in the group: less than 100,000 yuan (per square meter) did not make a shot, and three or two small owners responded immediately.

"I am bullish to 80,000 yuan (per square meter)." Other owners in the group proposed. However, he was immediately refuted by the appeal to the owners, "What is 80,000 yuan (per square meter), many second-hand disks in Longgang are more than 70,000 yuan (per square meter)."

When faced with doubts and objections for the second time, the owners who called for price increases emphasized again, "It is already 100,000+ times, and it is still saying that 80,000 is not for sale."
iFeng: 深圳整治楼市再出手 部分高价二手房强制下架华润城被重点监控
In this troubled spring of 2020, the property market is not calm. The Shenzhen property market is particularly weird, as if to repeat the madness of 2015.2016. Fortunately, all kinds of chaos are being attacked by the serial policies of government departments.

Following the severe crackdown on the new house market, "covering up for sale", "high-price tea consumption", and the suspension of online signing of Wanxi and other projects, the regulators' rectification actions on the second-hand housing market are also in full swing.

On April 22, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and other five departments stated in a joint statement: "Public opinion reflects the recent high price of second-hand housing in some residential areas. After preliminary investigation, it is mainly due to the excessively high listing prices of some homeowners and serious market deviation Case."

Based on this, the Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau first required all intermediary platforms to delist houses with unrealistically high prices.

The 21st Century Business Herald survey revealed that at present, Nanshan, Shekou, Baozhong, Guangming and other areas are all required to be removed from the intermediary platform.

According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Agents Association, taking Shenzhen City Red Disk and Nanshan Benchmark Community China Resources City Phase I as an example, this month its highest quotation on three real estate information platforms exceeded 200,000 yuan per square meter. The unit price of the online listing is 65.9% and 55.7% higher than the average listing price of the community, respectively, which is significantly higher.

According to the industry in Shenzhen, the current second-hand housing units with a unit price of 200,000 cannot be listed for trading.

Recently, "Guangming House Price Breaks 7" has also been hotly discussed. According to information on the Internet, the Deyoumen store in Guangming District, Shenzhen has issued an internal notice, "Chuanqishan, Guangda Daidi, Xindi Central, Jiulongtai four key real estate external networks The unit price of the display shall not exceed 63,000 yuan. Those exceeding the price will be removed from the shelves as soon as possible.

According to insiders of the intermediary agency, they have received notice from the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau that all online and offline listing information and window advertisements must be true and not fictitious, and no listings that are significantly higher than the market price should be given to property owners. Yuan went to investigate immediately.

Starting from April 28, the Housing and Urban-rural Construction Bureau will work with the Market Supervision Bureau and the Public Security Bureau to begin offline inspections. A number of intermediaries have confirmed the news that the store will be inspected.

Relevant persons from the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association revealed that hotspot areas and high-priced houses have been monitored as early as April 18, and it is expected that the first batch of transactional house lists will be announced after May 1 and will be regularly announced in the future.

At present, the reporter has landed on shell and other real estate information platforms, and has not been able to inquire about houses with a unit price of more than 200,000 yuan / square meter in China Resources City, with a maximum of 195,200 yuan / square meter, and there is indeed no 63,000 yuan / square meter in Guangming New District The above listings had previously been listed in Guangda, which had broken the price of 70,000. Now only 60,700 / sqm of listings are for sale.

Li Yujia, principal investigator of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out: "The current second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has completely failed. It is necessary to intervene with strong administrative means to prevent it from flying out of the universe. Unconventional periods call for unconventional measures."

Under the striking rhythm, the long-rumored “Shenzhen second-hand housing guide price” is also brewing. According to Shenzhen second-hand housing intermediaries, the official will limit the price increase of second-hand housing in the Shenzhen area, and is discussing policies and details, including prevention There are loopholes such as Yin-Yang contracts in the market.

Li Yujia believes that "on the basis of the assessment of the area (serving the taxation of second-hand housing), the guide price is issued in the unit of the area. As long as this guide price is controllable, the price of the entire area is anchored, and the price rises in groups and the violence The logic of ascension collapses. "
The government is cracking down on developers. This iFeng article discusses the punishment of a developer: 深圳千万豪宅捂盘挨罚!200套房源遭锁定 有中介因喝茶费被终身禁业

Who Returns in May: The Bear or the Ghost of 1999?

The first part of this post is a rehash and link to other posts. The new info is at the bottom.

On December 26, 2018 I posted What a Tantrum, Is 1998 in Play?
Bull scenario: the economy will hold up and avoid recession. Interest rates are rising and will remain elevated because there's no recession and core inflation will stay near 2 percent. The spike in volatility is the "equal and opposite" reaction of ultra-low volatility during QE, especially the final phase from June 2016 through January 2018. Investors expect low or even no volatility and an accomodative Fed. Investors were asking the Fed to stop hiking or even cut interest rates after a modest double-digit decline. They are behaving like coddled children throwing a tantrum and the Fed is the parent putting their foot down. Investors reacted by losing their minds, full blown on the floor kicking and screaming tantrum.

The Nasdaq fell 20 percent in 1998. Credit risk spiked in 1998, as it is spiking now. There are signs the global economy is weakening, but there were also clear signs in 1998 because that sell-off came at the tail end of the Asian Crisis. I remain bearish, but 1998 is the only non-bear scenario left. Even that scenario is not very bullish, since the top was 18 months after the 1998 correction.
It was a very good call as far as the market goes. I had covered my shorts a few days earlier and went long, but didn't stay in that position too long. I thought 1998 was a possibility, but didn't follow through. The Fed would eventually cut rates and expand repo operations, an echo of 1999 policy.

I discussed the idea a few more times. This first reference was actually in early 2018: End of Rally or End of Bull: Is It 1987, 1994, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2007 or 2014?
It's 1998
1998 Redux: Bonds Not Behaving Yet, 1966 Rising?
Late 1990s Analog Again: Summer of '98

In early February 2020 when stocks still hadn't sold off for coronavirus yet, I was still focused on a 1998-2000 scenario.

I posed two charts in That 1998-1999 Analog Again
I've also wondered if coronavirus could produce another melt-up scenario if the virus lifted or stimulus/QE was too much. Could this all be a more complex topping pattern similar to the 1998?

Finally, let me draw your attention to the dates of these posts. They have usually come about 1 month before being proven correct or incorrect. The dates on some of these posts are Feb 2018, the weekend right before the vol implosion. Sept 2018, right before the 3-month swoon. Dec 2018, right at the market bottom. May 2019, right as a tradable correction unfolded. July 2019, right as a tradable correction unfolded and then would fail into Sept, becoming a melt-up into Feb 2020. I'm not writing these posts to time the market. They are the result of ideas bounding around long enough that I put them down, from seeing charts at inflection/continuation points or sparked by what's being discussed in the wider market. I'm going to leverage up my current position and intermediate-term outlook in the market soon, or I'm going to abandon it. It is time to fish or cut bait.

Why again now? First, let me repost a magazine cover from 1999, one I posted here in March.
I believe in market cycles and that human behavior rhymes. What sparked this post is a confluence of anecdotes, echoes of the late 1990s and important levels in the stock market indexes. The collapse in oil is a major echo of the late 1990s. The stock market has retraced 50 percent to 61.8 percent of its decline. If this is a bear market, the market should turn lower very soon. It should also turn down here for seasonal reasons (sell in May) and for a retest of the rally. If the market keeps rising, a V-shaped market rebound becomes far more likely.

Another data point: Robin Track. Robinhood has a tracker that shows stocks ranked by their popularity on the site, along with how many users hold the stock over time. The site appears to be down at the moment, but here is one of Norwegian Cruise Lines to illustrate retail behavior:
"Dumb" money has beaten "smart" money over much of the past 12 years because the "dumb" strategy of "buy the dip, the Fed has your back" has been proven correct. I'm not sure it has ever been this extreme though. Granted I'm bearish, but this behavior looks insane to me. It looks like retail investors are throwing caution to the wind and piling into beaten down companies. At bear market bottoms, speculative excess is gone. Prices may enjoy a partial V-shape rebound, but the "number of users" wouldn't look like that green line. This behavior may show speculation is alive and well, that the bull market is alive and well. It may also be the final speculative gasp that comes at the start of a bear market, the very behavior that, when it reverses, will cause a breaking of the March 23 lows when the bear resumes.

Another anecdote: I was served up an ad for RagingBull.com while on YouTube. It claimed it was the fastest growing investor education site and was pushing on options strategy. This was a double-wow for me because aside from the content of ad itself, Raging Bull was started up in the late 1990s and it was popular during the dotcom bubble:
Additionally, you may have seen this chart go around the past couple of weeks: The Market Is Now Just 5 Stocks: S&P Now More Concentrated In Top 5 Names Then Ever
In response, I've started seeing arguments for why this could continue, why the S&P 500 can keep growing as a share of GDP, why these stocks could keep increasing as a share of the market. Those are the same arguments I heard in the late 1990s, and that I think you have to believe if stock market indexes are to keep rising. I had a similar thesis in 2011 as gold was topping: either this is incipient hyperinflation or this gold move is about to terminate. The fact that people are coming up with theoretical justifications for the market's valuation indicates it has reached an extreme.

I'm once again heavily short the market. I believe the 1998 scenario is in fact played out. If not, if this is more like 1999, then stocks will keep rising through May. The final top is off in the future, perhaps the fall or sometime in 2021 depending on if the Federal Reserve keeps adding support or not.

With respect to the Fed and government stimulus, that will decline if the virus fades. Stimulus is also likely to decline after the election. The additional debt added is a repeat of QE1, QE2 and QE3, all of which led to a potentially larger collapse. The current effort has weakened the economy and stock market. Deflation remains the greater threat until the government or Federal Reserve break their policies and start literally printing fiat currency backed by nothing. Everything done thus far is backed with debt and U.S. treasuries.

In order to fully eliminate my bearish outlook, the U.S. dollar must peak. The U.S. dollar rallied in the late 1990s and into the the bear market though. If the U.S. dollar breaks out along with U.S. equities, that would be another confirming signal of a 1998-2000 scenario. EURUSD is still very close to a breakdown, as I showed in a post last Friday: Countdown to Market Mayhem: Sell Now And Go Away or Buy Buy Buy.

Update: If a melt-up or rally in to new highs follows, look for the yield curve to resume its decline.


Half of Chinese Urban Resident Have All Their Wealth in Real Estate

Urban resident's real estate assets as a percentage of wealth. Left is percentage of wealth, right is the percentage of households in this category.
iFeng: 4成家庭拥有两套及以上房产 你被平均了吗?
China housing is a bubble in at least relative terms given its share of household assets.


Countdown to Market Mayhem: Sell Now And Go Away or Buy Buy Buy

The EURUSD cross threatened a major breakdown on Friday (blue line), but recovered. It is still within a declining channel, but that channel points to a breakdown in the chart. Moreover, EURUSD spent 3 days below the blue support line last month, March 19-23. The U.S. equity market bottomed on March 23.

The Federal Reserve meets this week with a policy statement on Wednesday.
I'm open to the "Milkshake Theory" of a rising U.S. dollar attracting capital into U.S. markets, but remain bearishly positioned. I also believe that even if the Milkshake is correct, it will proceed in waves punctuated by deflationary waves. Here is iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) also sitting on a long-term trendline.


Jingzhou, Hubei Reverses Real Estate Easing

Chinese cities have implemented some easing policies following the coronavirus demand shock, but anything that hints at a generalized easing is being rolled back, even in hard-hit Hubei province.

iFeng: 房地产,房产,公积金,公积金贷款,楼市,存活期仅2天!全国尺度最大楼市宽松政策被收回
Jingzhou City, Hubei Province announced a new property market policy on April 20, which included reducing the down payment ratio for the first suite to 20%, down payment for the second suite to 30%, and exemption from deed tax for a limited time. But the policy only "survived" for two days. The official website of the Jingzhou Municipal Government issued a notice on the evening of April 22, stating that it was inconsistent with some provisions of the "Notice of the General Office of the Provincial People ’s Government on Printing and Distributing Measures to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Construction Industry and Real Estate Market. The municipal government studied and decided to stop implementing the property market policy issued on April 20.

Jingzhou withdraws the new policy of the property market. According to the "Jingzhou Opinions" issued by the People ’s Government of Jingzhou on April 20, it is clear from now until June 30, 2020 A few days ago, after purchasing a newly-built commercial house in this city, after paying the deed tax, the financial department will reward the full amount. First-line medical staff participating in epidemic prevention and control purchase houses in this city, and the preferential period of house purchase deed tax is extended to December 31, 2020. The maximum amount of personal housing provident fund loans increased from 450,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan. During the epidemic prevention and control period, if the personal housing provident fund loan cannot be repaid normally before June 30, no overdue treatment will be made and no penalty interest will be charged.

For personal loans, the "Jingzhou Opinion" also made it clear that it will speed up the lending rate of personal loans. Because of the personal loans that have been submitted for approval for the purchase of real estate and parking spaces, banks should speed up the lending and ensure the orderly placement of personal housing loans. For the first time, a resident family purchases a commercial personal housing loan for ordinary commercial housing with a down payment ratio of not less than 20%; for a resident family who owns one set of housing and the corresponding purchase price is not settled, apply for a commercial personal housing loan again to improve the living conditions. For commercial housing, the down payment ratio is not less than 30%.

According to relevant media reports, prior to this, the first down payment for commercial housing in Jingzhou was generally not less than 30%, and some properties were not less than 20%. When purchasing a second suite, the down payment ratio is not less than 50%, and some properties are not less than 40%. At that time, Li Guozheng, director of the Central China Market Research Center of the Central Finger Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Daily Economic News (micro signal: nbdnews) that the New Deal in the Jingzhou property market has been very supportive of the consumer side.

At present, it is the largest easing by a city in China. Li Guozheng believes that "after the Jingzhou sample, other cities in Hubei, such as Wuhan, are expected to introduce a more targeted new property market policy." However, two days later, the official website of the Jingzhou Municipal Government was on April 22 The notice was issued because it was inconsistent with the relevant notice clauses at the provincial level, and it was decided to stop the implementation of the new property market policy issued on April 20. According to China Real Estate News, a real estate executive said frustratedly, "Why is the government ’s policy changing all the time, and frequent day trips? This is really confusing!"

...Zhang Dawei believes that under the influence of the epidemic, the strict real estate regulation in the past should indeed be adjusted, especially in line with the principle of housing and housing, and certain policies should be introduced to meet the needs and improvements. This is not Violating the principle of regulation and control of the property market will not have much impact on the market. However, including loosening policies such as a marked reduction in down payment, there is indeed a suspicion of encouraging real estate speculation. At present, most of the policies to save enterprises for the adjustment of purchase restriction policies, talent policies, and provident fund policies can be implemented. On the whole, property market policies continue to occur frequently, and temptations to loosen policies in cities around the world will still frequently occur. The local government did not consider it before the policy was issued, and recalled it freely after it was introduced. For the market, the interference was very serious.


Market Top Lost Horizontal

The ratio of the DJIA and 30-year bond price. Falling ratio indicates stock nonperformance, rising ratio indicates stock outperformance.
The horizontal is a smidge over the 130 level. The 126 level is the most conservative line in the sand, below that I think we have a clear breakdown underway.
A decline of less than 4 percent in the Dow or a less than 4 percent rise in the 30-year bond price, or some combination, would take this chart below 126.



Original Post from 4/19/20 1:03 PM: I have a bearish position on Netflix based on my long-term outlook. It is not for the faint of heart. Netflix broke to the upside last week before potentially failing on Friday. Earnings are Tuesday after the bell. I have no idea which way Netflix will move, but if it say, gaps up to $500 after earnings, I will add to my position.

Here's my bearish case: I think either the past quarter (this earnings report) or the current quarter will be "peak" earnings for Netflix for the next year, if not longer. When dealing with a bubble stock, the end comes when investors can no longer extrapolate growth into the future. Investors drive stocks into bubble territory on the hope of compounding growth into the future. During the growth phase, this number can move around and produce big pullbacks in the stock, but as long as the prospect of high growth is out there, the bears are fighting against a classic "castle-in-the-air" story. When growth peaks, valuation takes over. The door closes on the cockeyed-optimism scenarios. Even a neutral valuation could cut a stock in half. Outright pessimism drives them down 90 percent or more as was seen after the dotcom bubble.

As subscriber growth slows, content spending is ramping up. This will eat into earnings growth and cause a revaluation of the shares. Along with an overall bear market in stocks, this could eventually trade down to the $60 area where there are gaps on the chart.

Update: Netflix reported results.

The numbers are better than expected. Subscriber growth was stronger than expected, more than double forecasts, but much of it was in Latin America and Asia. Netflix also said it suffered from the strong dollar.

The market initially spiked more than 10 percent on the positive aspects, then gave it back. It is a very good quarterly report, but the context is growth and performance during a perfect economic environment for the service. It think it doesn't look great with that context, but the market may disagree. Will find out in tomorrow's regular trading session.

Predictable: Shenzhen Home Prices Soar

Back on Feb 5 I posted: Inflation Coming? China Reverses Deleveraging Effort Amid Coronavirus Outbreak
China will help companies amid the ongoing shutdown related to the coronavirus outbreak. Many of these policies are a reversal of deleveraging efforts made in the past year or two. They are loosening lending and reversing the crackdown on underpayment of social security. The social security taxes will be repaid later, but how many businesses will take the opportunity to load up on credit?
Betting on Chinese companies gaming the system is the closest thing to a sure bet and sure enough, they did it. Cash poured in Shenzhen housing.

Caixin: Business Relief Loans May Have Flowed Into Shenzhen Property Market
A recent usual surge of housing prices in China’s southern city Shenzhen raised red flags for regulators who started a probe into whether relief loans to small and micro businesses amid the Covid-19 pandemic flowed into the property market.

Shenzhen’s housing price rally has been leading tier-1 cities in China since March. New condo prices rose by 0.5% in March from the previous month, and existing condo prices grew by 1.6% on a monthly basis, three times the national average among the biggest cities, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows. Price growth effectively stalled in February because there were hardly any housing sales as people stayed home.

Now the Shenzhen property market has a relatively high leverage rate, mostly because small businesses use their current properties as collateral to get cheap loans and invest in the housing market, according to a senior executive at the Shenzhen office of real estate brokerage Lianjia.
Chinese article at iFeng has more details: 央行动手彻查!李迅雷:实体没戏,都去玩虚的

The Second Most Important Chart in the World

The U.S. dollar is the most important chart in the world. Take your pick of which dollar chart is the most representative, but most USD crosses and USD indexes paint a similarly bullish story. If you subscribe to the Milkshake Theory from Santiago Capital this can be bullish for U.S. stocks. I see that potential, but lean bearish on U.S. stocks here because I see that as more probable. Whichever way U.S. markets move, a breakout in the U.S. dollar will be bearish for emerging markets and most foreign assets.

Which brings us to the second most important chart in the world: the Chinese yuan. USDCNY was in the prior post on the dollar. Here it is again. It is a very clear bullish setup with a chart target around the 7.50 level.
What has me excited right now is how many foreign currency crosses are also at major support levels. What you see in USD is confirmed when looking through EUR, JPY, etc. When many charts show the same thing, such as a gold bull market in many currencies, it points to a strong underlying bull move.

Additionally, other crosses are on the cusp of confirming breakouts. Which brings me to the next two charts. EURCNY and CNYJPY. The next breakdown move in both would be a collapse in the euro and a collapse in CNY (breakout in the yen). However, the euro chart could easily swing to a bullish breakout if CNY breaks down more than the euro. And that makes EURCNY the second most important chart in the world.
There are two potential outcomes. One is the euro breaks down vs CNY, which would be major for global markets and would push DXY into a breakout. I don't think that is the most likely scenario. The other scenario is CNY breaks down. That is where USD and JPY charts point. The strength of a move in CNY moves could determine (or at least signal) whether the next leg of the dollar rally is a developed market rout or an EM rout. I'm betting the latter.


Apocalypse Dollar: You're Gonna Need a Bigger Wheelbarrow

When the dollar soars, other assets will be carted around in wheelbarrows. That's sort of a joke. Today was the oil edition with May crude plunging as low as negative $40 in settlement as storage fills up.

All of the charts below are either basing patterns waiting to breakout or have broken out. What's amazing to me is how not only the USD charts all look like very bullish setups, but many crosses also look like excellent trades or ready for major moves such as AUDJPY and EURJPY. Harmonic convergence!

First up is the trade weighted USD, broad. The discontinued index is on top. They stopped that series at the end of 2019, right before it would break out of 20-year basing pattern. The new series shows the breakout. Note they are different series so they don't line up exactly.
If you're looking at the majors and DXY, the most important currency is the euro. This is still a massive topping pattern or basing if flipping it.
See that breakdown and reversal in USDEUR? That looks similar to what happened in USDMXN.
USDBRL and USDINR have already resumed their breakouts.
Probably the cross of lowest confidence: USDJPY. Monster 20-year inverse H&S or a 6-year right triangle waiting to break lower. I lean towards bullish on USDJPY given my overall outlook, but need the right triangle to be broken.
Some other crosses of note
Bonus chart