Western Ruling Class Starts Reaping the Migrant Whirlwind

The open door of the West is about to slam shut.

For the past decade, Western ruling regimes pushed mass migration on a public that wanted immigration restriction. They iced out nationalist parties, calling them far-right, extremist and so on for desiring sane migration policies. After sowing the wind with this propaganda, they now reap the whirlwind. If they fail to tighten migration laws, the "far-right" wins. If they tighten migration laws, the "far-right" wins.

France seeks to break deadlock over controversial immigration law

A deal has been struck:

The latest deal also introduces migration quotas, makes it harder for immigrants' children to become French, and says that dual nationals sentenced for serious crimes against the police could lose French citizenship.

French Torch Pro-Immigration Politician's Home

Remix: French mayor in support of new asylum center in seaside town has his house burned down

The house of a left-wing mayor in France, who supports a controversial plan to establish an asylum center in the small seaside town of Saint-Brevin-les-Pins, has been burned down in a suspected arson attack.

Immigrants to the USA are probably the safest because the USA considers itself "a nation of immigrants," but there will probably be some rough goings for those who are openly unassimilated and also observably anti-American. In Europe, I'm expecting things won't turn out very badly for the migrants and it'll spark a backlash that will hit long-term citizens such as Turks in Germany.

Depression or a Rally?

ZH: French, German Leaders Warn Populations "Prepare For Total Cut-Off Of Russian Gas" As Social Unrest Looms

Germany too is fearing the worst, as its main conduit for Russian natural gas, Nord Stream 1, has long been scheduled to go down for 10-day maintenance starting Monday. But the persisting fear is that Moscow won't bring it back online, for the purpose of squeezing the German economy further as punishment for its Ukraine stance, forcing Berlin into emergency rationing.

Germany's population of some 80-million is reliant on Russia for over one-third of total gas supplies, and there's no immediate alternative. Should Moscow use "routine" maintenance as an excuse to keep supplies halted, some German publications are even predicting social unrest as the squeeze gets put on the working class population in particular.

Vertical moves up and down in energy prices occurs because of marginal changes in supply and demand. Oil has traded above $130 per barrel twice in the past 25 years and also below $10 twice. That was in the context of a functioning global markets.

VD: A Dire Situation

Three years ago, a megawatt hour of gas cost EUR 7. The price is now EUR 175, and is expected to rise to at least 250.

I'm at a loss for words. The Baizuo of Western Europe, at the behest of Baizuo in Washington, DC, are taking steps that could result in significant deaths of their own people, for no clear gain. There is not a kinetic, existential war between the West and Russia at the moment. Energy and materials aren't being funneled into armament factories for the war, fuel for jets, tanks and missiles. They're destroying their ability to resist Russia with these shutdowns. It looks like they're surrendering rather than fighting.

It makes sense if they are Greens though. The destruction of the West, industry and capitalism was always an aim of the radical elements. It makes sense if the governments are at war with their own people. It makes sense if depression and borderline starvation is a preferred solution to what otherwise might be a fierce domestic resistance to the "Great Reset." It makes sense that truckers and farmers, who could form the core infrastructure of serious domestic resistance movements, would be targeted first. It makes sense that Russia would "cooperate" in destroying the West and sinking into a century or more of oblivion.

At any other time I'd say, "this won't happen." They'll come to their senses, this is more rhetoric than policy. Yet at every step this year, that was the wrong interpretation. They've taken that step and then proposed an even more destructive step that was also followed through with. 

The decision tree from here is as bifurcated as can be. On one path, Europe takes a step that creates irreversible damage. It could be deaths in winter, a depression unlike anything since the 1930s or Weimar Germany, and/or a revolt that becomes violent against the political/media class. A revolt like what was seen in Sri Lanka. On the other path, Europe blinks and decides against collapsing itself on purpose, for no good purpose. Markets and economies that are braced for hell breathe a sign of relief.

One possible sign of relief: Canada to return repaired Russian pipeline part to Germany

Canada has announced it will return to Germany a repaired turbine of the Russian Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is a core source of the gas supply to Germany.

...Ukraine had urged Canada not to return the repaired part, saying it would undermine sanctions against Russia.

...But when announcing its decision on Saturday, Canada's Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said it was taken to "support Europe's ability to access reliable and affordable energy as they continue to transition away from Russian oil and gas."

...The minister particularly cited concern for the German economy as well as German citizens, saying they could be left unable to heat their homes during winter.

Le Pen Crushes Macron in the Colonies

Turns out the French colonies are very much opposed to the vaccine passport system. This represents a 30 to 40 percent swing in the vote shares from 2017, when Macron captured more than 70 percent of the vote versus Le Pen.

Guyane : Le Pen 60,7 % – Macron 39,3 %

Guadeloupe : Le Pen 69,6 % – Macron 30,4 %

Martinique : Le Pen 60,87 % – Macron 39,13%

H/T: French Colonies Reject Macron

The data comes from the Twitter feed of Sondaggi BiDiMedia. The official results are supposed to be out at 2PM EST.

Update: Macro wins 58.2 percent to 41.8 percent. Not a surprise, unfortunately. Now we'll see if Macron voters get buyers remorse as quickly as the Biden voters.

The Closing of the West Begins

Two different stories, two different continents, same multi-generation trend underway. ZH: Canada Set To Announce 2 Year Ban On Foreign Purchases Of Residential Real Estate

"The foreign buyers ban will apply to condos, apartments, and single residential units," according to CTV. "Permanent residents, foreign workers, and students will be excluded from this new measure. Foreigners who are purchasing their primary residence here in Canada will be exempt."

The effects will likely be dramatic, as foreign purchases of real estate accounted for a lot of the bid that helped Canadian housing skyrocket to begin with.

"The timing is a classic case of closing the barn door after the horses have left," ForexLive's Adam Button wrote this week. He noted that the market had already started to cool in March amidst interest rate hikes.

It seems that way, but not if you realize this ban will last 20 or more years. Note that the Liberal government (nominally pro-diversity and pro-foreigner) is doing this, which means when the right returns to power, it will likely expand the rule.

Marine Le Pen is leading in a run-off poll for France's presidential election. Immigration is coming to an end. Mass deportation of unassimilated immigrants is coming. Western Europe could be virtually Muslim free by 2040, via deportations and assimilation and religious conversion.

As for the real estate topic, I discussed that before and explained why it is inevitable. A combination of affordability and demographic reality. Quick summary: the West was open because it could afford to be. The West made up the vast majority of middle class and wealthy people all the way until the fall of communism in the 1990s. In another decade, there will easily be several hundred million people who can outbid Americans for their homes. See this post from 2019: The West Will Restrict Foreign Home Ownership

Italy has been at the forefront of nationalist action and also, it drives home the point about the demographics. Here in 2017: Socionomics Alert: Europeans Hate Tourists, Let Alone Migrants and here in 2018: Mass Deportations Coming to Italy. (That was a provocative title as deportations are in the future, but I do expect Italy will lead the way unless France overtakes it here.) The big story there: they want tourism restricted! Italian cities that are popular tourist destinations, where it is a major part of the economy, want restrictions. For the same reason as real estate bans are coming: the number of people who can afford to visit far exceeds the carrying capacity of the culture.

I do not say this as an anti-natalist, but as reality: there are too many people. Only so many can live in a place without creating overcrowding. Each culture has a different definition. Chinese can live packed into small apartments, but many Americans want to live like lonely hermits in the woods. Chinese like "re nao," lots of loud noises, lights, fireworks going off. While the U.S. has noisy business districts, many places restrict noise and light pollution. I've lived in both countries and each has their merits. If forced to choose I'd pick rural American living, but I would miss China's cities. Still, the reality is the cultures are like oil and water in some ways, yin and yang. They cannot coexist on the same space of land. Hence noisy Chinatowns in China. And if you go to a foreign area in Beijing or Shanghai, you notice the population density and noise drops a great deal. Once I had a Chinese friend visit my hometown in the USA, a somewhat rural area, and she said "Oh it's so empty here, you can build so much!" Meanwhile, trying to get any development in that area is like pulling teeth because people live there because it is spacious.

Mass immigration into the West is already triggering conflict and it will boil over. Additionally, many immigrants came to the West because it is spacious and affordable, so you have situations such as immigrant Chinese demanding bans on foreign real estate buying in Vancouver. While the native white population might still have some misplaced racial guilt, recent immigrants may lead the charge for closing the doors to preserve the West they came for.

Toss in declining social mood, economic decline and the eventual financial and economic crises that will turn much of the West into "developing nations," plus the growing wave of nationalism, the coming wave of religious revival, the fracturing of the world into economic and information blocs...it's inevitable where this is headed at least for a time, if not for centuries to come. It could lead to a more peaceful world if nationalism turns inward instead of outward, but either way, the West will close its doors. Western universalism is ending right now, as we see with the Baizuo admin claiming "the world" is against Russia, which is far from the case. The West will eventually refocus on its European heritage, Christian religion and historic and cultural ties.

Since East Asia has far higher population density already and is far more culturally confident, it might become more open than the West for travel and living. It's likely the West will become intellectually open again. Today is the intellectual and moral Dark Age in the West with universities, media and science subverted by Mammon and Satan. The future will be brighter on that score, but good luck moving in for a few decades or more.

The Ruling Class Had It's Chance: Here Comes Ultra Nationalism

Politico: France — 2022 presidential election voting intention

Wiki: Opinion polling for the 2022 French presidential election

There is a fringe RW candidate, an author who hasn't even declared his candidacy. He is polling enough to land around 2nd or 4th in polls. France uses a runoff system that guarantees a fringe candidate will never win...so long as there is always a mainstream candidate in the run-off. The left it completely fractured. Macron is unpopular. Three RW candidates from centrist to "extremist" have enough votes between them such that if voters went completely strategic and picked two, it's possible they would knock out Macron.

Socialist Worker: Eric Zemmour—meet the new far right threat in France’s presidential election

Macron is widely and rightly unpopular for a series of attacks on workers, his repression against the Yellow Vest movement and his aloof contempt for ordinary people. Zemmour could win.

He puts forward a vile mixture of Islamophobia, racism toward migrants, sexism and homophobia. In many ways, his views are more openly racist than Le Pen’s.

Zemmour has several convictions for racist hate speech and puts forward the “great replacement” theory peddled by fascists. It claims that white Europeans are being replaced by immigrants.

He has described Muslims as “colonisers”, proposed a ban on first names such as Mohammed and called for two million migrants to be returned to their countries of origin.

Speaking to journalists on Monday he said, “I think many French people were waiting for this message. That the country is in danger of dying, subverted by an unprecedented wave of migration, that whole areas of the country have become enclaves of foreign Islamists.”

Back in 2014 I wrote Immigration Issue Set to Explode in America; Prepare for Political Volatility and finished by saying an ambitious politician in the U.S. had a wide open shot if they proposed immigration restriction. The link on the text went to an interview of Donald Trump.

I know far too little of French politics to make a forecast, but I believe this is true in general: "I think many French people were waiting for this message." Debate is stifled by media and BigTech companies in the U.S. more so than France, but France punishes people for "hate" speech. France seems to have a more open political debate, but the system is similarly geared towards the status quo. It would take two nationalist candidates coming in first and second in the first vote, and then making it into the run-off round for one of them to win.

Variables that would help outsider candidates include: new pandemic waves, vaccine failure, recession, inflation, random negative events such as foreign policy disasters or terrorism. A few of those are already rising in probability.

My sense is the ruling class is rolling all the dice on seizing power. The BigTech censorship, vaccine passports, IRS tracking bank accounts in the U.S., population lockdowns, hunting down protesters on social media, climate crisis to replace the pandemic as justification for all the same policies, the "you will own nothing and be happy plan" can work if they seize power and start rolling back dissent. If their boneheaded green policies, money printing, support for anti-Christian and anti-tradition culture (in some cases outright Satanic policies and messages) and general incompetence backfires, it could result in the roulette wheel tossing up a "double zero" who proposes serious reforms with broad popular support. France will be an important test on the issues of immigration and culture, but not particularly relevant for the U.S. unless there is a shock result that breaks the seal on currently "forbidden" policies such as immigration restrictions.

France Gives Warning of Inflation Riots to Come

The French stock market peaked in 2000. The 19th year of a bear market has recently begun as the market likely achieved its second bear market rally peak. Mood is turning down again within this overall negative trend.

Evening Standard: Paris riots: 133 people injured in France and over 400 arrested as protesters rage at rising cost of living

In the United States, President Trump was elected to reverse falling living standards falling life expectancy, porous borders, and low employment. He is not succeeding on any of these issues. Most of his challengers (in both parties) want to make these problems worse by doubling-down on existing policies that created the mess. Even if the establishment unleashes a major reform effort to solve these issues, the situation hitting France is coming anyway because the U.S. dollar will eventually succumb to revaluation along with all the fiat before it.

Another lesson from France: even regime opponents are lumped in with the establishment. Le Pen is as likely to go the way of the dodo as the establishment of France because they go together like yin and yang. The collapse of the GOP establishment along with the Democrat establishment in 2016 was a small taste of what is brewing.

Macron was the poster boy for the globalist establishment. He was a sign in 2017 that populism could be stopped. Instead, he has ignited a more violent response to globalist, establishment thinking. It is better to have reform come early and be successful than to deny "populists" power. If Trump fails in the U.S., the result will not be pretty. Parties shut out of power in Europe are more likely to win total control over political power when the public finally revolts. Those in power, such as 5-star and the League, are as likely to be tossed as anyone unless they take bold steps to change course.

If the central bankers of the world hadn't convinced enough people that they'd solved the crisis, right now we'd all be calling this The Greater Depression. Social mood is very negative and the establishment is still pushing more extreme versions of the very policies that ignite public rage. Immigration should have been restricted after the year 2000, but politicians are calling for open borders and mass migration. Banking should have been reformed after 2008, not rebooted. In the U.S., healthcare should have been reformed, instead Obamacare was a giveaway to insurance companies and made the IRS their enforcers.

Finally, a key to the French riots is they are leaderless. It's a genuine mass movement. There's no one to negotiate with. When this comes to the U.S., there will be completely different groups and ideologies rioting in the cities and rural areas. These groups will have 180 degree opposite demands. The center is already collapsing, but when the riots hit, it will be gone. If establishment centrists hold power at that time with a puppet like Macron, they will be powerless.

Negative Social Mood in Europe: Scallop Wars Resume

A foretaste of what could become regular occurrences if social mood sinks and international conflict, rather than civil, becomes an outlet for anger.
CBS: Drama on high seas as France-U.K. "Scallop Wars" escalate

Stone-throwing, insults and dangerous manoeuvres on the high seas: French and British fishermen clashed in the English Channel over a hoard of scallops Tuesday, the latest flare-up in a years-long war over the prized shellfish. The British were heavily outnumbered at five boats to around 35 French vessels, according to maritime official Ingrid Parot, and were eventually chased from the scallop-rich waters of the Baie de Seine area of Normandy.

The skirmish took place more than 12 nautical miles out to sea where the British are legally allowed to fish all year round.

But their French counterparts, restricted to fishing for scallops between October 1 and May 15, have accused the British of depleting stocks and want them to face the same rules.

"The French went to contact the British to stop them working and they clashed with each other. Apparently there was stone-throwing, but no injuries," said Normandy fishing chief Dimitri Rogoff.

Rogoff said "around 40" French boats had gathered overnight in protest at British "pillaging" of the scallop supply.

FT: What caused the ‘scallop war’ in the English Channel?

According to Agence France-Presse, the French fishermen were protesting against what they see as British overfishing of the prized Normandy scallops known as “coquille Saint-Jacques”.

The large molluscs are considered such a delicacy in France that local media outlets often report the first day they will be on sale. The scallops are sold in France with a red label that verifies them as being “the real Saint Jacques” from the waters off the coast of Normandy, Scotland or Ireland.

But French and British fisherman are bound by different rules when it comes to harvesting in the Channel.

French fisherman are only permitted to harvest the molluscs between October 1 and May 15, beyond a 12-nautical-mile exclusion zone off the coast, in accordance with environmental rules designed to maximise breeding.

British fishermen do not operate under the same restrictions, but generally agree not to raid the scallop stocks when the French are restricted from doing so.

There was another skirmish in 2012.

Bet Against Le Pen

I put my money where my mouth is, betting on Le Pen to lose the French election.

I bought Le Pen to lose since it is the cheaper contract. I'm in at 81 cents, a 23% payout if she loses.

Bet on Le Pen?

ZH: If Recent Trends Are Any Indication, Marine Le Pen Is Being Drastically Underpriced By Oddsmakers

There some sign of weak support for Macron. Guardian: Majority of Mélenchon supporters will not back Emmanuel Macron, poll finds

The polls show Macron up 60-40 on Le Pen. For comparison, the largest lead for Leave or Remain was 4 percent in the last month. The final average poll in the U.S. Presidential Election had Clinton up by 2 percent, but a few weeks earlier Trump odds were below 10 cents following the release of tapes with him making crude sexual remarks. Even at the end, he was below 30 cents.

In conclusion, on-the-ground pollsters in the UK and the US didn't do a terrible job. They were off by the little bit that matters, but both were very close elections. Those making predictions did terribly, especially when they attached odds of 99 percent. The prediction markets were totally wrong, which is why you could make a lot of money betting on the election. Given the social mood and the tight polls, betting against the crowd looked like a really good bet.

With Le Pen, she would have needed more than 30 percent in the first round. She needs a higher core of support because everyone else unites against her. Also, a higher result would have revealed the "shy" Le Pen voter, someone who lies to the pollster about their intentions. Instead, Le Pen underperformed the first round polls. The second round polls are not close and they have been consistently showing a large lead for Macron.

Social mood is in her favor, but victory will not come in 2017.

Frexit or Status Quo? France Heads to the Polls

Below is the CAC 40, the iShares MSCI France (EWQ), and EWQ divided by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Things were worse for France at the last election and voters changed course, choosing Hollande over Sarkozy. If the euro is a better measure of the mood at the moment, then perhaps anything really is possible on Sunday. As for the odds, Le Pen looks expensive at 32 cents (PredictIt). Brexit broke the mold of voters getting cold feet at the last moment. No Western European continental country has broken with the established political order yet.

I watched one of the debates, but otherwise haven't paid close attention to the race. Macron strikes me as the French version of Matteo Renzi, the only attraction he has is his youth. A status-quo agenda in a new suit. Markets are betting he wins. If round two is Le Pen/Melenchon or Fillon/Melenchon, the euro could be in trouble. The risk to financial markets is much larger than from Brexit because the UK was not in the Eurozone.

Good News for Marine Le Pen: Paris Bans Porno Ads

Yves Saint Laurent just called the top in hemlines.

Daily Mail: Paris bans 'sexist' adverts from billboards following outcry over 'porno chic' fashion campaign

Adverts considered 'sexist' have today been banned from billboards across Paris after feminists raised an outcry over so-called 'porno chic'.

The Paris city council voted for the ban today and the city's Mayor Anne Hidalgo said Paris was 'leading the way' in the fight against sexism.

Among those ads which are expected to be banned are those from Yves Saint Laurent's latest campaign, which have been accused of 'degrading' models and even 'inciting rape'.

Hélène Bidard, a French Communist Party councillor and Deputy Mayor, tweeted today: 'Victory in the Paris Council. @JCDecaux_France agrees not to disseminate sexist, discriminatory, LGBT phobic ads in Paris.'

Remove the political overtones and it is a clear sign of negative social mood.

One month ago: Saint Laurent channels ‘80s glam for Paris Fashion Week

Over 100 looks walked the runway: The first half was mostly comprised of body-hugging ruched leather dresses and miniskirts with exaggerated ruffles and up-to-there hemlines. Sexy — and so ’80s.

Vaccarello dialed up the high-wattage glamour even more for the second half — sending a mix of womenswear and menswear in almost entirely black looks covered in sparkles from every, and any, angle. Sparkles were up the shoulder, framing a plunging neckline, smattered all over a loose, long-sleeve T-shirt dress. Even a slouchy knee-high boot received the bedazzled treatment. Translation? Dressing like a disco ball is the look for fall.

Key line:

'We had a similar type of porno chic (in fashion advertising) a decade ago, and here we have it coming back again which isn't acceptable,' Martin added.

When exactly? 2006.

Boston Globe: The pornification of America

What is new and troubling, critics suggest, is that the porn aesthetic has become so pervasive that it now serves as a kind of sensory wallpaper, something that many people don't even notice anymore. The free-speech-versus-censorship debates that invariably surround actual pornography do not burn as hot when the underlying principles of porn are filtered more subtly into the mainstream. And those principles, critics say, often involve reducing women to subjugated sex objects while presenting men in dominant roles.

Braving the inevitable accusations of prudery -- which they reject -- critics such as Paul are sounding the alarm. They say the current hypersexualized climate distorts the attitudes of young people toward sex and relationships. In particular, they contend it has a damaging effect on the self-image of young women and girls, who are confronted with a culture that objectifies them while disguising it as female empowerment.

Twilight of the Neoliberals

ZH: Germans Are Leaving Germany 'In Droves'

More than 1.5 million Germans, many of them highly educated, left Germany during the past decade. — Die Welt.

Germany is facing a spike in migrant crime, including an epidemic of rapes and sexual assaults. Mass migration is also accelerating the Islamization of Germany. Many Germans appear to be losing hope about the future direction of their country.

"We refugees... do not want to live in the same country with you. You can, and I think you should, leave Germany. And please take Saxony and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with you.... Why do you not go to another country? We are sick of you!" — Aras Bacho an 18-year-old Syrian migrant, in Der Freitag, October 2016.

A real estate agent in a town near Lake Balaton, a popular tourist destination in western Hungary, said that 80% of the Germans relocating there cite the migration crisis as the main reason for their desire to leave Germany.

"I believe that Islam does not belong to Germany. I regard it as a foreign entity which has brought the West more problems than benefits. In my opinion, many followers of this religion are rude, demanding and despise Germany." — A German citizen who emigrated from Germany, in an "Open Letter to the German Government."

"I believe that immigration is producing major and irreversible changes in German society. I am angry that this is happening without the direct approval of German citizens. ... I believe that it is a shame that in Germany Jews must again be afraid to be Jews." — A German citizen who emigrated from Germany, in an "Open Letter to the German Government."

"My husband sometimes says he has the feeling that we are now the largest minority with no lobby. For each group there is an institution, a location, a public interest, but for us, a heterosexual married couple with two children, not unemployed, neither handicapped nor Islamic, for people like us there is no longer any interest." — "Anna," in a letter to the Mayor of Munich about her decision to move her family out of the city because migrants were making her life there impossible.

It is amazing how quickly Germany changed, like flipping a switch. Merkel's migrant policy was never going to be positive for Germany, but if it ends up pushing out more native Germans in the process it will rapidly accelerate the collapse of the welfare state. Furthermore, it has rapidly shifted social mood, from one of acceptance of migrants to Germans now believing their own government is their enemy.

It is hard to over emphasize how destructive Merkel has been for Europe. Germany was likely to be the least radical power during the shift towards authoritarian, anti-immigration government in Europe. Now, Germany appears as if it might shift further right than National Front in France. Meanwhile in France, FN is riding the same wave as Mr. Trump in the United States.

FT: How France’s National Front is winning working-class voters

After deindustrialisation came the FN’s victory in 2014, when Hayange became one of 11 towns captured by the far-right party, prefiguring the populist wave that has shaken the continent, notably with Britain’s June vote to leave the EU.

Today Hayange, which in its heyday lured in immigrants from Italy and elsewhere, has become staunchly Eurosceptic.

The FN has built much of its success over the past two years on an effort to gain the support of working class voters. Whether Ms Le Pen can defy the pollsters who predict she will ultimately lose the presidential contest, or at least do better than expected, will largely depend on whether she can mobilise disenchanted blue-collar voters, whose turnout has tended to be low.

“The FN has become the party of the working class,” says Bruno Cautrès, a political sciences researcher at Paris-based Sciences Po Cevipof. “The party offers a double explanation for their malaise: Europe has failed to protect their jobs from globalisation and failed to protect their way of life from Muslim immigrants.”

Bloomberg: Nationalists and Populists Poised to Dominate European Balloting

In the coming 12 months, four of Europe’s five largest economies have votes that will almost certainly mean serious gains for right-wing populists and nationalists. Once seen as fringe groups, France’s National Front, Italy’s Five Star Movement, and the Freedom Party in the Netherlands have attracted legions of followers by tapping discontent over immigration, terrorism, and feeble economic performance. “The Netherlands should again become a country of and for the Dutch people,” says Evert Davelaar, a Freedom Party backer who says immigrants don’t share “Western and Christian values.”

Even Europe’s most powerful politician, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is under assault. The anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has drained support from Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrats in recent state and local elections, capitalizing on discontent over Germany’s refugee crisis. In Austria the far-right Freedom Party has a shot at winning the presidency in balloting set for Dec. 4, after an election in May that the Freedom Party narrowly lost was annulled because of irregularities in vote counting. The populists are deeply skeptical of European integration, and those in France and the Netherlands want to follow Britain’s lead and quit the European Union. “Political risk in Europe is now far more significant than in the United States,” says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays.

Nick Rowe sums up the inherent problem for the neoliberal order in the West. As their economic models ignore debt and thus lead to massive debt crises, the neoliberals also believe in the Blank Slate and treat people as widgets, assuming no change in social, cultural and political institutions from mass migration. As with debt, it leads to a total system collapse.

Importing people is not like importing apples

Worthwhile Canadian Initiative:

Importing people is not like importing apples.

It's not just "labour services" and "consumer demand" that crosses the border; it's people. And there's a lot more to people than just bundles of labour services and consumer demands, where tariffs and transport costs make the only difference to whether they are inside or outside the borders.

"Total Factor Productivity" is not some geological feature like the Canadian shield. There has to be a reason why some countries are rich and other countries are basket cases, and unless you are lucky enough to find yourselves sitting on great reservoirs of oil that someone else will pay you to pump out of the ground, that reason seems to have something to do with social/economic institutions, and social/economic institutions seem to have something to do with people.

If you have a model which treats Total Factor Productivity as exogenous, then yes, if "resources" flow from places with low TFP to places with high TFP, as they will if the invisible hand is allowed to operate, that would be a Good Thing. But you need to stop and ask: "Hang on. I wonder why TFP is higher in some places than in others?" Which should lead you to the next question: "I wonder if TFP really would be exogenous to the sort of policy experiment I'm using my model for?". Which should lead you to the next question: "I wonder if social/economic institutions really would be exogenous to the sort of policy experiment I'm using my model for?"

How exactly will social/economic institutions change when we import people? God only knows. They might change for the better; they might change for the worse. It depends on them; it depends on us. But they almost certainly will change. And if you can't even see that question, and wonder about it, then you really are missing something that even the great unwashed uneducated rabble can see. And the great unwashed uneducated rabble are going to put even less credence on what you intellectual elites are telling them they ought to think.

There will be no moderation. The behavior of the establishment across the West shows it will only increase current policies to punish the unruly electorates, and the electorate will respond by picking ever more radical candidates. The West is about to descend into civil conflict once more.

Majority of Americans Now Oppose All Immigration

Based on socionomics and a reading of the political tea leaves, I predicted Donald Trump would take the opening presented by the immigration issue back in 2014. Now the political elites will watch in horror as Trump goes from success to greater success amid a phase change in public opinion.

Polling data has shown a trend in the direction of immigration restriction for years, but now it is seemingly appearing suddenly because the political establishment was very successful at keeping dissenting voices out of the mainstream. Polls with loaded questions and media blackouts helped keep debate on issues such as deportation out of the conversation. Additionally, instead of tightening immigration policy to match falling social mood and defuse tension, the establishment went full speed in the opposite direction, guaranteeing a massive overreaction when the change happened. They have set up the perfect conditions for "revolutionary" change on the issue.

Breitbart: Poll: 61 Percent Say Immigration ‘Jeopardizes the United States’

The poll, commissioned by A.T. Kearney, a global management consulting firm, found that 61 percent of Americans agreed with the statement, “continued immigration into the country jeopardizes the United States.”

A.T. Kearney’s poll of 2,590 Americans, according to Bloomberg, was conducted last October and November by research company NPD Group and is slated for release later this month.

As Bloomberg detailed, the view that immigration jeopardizes America was pervasive across age groups but highest among baby boomers, 65 percent of whom agreed with the statement. Millennials were the least likely age group to hold that view but still a majority, 55 percent, agreed “continued immigration into the country jeopardizes the United States.”

Bloomberg: Americans Really Don't Like Immigration, New Survey Finds

The A.T. Kearney survey seems to show more negativity toward immigration than other recent surveys, although it's hard to tell because each one uses its own question wording. A Pew Research Center study conducted in August through October found that 53 percent of respondents thought immigration strengthened the U.S. vs. 38 percent who thought it burdened the U.S. In a Gallup Poll in June, 34 percent of respondents favored a decrease in immigration, 25 percent favored an increase, and 40 percent favored keeping it at current levels.

Immigration polls are generally worded to achieve a pro-immigration result, such as asking an open ended question like "Do You Favor Immigration Reform?" where reform could mean anything to the respondent, but is presented in reports as amnesty for illegal aliens. Deeper surveys with more questions almost always found a majority favored some degree of immigration restriction.

At this point, "the establishment" is still making the same mistakes, thinking there is a way to win (preserve mass immigration). There is not yet the recognition that it probably will have to give up a lot on the issue to salvage its agenda in other areas. For example, Trump's biggest threat is not on immigration, but on trade policy. In order to stop Trump and avoid a negative outcome on trade, the establishment should offer even greater immigration restrictions.

Meanwhile, Trump may not be finished tacking towards restriction: Donald Trump Vows to ‘Get Immigration Numbers Under Control’

“Record rates of immigration have produced lower wages and higher unemployment for U.S. workers. Pew polling shows 83 percent of all voters — Democrats, Republicans and Independents — think immigration should be frozen or reduced,” Trump stated in a campaign press release on Monday evening.

The biggest beneficiaries of allowing fewer foreign workers into our country would be minority workers, including all immigrants now living here, who are competing for jobs, benefits and community resources against record waves of foreign workers. Limiting job competition would reopen pathways to middle-class stability and shrink welfare rolls. In addition, it would relieve overcrowding in our schools and hospitals that afflict our poorest communities. Yet, Senators Cruz and Rubio have led the charge for even higher immigration rates — a policy supported by only 7 percent of the Republican electorate. When I am President we will listen to the people — not the special interests — and get immigration numbers under control, as the voters have demanded.

As I said in summer 2014: Immigration Issue Set to Explode in America; Prepare for Political Volatility. The last line:

UKIP was a distant warning shot. The defeat of Eric Cantor was a much closer shot. Few if any politicians have stepped up to advocate an immigration restriction policy. They have nearly all taken the easy road of bashing President Obama for inaction. This leaves an opening for an ambitious politician.

The link goes to Donald Trump.

To this day the pundits are in near unison saying they don't understand what is happening, and most politicians don't get it either, believing it to be some sort of generalized anger. The best they can come up with is a shallow analysis: the public is angry and wants an outsider. The plan to stop Trump seems to be based on the idea that Trump is the problem, rather than the vast gap between what the leaders and the public want. The situation is not confined to the U.S. either, Germany is now at risk of significant political volatility as is France, where there is already open discussion of strategic voting to deny National Front a victory.

Although it isn't stated as such, the plan of the political establishment is the same as the central banks: buy enough time until the recovery comes. Hope is a great thing, but is it not a strategy.

France Imitates Art: Socialists and Centrists Unite to Defeat National Front

In Michael Houellebecq's novel Submission, the socialists ally with the Muslim Brotherhood party to defeat Le Pen and the National Front. It's quite funny, but I'm only about one-third into it, so no review yet. Thus far the Muslim Brotherhood has won the Socialist party over with the demand that it only wants control over education, which will now become Islamic. Non-Islamic education can continue in private schools.

Now life is imitating art as the National Front is defeated at the polls: French far-right fails to win a single region in elections

France's far-right National Front (FN) failed to win a single region in elections Sunday despite record results in the first round, as voters flocked to traditional parties to keep them out of power, according to early estimates.

Now France joins other European nations such as Sweden, where the establishment has fully united against the far right. In Houellebecq's novel, France is eventually destroyed and goes well beyond the hard-right thanks to becoming Islamic.

This One Chart Explains the Next 10 Years of Political Change

Before the chart, a rehash of some ideas discussed here previously.

First, negative social mood makes the public displeased with whichever party is in charge. Where the right rules, left wins and vice versa.

Second, if the current decline in social mood is an order of magnitude larger, than political change could be an order of magnitude larger as well. The left controls every developed country in the world, has a near lock on the media and universities. A recent outlier being Hungary, where the right-wing government made a sweep through the judiciary and the media.

Third, the ruling parties are moving in the opposite direction, pushing more extreme versions of peak mood policies. The key issue remains immigration/nationalism. The public turned against immigration more than a decade ago and there was political backlash in some countries, with anti-immigrant parties emerging and rising in the polls. Anti-euro and anti-EU parties emerged in Europe as well. The media push a pro-immigration narrative and with the migrant crisis, the political establishment did as well. The public also began turning against the euro and EU, and the ruling classes pushed ever harder, overturning democratic elections in several countries.

Fourth, the new axis of political debate is identity and community.

Fifth, in addition to breaking in the opposite direction from the public, the main opposition parties have revealed there is only one relatively unified political establishment. As Orwell put it, there is an Inner Party and an Outer Party. The Outer Parties are taking off their mask and showing themselves to be Inner Party too. Sweden Democrats were excluded from the government despite being the largest party. In the U.S., the term cuckservative has arisen to describe conservatives who agree with the left on the key issues of identity and community. There are rumors the GOP establishment prefers Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump. An alliance against the National Front is no longer a rumor or subject of a book like Submission; it is being openly discussed in France.

I've said that whoever picks up the immigration issue will run to victory because they will have the public support and zero political opposition. In fact, the establishment will fight them so hard that they will create a binary political situation. Instead of shifting to the right to maintain power (the Pareto optimal, robust position) the ruling class is moving into a fragile position that increases the likelihood and size of potential losses. Sweden Democrats are iced out of government, a big loss for them in terms of political power, but if the people want to throw out the government, now they have one option only: Sweden Democrats or perhaps a still non-existent far right party. If the GOP establishment does support Hillary Clinton, the argument that America has only one political party will be an observable fact. In France, if the left and right team up to defeat the National Front, voters will have the same choice going forward.

The political opposition is anti-fragile. If there is a major terror attack, if there is a major economic dislocation, if there is an unpopular war, then the opposition can go from obscurity to total political power in one election cycle. Donald Trump stated this inarticulately yesterday.

Trump: 'My numbers go way up' after tragedies

"I'm gonna get people jobs and I'm going to protect people. And that's why whenever there's a tragedy, everything goes up, my numbers go way up because we have no strength in this country, we have weak, sad politicians," the billionaire businessman told the network.

Trumps's sin was to publicly state an unspoken truth. When things go badly, people turn to the opposition. As the opposition narrows, people will turn to whatever option they have.

To summarize. The electorate increasingly wants a major change and it may desire a multi-generational political realignment. The ruling class responds by circling the wagons. This keeps outsiders from gaining political power, but by doing so, it increases the need/desire to throw out the entire political class.

Now, this reality has come to Germany. This chart below shows where voters place the various political parties on the political spectrum. Notice the Free Democrats and Merkel's CDU drift so far to the left that they are now considered left-wing parties.

Source: AfD rückt nach rechts, CDU nach links

The CSU has probably drifted left due to association with CDU, but as a regional party it wouldn't have national reach as a separate party. If voters want to make a change, they have to push farther to the right. The National Democratic Party is now closer to power and will only rise in stature if current events and social mood remain on their present course. Additionally, Hungary and Poland have taken hard right turns and Eastern European nations defend their new found nations sovereignty with more intensity that Western Europe. Common wisdom is that Germany will not move hard right like France because of WWII, but in fact, due to reuniting with East Germany, the nation is more likely to move to the right.

Pro-EU Politicians Dismantle EU and Pave the Way for Fascism

For the past several years, I have been expecting a breakup in the European Union. It appeared the catalyst would be rising nationalism at the national level, which pan-European officials constantly fought. Instead of embracing the shift in mood and pursing a different political path (as a flexible political system would), EU officials revealed their ideological and class preferences. Nationalist political parties were both rising in public favor and on a collision course with the EU. To predict a poor outcome for the EU was not a stretch.

As far back as 2012, France of all countries was threatening to pull out of the Schengen Agreement if external border controls were not tightened. Tightening external borders would be a way to allow nationalist sentiment to express itself through a pan-European outlet. Instead, the opposite happened. In 2015, the German government nuked Schengen and has set off the unraveling of the EU project. The German government itself has been forced to put up border controls due to its own disastrous policy on migrants.

Bavarian minister says German border controls could last for weeks

"We need to have a stricter control here in general, because we have established in the past few days that there are many en route here that are not really refugees," Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann told radio station Bayern 2.

...A spokesman for German police on the border with Austria said they had arrested around 30 smugglers and about 90 migrants since the controls had been introduced.

Meanwhile, train lines between Austria and Germany reopened on Monday morning apart from one line to Munich, which was still closed because of people on the track, a spokeswoman for Austrian rail company OeBB said.

Hungary calls in the Army: Soldiers given shock powers to use rubber bullets on migrants

The 3,800 troops descended on Hungary's border with Serbia this morning to provide live border guards.

Prisonsers have been drafted in to build 10km of fencing every day.

Tough new powers have been issued by the Hungarian government to deal with the growing migrant crisis amid fears the country could be hit by terror attacks linked to the influx of refugees.

...That will assist the police who will also be given new rights to fight people smugglers including entering homes without official authority and collecting information from abroad.

This is only the beginning and Hungary has already given police the power to enter homes without authority. In Hungary, Orban is a centrist politician, too far to the right for the likes of the left-wing European establishment, but far from the far right Jobbik party. If the migrant flows continue and the governments of Europe continue to act against the interests of the public, eventually the extreme right will return to power, their path smoothed and cleared by far left politicians trying to commit national suicide.

Europe Refugee Crisis: Eastern Countries' Opposition To Migrants Highlights Cultural Split In Bloc

While rallies welcoming refugees took place in Western Europe, demonstrations opposing their presence took place in some Eastern European cities. About 5,000 people chanting anti-Islamic slogans marched in the Polish capital Warsaw, according to the BBC, while in Prague, about 800 protesters carried banners reading "I do not want refugees and Islam in Czech Republic" and "Protect the borders."

...Eastern European countries, unlike their western counterparts, are largely ethnically and religiously homogenous, and have little experience in integrating migrants from other cultural and ethnic backgrounds into their societies. Poland, for example, is 98 percent white and 94 percent Catholic.

“The countries that have very little diversity are some of the most virulently against refugees,” said Andrew Stroehlein, European media director for Human Rights Watch, told the New York Times.

Except France and Germany have no experience. France and Germany have not integrated Muslim immigrants for decades and when the numbers are large enough, even the United States and United Kingdom fail at assimilation.

German police suspect arson attack on refugee center

A gym intended as an emergency shelter for refugees burned to the ground outside Berlin early Tuesday, police said.

Brandenburg state police said the fire in Nauen — about 9 miles west of Germany's capital — was probably deliberately started.

Breakdown of Law and Order in Europe

Europe is coming apart, as nations cannot control their borders and point fingers at each other for a migrant crisis that exists solely because they refuse to defend their borders. French protests have added to the chaos and turned Calais into a warzone of lawlessness.

Express: Calais goes UP IN FLAMES: Migrants fight to get into UK as ferry workers block harbour

“For lorry drivers trying to get to the UK it’s like a warzone. You’ve got people who have made in many cases very long and dangerous journeys to try to get to the UK who will stop at nothing to try to get on board.

“We recognise it’s a humanitarian crisis and a complex global situation and that these are human beings, but drivers’ lives are being put at risk by people who are so desperate they have no concern with their own safety and welfare and probably even less for the safety and welfare of the drivers.

“We are very, very concerned about the safety of our drivers and we fear it’s only a matter of time before someone is seriously injured or killed.”

Migrants have already made it to Europe, why do they keep going to the UK? They aren't refugees, since refugees stop once they get across the first safe border.

Guardian: The Calais migrant problem: a continual drip of poison in Anglo-French relations

French public opinion is deeply sensitive to the impact on Calais and the recent migrant deaths. No one knows this better than the Socialist interior minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, who was MP for Cherbourg, which has its own migrant problems along the coast. With the far-right Front National’s Marine Le Pen running in regional elections in the newly expanded Calais region this winter, the Calais question is likely to dominate local French politics all year.

The odds of the EU political project surviving are shrinking. If the EU does survive, it might be because UKIP, National Front, AfD, Law and Justice, Sweden Democrats, Northern League, Finns, Fidesz, et al are the majority parties.

Li Keqiang Emphasizes Nuclear Power

Chinese premier Li commits to 2030 CO2 peaking goal

In remarks reported on a government website, Li Keqiang said China would peak emissions by 2030 and “strive” to do this earlier.

China would increase energy saving measures and programmes to cut the level of CO2 per unit of GDP, he said.

Boosting the share of renewables in the national energy mix and increasing forest cover were also priorities, Li added.

On Monday, he said the country would develop large-scale nuclear projects and partner with France to export nuclear power.

iFeng: 李克强：未来国内还要大规模发展核电

Weekend Reading: Pettis on the French Indemnity

If I can sum this up into one sentence, it is that massive transfers of wealth from Country A to Country B leads to big problems for Country B.

Within a few years of the beginning of the crisis attitudes towards the French indemnity had shifted dramatically, with economists and politicians throughout Germany and the world blaming it for the country’s economic collapse. In fact so badly was Germany affected by the indemnity inflows that it was widely believed at the time, especially in France, that Berlin was seriously contemplating their full return. The great beneficiary of French “largesse” turned out not to have benefitted any more than Spain had benefitted from German largesse 135 years later.

Pettis:Syriza and the French indemnity of 1871-73

FTAlphaville puts some numbers and charts into it here: Michael Pettis explains the euro crisis (and a lot of other things, too)