Depression or a Rally?

ZH: French, German Leaders Warn Populations "Prepare For Total Cut-Off Of Russian Gas" As Social Unrest Looms

Germany too is fearing the worst, as its main conduit for Russian natural gas, Nord Stream 1, has long been scheduled to go down for 10-day maintenance starting Monday. But the persisting fear is that Moscow won't bring it back online, for the purpose of squeezing the German economy further as punishment for its Ukraine stance, forcing Berlin into emergency rationing.

Germany's population of some 80-million is reliant on Russia for over one-third of total gas supplies, and there's no immediate alternative. Should Moscow use "routine" maintenance as an excuse to keep supplies halted, some German publications are even predicting social unrest as the squeeze gets put on the working class population in particular.

Vertical moves up and down in energy prices occurs because of marginal changes in supply and demand. Oil has traded above $130 per barrel twice in the past 25 years and also below $10 twice. That was in the context of a functioning global markets.

VD: A Dire Situation

Three years ago, a megawatt hour of gas cost EUR 7. The price is now EUR 175, and is expected to rise to at least 250.

I'm at a loss for words. The Baizuo of Western Europe, at the behest of Baizuo in Washington, DC, are taking steps that could result in significant deaths of their own people, for no clear gain. There is not a kinetic, existential war between the West and Russia at the moment. Energy and materials aren't being funneled into armament factories for the war, fuel for jets, tanks and missiles. They're destroying their ability to resist Russia with these shutdowns. It looks like they're surrendering rather than fighting.

It makes sense if they are Greens though. The destruction of the West, industry and capitalism was always an aim of the radical elements. It makes sense if the governments are at war with their own people. It makes sense if depression and borderline starvation is a preferred solution to what otherwise might be a fierce domestic resistance to the "Great Reset." It makes sense that truckers and farmers, who could form the core infrastructure of serious domestic resistance movements, would be targeted first. It makes sense that Russia would "cooperate" in destroying the West and sinking into a century or more of oblivion.

At any other time I'd say, "this won't happen." They'll come to their senses, this is more rhetoric than policy. Yet at every step this year, that was the wrong interpretation. They've taken that step and then proposed an even more destructive step that was also followed through with. 

The decision tree from here is as bifurcated as can be. On one path, Europe takes a step that creates irreversible damage. It could be deaths in winter, a depression unlike anything since the 1930s or Weimar Germany, and/or a revolt that becomes violent against the political/media class. A revolt like what was seen in Sri Lanka. On the other path, Europe blinks and decides against collapsing itself on purpose, for no good purpose. Markets and economies that are braced for hell breathe a sign of relief.

One possible sign of relief: Canada to return repaired Russian pipeline part to Germany

Canada has announced it will return to Germany a repaired turbine of the Russian Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is a core source of the gas supply to Germany.

...Ukraine had urged Canada not to return the repaired part, saying it would undermine sanctions against Russia.

...But when announcing its decision on Saturday, Canada's Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said it was taken to "support Europe's ability to access reliable and affordable energy as they continue to transition away from Russian oil and gas."

...The minister particularly cited concern for the German economy as well as German citizens, saying they could be left unable to heat their homes during winter.