The Tech-Oil/Bond Seesaw

Although tech is rising, bonds are rising and oil is falling, I noticed that most days I'm either losing money on the tech positions while gaining on oil and bonds, or vice versa. This morning is one of those days, with bonds up and oil down, and maybe an unsurprising pullback in stocks, or not. Maybe today will break the pattern. NQ is down 0.09 percent as I'm typing.

The charts aren't terribly interesting at this point. The bases are complete. The two most important breaks for a stock market rally will be ZB completing the inverse H&S and CL descending into the $80s. The only thing I'm inclined to do here is manage my USO put position. I actively trade crude because it is volatile, and will likely close the position if CL clears $99 again. Otherwise, I'm going to focused on looking for setups that could profit on the next leg of the bull rally.

Comments on a few other charts.

I think BTC is more important in the grand scheme of things, but right now Ethreum is leading. If this can crack the $1700 area that is a massive wall of resistance, it will suprise even many bears who like me, expected a rally. It won't suprise me because I understand what crack-addled specualtion can do to asset prices, and how junkies cannot quit. I also won't be shocked if the rally dies there and signals this bull run could terminate much earlier than I anticipate.

I'm not in biotech at the moment. I want to show a couple of lines here to give my thinking. The line on IBB isn't clean, but it illustrates how prior rallies all fizzled after moving a little above this trendline. Right now, it looks like IBB and, much more cleanly XBI, could be ready to push off this line. Conversely, breaking lower would also be a sign the bear market rally could be terminating.

A 1 percent gain in XLC will complete the small base that points to potentially 10 percent more upside.