A Whole Lot of Work for Nothing

Very frustrating days in the markets. I did very well with trades during the rally, gave back some. Since then seesaw up and down days. Until I see the long-side totally wrecked, I will keep sniffing out long plays.

SMH is flirting with going green on a horrible day. Looks like a high probability winner if the market pops.

IBB broke a similar horizontal as the one that XBI is holding below. I view XBI as the leader. I don't like this trade as much as in June because it has much more potential downside if the market sinks, but the relative strength could unleash a still more powerful rally.      
I'm still positioned long on TLT. Added a little near the lows today.

XLC is the most depressed piece of trash that I'm willing to take a flyer on. August $60 calls look good if can get in cheap. They remain horribly illiquid. Direct play via NFLX and META more expensive, but very liquid.

On the downside, oil and related stocks remain my favorite, but as I discussed earlier today, the correlation between Nasdaq and oil gives me pause. The stock market needs something to send oil plummeting by itself, like peace in Ukraine, and that seems impossible right now. With oil following Nasdaq or vice versa, I expect a rally in stocks could pull oil higher. Perhaops soaring TLT could split the difference by signaling both a recession threat to hurt oil and the need for the Fed to slow its hiking speed to benefit stocks.