2022-07-31

How Much Rally is Left: Bull Patterns Fail in Bear Markets

There are some chart patters such as the double bottom in biotech, with a higher second low, that are very bullish looking. Biotech rallied for almost 4 months, from March to July 2008. It has rallied for about 6 weeks now. Percentage-wise, it is not far off the move in 2008.

In bull markets, bear patterns reliably fail. In bear markets, bull patterns fail. Asuming this is a bear market, there is probably not much upside left. My head tells me the market could start falling almost immediately because I expect a pullback here, and that could in hindsight be the start of a larger move to new lows. My gut says that bears are coming out again and maybe that's a sign there's one last squeeze left before the reversal. Is started taking profits last week and looking to position for the next bear move.

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