2022-07-11

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Has Annualized Inflation Down to 5.3pc in July

July's forecast CPI (due in August) annualizes to 5.3 percent. Sink oil more and the CPI can drop even more. The only thing propping up oil at this point is the foreign policy of USG. The Fed is fighting USG's foreign policy more than it is fighting inflation at this point. I don't argue for lower rates, but it would make a great deal of sense to hike more slowly if the risk is extreme demand destruction via a combination of tight monetary conditions and high oil prices acting as an additional tax on the economy.

3 comments:

  1. FWIW, since you look into very early stage miners, maybe this will interest you: https://petergrandich.com/2022/07/07/mr-lonely-buy-signal

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    1. I should’ve looked for one of your earlier miner posts and appended to that, rather than post it here in an unrelated thread. But, do you get notified of comments in older threads?

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    2. Anything in the past 30 days or so will trigger a notification. Can't argue with him short-term, I expect a bounce. After that...we'll see. Should be a strong bounce if the Fed pivots, and then trap everyone come September.

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