Powell Delivers "No Recession" Narrative

What more needs to be said than: unemployment is a lagging indicator, at best a coincident indicator of the economy? Initial claims for unemployment turned higher in April, the 4-week average turned higher in June. Assuming the Fed knows this fact, the post-FOMC rally makes sense. Powell is putting out a political narrative showing he's in step with the federal government.

Are bonds basing or topping? I closed out my bond position before the FOMC meeting, then put half back on.

Crude oil will try for the $99 level again.

NQ is 12 percent away from a 25 percent rally. Not sure it gets all the way, but it isn't that far off. This rally was disbelieved on the way up, then hated. Soon it will be accepted by bulls and bears, and then the next leg down can commence.

I don't think RTY will rise into October, but pricewise that blue line is only about 6 percent away in early August...