2022-07-14

What Should the Federal Reserve Do?

Surprise the market with a 50 bps hike,m citing economy weakness. No dovish rhetoric,no pivot, merely watching to see if the economy takes inflation down on its own. This will trigger a squeeze that will temporarily push up inflation a bit. Powell uses Jackson Hole to jawbone it down. Then raise anotehr 50 bps or 75 bps if necessary in September. Stocks will be about where they are now.

If you're going to manipulate markets, might as well manipulate them all the way. Stress relieving rallies are necessary if they have in their mind to "go all the way" and lift the Fed funds rate above the CPI if necessary. The current pace is pointing to a crash that will force the Fed to choose destructive QE again or allowing something like a 2008 market crash to proceed without any help.

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