Something to Keep an Eye On: Shanghai Gold Premium

China is still limiting gold imports as part of strict capital controls.

Gold Rush! The Aunties Are Buying the Sale

Chinese investors are hedging their investments with gold thanks to the holiday smash in prices this week. Investment consultants are also pushing the metal as an alternative/hedge to sky high real real estate.

Sina: 房子难买 但黄金火了 中国大妈开抢！
Netease: 金价连日暴跌 专家：投资黄金已迎来买点

History and Future of Gold In China

Here are snips from a long piece on gold's role, or lack of one, over the past 60 years.

The KMT's plan to transport central bank gold to Taiwan was accidentally discovered by Western media and immediately reported. The widespread "gold run" on banks in Shanghai that ensued in the weeks afterward dealt a death blow to the regime's recently issued jinyuanquan, which had already been teetering on the brink of collapse. This also brought an end to the monetary system that the ROC government had been trying hard over the previous 10 months to build based on jinyuanquan, which was supposed to be strictly pegged to gold.

Many Chinese people at the time were either forced to exchange their foreign exchange and gold for jinyuanquan or did so willingly out of faith in the ROC government. The government, however, issued the currency at will and caused severe inflation. This cost it all the trust it might have had in the part of the country it still controlled, and was a major reason behind the KMT debacle that ensued. That was a lesson that its rival, the Communist Party, has carefully taken to heart.

On the very day that the first shipment of gold left for Taiwan, the party founded the People's Bank of China in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province. This marked the birth of the current central bank and the yuan as its statutory legal tender.

The CCP allowed other currencies at first, but gradually replaced them with the yuan:

Things began to change as communist troops started prevailing in larger parts of the country. Inflation began to affect some liberated zones, especially coastal Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, where a more developed commercial sector attracted more material goods than anywhere else. Once in Shanghai, a severe crisis involving silver dollars, cotton yarn and grain erupted, a problem the authorities barely managed to control. The crisis was a battle over reserves of important materials fought between the new administration's currency – the yuan – and the old regime's payment instruments.

In 1950, the People's Bank of China began exchanging all existing dongbeibi – a currency used in the northeastern part of the country – for the yuan. It had allowed dongbeibi to exist in the year after the new government was established because it wanted the northeast to be economically independent and strong enough to serve as a supplier of materials. The strength of the dongbeibi lay in the economic foundation the Japanese had established during their occupation. It was also a kind of "goods-backed currency," as its value depended on the trade of grain and meat to the Soviets in exchange for military materiel.

Taking dongbeibi out of circulation signaled that the party was going to expand the scope of the yuan to the entire nation. By this time the economic and financial systems established by the various regimes that had controlled the nation since the 1911 Revolution were all gone. With the exception of Tibet, which kept its own currency under the Seventeen Point Agreement for the Peaceful Liberation of Tibet, the yuan was made the only legal currency in all of China.

Although gold plays no role in the value of the yuan, maybe it should:

The price of gold started plummeting in early 2013 as the U.S. economy became stronger and the market expected the Federal Reserve to stop its policy of so-called quantitative easing. Meanwhile, China's demand for gold soared. In the first half of 2014, imports skyrocketed, prompting speculation that the central bank was secretly beefing up its gold reserve.

Buying more gold seems to be a good choice for both the government and individual investors, given the new domestic and international circumstances. The yuan has been relatively stable throughout the most troubled times of the financial crisis, but its peg to the U.S. dollar means it will always fluctuate in sync with the latter, depending on the Fed's moves.

That is why it is extremely important that we have an "anchor" ourselves.

Gold is a currency that supersedes sovereignty issues, is politically neutral, and is not easily manipulated by monetary policy. Gold may not be able to compete with the currencies of the world's major powers, but it can certainly be used as an anchor.

Hedge fund manager Li Sheng concludes with:

In a 1966 essay, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that gold is "a protector of property rights." This is true, but only in times of peace and in an open environment. The old wisdom of hoarding gold in troubled times is applicable only to eras of strife and war. In China in the 1960s, in Nazi-controlled Europe and in the Soviet Union under Stalin, gold could not buy one food, let alone protect property.

So instead of trying to peg the yuan somehow to gold to increase its credibility internationally, the government might as well work to establish rule of law and create a system where private property ownership is respected and the public believes in the strength of the monetary system. Confidence is more important than gold.

But that does not mean the yuan system does not need gold. It can be an anchor that stabilizes the yuan and increases people's confidence in it. It can also serve as a check to the power of any one major currency.

Caixin: Yuan and Gold: Old Enemies Should Finally Become Friends
Caixin: 人民币与黄金：荏苒一甲子、干戈化玉帛

China Launches the International Gold Board

International board opened today with a price of ￥245.28 per gram.

Videos below are in Chinese.

The report below is about the god board as part of the internationalization of the renminbi. International traders do not need to change currency in order to trade on the exchange. Around 1:50, a woman from the Shanghai Institute of International of Finance Center says the new board will allow China to increase its influence and slowly increase its say in the market.



More discussion here.

Chinese Aunties Lose ￥26 Billion Trading the April 2013 Drop in Gold, Did They Learn Any Lessons?

If they hang on long enough they'll do alright.

抄底黄金一年亏260亿 中国大妈得到什么教训

Just past the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, for the purchase of a large gold Chinese aunt who is not better. In the last week of May, the price of gold in a row below the 1270,1260 and $ 1,250 mark, the last trading day of May, in New York gold futures prices closed at $ 1,246 an ounce, a record low in February to come. In just the past five months, the New York spot gold price of gold tumbled 3.8 percent, the biggest monthly decline this year to refresh the past. The domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold futures, spot prices have also hit a new low since mid-February.

Fell to four-month low international price of gold, so that last crazy aunt who purchased gold in China once again in trouble. 2013 gold prices have been diving all year, the annual decline of nearly 28 percent, the highest in 1981, the biggest annual decline, the lowest reach $ 1,321 / oz 27-month low. Then "Chinese Mother" crazy buying, "hunters" golden War fame. However, a year later, the price of gold did not like "Aunt" will continue to rise after the expected fall in. Aunt were all stuck.

According to the China Gold Association data show that in April 2013 the gold rush tide outbreak, prompting China in the second quarter of the year aunt who consumed 385.82 tons of gold bullion in the first half of consumption is a substantial increase of 86.5% to the price of gold for the Beijing 1000 gold cases, thousands of gold a year fell 69 yuan per gram, gold Chinese aunt had purchased, and now the cumulative loss of about 26 billion yuan.

Gold continued to fall seriously undermined confidence in the gold market, but also allow people to "Chinese Mother" can mitigate this increased how many doubts. Gold fell from this round of market analysis, as the U.S. stock market performance in a relatively good period of time, the gold market is bound to give an enormous external pressure, and this pressure from the back of the stock market, or to take away a lot of speculative capital market , which has gold hedging, have a relatively strong pull. In India, its domestic market in recent weeks, the price of gold fell premium, because the market expects the new government to ease import restrictions on gold. In addition, U.S. Mint data showed that sales in May compared with April U.S. gold declined. In the futures market, hedge fund bullish bets on gold then fell again, down nearly four months to the lowest level.

From the current situation, the world price of gold is still a downward trend of the stock market, the price of gold at the bottom where? From the analysis of industry professionals, there is no authoritative judgment, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao believes that gold will fall 1229, and even further down to 1214. As such judgments, gold prices continue downward trend is probably not happen in a short time the nature of change.

"Chinese Mother" is neither an economist, nor to see the Wall Street predators positions, they just want the money in the bank may shrink because of inflation, resulting in a kind of anxiety and panic, and in their traditional The concept, the gold should be the most effective means of preservation, and thus instinctively looking into this "safe haven." However, in the current environment of financial globalization, the traditional concept clearly outdated, "Chinese Mother" I do not know the depth of stepping into a high risk investment into gold, give them the impact and the loss is unprecedented.

In fact, the "Chinese Mother" are mostly buying gold jewelry, realized losses of about 80 yuan per gram, in order to carry out the transaction must also be purchased at the price of gold that day and realized the same situation. Therefore, according to the current price of gold jewelry sales price spreads and recovery, gold jewelry price of at least 380 yuan / gram or more, "Chinese Mother" was expected to get out of trouble. It seems that, at least in the short term, "Chinese Mother" is the sort of relief hopeless. This should serve as a case people invest - do not rely on "assumptions" to invest, nor should it take chances to invest. But to fully understand the risks of investment, rational analysis done after the shot.

PBOC Disperses Its Forex Risk With Gold Purchases

More talk of diversifying reserves by insiders and industry experts.

黄金连续走低 中国央行或增持分散外储风险

Along with Goldman Sachs as the representative of institutional investors once again sing the empty gold, gold prices plummeted again.

April 15, gold plunged to crash ushered in the anniversary. Because the April 15, 2013, the international price of gold in a single day drop of 9.13 percent to the highest in nearly 30 years, the largest single-day decline.

With the continuous decline in the price of gold in recent months, drew outside of China's central bank holdings of gold reserves conjecture. Recently, some foreign media reported that China has begun to allow direct import of gold by Beijing crossings. Previously, the market forecast China's central bank will increase its gold reserves, may also be issued an official statement this year. However, as of press time reporter, the central bank did not make a statement on this.

A central bank insider told the "China Business" reporter: "China is a big country, the central bank increasing gold holdings is a normal phenomenon, on reason is that they don't want to put all their eggs in one basket, but another is is the need to disperse its Forex risk. An industry insider agrees with this view, if the central bank increases holdings of gold reserves, it can help to optimize the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves and disperse risk.

Central bank holdings of gold or

It is said that China has begun to allow imports of gold by Beijing, but at the moment is not particularly large number of imports. In the industry view, if the import channels open Beijing, will help China with a low-key way to improve the official reserves, but also help promote China to further purchases of gold from the international market, but also to broaden the investment channels for the people.

"With the continuous improvement of comprehensive national credit, making the currency banknotes and metal can with monetary value, which is normal trading gold, so even if the central bank holdings of gold is a normal phenomenon." Above the central bank insiders told reporters analysts said.

Reporters noted that Chinese gold demand is relatively strong in recent years, especially in China's demand for physical gold soared. Only in April 2013 outbreak prompted China to grab gold wave on consumption of 706.36 tons of gold. We can say that China's Aunt promote Chinese demand for physical gold.

There are publicly available data, in 2013 in Hong Kong to the mainland for a total of up to $ 53 billion in gold. January this year, China's gold imports from Hong Kong amounted to 83.6 tons, compared to January 2013 imported 19.6 tons, an increase of 326%. And last year, China's gold imports surged 28%, which led to market speculation.

World Gold Council believes that the People's Bank of China want to choose investment products outside the U.S. Treasury, and therefore may be increasing their gold reserves. Although no official statement confirmed, but the industry respondents believe that, compared with developed countries, China's official gold reserves is low.

Meng Yu, general manager of Jinpeng Futures on gold has studied the country, told reporters that the Chinese government is still low compared with developed countries on the gold reserves. In his view, gold is a scarce resource, but also the strategic resource. China's official holdings of gold, if appropriate, in favor of economic development.

CITIC Construction Investment Research topics when the group leader Xiamin Ren told reporters concur, "the central bank holdings when appropriate low gold prices, you can optimize the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves, dollar hedge downside risk."

Although the structure of China's foreign reserves had not been made clear announcement, but industry estimates, the foreign exchange reserves mainly in U.S. dollars configuration, dollar assets may account for about 60% to 70%.

"This is mainly from a trade point of view, many of the world's resources are priced priced in U.S. dollars, mostly trade but also in U.S. dollars, thus reducing the exchange rate risk." Xiamin Ren told reporters analysts said.

However, the official also has its own considerations. For China's foreign exchange reserves in the past why not a lot of gold holdings to diversify risk, the central bank had a senior person, in March last year to respond to media reports, because the gold market is very small, risk diversification up only 1% to 2%, plus a large number of official gold holdings will push gold higher, so people into trouble, whether it was a difficult decision holdings of gold problem.

Scattered outside the reserve risk

It seems that the industry respondents, central banks in the gold reserves are configured practice. China's central bank holdings of gold reserves if and when appropriate, help to optimize the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves, against the risk of foreign exchange reserves.

Reporters noted that in recent years, most countries are looking to diversify foreign exchange reserves of central banks in the past few years have holdings of gold. According to data provided by the IMF, central banks buy gold in November 2012 1,020,000,000 ounces, compared to November 2011 increased by 1.4%. In February 2014, Russia's official gold reserves from 1,034.7 tons in January increased to 1,041.9 tons, overtaking Switzerland was promoted to the world's sixth largest gold reserves of the country.

In fact, Russia has been increasing in recent years, gold reserves, particularly in recent months, the Russian central bank gold holdings is to increase the intensity. "This is mainly to avoid the impact of the U.S. dollar and the euro." Xiamin Ren analysis. Some analysts said, because the Ukraine, Russia's central bank holdings of gold to reduce the impact of U.S. financial sanctions that may arise on the Russian economy.

However, according to the World Gold Council data show that China's gold reserves data change little. Since April 2009 released 454 tons of gold holdings since China holds a total official gold reserves have remained at 1,054.1 tons.

And a recent global central bank gold reserves data domestic media obtained from the World Gold Council also showed that there is statistical in 100 countries worldwide, regional or official organizations, the total gold reserves of 31,829 tons. Before five ranked reserves are the United States, Germany, IMF, Italy and France, China ranked sixth, followed by Russia, Switzerland, Japan, the Netherlands. "Central banks of different preferences for gold, there are differences on the configuration." Xiamin Ren told reporters.

However, Yu Meng told reporters the country, "resources are not only gold, as well as crude oil, copper and other commodities are the future of China's economic development needs in these low commodity prices may be appropriate to buy some of the strategic reserve."

Reporters noted that the recent weakness in the gold price, gold ETF holdings in the doldrums, the continuous reduction of the current gold ETF holdings fourth week. And because the price of gold fell nearly 30 percent last year, out of which a large number of gold ETF is considered to be one of the reasons behind it. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, as the representative of institutional investors began to sing again "short gold."

Respondents believe that the short-term decline mainly to alleviate the problem in Ukraine and the United States economic data make gold price pressure is expected in the short-term gold price of U.S. $ 1275 to 1300 shock is a high probability event.

"Short-term ups and downs are still a large part of the normal fluctuation." Yu Meng country that, from U.S. monetary policy and the gold supply and demand, the future price trend is still unclear.

2014 Gold Investment Guide from Phoenix New Media

Translated by Google. Not new for gold investors because it's mainly a summary of foreign sources.

2014 Gold Investment Guide

2014黄金投资指南

The Gold Smash is the New Opium War

Liu Jun Luo is in form:

The gold smash is designed to wipe out the people with high cost basis in gold. But if gold plunges 10% in a night, why was the Dollar Index so weak, and the renminbi hit a new high?

This is WWII strategy. First, use tanks and artillery to blast a hole in the lines, and then send in the army to rapidly and violently penetrate the lines. Well, in the financial war, gold is the tanks and artillery, the dollar index is the army. The Americans and Chinese "Yeltsins" are working together to raise the renminbi exchange rate and pull in more people to buy the dips. Today is the "gold gap" campaign, but by the end of April or in early May, this will shift to the "dollar index army" and it will be rapid and violent.

Military war and financial war use different results to reach the same outcome.

黄金大抄底与“新鸦片战争”

In case you missed it, the golden dowries of Fujian

I didn't blog about this because I thought it'd get more coverage around the web, but I haven't seen many reports, so here it is: Fujian billionaire marries off daughter with gold-laden dowry

Wu Duanbiao, chairman of ceramics firm Fujian Wanli Group, bestowed more than a billion yuan (HK$1.2 billion) as dowry for his daughter’s marriage on Sunday, according to media reports.

The wedding took place in Cizao town, Jinjiang county, in eastern China's Fujian province.

Pictures of the wedding were posted on the internet on Sunday, showing a dowry that included four boxes of gold jewellery, a bankbook with deposits worth 20 million yuan and Wanli stock worth 5 million yuan.

There was a previous huge dowry at the beginning of December in the same city, but only 200 million yuan. 福建老板嫁女陪嫁妆２亿元

Chinese customer buys 95-kilo gold bar for 35,000,000 yuan

A Chinese customer at Caibai bought a 95-kilo bar. He frequently buys and sells gold, this time making a huge purchase due to QE3. He sees gold breaking $1800 an ounce. In USD, his purchase is worth more than $5 million. Were gold to rally $50, this customer would stand to gain about $150,000 or close to ￥1 million。

金价再创新高 投资客买95公斤金条价值3500万元

Liu Jun Luo predicts 40% devaluation of renminbi in 2013

Liu Junluo's prediction of a crash in the gold market didn't come to pass, but he's sticking to that call. In general, he sees Romney winning and strengthening the U.S. economy, leading to an increase in real estate and assets prices, pulling in foreign capital and raising the value of the U.S. dollar—a net deflationary force on the global economy that will attract capital specifically from China.
罗姆尼大有希望啊！

我预计最迟2013年第三季度人民币贬值，如果，中国央行确实是拼命推移到那个时间段，人民币贬值那就应该是一次性贬值不低于40%。人民币如果发生一次性贬值，国内所有期货都可能在一次性贬值后的2~3月时间全部关闭。

He notes earlier in the piece that a lot of Chinese gold was purchased at high prices and he's specifically looking at the futures market. He obviously recommends investors hold U.S. dollars, but if they are in gold they will not see the renminbi price collapse in the end.

I don't agree with his economic reasoning, but his posts are widely read in the blogosphere and from this post answering reader questions and also the comments on posts, it's clear that the theme of buying U.S. dollars for investment is spreading. The seeds of a large renminbi devaluation have been sown in China, with the U.S. dollar seen as the most profitable way to protect against it.

The Golden Dilemma

Here's the link to a paper on gold. Commentary to follow.
The Golden Dilemma

Gold objects have existed for thousands of years but gold has only been an actively traded object since 1975. Gold has often been described as an inflation hedge. If gold is an inflation hedge then on average its real return should be zero. Yet over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year investment horizons the variation in the nominal and real returns of gold has not been driven by realized inflation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average. As a result investors in gold face a daunting dilemma: 1) seek inflation protection by paying a high real gold price that almost guarantees a decline in future purchasing power or 2) avoid gold and run the risk of a decline in future purchasing power if inflation surges. Given this situation is it time to explore “this time is different” rationalizations? We show that new mined supply is surprisingly unresponsive to prices. In addition, authoritative estimates suggest that about three quarters of the achievable world supply of gold has already been mined. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today’s elevated levels.

Wuhan shopping center builds $10 million, 200kg gold brick road

A mall in Wuhan, Hubei, has laid a path consisting of 200 1-kilogram bricks, a veritable gold brick road. It is about 7 meters (more than 20 feet) long. It's a very inefficient way to use the gold though, laying down 1 kg bricks. A single 1 oz coin can cover a decent sized room in gold leaf.

武汉一商场用200公斤纯金砖铺“金光大道”(图)

Update: China Daily covers the story: Gold road shines in Wuhan

Chinese search volume for gold continues to decline

Chinese searches for gold tracks with gold price

The Google Trends for gold are steady, with about a 50% increase during 2011. On Baidu, there was a 400% spike, and interestingly, Chinese hadn't been very interested in searching for gold until QE2 hit in late 2010.

Where are national gold reserves hidden?

A Chinese newspaper, Global Times, asks 各国黄金储备藏在哪？—Where are the gold reserves hidden?

The article discusses how many countries use the New York Federal Reserve Bank out of convenience and confidentiality, since gold trades can be conducted by moving gold from one room to another. (Die Hard 3 gave a view of this, although the rooms were labeled by country instead of number.) There is discussion of Chinese concerns over U.S. stored gold, although a source says that most of it is probably in Shanghai, Beijing and Switzerland. It mentions the risk of confiscation by the U.S., for any country using New York for storage, and that the argument coming from U.S. strategists is that European gold in New York is safe from any Russian invasion (or Soviet Union during the Cold War). It goes on to mention that the U.S. government holds gold at military bases, including Fort Knox, not at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

What follows is a generalized discussion of the run-up to the end of Bretton Woods in the 1970s, and the evolution of the gold market since then, including the central bank sales of the 1990s.

According to a Wall Street source cited in the article, China is increasing gold reserves through domestic production and also through a secret arrangement with an agent (or agents?) buying on behalf of SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange). The article also says that China Gold Group (中国黄金集团公司) says that gold supply in Beijing has been continuously tight for months. The article also discusses Russian and Indian purchases, as examples of other emerging markets diversifying into gold.

An interesting tidbit about Temasek is also included. According to a source of Global Times, Temsaek, the sovereign wealth fund of Singapore, recently started asking American MBA graduates only two questions in interviews:

1. How do you see gold?
2. What do you think will happen to the price of gold?

The article concludes with Chinese academicians talking about U.S. money printing creating seesaw instability in the currency markets and how the gold standard is unlikely to return. One researcher says this is due to practical reasons, but senior research fellow at the Bank of China, Tan Yaling, asks rhetorically, "Gold is a world concept, the American dollar an American concept, will the Americans allow the return of the world's concept?"

在这个物质的世界里，流传着形形色色令人着迷的黄金故事———全世界最大的金库建在海平面下15米的深处，据说在那里进行经济体间的黄金交易时，只需更换房间；有人说，欧洲人把众多黄金藏在美国，是因为担心俄罗斯有朝一日会“入侵欧洲”；还有人说，中国也有大部分黄金存在纽约，“这有被美国充公的危险”。凡此种种，无一不在佐证着黄金储备的神秘与重要。凯恩斯曾说，黄金作为最后的卫兵和紧急需要时的储备金，无它者能替代。虽然“金本位”那段“黄金霸权岁月”早已远去，但黄金储备在如今的金融动荡期，仍显现着至关重要的稳定器作用。世行行长佐利克日前不靠谱地提议重回金本位，多少像是在寻求一个心理安全线，而当美联储大开印钞机时，多国对黄金储备已然或惜售或悄悄增持。有金融专家甚至预言，金矿才是未来最具战略意义的稀缺资源。


　　中国的黄金都存在纽约？


　　在纽约曼哈顿下城金融区，一座具有典型文艺复兴时期宫殿风格的建筑物颇为引人注目。与周围生活气息浓郁的拿骚街和梅登街相比，这座酷似城堡的大楼更像是参观景点。但美国国旗、摄像头和门口全副武装的警察提醒人们，它显然是一处分量颇重的机构所在地。这里就是纽约联邦储备银行办公楼。它的地下5层深达海平面以下15米，藏着世界多国的黄金储备。进出这里的工作人员有的西装革履，有的衣着随便，但大多形色匆匆，且都要经过“腰牌”检查。普通人也可以参观这里，但通常要提前1至3个月预约。


　　纽约联邦储备银行被认为是目前世界最大的黄金贮藏地，保存的黄金占世界总量的1/4，大约5000至7000吨之间。而在200多年前，享有“中央银行之母”美誉的英格兰银行被认为储藏了比世界任何地方都多的黄金。但如今，这里的最大作用已经变成老英格兰银行酒吧的参观噱头。上世纪初，逐渐没落的大英帝国不断卖出黄金，迅速崛起的美国则是最大买家。二战后，美国的黄金储备已经占全球储备的2/3以上。


　　1950年至1980年期间，美国把其中的部分黄金转手倒卖给了一些欧洲国家。按黄金投资圈内人士估计，当前，美国境内仍有黄金储备近1.2万吨，其中属于美国政府的为8000多吨。一位华尔街资深对冲基金经理向《环球时报》透露，其余的3000多吨黄金约属30多个国家或国际组织，包括欧洲央行、英格兰银行等。他们从美国手中购买黄金后并未将其移出纽约的金库。


　　之所以如此多国家和国际金融机构选择纽约联邦储备银行作为官方黄金储藏地，主要是考虑交易方便。纽约是全球黄金交易中心，据说，运输安全成本和经济成本高昂的黄金在联邦储备银行是通过换房间的方式完成交易的。比如，双方交易达成后，黄金就从1584房间搬到3024房间，但没人知道这两个房间号码背后是谁。美国战略界还流传着另一种观点：欧洲国家把黄金存放在美国是因为担心“前苏联”以及现在的俄罗斯会“入侵欧洲”。


　　反倒是美国自己的黄金不都藏在这里，而是分散在美境内几处。其中，位于肯塔基州路易维尔几十英里外的诺克斯堡美军基地被认为存放着美国黄金的一半。该地区防备森严，被称为与总统“空军一号”一样的全美国最安全的地方。



　　美国的藏金故事还不止这些。一部质疑“9·11”事件真相的纪录片《“9·11”骗局》称，2001年11月1日，世贸中心废墟下找到了价值2.3亿美元的黄金。但事实上，世贸中心地下储藏着总价高达1670亿美元的黄金。该纪录片认为，美国政府已经偷偷转移了黄金。近来有一种说法称，中国央行1054吨储备黄金中的大部分也存在纽约联邦储备银行的金库中。有人提出，这有在极端情况下被美国政府“充公”的危险。一位华尔街业内人士对《环球时报》表示，中国是近7年才开始逐步储备黄金的，而且从来不想靠美国来“看管”。他认为，中国的黄金分别储藏在上海、北京以及瑞士。瑞士银行被认为有可能是更大的黄金储藏地，但没有正式报告确认此说法。瑞士的黄金储藏地之一是伯尔尼瑞士联邦政府大楼和联邦议会大厦前面广场地下深达百米的防核弹掩体。

“黄金当道”的历史将重演？


　　虽然至今讲起黄金的故事仍令人神往，但比起半世纪前金本位主导的世界，黄金的辉煌已大打折扣。世界银行行长佐利克11月8日意外提出实施改良版的金本位，虽然激起众多反对意见，但同时也令人回想起“黄金当道”的峥嵘岁月。


　　在历史上，每逢经济、金融、政治动荡时期，黄金永远是稳妥的保值工具与避险利器。正如诺贝尔文学奖得主乔治·萧伯纳在1928年的动乱与通胀时期所说：“要么相信黄金的自然稳定性，要么相信政府阁员的诚实和睿智。出于对那些绅士的了解，我建议你，只要资本主义制度存在，就应当相信黄金。”


　　在20世纪60年代末，黄金的地位达到顶峰。在金本位制下，任何一种货币的价值都以黄金来固定。1931年，欧洲金融动荡，投机者开始用英镑大量换取黄金，致使英国银行的黄金储备迅速消耗殆尽。之后的9月到10月间，这一幕又在美元身上重演，投资者将资金从美国银行搬走换成黄金，导致上千家美国银行经历储户挤兑。1971年8月初，戴高乐将军派遣法国主力战舰前往纽约港口，要求美国把法国存在纽约金库的外汇盈余以实物黄金的形式取走。之后，法国开始抛售美元。在这股浪潮下，欧洲国家纷纷要求美国政府用国库黄金兑换他们贸易盈余之后的美元储备。这个时候，美国的黄金储备从二战前的两万多吨下降至8500吨。


　　1971年8月9日，压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草来了。英国的经济代表亲自登门拜访美国财政部，要求将持有的30亿美元兑换成黄金。4天后，尼克松痛下决心，闪电般秘密召集16位制定经济政策的主要内阁成员，提出“新经济政策”，其中就包括强制关闭黄金窗口以及全面冻结物价和工资。那一年，美国政府以这样的方式宣布美元与黄金脱钩，倡导金本位的布雷顿森林体系由此瓦解。美国民间经济观察家安迪森-维金在《美元的衰落》一书中写到，在取消了金本位之后，造币厂的机器可以运转到深夜，至于美国国库里有多少黄金储备，早已经不是他们想的事情了。



　　西方经济学家凯恩斯曾形象地概括黄金在货币制度中的作用说：“黄金作为最后的卫兵和紧急需要时的储备金，还没有任何其他更好的东西可以替代它。”这句话在几十年后的今天再次显现了它的“真理本色”。美国隆隆开动的印钞机令全世界对美元的信心再度动摇，同时也显示了在此轮金融动荡期，黄金，仍在世人心中拥有绝对的分量。佐利克的“荒唐”倡议就是这种心理的体现。一位接近新加坡主权财富基金淡马锡投资公司的人士对《环球时报》说，不久前他们面试一名美国名牌商学院的MBA毕业生只问了两个问题：第一，你怎么看黄金？第二，你觉得金价会怎样？今年上半年，印度政府已经悄悄在澳大利亚收购了一个规模不小的金矿。澳新银行中国区首席经济学家刘利刚说，从长远来看，金矿才是更有战略意义的稀缺资源。

黄金争夺战悄然上演


　　对于黄金的作用，也有人持不同观点。美国华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员埃德温·杜鲁门日前在英国《金融时报》上撰文倡议，“美国政府应抛售黄金储备”，因为美政府坐拥巨额黄金储备，却没有获得任何收益，如果以当前市场价格全数出售其黄金储备，美国将每年减少150亿美元的预算赤字。


　　这个提议违背了黄金市场的一个信条，即美国将是最后一个处置其黄金储备的国家。30年来，出于各种理由，美国一直执行“非净卖出”政策。与美国不同，上世纪90年代和本世纪头10年，欧洲各国央行纷纷售出手中的黄金。不过，金融危机和主权债务危机令欧洲也开始重估黄金储备的意义。《金融时报》称，欧洲各国央行几乎完全停止了本国黄金储备的出售，为10多年来每年都会进行的大规模处置行动画上了句号。据报道，欧元区各国央行以及瑞典和瑞士央行均是《央行售金协定》(CBGA)的签约方。在截至9月26日的CBGA年度里，各签约方总共出售了6.2吨黄金，同比下降96%。这是该协定1999年签订以来最低的年售金总量，远低于2004-2005年度497吨的峰值。传统上的黄金出售国———德国和法国今年上半年也没有出售黄金储备。


　　截止到2010年2月，综合世界黄金协会、各国央行年度报表以及华尔街对冲基金的研究分析报告，在各国黄金储备中，美国约8133吨，占美联储外汇储备的70%，遥遥领先其他各国。第二位是德国约3407吨，占官方外汇储备的65%；排在第三位的是国际货币基金组织约3005吨；意大利和法国分别以2452吨和2435吨位列四和五位，都占其官方外汇储备的60%以上。中国是唯一进入“千吨集团”的新兴国家，以1054吨的储备量位列第六。但中国的黄金储备仅占央行外汇储备的1.9%，这一比例在全球110个经济体中仅高于25个国家和地区。


　　在欧洲国家惜售黄金时，新兴经济体也在想办法增加黄金储备。据调查，中国黄金集团公司的现货黄金供应在北京已经连续几个月吃紧。一位华尔街圈内人士对《环球时报》说，中国一边通过国家控股的黄金矿业公司生产并提炼高纯度黄金，一边由国家外汇管理局“安排”的代理商，以个人名义在国际市场上“秘密”收购国际标准金条。澳新银行中国区首席经济学家刘利刚认为，中国需要从战略角度考虑更优化的外汇资源配置，而且应该首先选择将实物黄金放在境内。印度和俄罗斯是最近一年来最大的黄金储备增持国。2009年10月印度购买了200吨黄金,使其黄金储备从357.5吨大幅增加到558吨。俄罗斯也通过购买国内黄金使储量增加了118.5吨，约占其国家外汇储备的6%。此外，菲律宾、哈萨克斯坦和委内瑞拉也都增持了黄金。

　　“不论增持还是惜售，背后都是对美元的信心丧失”。这是多位专家对《环球时报》表达的一致看法。中国社会科学院金融研究所金融市场室主任曹红辉说，美元的国际货币地位是打仗打出来的，背后是国际强权、是政治、是军事。之后，美元国际货币地位的维持实际上靠的是对能源的控制。但如今，美国乱印钞票导致“跷跷板”失衡。中国银行高级研究员谭雅玲也认为，美国这个最大债务国不考虑全世界的风险，导致各国心理上不稳定和不确定突出。但谈及恢复“金本位”，曹红辉说，这是缺乏常识的说法，因为黄金在全球的生产量和储量都是有限的。如果现在恢复，那么全球货币就会萎缩，经济和需求也会萎缩，造成全球经济衰退。谭雅玲表示，“金本位”回归只是一个理想的状态，美元是美国的概念，黄金是世界的概念，美国人会让世界的概念回归吗？▲(本报驻美国特派记者 吴 云 本报记者 魏 莱 钟玉华)

中国人购买黄金

H/T FOFOA

谢国忠喜欢黄金和能源股票

买房不如买黄金以及能源股

我的理财建议---我觉得现在我对能源股票、黄金我觉得比较看好。我觉得今后十年里面都是通胀型的，全世界都是通胀型的，所以这两个领域会有一定的保障，保值比较好，而且保值当中会有一定的上升空间。如果房子已经涨了三倍到四倍了，黄金的价格涨了一倍，那相对来说那黄金更有价值了。房地产是很多要自己住，而且房地产不像股票黄金，它交易也很不容易。如果房子你租出去的租金，我听到很多人都在说，我租出去的房子才这么一点钱，过了两年收回来的时候内装修又要重新装一遍，这个钱还不够，因为住户把地板什么都搞坏了，所以这个就是没有回报的。

有很多很多可能性是。 这三个我看看，也买了中国稀土。
蒙古能源 0276.HK
灵宝黄金 3330.HK
中国稀土 0769.HK

谢国忠: 美元向好 / 美元中兴

美元向好 / 美元中兴

除了利率，从2011年起，资金也将从新兴经济体流向美国。新兴经济体资产膨胀是靠一股势头得以维持的。一旦这个势头停止，投资者将会认识到， 即使考虑到其增长潜力较高，新兴经济体的资产价格仍要远远高于美国。然后，资本流动将发生逆转，和1996年至1997年发生的情况类似。美元长期疲软曾 将资本逐向新兴经济体，并使其资本市场在很长一段时期内都充满了泡沫。大多数投机者认为，泡沫将一直持续下去，然而，当美元步入牛市，灾难也就来了。很显 然，几乎每一个新兴经济体届时都将陷入危机。如果说另一轮新兴市场危机可能会在2012年出现，我对此毫不惊讶。

The cyclical bull market for the dollar may last for two to three years. It could bounce up by 20%. The dollar index may reach 100 during the period. It would be similar to the dollar’s situation in the early 1980s. The Fed raised interest rate massively to tame inflation. Even though the US economy wasn’t that strong and the fiscal deficit was large and increasing, the dollar rose substantially until the 1985 Plaza Accord. The coming dollar bull market may even be shorter.

货币的价值是相对于其他货币而言的。美国的情况并不是独一无二的。在欧洲和日本，老龄化都是影响经济的主要因素。由于这些国家较高的家庭储蓄足 以支付其巨额财政赤字，因此，其货币相对强劲。然而，未来可能并非如此。日本的财政赤字已经达到其国内生产总值的200％。欧洲国家约为100％。只要这 些赤字还能够用国内储蓄抵补，政府就可以继续增加财政赤字，并通过保持低利率来掩藏过重的财政负担。低利率必须辅之以强势货币。但是，从长期来看，强势货 币将造成经济疲软。因此，未来其收入及储蓄都将相对较低。在未来十年中，欧洲和日本可能需要通过发行货币来撑起赤字，这将导致其货币疲软。

　　老龄化是拖累币值的主要力量。恶性通货膨胀可能会散播到世界各地。由于美元长期前景不妙，这将同时不利于其他货币。在持有货币的时候，我们必须保持警惕。但是，目前不用急于将纸币变为其他形式的资产。在许多国家，股票和资产被严重高估，尤其是中国。对于被高估的资产来说，货币仍然相对便宜。但是，当泡沫破裂的时候，不要忘了将资金转成股票和房地产

Germany Demands Gold from U.S.?

Shocking if true:

Even more telling, I think, is when he reported, "The Germans have demanded all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside the United States to be returned to German soil."

He admits, "The story is not public, but details have come to me from a private source close to the action." But if I know Germans, and I don't, they are not going to sit around waiting for America to steal their gold, if indeed there is any left after the criminally incompetent Federal Reserve and Treasury encumbered thousands of tonnes of gold by leasing it out, which was immediately sold into the market by those borrowing the gold, massively depressing the price of gold (which was the whole purpose of the exercise) so that bubbling inflation in prices from the floods of money and credit coming from the Federal Reserve to finance massive, long-term deficit-spending by the federal government was effectively disguised by making gold ridiculously cheap, which made guys like me, whose familiarity with the Austrian school of economics allows us to see through this despicable scam, and we begin to accost strangers on the street in a heroic attempt to save them, and we say to them, "Buy gold now, you moron, because it will never be this cheap again! And if you don't buy gold even after being told, point-blank and right to your face, to buy gold as your only rational response to massive government incompetence and corruption that will destroy the dollar, then you are as stupid as you look! Hahaha! You're a moron! Hahaha!"

Interestingly, he adds, "The Germans have also given counsel for Dubai to demand all of their gold held in custodial accounts inside London to be returned to Dubai, where a new gold trading center will spring up. In my view, THIS IS THE BIGGEST NEWS FOR GOLD THIS ENTIRE YEAR."

Careful readers looking for "news behind the news for news you can use" will no doubt notice his use of all-capital letters with which to indicate particular emphasis, perhaps along this very line, which must be important as hell, for whatever reason, because the year is not quite half over and we already have the best news? Wow!

Then I learned that I did not even suspect that "the hidden arch-enemy for the US-UK on all matters pertaining to gold bullion is Germany." He admits that this "is not a well-known concept", letting me save a little face, although Germany is "also advising the Chinese on currency and gold matters. Can one detect some coordination?"

If true, it is big, big news. The Germans learned their lesson from the 1920s and they haven't forgotten it.