Yuan appreciation and crude oil

With Japan's failed efforts to keep the yen from appreciating, the BOJ's interest rate cut to zero having an effect measured in hours and the subsequent effect on the gold price, I thought it be worth it to take a look at the renminbi versus oil.

I have no idea whether this situation it will repeat. I used today's data for the last data point, but monthly data back to 2005. As the chart shows, it took a long time for the effects to kick in, but once the renminbi started appreciating more rapidly, oil also began a steep ascent. Using this recent data gives the appearance of an effect that does not exist, but if the race to devalue is on then it may well be that this is the start of it. Oil prices are likely to rise no matter what if nations devalue their currencies, but if there's a Chinese carry trade in oil or other commodities, there will another bubble. Also pay attention to real estate, stocks and inflation rates in China.

A condensed version is cross posted here: 人民币美元汇率和石油价格.

上海拟推出原油期货

上海市副市长屠光绍2日在第六届上海衍生品市场论坛上表示，作为上海国际金融中心建设的重要内容，在期货市场和金融衍生产品发展方面，上海将有序推出原油、汽柴油等能源化工期货品种，以及股指期货、外汇期货、股指期权、黄金ETF等金融产品。

。。。值得注意的是，屠光绍对于商品期货的推出次序问题亦作出更为细致的表述。他表示，根据意见精神，在上海期货交易所有序推出原油、汽柴油沥青等能源化工期货品种，推动形成亚太地区的原油等大宗商品价格；开发铅、白银金属类期货，以及商品指数类期货，要探索在海关特殊监管区内开展期货保税交割业务；引入境外投资者参与上海期货市场交易，同时有序推出股指期货、外汇期货，股指期权、黄金ETF等金融产品，积极培育以其为定价基准的各类衍生产品。

上海拟推出原油期货