Majority of Americans Now Oppose All Immigration

Based on socionomics and a reading of the political tea leaves, I predicted Donald Trump would take the opening presented by the immigration issue back in 2014. Now the political elites will watch in horror as Trump goes from success to greater success amid a phase change in public opinion.

Polling data has shown a trend in the direction of immigration restriction for years, but now it is seemingly appearing suddenly because the political establishment was very successful at keeping dissenting voices out of the mainstream. Polls with loaded questions and media blackouts helped keep debate on issues such as deportation out of the conversation. Additionally, instead of tightening immigration policy to match falling social mood and defuse tension, the establishment went full speed in the opposite direction, guaranteeing a massive overreaction when the change happened. They have set up the perfect conditions for "revolutionary" change on the issue.

Breitbart: Poll: 61 Percent Say Immigration ‘Jeopardizes the United States’
The poll, commissioned by A.T. Kearney, a global management consulting firm, found that 61 percent of Americans agreed with the statement, “continued immigration into the country jeopardizes the United States.”

A.T. Kearney’s poll of 2,590 Americans, according to Bloomberg, was conducted last October and November by research company NPD Group and is slated for release later this month.

As Bloomberg detailed, the view that immigration jeopardizes America was pervasive across age groups but highest among baby boomers, 65 percent of whom agreed with the statement. Millennials were the least likely age group to hold that view but still a majority, 55 percent, agreed “continued immigration into the country jeopardizes the United States.”

Bloomberg: Americans Really Don't Like Immigration, New Survey Finds
The A.T. Kearney survey seems to show more negativity toward immigration than other recent surveys, although it's hard to tell because each one uses its own question wording. A Pew Research Center study conducted in August through October found that 53 percent of respondents thought immigration strengthened the U.S. vs. 38 percent who thought it burdened the U.S. In a Gallup Poll in June, 34 percent of respondents favored a decrease in immigration, 25 percent favored an increase, and 40 percent favored keeping it at current levels.
Immigration polls are generally worded to achieve a pro-immigration result, such as asking an open ended question like "Do You Favor Immigration Reform?" where reform could mean anything to the respondent, but is presented in reports as amnesty for illegal aliens. Deeper surveys with more questions almost always found a majority favored some degree of immigration restriction.

At this point, "the establishment" is still making the same mistakes, thinking there is a way to win (preserve mass immigration). There is not yet the recognition that it probably will have to give up a lot on the issue to salvage its agenda in other areas. For example, Trump's biggest threat is not on immigration, but on trade policy. In order to stop Trump and avoid a negative outcome on trade, the establishment should offer even greater immigration restrictions.

Meanwhile, Trump may not be finished tacking towards restriction: Donald Trump Vows to ‘Get Immigration Numbers Under Control’
“Record rates of immigration have produced lower wages and higher unemployment for U.S. workers. Pew polling shows 83 percent of all voters — Democrats, Republicans and Independents — think immigration should be frozen or reduced,” Trump stated in a campaign press release on Monday evening.

The biggest beneficiaries of allowing fewer foreign workers into our country would be minority workers, including all immigrants now living here, who are competing for jobs, benefits and community resources against record waves of foreign workers. Limiting job competition would reopen pathways to middle-class stability and shrink welfare rolls. In addition, it would relieve overcrowding in our schools and hospitals that afflict our poorest communities. Yet, Senators Cruz and Rubio have led the charge for even higher immigration rates — a policy supported by only 7 percent of the Republican electorate. When I am President we will listen to the people — not the special interests — and get immigration numbers under control, as the voters have demanded.
As I said in summer 2014: Immigration Issue Set to Explode in America; Prepare for Political Volatility. The last line:
UKIP was a distant warning shot. The defeat of Eric Cantor was a much closer shot. Few if any politicians have stepped up to advocate an immigration restriction policy. They have nearly all taken the easy road of bashing President Obama for inaction. This leaves an opening for an ambitious politician.
The link goes to Donald Trump.

To this day the pundits are in near unison saying they don't understand what is happening, and most politicians don't get it either, believing it to be some sort of generalized anger. The best they can come up with is a shallow analysis: the public is angry and wants an outsider. The plan to stop Trump seems to be based on the idea that Trump is the problem, rather than the vast gap between what the leaders and the public want. The situation is not confined to the U.S. either, Germany is now at risk of significant political volatility as is France, where there is already open discussion of strategic voting to deny National Front a victory.

Although it isn't stated as such, the plan of the political establishment is the same as the central banks: buy enough time until the recovery comes. Hope is a great thing, but is it not a strategy.

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