Support Bounces

Apple at 200-day. FDX, BTC. Many more, but some big ones. Anecdotally, fear peaked among the dumb money. My guess is most bulls sold out over the past few days, if not this morning. I doubt many bought today's dip, which was likely driven by short covering. Buying will come later, if at all, setting up the next mvoe lower. Nothing has been solved with respect to inflation or the Federal Reserve's policies. As with omicron, Russia is a distraction. The market is rallying today for technical reasons. Bulls will buy into bullshit narratives like this one: Is This a Crisis to Buy? Financial media will be out saying peak fear is the time to buy...not reminding people that Russia has zero do with this decline. The whole way down they will make up new narratives post hoc.

What have bonds done? Some have been pummeled, but there ZB sits right near its long-term support.

The bond market remains the main event. Things are taking more time to develop, but the inflation/deflation resolution is still an open question in my mind. Rate hike expectations did fall today, helping the Nasdaq lead.

The smart move for a bull was selling everything on December 31. Or convert their entire portfolio to commodities and related investments. The bear market is the slow process of bulls realizing they are in a losing position that is growing weaker over time.

Finally, bear markets destroy the financial sector. There hasn't been a real bear market since the 1970s. Stimulus has pumped money in every time. Technology made it easier to trade. A lot of people are trading and day-trading in the markets because its "the place to be." At the depths of the bear market, being a stock trader or day trader will be like telling someone you trade something like potting soil. The attention the markets receive, the amount of money trading every day, is itself a symptom of the credit bubble and bull market. A real bear market will grind most traders into dust. Bulls will give up years of gains.

For now, everyone still thinks this is some type of correction like has happened several times over the past decade. I believe a real bear market is underway, and that stocks are going to be making a new low next month. For myself, I closed out almost all my positions today. Which might be a contrarian signal! But most of my options are short-term and I don't want to sit through an extended rally. There are gaps above that will be prime spots for going short again.